EVALUATION OF GREAT LAKES NET BASIN SUPPLY FORECASTS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL's) physically-based monthly net basin supply forecast method reveals component errors and the effects of model improvements for use on the Laurentian Great Lakes. While designed for probabilistic outlooks, it is assessed for giving deterministic outlooks along with other net basin supply forecast methods of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada, and with a stochastic approach commissioned by the Corps. The methods are compared to a simple clima-tological forecast and to actual time series of net basin supplies. Aetual net basin supplies are currently determined by estimating all components directly, instead of as water-balance residuals. This is judged more accurate and appropriate for both forecasting and simulation. GLERL's physically-based method forecasts component supplies while the other methods are based on residual supplies. These other methods should be rederived to be based on component supplies. For each of these other methods, differences between their outlooks and residual supplies are used as error estimates for the rederived methods and component supplies. The evaluations are made over a recent period of record high levels followed by a record drought. Net basin supply outlooks are better than climatology, and GLERL's physically-based method performs best with regard to either component or residual net basin supplies. Until advances are made in long-range climate outlooks, deterministic supply outlooks cannot be improved significantly.     

MATERIALS INPUT OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN: A SYNOPTIC APPRAISAL1

ABSTRACT: The complex morphometry of Lake Champlain requires that detailed, regional studies be made, and the results integrated, to yield total lake conditions. Using specific conductance measurements, and values of total dissolved solids calculated from them, we present an approach to assessing the materials budget of the lake. The sampling program involved inventorying all 319 tributaries, determining the watershed area for each, and dividing the Champlain basin into appropriate hydrographic regions. Data were obtained from samples collected from 41 selected streams (representing 97.5% of the annual water input), sampling occurring in all seasons of the year since 1970. Results indicate that over one million metric tonnes of total dissolved solids enter Lake Champlain annually, about two-thirds (63%) from the eastern (Vermont) portion and almost one-fourth (22%) from the western (New York) part of the drainage basin, the remainder (15%) entering from the south end. Of the total quantity added annually, 17.4% is retained in the lake, indicating that a solids build-up is occurring, at a significant rate. We suggest that specific conductance, and therefore total dissolved solids, be utilized as a convenient indicator of water quality conditions, and results applied to permit more efficient watershed management.     

ESTIMATING EVAPORATION FROM UTAH'S GREAT SALT LAKE USING THERMAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Water surface temperatures can be obtained from satellite thermal remote sensing. Landsat and other satellites sense emitted thermal infrared radiation on a regular basis over much of the earth's surface. Evaporation is accomplished by the net transport of mass from the water surface to the atmosphere. The evaporative transfer predominantly determines the water surface temperature. Hence, there should be good correlations between evaporation and surface temperatures. Previous investigations on Utah Lake with satellite-derived temperatures and pan- and model-derived evaporation values have produced good correlations. However, more study was required with additional satellite data and evaporation measurements for saltwater conditions. The applicability of this method for estimating evaporation on Utah's Great Salt Lake was of particular interest at this time because of the unprecedented rise of this terminal lake. Satellite thermal data and evaporation data from four different years were obtained for the Great Salt Lake and the surrounding region. More than 350 correlation and linear regression analyses were performed on the temperature and evaporation data. The lake salt concentrations were also factored into the analyses in several different ways. The correlation results were generally very good and a methodology for using satellite-derived water surface temperatures along with salt concentrations was developed to estimate evaporation.     

OPTIMAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE EXPANSION OF AN EXISTING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS1

The study of the optimal expansion of existing water resources systems is of continuing importance because of the rising demand and limited supply of water in many areas of the world, particularly in the southwestern part of the United States of America. This study is concerned with the investigation of the optimal expansion of a realistic water resources system to meet an increasing demand for municipal and industrial use, irrigation, energy, and recreation over a planning horizon of T years. A number of possible dam sites are available for the further regulation of river (canal) flows in the basin and/or the regulation of imported waters into the basin. To maximize, over the set of alternative projects, the sum of discounted present value of net earnings subject to the demands and various institutional, physical and budgetary limits, an optimization problem (Problem I) was formed as a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem and was decomposed into the set of all feasible combinations (Problem II). The economic return was determined for each combination (Problem III). Problem II was solved by a branch and bound procedure which selected each feasible combination of dams while the optimal return for each such combination (Problem III) was found by a network analysis code.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

基于流域视角的水环境综合治理规划研究——以江苏省淀山湖为例

以流域为单元进行水资源综合规划和管理是实现水环境改善的重要途径。本文以太湖流域第二大省界湖泊—淀山湖为例,在综合分析流域水环境质量基础上,利用GIS 分析工具划分流域治理片区并制定分区管控策略。根据流域所含骨干河流流向、骨干河流与淀山湖交汇特点、上中下游不同河段及镇域行政边界,将淀山湖流域分为吴淞江流域、千灯浦- 淀山湖流域、昆南湖荡流域、元荡湖荡流域、太浦河流域五大片区138 个子评价单元。通过水环境容量与压力两类空间叠加分析,构建形成污染重点减排区、污染综合治理区、产业绿色化提升区、生态环境保育区等四个类型区域,并提出差异化的产业准入和环境治理措施。本研究不仅为以流域为治理单元的水环境治理规划提供了较为可行的技术体系,而且为太湖流域水环境综合整治思路创新提供了可借鉴的案例。     

Regional economic impacts of water management alternatives: the case of Devils Lake,North Dakota,USA

Devils Lake, located in a closed basin in northeastern North Dakota has over a century-long history of highly fluctuating water levels. The lake has risen nearly 25 feet (7.7 m) since 1993, more than doubling its surface area. Rising water levels have affected rural lands, transportation routes, and communities near the lake. In response to rising lake levels, Federal, state and local agencies have adopted a three-part approach to flood damage reduction, consisting of (1) upper basin water management to reduce the amount of water reaching the lake, (2) protection for structures and infrastructure if the lake continues to rise, and (3) developing an emergency outlet to release some lake water. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the net regional economic effects of a proposed emergency outlet for Devils Lake. An input-output model was used to estimate the regional economic effects of the outlet, under two scenarios: (1) the most likely future situation (MLS) and (2) a best case situation (BCS) (i.e., where the benefits from the outlet would be greatest), albeit an unlikely one. Regional economic effects of the outlet include effects on transportation (road and railroad construction), agriculture (land kept in production, returned to production sooner, or kept in production longer), residential relocations, and outlet construction expenditures. Effects are measured as changes in gross business volume (gross receipts) for various sectors, secondary employment, and local tax collections. The net regional economic effects of the proposed outlet would be relatively small, and consideration of these economic impacts would not strengthen the case for an outlet.     

Water Appropriation Systems for Adapting to Water Shortages in Iraq

Climate variability and population growth have intensified the search internationally for measures to adapt to fluctuations in water supplies. An example can be found in the lower part of the transboundary Tigris‐Euphrates Basin where water shortages in 2008‐2009 resulted in high economic costs to irrigation farmers. Losses to irrigators in the lower basin have made a compelling case to identify flexible methods to adapt to water shortage. Few published studies have systematically examined ways to enhance the flexibility of water appropriation systems to adapt to water shortage. This article addresses an ongoing challenge in water governance by examining how profitability at both the farm and basin levels is affected by various water appropriation systems. Four water appropriation systems are compared for impacts on farm income under each of three water supply scenarios. Results show that a (1) proportional sharing of water shortages among provinces and (2) unrestricted water trading rank as the top two appropriation systems. The shadow price of water for irrigation rises from zero at a full water supply level to US$93/1,000 m³ when supply falls to 20% of full levels. Similar methods could be used to analyze challenges facing the design or implementation of water appropriation systems in the world's irrigated regions.     

Longitudinal‐Vertical Hydrodynamic and Turbidity Simulations for Prediction of Dam Reconstruction Effects in Asian Monsoon Area1

Abstract: This research investigates possible impacts of enlarged water body according to dam reconstruction on the hydrodynamics and water quality of the reservoir using a laterally averaged, two‐dimensional hydrodynamic and transport model, CE‐QUAL‐W2. The lake was formed by the artificial dam in 1983 for agricultural water supply and is currently under consideration of reconstruction so as to expand the volume of reservoir for flood control as well as water supply in downstream areas. To calibrate and validate the model, field‐collected data were compared with model predictions for water level fluctuations and water temperature during the years of 2001 (from January to December) and 2003 (from March to November). The model results showed a good agreement with field measurements both in calibration and verification. Utilizing the model, impacts of dam reconstruction on the thermal hydrodynamics and turbid current were predicted. From the model results, dam reconstruction limited the depth of thermal stratification below 10 meter and formed steep temperature gradient between epilimnion and hypolimnion. The restricted thermal stratification persisted up to the end of September. This result indicated that thermal stratification would become stronger during summer and stay longer after dam reconstruction. In addition, the restricted thermal stratification caused vertical circulation of water mixing lower than 10 meter and isolated the upper water layer from the lower water layer which increased the volume of hypolimnetic water with low temperature. The vertical circulation near the surface also mitigated propagation of density plume within the depth of 10 m which would remain the hypolimnetic water clean.     

LINEAR PROGRAMMING USE FOR EVALUATING WATER RESOURCES AND COST AND BENEFIT ALLOCATION1

ABSTRACT A linear programming model for a river basin was developed to include almost all water-related economic activity both for consumers and producers. The model was so designated that the entire basin or basin sub-division could be analyzed. The model included seven sectors, nine objective function criteria, and three river-flow levels. Economic basis for conflicts among sectors over incidence of cost allocation and level of economic activity can be traced to some chosen objective. The disposal of untreated household waste water, particularly from the rural household, directly into the river was consistent with maximizing net benefits and minimizing costs. The optimum resource allocation, water-treatment plants, farms and industry activities would change with flow level. For each of the three industries analyzed separately, paper, wool and tanning, public treatment of industrial waste water was the optimal treatment process in one or more of the solutions. Lake shoreline was the dominant feature determining lake-resource valuation. Implied capital value varied from $126 per shoreline foot to over $250 depending on discount rate. Implied prices on lake surface ranged from $42 to $147 per acre. Strong economic forces encouraged small lot sizes for vacation cottages.     

CONSERVATIONAL WATER PRICING FOR INCREASED WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: A study was undertaken to see if benefits from water supply could be increased by utilizing price-usage information in reservoir design studies. Three pricing policies were examined. The first policy assumed no price-use relationship, and quantity demanded was based on existing community usage with a low water rate. The price of water was set to recover system costs. A price-use relationship was assumed in the second policy and the water rate was constant. The price of water was determined from the associated system which provided maximum expected net benefits. The third policy assumed the price-use relationship and the price charged for water during each billing period was a non-linear function of storage which increased as the amount of water in storage at the beginning of the period decreased. It was found that the use of the conservation pricing policies substantially reduced storage requirements while providing demonstrable net benefits to the community and a large average supply. The conservation pricing policies substantially lowered the average price paid for water. The effect of uncertainty in consumer response to changes in price was studied by using a probabilistic price-use relationship. This uncertainty did not significantly reduce the effectiveness of the conservation policy. It was concluded that demand management by the use of a proper pricing policy could significantly increase net water supply benefits to a community.     

PERCEPTION OF WATER QUALITY BY SELECT RESPONDENT GROUPINGS IN INLAND WATER-BASED RECREATIONAL ENVIRONMENTS1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines four lake environments which are paired by lake size and by trophic state, where trophic state is employed as an identifier of water quality. Two large lakes and two intermediate-sized lakes, with each pair having one oligotrophic lake and one eutrophic lake are selected for cross-sectional survey-oriented questionnaire research. This paper focuses upon one aspect of the research, namely, the perception of water quality by three user groups. The user groups examined are recreationists, cottage and homeowners, and fishermen. The groups are compared utilizing percentage response profiles and cluster level groupings. It appears from a preliminary analysis of the data that the lakes selected are viable trophic state endpoints for questionnaire analysis of respondents. Each user group surveyed does appear sensitive to select water quality parameters; where shifts in sensitivity appear within and between user groups with changes in ecological settings, as well as with factors independent of ecological settings.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER-SAVING TECHNIQUES IN IRAN1

ABSTRACT: The possibility of increasing the water supply for irrigation through adoption of more efficient water-application techniques as an alternative to new irrigation projects was studied in an irrigated region of Iran. Excessive water application at the farm level ranks high among the causes of water shortages in the selected region. An empirical analysis of the effect of water-saving technology on the farm operator's net return was made choosing two farms in the region as a case study. The problems facing these farms are common to most farms throughout the country. The results of the budgeting analysis of the selected farms indicated that an improvement in irrigation technique can result in the expansion of water supply and higher marginal value product for water. Comparing the costs of irrigation systems with the net returns resulting from the higher efficiency showed that such an investment is economically feasible.     

PROBABILISTIC GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY OUTLOOKS1

ABSTRACT: The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory developed a semiautomatic software package for making hydrological outlooks for the Great Lakes. These include basin moisture storages, basin runoff, lake heat storage, lake evaporation, heat fluxes, and net lake supplies, one or more full months into the future. The package combines GLERL's rainfall-runoff and lake evaporation models with near real-time data reduction techniques to represent current system states. Users select historical meteorologic record segments as candidate future scenarios to generate deterministic near real-time hydrological outlooks. GLERL has extended the package to make probabilistic outlooks for a decision-maker who must estimate the risk associated with his decisions. GLERL matches National Weather Service meteorologic outlook probabilities by selecting groups of historical meteorologic sequences, and constructs embedded outlook intervals for each hydrologic variable of interest. Interval probabilities are assigned from comparisons over a recent evaluation period. This physically-based approach for generating outlooks offers the ability, as compared to other statistically-based approaches, to incorporate improvements in the understanding, of process dynamics as they occur in the future and to respond reasonably to conditions initial to a forecast (such as heat and moisture storages), not observed in the past.     

THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DUAL PURPOSE NUCLEAR DESALINATION OF GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of a large scale dual purpose (desalting water and power production) facility were evaluated. Although a site in the Tularosa basin of southern New Mexico was chosen as a case study for this analysis, it is believed that the approach and consequential results would be applicable to alternative sites in the Southwest. The basic project evaluated included: a) a ground water well field; b) a dual purpose, nuclear, desalination plant; c) a mineral recovery plant; and d) a reservoir for recreation and irrigation storage. Principle project outputs included electrical power, minerals, recreation, and water for either irrigated agricultural production or export to an adjoining river basin. Two alternative project designs were developed for detailed analysis. The first alternative encompassed all major project components. The results, in discounted net values used to assess the feasibility of the project, were essentially negative; that is, values were less than zero for full scale development. The net benefits ranged from $-986.57 million at a 5 percent discount rate, to $-1,137.528 million at a discount rate of 10 percent. In the second alternative, exportation of the desalted water from the Tularosa basin to two adjacent rivers was analyzed with somewhat better net benefits, ranging from $-382,527 million to $-478,612 million at the 5 and 10 percent discount rates.     

Thermal performance of ice-making machine with a multi-channel evaporator

An experimental investigation is presented in this paper on the vapor compression refrigeration cycle used in an ice-making machine with a multi-channel evaporator. To study the operation performance of the refrigeration system in the ice-making machine, the fluid temperature distribution in multi-channel evaporating coils are tested and the dynamic variations in each cooling loop are investigated during the ice-generating phase. The results show that the external cooling loops have the largest temperature fluctuations caused by the large initial refrigerant injecting mass flow and the external environmental disturbances. For the inner cooling loops, the related temperature profiles of different test points have relative stable variations. To reduce the temperature fluctuations of the outside loops, it is suggested to reduce the initial refrigerant mass flow and adjust the initial opening of the thermal expansion valve. Moreover, it is the normal phenomenon for the slight temperature variations for the temperature curves of different test points, caused by the adjustment of thermal expansion valve. During the ice-making process, both the sensible heat removal phase and latent heat removal phase are experienced successively. To remove the sensible heat of water, the refrigerant system is operating in high efficiency with test points having a rapid linear temperature reduction. While for eliminating the latent heat of ice, it requires much more power supply, the relating test points have a temperature decrease with fluctuations. To improve the operation performance of ice machine, some suggestions and improvements are proposed.     

ANALYSIS OF FIRM WATER SUPPLY UNDER COMPLEX INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS1

River basin computer simulation studies often do not properly include the complex legal and institutional factors governing water allocation. These factors include formal water rights and informal borrowing agreements among the basin water users. An attempt has been made in this study to show that such factors can be included. We also show that an optimal, integrated approach to reservoir operations in a river basin can do much to alleviate the burden of new demands placed on available water resources. The procurement of a firm water supply for a proposed coal fired power plant is analyzed as a case study. An efficient river basin simulation model is used to determine the viability of a scheme for providing an annual firm water supply to the plant, with consideration of the existing water storage and demands within the basin. Given the hydrologic sequence considered, the model results show that the proposed strategy is viable in that the required firm water supply can be realized without causing harm to decreed water users in the basin. However, integrated diversion and reservoir operations are required to assure a desirable uniform rate of delivery of reusable effluent to the power plant.     

VALUING URBAN WATER ACQUISITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Municipalities typically seek additional water supplies whenever prospective population and economic growth suggests the inadequacy of currently available water supply. The benefit of supply enhancement is usually construed as avoiding debilitating water scarcity. A more effective approach to planning is to compare the benefits and costs of supply augmentation. The net present value of benefits for a supply increase in a representative Texas community is calculated for alternative scenarios relating to population growth, rate growth, and the temporal distribution of the increased supply. Consumer surplus measures are sensitive to all three of these factors and vary from $0 to over $4000 per acre-foot. A notable finding is that the added supply may offer zero values in cases where real water prices increase at an annualized rate of 4 percent (or greater) which is half the rate occurring in Texas from 1981–1985.     

USING CONTINGENT VALUATION AND BENEFIT TRANSFER TO EVALUATE WATER SUPPLY IMPROVEMENT BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: Many water systems in small cities and rural areas throughout the United States are facing water quality and supply problems. These problems are typically not the result of an unexpected event, but are the result of growth trends or decreasing water quality experienced over several years. This analysis uses the contingent valuation and benefit transfer methods to evaluate the willingness to pay for a rural water system in northcentral Montana. Both of the procedures resulted in similar values, ranging from about $4.05 to $7.50 per household per month for urban residents and $5.40 to $11.50 per household per month for rural residents, which is equal to 11 percent to 23 percent of current average water costs. The willingness to pay estimates do not include non-household water users. This analysis shows that useful planning information can be obtained from relatively inexpensive contingent valuation mail survey data and the benefit transfer method as long as the limitations of the data are understood. The willingness to pay for ensuring good quality rural water supplies in the future is likely to be low compared to the costs of extensive diversion and treatment systems. Willingness to pay estimates provide decision makers with information that can be used to avoid building a large water supply system that water users do not want to connect to because of high costs.     

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES FOR IRRIGATION IN EAST JORDAN1

The paper describes an approach towards optimal allocation of surface and ground water resources to three agricultural areas in the Jordan Valley under conditions of scarce water supply. The optimizing model allocates water from three main rivers, each with reservoir storage, and from two ground water sources to three irrigation regions. Productivity of irrigation water, expressed as the net present value of the regional agricultural output, but allowing for crop water deficits, is first maximized using nonlinear programming. The allocation process then adopts techniques of linear programming to determine the least cost alternative based on the unit cost of water from each resource at each destination, as it varies with time.