Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe

The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematically compare the planning and ex-ante evaluation processes for five EU countries (respectively Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The comparative analysis consists of a qualitative comparison of (1) the governance of long-term policy planning and evaluation processes, (2) the national arrangement for quantitative (model-based) ex-ante policy evaluation and (3) the national arrangement for qualitative ex-ante policy evaluation (stakeholder participation). In a second step we conduct a quantitative comparison of national model-based ex-ante evaluation studies to assess the relative differences between the considered routes and the differences across the various countries. Although the five Member States plan policies along the same EU objective, we find a high diversity in how long-term commitments are established, governed and evaluated on the national level. Model-based scenario analyses are commonly used to explore and evaluate the possible national routes towards the EU 2050 objective. However, as these processes mostly concentrate on domestic action, they pay little attention to how domestic policies are affected by, or affecting, other international activities throughout Europe. Hence, current findings suggest that cross-border collaboration and stakeholder participation could further strengthen the analytical understanding of required transformative change in Europe and subsequently lead to a more durable long-term solution over time.     

White certificates and domestic offset schemes: possible synergies

Next to energy efficiency, in the context of GHG reductions, additional policy mechanisms to the incumbent EU Emissions Trading scheme (EU ETS) are discussed. Such is the case of Non-ETS Domestic Offset (DO) schemes, which can reduce CO₂-eq.emissions in the non-ETS sectors and trade these as CO₂ credits on the ETS market. Taking into account that the EU’s “Linking Directive” (EC 2004) creates the conditions to use credits generated by emission reduction projects certified by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol (KP) within the EU ETS market, in this paper we employ the institutional analysis method of interactions in order to provide insight of a combined White Certificates (WhC) and DOs cheme. Special attention is paid to the parameters that seem to hamper harmonization of WhC and DO. Aim of this paper is to discuss whether smart market- based instruments, such as WhC, can be complementary to the effectiveness of mechanisms fostering energy efficiency such as DOs projects and vice versa. In this respect, the potential combined scheme is assessed (ex-ante) with the help of standard criteria that refer to the triptych energy, environment & society. Given the outcome of the study made, it is fair to say that such a DO/WhC combined scheme could be selected if the additionality concern is to minimize short term social costs of reaching a certain goal. However recent information and research conducted so far cannot yet uphold an ambition that a WhC/DO scheme of this kind could also drive technical change, keep consumer costs down and be equitable.     

Fairness aspects of linking the European emissions trading scheme under a long-term stabilization scenario for CO2 concentration

Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO₂ permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.

杭州市城市生活垃圾处理主要温室气体及VOCs排放特征

为了解城市生活垃圾处理过程中主要温室气体及VOCs排放的变化特征,基于《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》《浙江省市县温室气体清单编制指南》和《大气挥发性有机物源排放清单编制技术指南》推荐的方法,估算了2005-2016年杭州市生活垃圾处理主要温室气体及VOCs排放量.结果表明:2005-2016年杭州市生活垃圾处理过程中温室气体排放占绝对主导地位,VOCs排放只占极少一部分.杭州市生活垃圾处理主要温室气体和VOCs排放量总体上呈上升趋势,与2005年相比,2016年杭州市生活垃圾处理主要温室气体排放量增长了68.8%,VOCs排放量增长了134.0%.从生活垃圾处理方式来看,杭州市生活垃圾填埋处理的温室气体排放量远高于焚烧处理方式,但填埋处理的VOCs排放量却低于焚烧处理方式（2007年和2008年除外）.杭州市生活垃圾填埋处理和焚烧处理的温室气体排放强度分别为0.72~0.86、0.18~0.23.从排放贡献和排放强度来看,采用填埋处理方式有利于减少垃圾处理过程中VOCs的排放,而采用焚烧处理方式更有利于温室气体的减排.随着人均生活垃圾产生量的上升,无论是温室气体还是VOCs,杭州市人均垃圾处理排放量总体呈现稳步上升的态势.研究显示,深入垃圾分类回收、控制人均生活垃圾产生量、优化垃圾焚烧处理方式,可以实现生活垃圾处理主要温室气体和VOCs的协同减排.      

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in European conventional and organic dairy farming

Dairy farming is the largest agricultural source of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) in Europe. A whole-farm modeling approach was used to investigate promising mitigation measures. The effects of potential mitigation measures were modeled to obtain estimates of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from representative dairy model farms in five European regions. The potential to reduce farm GHG emissions was calculated per kg milk to compare organic and conventional production systems and to investigate region and system specific differences. An optimized lifetime efficiency of dairy cows reduced GHG emissions by up to 13% compared to baseline model farms. The evaluation of frequent removal of manure from animal housing into outside covered storage reduced farm GHG emissions by up to 7.1%. Scraping of fouled surfaces per se was not an effective option since the reduction in GHG emissions from animal housing was more than out-weighed by increased emissions from the storage and after field application. Manure application by trail hose and injection, respectively, was found to reduce farm GHG emissions on average by 0.7 and 3.2% compared to broadcasting. The calculated model scenarios for anaerobic digestion demonstrated that biogas production could be a very efficient and cost-effective option to reduce GHG emissions. The efficiency of this mitigation measure depends on the amount and quality of organic matter used for co-digestion, and how much of the thermal energy produced is exploited. A reduction of GHG emissions by up to 96% was observed when all thermal energy produced was used to substitute fossil fuels. Potential measures and strategies were scaled up to the level of European regions to estimate their overall mitigation potential. The mitigation potential of different strategies based on a combination of measures ranged from −25 up to −105% compared to baseline model farms. A full implementation of the most effective strategy could result in a total GHG emission reduction of about 50 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalents per year for conventional dairy farms of EU(15) comparable to the defined model farms.     

The globalization of the carbon market: Welfare and competitiveness effects of linking emissions trading schemes

In the light of the prevailing goal to keep global temperature increase below 2° and recent challenges to reach a global climate agreement in the near term, linking emissions trading schemes has emerged as a prominent complementing policy option. To this end, we explicitly assess (1) the macroeconomic welfare impacts and (2) the trade-based competitiveness effects of linking the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme in the year 2020. A stylized partial market analysis suggests that, independently of regional cost characteristics, the integration of emissions trading schemes (ETS) yields economic welfare gains for all participating regions. A computable general equilibrium analysis confirms these findings at the macroeconomic level: The economic efficiency losses from emissions regulation are diminished for both EU Member States and non-EU regions by linking ETS. However, the quantitative analysis suggests opposite trade-based incentives for linking up: while EU Member States improve their terms of trade by integrating with emerging ETS, non-EU linking candidates face competitiveness losses by linking. We conclude that, for non-EU regions, the attractiveness of linking ETS is a matter of priorities for economic welfare or international competitiveness. If these priorities are hierarchized in favor of welfare, the globalization of the carbon market could become a promising policy option complementing the efforts to reach a global climate agreement in 2015.     

建设项目温室气体环境影响评价方法研究

建立完善的、减污降碳相协同的管理制度是支撑全国碳排放高质量达峰的重要保障,有效控制新增碳排放是推动实现重点行业尽早达峰的关键. 环境影响评价是我国源头防控的基础性制度,将温室气体管控要求纳入其中是现阶段推动减污降碳协同增效的可行途径及重要抓手. 综合考虑国内外管理实践经验以及我国制度特点与管理需求,开展了温室气体环境影响评价技术方法研究. 本文提出了系统性、全过程、协同性的三大温室气体评价基本原则,识别建设项目温室气体环境影响评价的主要影响因素,构建了强调高效、低碳、循环的温室气体环境影响评价指标体系,建立了包含项目分析与判断、影响因素识别、影响预测与技术分析、综合环境影响评价的评价方法体系. 基于该方法,以山东省250万吨电解铝产能转移至云南省项目为例,开展碳排放环境影响评价分析,测算结果表明:若不考虑项目对云南省对外输电的影响,全国CO₂减排量可达2 574.4×104 t;如考虑项目对跨区输电的影响,则全国CO₂净减排量将减至968.3×104 t;进一步考虑技术升级、地方煤炭消费政策等因素影响,还会得到差异明显的评价结果. 研究显示,考虑不同评价目标、评价边界和影响因素可能会对全社会碳排放量环境影响评价结果产生显著影响,由此建议在开展相关评价时应立足实际需求,合理确定评价目标和边界.      

上海迎世博轨道交通快速发展的碳减排效益

为研究2007年以来上海轨道交通建设提速带来的温室气体减排效益,对上海市内出行结构与碳排放量历年变化进行了分析,并进一步采用情景分析法,对实际情景(轨道交通加速发展)与基准情景(轨道交通常速发展)下市内出行碳排放进行了对比.结果表明,2007年以来轨道交通吸收了全市客运增长量的50%,不仅缓解了个体机动车迅速增长带来的拥堵和污染等问题,也使得整个上海市内客运交通在客运量迅速攀升的同时,碳排放总量增长速度却有了明显放缓.与基准情景相比,2007年1月初至2010年10月底世博会结束这段时期内,实际情景下上海轨道交通的快速发展使市内出行碳排放总量相对减排了78.9万tCO2当量.     

道路机动车温室气体排放评估与情景分析:以北京市为例

基于LEAP模型（long-range energy alternatives planning system）评估北京市历史阶段（2000—2018年）道路机动车温室气体排放量的变化规律,并设置5种情景预测未来阶段（2019—2030年）机动车保有量、能源需求、温室气体排放量的发展趋势,探究达峰年份,寻求最优发展路径。结果显示:未来北京市机动车保有量仍将持续增长,但平均年增长率降低至1.63%。机动车温室气体排放总量已于2013年达峰,峰值为21758563 t CO_2e,对应能源消耗量为306383 TJ,未来所有情景下机动车温室气体排放量均呈不同程度下降。单一措施中提高机动车燃料经济性的减排效果最佳,综合3种减排措施的ODS情景（最优发展情景）是最优发展路径。     

Linkages between the energy and agricultural sectors: insights from European Union greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios

Over the past decade, the relationship between agricultural and energy markets has strengthened. Traditional energy sources have been increasingly replaced by energy from biomass, and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Consequently, an assessment of the efficiency of bioenergy policies requires a comprehensive analysis of both agricultural and energy markets. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of two detailed European Union (EU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation policies on the utilization of biomass for energy production and the implications for agricultural prices and trade. The consequences of a policy-induced shift from consumption of fossil to renewable energy are assessed under full consideration of interrelations between the energy and agricultural sectors. To this end, we combine an energy system model and an agricultural sector model by establishing a consistent interface between them. Depending on the ambition of the GHG emission reduction scenarios, the results indicate significant price increases. Furthermore, the increase in European demand for energy crops is to a substantial degree covered by additional imports. These results highlight that GHG emission mitigation policies enacted in a large economy like the EU cannot be considered without accounting for indirect effects in the rest of the world. They put the efficiency and also the effectiveness of such policies in general into question.     

广东电力生产的温室气体排放趋势和演变特征

通过文献调研收集广东电力生产最新的能源消费数据和排放因子,采用“自上而下”方法估算1995—2011年广东电力行业的直接和间接GHG(温室气体)排放量,量化直接排放量的不确定性,绘制GHG排放流向图,并且根据GHG排放特征提出减排建议. 结果表明:①虽然受经济、环境和能源政策的影响,与1995年相比,2011年广东电力生产的GHG总排放量仍增长438%,达3.44×108 t,其中直接排放量达2.78×108 t,不确定性为±11%. ②从发电能源结构角度考虑,燃煤发电是电力生产的最大GHG排放源,2011年其排放量占总排放量的76%;而从用电终端考虑,工业用电是最大的GHG排放源,2011年其排放量占电力生产GHG总排放量的66%. ③1995—2011年,用电终端总体电力GHG排放强度下降了16%,居民用电人均GHG排放量上升了260%,单位综合发电量的GHG排放系数微升了1%. ④发电能源结构和终端产业结构的低碳化以及控制居民用电的GHG排放量等措施可减排2011年广东电力生产GHG总排放量的44%.      

菌渣-发酵床废弃垫料堆肥中温室气体排放及与微生物的关系

堆肥是处理农业废弃物最适宜的技术之一,但堆肥产生的有害和温室气体排放导致环境污染问题.本研究以生猪养殖发酵床废弃垫料及菌渣为原料,利用强制通风静态堆肥技术研究垫料和菌渣不同配比及添加EM菌剂对堆肥过程温室气体排放和微生物区系的影响.结果表明,不同堆肥处理温室气体排放通量以堆肥前20 d较大,堆肥中后期降低;微生物总量和种类在不同堆肥处理间没有发生显著性变化;CO_2和N_2O排放速率与细菌、真菌和甲烷氧化菌间具有显著的正相关关系.整个堆肥期间,以菌渣为主料并添加EM菌剂的堆肥处理温室气体减排效果最佳,相对其他3个处理温室气体减排0.7%~10.2%.由此认为,以菌渣为主料和通过添加EM菌剂的堆肥方式可以作为降低菌渣-发酵床废弃垫料堆肥过程温室气体排放的策略.     

关中平原饲料作物生产的碳足迹及影响因素研究

畜牧业是主要的人为温室气体排放源,而饲料作物生产是畜牧业温室气体排放的主要来源之一.研究饲料作物生产的碳足迹及减排措施对于从日粮的角度减少畜牧业的温室气体排放至关重要.因此,本文应用生命周期评价理论和IPCC(2006)田间温室气体计算方法,建立了饲料作物碳足迹评估方法,分析了关中平原饲料作物的温室气体排放特点和减排措施及潜力.结果表明:关中平原主要饲料的碳足迹(以CO_2当量计)由大到小依次为玉米0.620、苜蓿0.382、小麦麸皮0.240、青饲玉米0.217、小麦秸秆0.083和玉米秸秆0.070 kg·kg~(-1);主要排放环节是化肥生产、氮肥田间排放和灌溉,对碳足迹的贡献率分别为26.0%~33.8%、27.8%~29.6%和24.5%~39.1%.由于关中平原存在过量施肥和大水漫灌的现象,通过化肥减施和节水灌溉措施减少饲料作物碳足迹的潜力很大,但不同措施带来的实际减排量仍需通过田间实践和具体技术的生命周期评价进行验证.     

Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we explore the constraints and barriers to implementation important for GHG mitigation in agriculture. We also examine how climate and non-climate policy in different regions of the world has affected agricultural GHG emissions in the recent past, and how it may affect emissions and mitigation implementation in the future. We examine the links between mitigation and adaptation and drives for sustainable development and the potential for agricultural GHG mitigation in the future.We describe how some countries have initiated climate and non-climate policies believed to have direct effects or synergistic effects on mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture. Global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural chemicals, to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will significantly mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture.Previous studies have shown that as less than 30% of the total biophysical potential for agricultural GHG mitigation might be achieved by 2030, due to price- and non-price-related barriers to implementation. The challenge for successful agricultural GHG mitigation will be to remove these barriers by implementing creative policies. Identifying policies that provide benefits for climate, as well as for aspects of economic, social and environmental sustainability, will be critical for ensuring that effective GHG mitigation options are widely implemented in the future.     

欧盟经济与环境关系问题浅议——基于经济发展、能源消耗与温室气体排放的统计分析

基于Eurostat New Cronos数据库提供的欧盟25个国家2003年的GDP、能源消耗与温室气体排放数据,在SAS系统下,运用描述性分析与回归分析,检测了欧盟25个国家经济发展、能源消耗与温室气体排放之间的相关性.研究表明:GDP、能源消耗和温室气体排放三者之间存在正相关性;相对经济发展的环境代价而言,欧盟新成员国的环境影响问题较欧盟15国更严重.     

连续流强制通风槽式污泥堆肥工艺的温室气体和氨气排放特征

我国污泥堆肥过程中温室气体(CH4、N2O)和氨气(NH3)排放的基础数据十分缺乏.本研究以连续流强制通风槽式污泥堆肥工艺为对象,通过现场试验和观测,考察不同操作参数下堆肥过程中温室气体和氨气的排放特征.结果表明,减小辅料投加比例不利于有机质的转化(试验组和对照组的有机质降幅分别为1.38%、8.85%),较低的C/N比虽小幅增加了氨气的排放量(高于对照组8.68%),却有助于减少总氮损失(试验组16.1%、对照组21.8%),并可减少污泥堆肥过程的温室气体排放(以eCO2/DC计,试验组为1.70 g·kg-1、对照组为2.85 g·kg-1).采用"初期降低,末期升高"的通风方式,尽管增加了污泥堆肥过程中温室气体排放的CO2当量(高于对照组55.1%),却减少了氨气累积排放量(试验组66.86 g·m-2,对照组72.04g·m-2),进而降低了总氮损失(为对照组的51.34%).     

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

中国省域农业源非CO2温室气体排放的影响因素分析与峰值预测

运用IPCC清单方法核算了中国各省(直辖市、自治区)农业源非二氧化碳(非CO₂)温室气体(GHG)的排放,基于Tapio弹性脱钩理论和情景预测法、STIRPAT模型和向量自回归模型(VAR)预测了其达峰时间和规模,并结合对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型、STIRPAT模型和固定效应模型识别了中国农业非CO₂ GHG排放的影响因素.结果表明,高情景和中情景下中国农业非CO₂ GHG排放量整体呈上升趋势,到2050年仍未达峰;2018—2050年低情景下GHG排放量整体呈下降趋势,其中,低情景下已于2018年达峰,峰值为0.73×10⁹ t (以CO₂-eq计,下同);北京市、上海市、江苏省、浙江省、福建省、广东省、海南省、重庆市、四川省和青海省农业生产与其农业非CO₂ GHG排放呈强脱钩状态,其余21个省(直辖市、自治区)呈弱脱钩状态;除天津市和黑龙江省以外的29个省(直辖市、自治区),经济和人口为农业非CO₂ GHG排放的促进因素,效率和结构为其抑制因素.     

我国近10年城市生活垃圾处置单元温室气体排放时空变化及减排潜能分析

生活垃圾处置单元是重要的温室气体（GHG）排放源,明确其排放变化趋势及特征,是制定生活垃圾单元GHG减排的前提.采用IPCC清单模型,对中国2010~2020年城市生活垃圾（MSW）处置单元的GHG排放进行了估算.结果表明,GHG排放量（以CO₂-eq计,下同）从2010年的42.5 Mt增长至2019年的75.3 Mt,2020年降低到72.1 Mt;生活垃圾填埋场是GHG排放的主要来源,随着生活垃圾焚烧比例的增加,焚烧GHG排放占比从2010年的16.5%快速增加到2020年的60.1%;在区域分布上,华东和华南地区是排放量最高的区域,广东、山东、江苏和浙江是最主要的排放省.实行生活垃圾分类,转变生活垃圾处置方式（垃圾填埋向焚烧的转变）,提高填埋场填埋气体（LFG）收集效率,利用生物覆盖功能材料强化覆盖层甲烷（CH₄）氧化效率,是实现固废处置单元GHG减排的主要措施.