Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.     

Assessing ecological correlates of marine bird declines to inform marine conservation

Identifying drivers of ecosystem change in large marine ecosystems is central for their effective management and conservation. This is a sizable challenge, particularly in ecosystems transcending international borders, where monitoring and conservation of long‐range migratory species and their habitats are logistically and financially problematic. Here, using tools borrowed from epidemiology, we elucidated common drivers underlying species declines within a marine ecosystem, much in the way epidemiological analyses evaluate risk factors for negative health outcomes to better inform decisions. Thus, we identified ecological traits and dietary specializations associated with species declines in a community of marine predators that could be reflective of ecosystem change. To do so, we integrated count data from winter surveys collected in long‐term marine bird monitoring programs conducted throughout the Salish Sea—a transboundary large marine ecosystem in North America's Pacific Northwest. We found that decadal declines in winter counts were most prevalent among pursuit divers such as alcids (Alcidae) and grebes (Podicipedidae) that have specialized diets based on forage fish, and that wide‐ranging species without local breeding colonies were more prone to these declines. Although a combination of factors is most likely driving declines of diving forage fish specialists, we propose that changes in the availability of low‐trophic prey may be forcing wintering range shifts of diving birds in the Salish Sea. Such a synthesis of long‐term trends in a marine predator community not only provides unique insights into the types of species that are at risk of extirpation and why, but may also inform proactive conservation measures to counteract threats—information that is paramount for species‐specific and ecosystem‐wide conservation. Evaluación de las Correlaciones Ecológicas de las Declinaciones de Aves Marinas para Informar a la Conservación Marina     

广东省生态可持续发展定量研究:生态足迹时间维动态分析

生态足迹是一种定量测度生态可持续发展状态的指标和方法以支持可持续发展的决策。以广东省为案例，对广东1990年至2002年时间维的生态足迹及生态承载力进行计算和动态分析。结果表明，13年来，广东人均生态足迹和生态赤字不断增加，人均生态足迹从1990年的1．253hm^2增加至2002年的1．784hm^2，增加了42．38％；人均生态足迹赤字从0．817hm^2增加至2002年的1．393hm^2，但万元GDP生态足迹逐年下降。横向比较分析表明，广东2000年的人均生态足迹为1．636hm^2，低于全球平均水平(2．8hm^2)，同时也处于全球人均生态承载力(2．0hm^2)的范围，但超过中国人均生态承载力水平(O．681hm^2)；人均生态赤字(1．246hm^2)也高于世界平均水平(0．8hm^2)。因此，广东虽在全球尺度处于生态可持续发展状态，但生态系统的压力和强度甚高。     

Modeling regional impacts of climate teleconnections using functional data analysis

Teleconnections are quasi-periodic changes in atmospheric circulation that oscillate over long periods of time and impact climate over large regions. These patterns are often linked to long-term variations in climate and extreme weather events and may explain regional differences in climate vulnerability. We apply methods of functional data analysis to examine regional impacts of teleconnections on climate in British Columbia, Canada, between 1951 and 2000. We focus on monthly mean temperature as an overall determinant of crop growth and apply functional principal components analysis (FPCA) to study variations in the impacts of four major teleconnection indices affecting the Northern Hemisphere (the Southern Oscillation Index, the Pacific North American (PNA), Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North American Oscillation indices). Two challenges we consider are that the impacts of teleconnections cannot be observed directly and that fine scale data required to study regional variations may come from different sources with highly varied records. We first fit thin-plate regression splines to the raw data to construct complete series of pseudo-data at fixed grid points. Regression models incorporating Bayesian P-splines were then fit to the pseudo-data to estimate the impacts of the four teleconnections over time. Finally, FPCA was then applied to study regional variations in these effects. Our analysis identified strong variations in mean temperature associated with the PNA. The resulting spatial patterns also reveal areas of increased/decreased temperature variability that may have higher climate risk or be suitable for expansion of agricultural activity.     

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.     

A general approach to the analysis of habitat selection

The investigation of animal habitat selection aims at the detection of selective usage of habitat types and the identification of covariates influencing their selection. The results not only allow for a better understanding of the habitat selection process but are also intended to help improve the conservation of animals. Usually, habitat selection by larger animals is assessed by radio-tracking or visual observation studies, where the chosen habitat is determined for some animals at a set of specific points in time. Hence the resulting data often have the following structure: a categorical variable indicating the habitat type selected by an animal at a specific point in time is repeatedly observed and will be explained by covariates. These may either describe properties of the habitat types currently available and/or properties of the animal. In this paper, we present a general approach to the analysis of such data in a categorical regression setup. The proposed model generalizes and improves upon several of the approaches previously discussed in the literature. In particular, it accounts for changing habitat availability due to the movement of animals within the observation area. It incorporates both habitat- and animal-specific covariates, and includes individual-specific random effects to account for correlations introduced by the repeated measurements on single animals. Furthermore, the assumption that the effects are linear can be dropped by including the effects in nonparametric manner based on a penalized spline approach. The methodology is implemented in a freely available software package. We demonstrate the general applicability and the potential of the proposed approach in two case studies: The analysis of a songbird community in South-America and a study on brown bears in Central Europe.     

Using parasites to inform ecological history: comparisons among three congeneric marine snails

Species introduced to novel regions often leave behind many parasite species. Signatures of parasite release could thus be used to resolve cryptogenic (uncertain) origins such as that of Littorina littorea, a European marine snail whose history in North America has been debated for over 100 years. Through extensive field and literature surveys, we examined species richness of parasitic trematodes infecting this snail and two co-occurring congeners, L. saxatilis and L. obtusata, both considered native throughout the North Atlantic. Of the three snails, only L. littorea possessed significantly fewer trematode species in North America, and all North American trematodes infecting the three Littorina spp. were a nested subset of Europe. Surprisingly, several of L. littorea's missing trematodes in North America infected the other Littorina congeners. Most likely, long separation of these trematodes from their former host resulted in divergence of the parasites' recognition of L. littorea. Overall, these patterns of parasitism suggest a recent invasion from Europe to North America for L. littorea and an older, natural expansion from Europe to North America for L. saxatilis and L. obtusata.     

Linking movement, diving, and habitat to foraging success in a large marine predator

Establishing where and when predators forage is essential to understanding trophic interactions, yet foraging behavior remains poorly understood in large marine carnivores. We investigated the factors leading to foraging success in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the Northwest Atlantic in the first study to use simultaneous deployments of satellite transmitters, time depth recorders, and stomach-temperature loggers on a free-ranging marine mammal. Thirty-two seals were each fitted with the three types of instrumentation; however, complete records from all three instruments were obtained from only 13 individuals, underscoring the difficulty of such a multi-instrument approach. Our goal was to determine the characteristics of diving, habitat, and movement that predict feeding. We linked diving behavior to foraging success at two temporal scales: trips (days) and bouts (hours) to test models of optimal diving, which indicate that feeding can be predicted by time spent at the bottom of a dive. Using an information-theoretic approach, a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with trip duration and accumulated bottom time per day best explained the number of feeding events per trip, whereas the best predictor of the number of feeding events per bout was accumulated bottom time. We then tested whether characteristics of movement were predictive of feeding. Significant predictors of the number of feeding events per trip were angular variance (i.e., path tortuosity) and distance traveled per day. Finally, we integrated measures of diving, movement, and habitat at four temporal scales to determine overall predictors of feeding. At the 3-h scale, mean bottom time and distance traveled were the most important predictors of feeding frequency, whereas at the 6-h and 24-h time scales, distance traveled alone was most important. Bathymetry was the most significant predictor of feeding at the 12-h interval, with feeding more likely to occur at deeper depths. Our findings indicate that several factors predict feeding in gray seals, but predictor variables differ across temporal scales such that environmental variation becomes important at some scales and not others. Overall, our results illustrate the value of simultaneously recording and integrating multiple types of information to better understand the circumstances leading to foraging success.     

A habitat‐based approach to predict impacts of marine protected areas on fishers

Although marine protected areas can simultaneously contribute to biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, the global network is biased toward particular ecosystem types because they have been established primarily in an ad hoc fashion. The optimization of trade‐offs between biodiversity benefits and socioeconomic values increases success of protected areas and minimizes enforcement costs in the long run, but it is often neglected in marine spatial planning (MSP). Although the acquisition of spatially explicit socioeconomic data is perceived as a costly or secondary step in MSP, it is critical to account for lost opportunities by people whose activities will be restricted, especially fishers. We developed an easily reproduced habitat‐based approach to estimate the spatial distribution of opportunity cost to fishers in data‐poor regions. We assumed the most accessible areas have higher economic and conservation values than less accessible areas and their designation as no‐take zones represents a loss of fishing opportunities. We estimated potential distribution of fishing resources from bathymetric ranges and benthic habitat distribution and the relative importance of the different resources for each port of total catches, revenues, and stakeholder perception. In our model, we combined different cost layers to produce a comprehensive cost layer so that we could evaluate of trade‐offs. Our approach directly supports conservation planning, can be applied generally, and is expected to facilitate stakeholder input and community acceptance of conservation.     

Bridging information domains to improve ecological understanding of biological invasions in a marine ecosystem

We devised a practical method for integrating information on 2 marine invasive species using 3 different approaches: standardized ecological monitoring, online-reporting databases, and surveys of anglers and crabbers. Focusing on 2 recently introduced species with different characteristics, the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) and Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), in the Hudson-Raritan watershed of New York and New Jersey, we used sensitivity analyses to explore the relative contribution of each information source to knowledge of species abundance and distribution. All 3 information sources contributed something unique to understanding abundance and distribution of the introduced crabs. Online and survey data on Asian shore crabs significantly affected predictions of abundance, whereas monitoring data did not. When survey data were omitted, abundance estimates were unchanged over time, but when they were included, the model predicted an increased abundance in 2012. All 3 data sets for the Asian shore crab significantly affected estimates of species coverage; surveys had the biggest influence, increasing range size by 4097.25 km². For the catadromous Chinese mitten crab, ecological monitoring data collected in freshwater shortly after the original sighting significantly shaped model estimates for abundance and documented the establishment phase of the mitten crab in an area outside the spatial scope of the surveyed resource users. However, the survey data significantly enlarged mitten crab range-size estimates by 6498.01 km². By demonstrating that data integration produced an image of the invasion process that would not have emerged had we used any 1 method individually, model results provide evidence for the advantages of an interdisciplinary approach.     

Measuring marginal willingness to pay using conjoint analysis and developing benefit transfer functions in various Asian cities

We need a consistent methodology to measure the co-benefits of climate change mitigation across Asian countries. This study chose a strategy of modifying the Japan-specific life-cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME) for wider application across countries. LIME has two dimensions. First, it is an environmental science that links the cause-and-effect chain. Second, it is an environmental valuation that weighs four endpoint damages in monetary terms through a conjoint analysis that is derived from an Internet-based questionnaire survey. This article describes the modification of the methodology for application of the conjoint analysis to weigh environmental impacts. We approached the investigation as follows. First, we conducted Internet surveys to measure marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP). We used a sample of 112 respondents in their 20 s to 40 s, divided equally between men and women, in 11 cities across China, India, and Southeast Asia. The results obtained showed clear statistical significance and were comparable across the cities. Second, we attempted to develop functions (called benefit transfer functions) to simplify the measured MWTP in order to apply it across different Asian countries. The functions were derived through a stepwise meta-analytic method, a type of multiple regression analysis whose independent variable was MWTP and dependent variables were attributes of both respondents and surveyed cities. The functions showed that coal consumption and percentage of nature reserve were dependent variables. Then, the MWTPs estimated from the functions were compared with the measured MWTP for transfer error, which is calculated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value divided by the latter. The transfer error was below 50% in about 90% of the 44 results (a combination of four endpoints and 11 cities), implying that the developed functions were statistically significant.     

Urban marine ecology in southern California: the ability of riprap structures to serve as rocky intertidal habitat

Increasing human populations along marine coastlines has lead to increasing urbanization of the marine environment. Despite decades of investigations on terrestrial ecosystems, the effect of urbanization on marine life is not well understood. Riprap is the rocky rubble used to build jetties, breakwaters, and armored shorelines. Roughly 30% of the southern California shoreline supports some form of riprap, while 29% of the shoreline is natural rocky substrate. Astonishingly few studies have investigated this anthropogenic rocky habitat even though it rivals a natural habitat in area on a regional scale along a coastline that has been extensively studied. In this study, I compared the diversity and community structure of exposed rocky intertidal communities on four riprap and four natural sites in southern California. I ask the following questions: (1) does diversity or community composition differ between intertidal communities on riprap and natural rocky habitats in southern California, (2) if so, which organisms contribute to those differences, (3) which physical factors are contributing to these differences, and (4) do riprap habitats support higher abundances of invasive species than natural habitats? On average, riprap and natural rocky habitats in wave exposed environments in southern California did not differ from each other in diversity or community composition when considering the entire assemblage. However, when only mobile species were considered, they occurred in greater diversity on natural shores. These differences appear to be driven by wave exposure. The presence of invasive species was negligible in both natural and riprap habitats.     

The Mediterranean intertidal habitat as a natural laboratory to study climate change drivers of geographic patterns in marine biodiversity

Nylon bags containing yellow leaves of Rhizophora apiculata and Avicennia marina, were immersed for 80 days from August to October, 1996. the decomposing leaves were collected every 10 days and analysed for dry weight loss and six biochemical parameters: tannins, total amino acids, total sugars, total nitrogen, total lipids and fatty acid profile. the leaf weight initially decreased very rapidly by about 50% of the start in two species of mangroves within 10 days. Similar changes were observed with tannins, total amino acids and sugars. However, the concentration of nitrogen increased significantly with decomposition. There was no significant change in total lipid and fatty acid profile. the highest concentration of fatty acid in the decomposing leaves was palmitic acid (16:0). Unsaturated fatty acids such as, 18:1 w7c and 18:1 w9c were found to be present in decomposing leaves of both species.     

K-select analysis: a new method to analyse habitat selection in radio-tracking studies

Two kinds of wildlife habitat studies can be distinguished in the literature: hindcasting and forecasting studies. Hindcasting studies aim to emphasize among a large set of habitat variables those that are of interest for the focus species, whereas forecasting studies are intended to predict habitat selection according to a small number of habitat variables for a given area. We provide here a new analytical tool which relies on the concept of ecological niche, the K-select analysis, for hindcasting studies of habitat selection by animals using radio-tracking data. Each habitat variable defines one dimension in the ecological space. For each animal, the difference between the vector of average available habitat conditions and the vector of average used conditions defines the marginality vector. Its size is proportional to the importance of habitat selection, and its direction indicates which variables are selected. By performing a non-centered principal component analysis of the table containing the coordinates of the marginality vectors of each animal (row) on the habitat variables (column), the K-select analysis returns a linear combination of habitat variables for which the average marginality is greatest. It is a synthesis of variables which contributes the most to the habitat selection. As with principal component analysis, the biological significance of the factorial axes is deduced from the loading of variables. An example is provided: habitat selection by wild boar is studied in a Mediterranean habitat using the K-select analysis. The numerous advantages of the analysis (a large number of variables that can be included, individual variability in habitat selection taken into account, a lack of too strict underlying hypotheses) make it a powerful approach in radio-tracking studies designed to identify habitat variables that are selected by animals.     

Population structure,food relations and ecological role of marine oligochaetes,with special reference to meiobenthic species

Data on abundance, biomass and biovolume demonstrate the significant ecological role of oligochaetes in the littoral marine benthos. Their numerical and productive importance is comparable to that of many other common meio-and macrofauna groups from various littoral areas. Oligochaetes often exhibit nutritional specialization (e.g. bacteria or diatoms attached to detritus or sand grains). Consequently, food supply can control their population structure and distribution. Few oligochaetes are, apparently, consumed by predators. Hence, only a small portion of their biomass is transferred to higher trophic levels, while the main part is decomposed directly. Most oligochaetes seem to represent final links of rather short food chains. Ecologically, marine oligochaetes attain major importance only in littoral areas.This investigation was supported by the Sonderforschungsbereich 94 (Meeresforschung) at the University of Hamburg.     

An improved approach for identifying suitable habitat of Sambar Deer (Cervus unicolor Kerr) using ecological niche analysis and environmental categorization: Case study at Phu-Khieo Wildlife Sanctuary,Thailand

To assess habitat suitability (HS) has become an increasingly important component of species/ecosystem management. HS assessment is usually based on presence/absence data related to environmental variables. An exception is Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), which uses only presence data and which does not require absence data. Most HS modelling is based on input of all environmental parameters (EnvPs) without environmental categorization, and does not take into account species interaction and human intervention for an assessment of HS. In this study, the EnvPs are arranged into four features: geographical features, consumable features, human-factor features, and species–human interaction features. These features affect species with respect to movement, behavior and activity. The research presented here has used an already existing dataset of wildlife species and human activities/visitations, which was compiled during 2004–2006 in Phu-Khieo Wildlife Sanctuary (PKWS). Data from 2004 to 2005 were used to produce HS maps, while the data of 2006 were used for evaluating these maps. Sambar Deer (SD) was chosen to predict its own HS. Six HS maps of SD were analyzed using ENFA in the following manner: (1) inputting all EnvPs together, (2) inputting each feature, separately and (3) integrating the four resulting HS maps by model averaging. It was found that model averaging was capable of predicting the HS of SD more reliably than the model with all EnvPs put in together. Multiple linear regressions were computed between the HS map with all EnvPs and the HS maps with each feature. The results show that the HS map with only geographical features has the highest coefficient value (0.516) while the coefficient values of other HS maps with the above features are 0.296, 0.53 and −0.006, respectively. This indicates that the geographical features have an influence on the other features and that the predicting power is lower when all EnvPs are computed in the ENFA model. Therefore, in order to generate HS, each feature should at first be put into the model separately. Following that, the average of all features will be combined.     

Measuring terrestrial subsidies to aquatic food webs using stable isotopes of hydrogen

Understanding river food webs requires distinguishing energy derived from primary production in the river itself (autochthonous) from that produced externally (allochthonous), yet there are no universally applicable and reliable techniques for doing so. We compared the natural abundance stable isotope ratios of hydrogen (deltaD) of allochthonous and autochthonous energy sources in four different aquatic ecosystems. We found that autochthonous organic matter is uniformly far more depleted in deuterium (lower deltaD values) than allochthonous: an average difference of approximately 100% per hundred. We also found that organisms at higher trophic levels, including both aquatic invertebrates and fish, have deltaD values intermediate between aquatic algae and terrestrial plants. The consistent differences between leaves and algae in deltaD among these four watersheds, along with the intermediate values in higher trophic levels, indicate that natural abundance hydrogen isotope signatures are a powerful tool for partitioning energy flow in aquatic ecosystems.     

Control system approaches to ecological systems analysis: Invariants and frequency response

The steady-state assumption is a mainstay for the analysis of ecological systems with more than three or four states. However, it is well accepted in ecology that inputs to large systems come in pulses assumed to have a reasonably constant magnitude and frequency. Steady pulse inputs and the use of electro-chemical–mechanical control systems methodology enables limited short term dynamic responses of ecological systems of a scale often occurring in systems of potential engineering importance to be analyzed. This paper explores and presents a survey of multi-input–multi-output (MIMO) control systems analysis of ecosystem network models to better understand pulse frequency issues and further develop experimentally verifiable approaches to testing the MIMO concept. The analysis process is demonstrated using two network model exemplars. Two aspects of MIMO analyses appear relevant to understanding ecological systems: (1) Eigenvalue invariant analyses and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses enable assessment of stability and relative strength of states. Eigenvalues reflect time constants and provide a check on experimentally determined system matrices. (2) Analysis of SVD versus frequency for each output indicates maximum pulse frequencies that allow system components to benefit from pulsing. As a group, MIMO analyses complement other analytical methods and provide a theoretical systems focus convenient for analyzing ecosystems from an engineering perspective.     

Differential sensitivities to hypoxia by two anoxia-tolerant marine molluscs: A biochemical analysis

The metabolic responses to a series of low oxygen tensions were compared for two species of Mediterranaean bivalves,Mytilus galloprovincialis andScapharca inaequivalvis. Whereas both species have well-developed and similar tolerances of anoxia, the metabolic responses ofS. inaequivalvis to low oxygen tensions indicate a substantially greater tolerance of hypoxia. Compared withM. galloprovincialis, the responses ofS. inaequivalvis included the ability to maintain a constant oxygen consumption down to a much lower pO₂ value (ca. 1.7 vs 3.4 ppm), and a lower critical pO₂ for the recruitment of fermentative pathways of ATP production (ca. 1 vs 3 ppm). Furthermore, a graded increase in the output of anaerobic products (succinate, alanine) occured at oxygen tensions below 3 ppm inM. galloprovincialis and reached a maximum at 1.6 ppm whereas inS. inaequivalvis the net accumulation of anaerobic products at the lowest oxygen tension tested (0.5 ppm) was still substantially less than the level of production output in complete anoxia. This suggests that fermentative pathways are maximally activated at all oxygen tensions below 1.6 ppm inM. galloprovincialis whereas rates of anaerobic pathways are still less than maximum at 0.5 ppm inS. inaequivalvis. These results indicate that in situations of declining oxygen tensions, such as occur due to eutrophication,M. galloprovincialis would not only begin to experience metabolic stress at higher oxygen tensions thanS. inaequivalvis but would experience greater stress at any given pO₂. Such differences in hypoxia tolerances may explain the success of the recently introducedS. inaequivalvis in out-competing the nativeM. galloprovincialis in the Adriatic Sea.This research was conducted at the Consorzio di Studi, Richerche ed Interventi sulle Risorse Marine, Viale Amerigo Vespucci 2, I-47042 Cesenatico (FO), Italy. Delta Institute for Hydrobiological Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands. Publication no. 554