Modelling dependence structures of extreme wind speed using bivariate distribution: a Bayesian approach

When investigating extremes of weather variables, it is seldom that a single weather station determines the damage, and extremes may be caused from the combined behaviour of several weather stations. To investigate joint dependence of extreme wind speed, a bivariate generalised extreme value distribution (BGEVD) was considered from frequentist and Bayesian approaches to analyse the extremes of component-wise monthly maximum wind speed at selected weather stations in South Africa. In the frequentist approach, the parameters of extreme value distributions (EVDs) were estimated with maximum likelihood, whereas in the Bayesian approach the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique was used with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. The results showed that when fitted to component-wise maxima of extreme weather variables, the BGEVD provided apparent benefits over the univariate method, which allowed information to be pooled across stations and resulted in improved precision of the estimates for the parameters and return levels of the distributions. The paper also discusses a method to construct informative priors empirically using historical data of the underlying process from weather characteristics of four pairs of surrounding weather stations at various distances. The results from the Bayesian analysis showed that posterior inference might be affected by the choice of priors that were used to formulate the informative priors. From the results, it could be inferred that the Bayesian approach provides a satisfactory estimation strategy in terms of precision, compared with the frequentist approach, because it accounts for uncertainty in parameters and return level estimations.     

Evaluating Private Land Conservation in the Cape Lowlands,South Africa

Abstract: Evaluation is important for judiciously allocating limited conservation resources and for improving conservation success through learning and strategy adjustment. We evaluated the application of systematic conservation planning goals and conservation gains from incentive‐based stewardship interventions on private land in the Cape Lowlands and Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. We collected spatial and nonspatial data (2003–2007) to determine the number of hectares of vegetation protected through voluntary contractual and legally nonbinding (informal) agreements with landowners; resources spent on these interventions; contribution of the agreements to 5‐ and 20‐year conservation goals for representation and persistence in the Cape Lowlands of species and ecosystems; and time and staff required to meet these goals. Conservation gains on private lands across the Cape Floristic Region were relatively high. In 5 years, 22,078 ha (27,800 ha of land) and 46,526 ha (90,000 ha of land) of native vegetation were protected through contracts and informal agreements, respectively. Informal agreements often were opportunity driven and cheaper and faster to execute than contracts. All contractual agreements in the Cape Lowlands were within areas of high conservation priority (identified through systematic conservation planning), which demonstrated the conservation plan's practical application and a high level of overlap between resource investment (approximately R1.14 million/year in the lowlands) and priority conservation areas. Nevertheless, conservation agreements met only 11% of 5‐year and 9% of 20‐year conservation goals for Cape Lowlands and have made only a moderate contribution to regional persistence of flora to date. Meeting the plan's conservation goals will take three to five times longer and many more staff members to maintain agreements than initially envisaged.     

Ecology of Patella species from the Cape peninsula,South Africa. IV. Desiccation

The importance of desiccation as of factor limiting zonation was investigated for 7 South African Patella Linnaeus species. Small specimens lost water fastest and were least tolerant to desiccation. Differences in shell shape largely explain differences in the rate of desiccation, both within and between species: tall conical shells with a small mouth circumference minimize water loss. Tolerance was closely related to zonation, but zonation was not correlated with either shell shape or rate of water loss. Two groups of limpets could be distinguished: migratory species which increase in tolerance as they age, correlated with the habit of moving up the shore; and non-migratory species which have a narrow range of tolerance. Zonation of the former group is probably limited by physical factors while the latter are behaviourally restricted to a narrow zone. The selective value of these strategies is discussed.     

Short-term effects of an oil spill on the West coast of the Cape Peninsula, South Africa

In 1994, the sinking of the ‘Apollo Sea’ off the West coast of South Africa led to the deposition of ca. 2 500 tons of heavy fuel oil over 150 km of coastline. The impact of the spill on rocky shore invertebrates, rock-pool fish fauna and rock lobsters was assessed by conducting surveys shortly after the spill, and again two months later. Where possible, results of these surveys were compared with existing data from before the sinking of the Apollo Sea. Among the fish fauna of rock-pools, changes in total density of fishes were largely due to changes in the abundance ofClinus superciliosus and were within the range of natural variation for the species and the community as a whole. Community structure of the rock-pool fish fauna also remained unaffected. At three of four impacted rocky shore sites no changes could be detected in overall benthic community structure, although the winkleNodilittorina africana was affected. At the fourth site, a boulder beach, statistical analysis showed distinct differences in community structure between heavily and lightly contaminated areas, as well as between all areas compared with previously existing data. There were also significant changes in the lightly oiled areas between the first and second surveys after the spill. Oil-fouled lobster were found at one of three sites investigated. Ca. 7 % of the seabed in this particular area was polluted. Antennae and forelegs of almost all lobsters in the vicinity of the oil were fouled. Examination of the gut-contents confirmed that oil inhibits the ability of lobster to feed. Although there was no evidence that mortalities of lobster were caused by the spill, growth rates may be reduced by the decreased feeding rate. Overall, the impact of the spill was strikingly less than might have been predicted from the effects of other oil spills. Nomenclature: Names of fish species follow Smith & Heemstra (1986).     

The role of European marram grass in dune stabilization and succession near Cape Agulhas, South Africa

The coastline near the southern tip of Africa is characterized by large mobile dunes that are driven along wide beaches by strong winds throughout the year. This results in the blockage of the river mouths causing severe flooding of the low-lying farmland of the Agulhas Plain during the rainy winter season. Large parts of the driftsands were stabilized with the European dune pioneer species Marram grass (Ammophila arenaria), which has proved highly invasive along the North American west coast. In order to establish the potential invasiveness ofA. arenaria in South African coastal dune systems and its role in the succession of a large stabilization area, studies were carried out on De Mond Nature Reverve. Using aerial photos, maps and planting records, the vegetation of sites of various ages were sampled. By means of this chronosequence of stands, there is clear evidence that succession takes place at De Mond. Four communities are distinguished, varying from recent plantings ofA. arenaria to mature dune thicket or dune fynbos (heath) vegetation. These relate to four different stages of succession,A. arenaria occurring in reduced abundance in the older communities. After 50 years, formerA. arenaria areas are usually covered by dense dune scrub and in some places even in asteraceous dune fynbos. Succession is most rapid in sheltered, moist dune slacks, butA. arenaria remains vigorous in conditions favourable for its growht, i.e. on exposed, steep dune slopes with strong sand movement.A. arenaria does not appear to spread unaidedly at De Mond and has been successfully used for temporary dune stabilization.     

Growing of trees in home-gardens by rural households in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo Provinces,South Africa

Trees provide a wide range of goods and services to rural households which, when incorporated into their livelihood strategies, help reduce their vulnerability to adversity. Governments and policy makers often ignore the contribution made by trees and consequently resources are focussed on cash crops and livestock. Villagers in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo Province, South Africa utilise a range of trees from home-gardens for various purposes, although predominantly for fruit and shade. Trees are either planted or actively retained in households' home-gardens. There were noticeable differences between the villages in the Eastern Cape and those in Limpopo Province, particularly with respect to the overall density of trees per hectare and the number of species per household, both being significantly greater in Limpopo Province. The five most preferred species were listed for each village, revealing a preference for exotic fruit trees in Limpopo Province and a mix of exotic fruit trees and shade trees in the Eastern Cape. Households also retained useful indigenous species, predominantly fruit-bearing species. A range of factors constrain tree growing in home-gardens and households engage in practices to grow and maintain their trees. Not all of these constraints and practices were significantly different between the various localities.     

Coccolithophores: a major phytoplankton component in mature upwelled waters off the Cape Peninsula,South Africa in March, 1983

Coccolithophores, together with other phytoplankton, were sampled at ten stations along a transect following the general orientation of the Cape Peninsula upwelling plume in March, 1983. Thirteen coccolithophore species were identified with Emiliania huxleyi dominating the assemblages. Coccolithophores and other microflagellates were more abundant than diatoms along the transect except at one station in mature upwelled water. Very high populations (2 340×10³ cells l^-1) of coccolithophores were found in mature upwelled water adjacent to the oceanic front. This count is one of the highest counts ever recorded in an upwelling area. The anomalous warm event prior to sampling may have had a residual effect on seeding, contributing towards the predominance of small-celled phytoplankton over chain-forming diatoms.     

Carbon monoxide levels at a toll plaza near Durban, South Africa

Reliable measurements of pollutant levels in the vicinity of a toll plaza appear to be rare. In order to assess the exposure of toll booth operators to carbon monoxide, a continuous carbon monoxide monitor was installed at head height in the booth of a medium density traffic lane at the Mariannhill toll plaza, situated on a busy highway near Durban, South Africa. Measurements in excess of 500 ppmv were recorded and the high daily mean carbon monoxide concentrations may account for some of the symptoms such as headaches and general malaise that have been reported by workers in the booths. Generally, carbon monoxide levels recorded far exceed the recommended limit set by the South African authorities. These results have led to recommendations regarding the structure of new and existing toll booths to minimize the exposure of toll booth workers to adverse effects of vehicle-emitted pollutants.     

Wild Dog Demography in Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park, South Africa

Abstract: Wild dogs (   Lycaon pictus ) are highly threatened carnivores, and conservation of their dwindling numbers is needed. Isolated populations contribute little to these conservation efforts, so linking populations of dogs is a necessary goal to prevent extinction. I gathered demographic information from a small population of wild dogs in Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Photographs and archive records from 1981 to 1996 were used to compile information on this population. Demographic parameters from the released population were compared with information on wild dogs elsewhere. Most demographic parameters of the Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park population were similar to published information from other populations. The main difference was the effect of a single pack on population performance: pack formation was unlikely, unrelated animals were rare, and major losses (emigration and mortalities) occurred. Increasing the number of packs by introducing more dogs would be useful but would be only a short-term solution. Increasing the local population size and artificially linking populations in southern Africa appears to be the only longer-term solution to ensure the viability of wild dogs on the subcontinent.     

Identification of Conservation-Worthy Areas in Northern Zululand, South Africa

Abstract: We used spatial and statistical analyses to identify and prioritize broad areas for conservation attention in the northern Zululand region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We attempted to identify conservation-worthy areas based on species, vegetation types, ecological processes, and threats to biodiversity. Information on species was limited and so could not form the basis of the analysis. Priority vegetation types were identified by degree of endemicity, extent of protection and transformation, and degree of fragmentation. These priority vegetation types and threats to biodiversity were used to define broad linkages between existing protected areas. We set a goal of 10% protection for each vegetation type and 25% for each species. We identified several important (endemic or threatened) animal species and predicted their ranges using a simple model. Species ranges and their hotspots were compared with the distribution of protected areas and the suggested linkages to evaluate increased species representation. Generally, the eastern part of the study area was well protected. Unprotected conservation-worthy areas under greatest threat lay in the west, and protecting these areas is a priority. Furthermore, several vegetation types were not protected by provincial authorities, a situation that also needs to be addressed. The findings of our study need to be reassessed at a finer land-parcel scale, and implementation of a range of land-use options considered.     

The location of spawning grounds,spawning and schooling behaviour of the squid Loligo vulgaris reynaudii (Cephalopoda: Myopsida) off the Eastern Cape Coast,South Africa

The location of spawning grounds of the squid Loligo vulgaris reynaudii (D'Orbigny) was investigated in the years 1988–1990. At least 39 spawning sites were found during this period along the inshore areas of the Eastern Cape coastline between Algoa Bay and Plettenberg Bay. The substrate chosen for egg laying was mostly fine sand or flat reef, frequently in large and relatively shettered bays. Spawning was found to occur sporadically throughout the year, and some spawning sites were used repeatedly within a particular year and in subsequent years. Squid migrate in discrete schools separated by sex in the vicinity of the spawning sites; these schools mix during spawning. Mating and egg deposition behaviour is described from observations made on the spawning grounds. Cannibalism was seen on a number of occasions, but no post-spawning mortality was recorded. Egg beds consisted mostly of large concentrations of egg strands (>3 m in diameter), with smaller aggregations of one to ten egg strands surrounding these, with single strands in the immediate vicinity. Three basic patterns of echotraces were identified and interpreted according to diving observations. These patterns were classified as loose patches, dense patches, and complex patterns. The first two represent non-spawning schooling patterns and the third, mating and egg laying behaviour. This observation led to the general classification of squid aggregations: schools (non-spawning mode) and concentrations (spawning mode). Concentrations as far as Loligo vulgaris reynaudii was concerned were further divided into two patterns: suprabenthic and benthic (spawning) squid.     

Pivotal discrepancy measures for Bayesian modelling of spatio-temporal data

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Within the field of geostatistics, Gaussian processes are a staple for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal data. Statistical literature is rich with...     

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.     

POD characterisation of extreme wake patterns of turbulent wind fields past rectangular buildings

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The turbulent wind fields around three different rectangular building models in two types of simulated atmospheric boundary layer are measured using particle image...     

Safeguarding Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in the Little Karoo,South Africa

Abstract: Global declines in biodiversity and the widespread degradation of ecosystem services have led to urgent calls to safeguard both. Responses to this urgency include calls to integrate the needs of ecosystem services and biodiversity into the design of conservation interventions. The benefits of such integration are purported to include improvements in the justification and resources available for these interventions. Nevertheless, additional costs and potential trade‐offs remain poorly understood in the design of interventions that seek to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. We sought to investigate the synergies and trade‐offs in safeguarding ecosystem services and biodiversity in South Africa's Little Karoo. We used data on three ecosystem services—carbon storage, water recharge, and fodder provision—and data on biodiversity to examine several conservation planning scenarios. First, we investigated the amount of each ecosystem service captured incidentally by a conservation plan to meet targets for biodiversity only while minimizing opportunity costs. We then examined the costs of adding targets for ecosystem services into this conservation plan. Finally, we explored trade‐offs between biodiversity and ecosystem service targets at a fixed cost. At least 30% of each ecosystem service was captured incidentally when all of biodiversity targets were met. By including data on ecosystem services, we increased the amount of services captured by at least 20% for all three services without additional costs. When biodiversity targets were reduced by 8%, an extra 40% of fodder provision and water recharge were obtained and 58% of carbon could be captured for the same cost. The opportunity cost (in terms of forgone production) of safeguarding 100% of the biodiversity targets was about US$500 million. Our results showed that with a small decrease in biodiversity target achievement, substantial gains for the conservation of ecosystem services can be achieved within our biodiversity priority areas for no extra cost.     

Comparison of larval fish assemblages in three large estuarine systems, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

 The structure of the larval fish assemblages in three large estuarine systems on the KwaZulu-Natal coast of South Africa was examined using a combination of univariate, distributional and multivariate techniques. The database was comprised of a full annual set of larval fish samples taken from each estuarine system: Durban Harbour, Richards Bay Harbour and St Lucia Estuary. The mean monthly densities of each species in each system were used in the species matrix, and the mean monthly values of salinity, temperature and turbidity were used in the environmental matrix. The mean species diversity and evenness index were significantly higher in Durban Harbour (H′ = 1.03, J′ = 0.65) than in the other two systems. The cumulative dominance curve showed that St Lucia Estuary has a high dominance of a few species, with Richards Bay Harbour intermediate and Durban Harbour being the most diverse. Classification and MDS (multiple-dimensional scaling) analyses of larval fish densities in all three systems grouped together into three main clusters on the basis of system. The species similarity matrix (inverse analysis) clustered into five groups at the 25% similarity level. The MDS analysis of the same matrix showed that the groups separated out according to the degree of estuarine association of a species and hence habitat type. The species most responsible for system groupings were: Glossogobius callidus, Gilchristella aestuaria, Stolephorus holodon, Croilia mossambica and Gobiid 12. The “best fitting” of the environmental variables to explain the larval fish community patterns in each system was turbidity on its own (weighted Spearman's rank correlation, ρ_w = 0.55). The relationship of larval densities to environmental conditions was shown to be species-specific with estuarine species (e.g. G. callidus and G. aestuaria), having a strong positive correlation with temperature and turbidity but negative correlations with salinity. In summary, much longer term studies with more sites within each system are needed to assess whether the larval fish assemblages are stable or at an equilibrium (both spatially and temporally) and whether these assemblages are indicative of the relative “health” and nursery function of the system. Received: 28 April 1999 / Accepted: 30 May 2000     

The importance of seed dispersal in the Alexandria Coastal Dunefield, South Africa

The endozoochorous dispersal of seeds by mammals and birds between distinct vegetation communities was assessed to determine the importance of these processes in coastal dune field management. Isolated pockets of thicket vegetation (bush-pockets) within a large coastal dune field provided the opportunity to study vertebrate seed dispersal and its contribution to their origin and maintenance. Mammalian and avian faeces were collected for the quantification of seeds dispersed via endozoochory. Birds and mammals showed considerable overlap, dispersing intact seeds of 17 and 29 plant species, respectively, but mammals dispersed a greater diversity and size range than birds. Extrapolation of mammalian faecal data indicates an annual input of 23 million intact seeds to the dune field. Significantly more seeds are deposited by mammals and birds in the bush-pockets than on open sand, and birds deposited greater numbers of seeds nearer the seed source. Zoochory appears to be critical for the maintenance of the bush-pocket habitats through the dispersal of climax woody plant species into the dune field. Directional dispersal by birds and mammals to the bush-pockets is considered to be responsible for the maintenance and possible origin of these bush-pockets. The high number of exotic plant propagules dispersed by both avian and mammalian zoochory highlights the importance of management of the Alexandria Coastal Dunefield (ACD) beyond the reserve boundaries. In a dynamic system such as the ACD which is within a declared nature reserve, the continued existence of the bush-pockets may depend on the maintenance, beyond the reserve boundaries, of a reservoir of not only plant material but vertebrate dispersers as well.     

Transboundary conservation: Development implications for communities in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Conservation is increasingly promoted as a sustainable development instrument in Southern Africa, particularly for remote rural communities. Conservation and development schemes are marketed as community-based projects providing local empowerment through the creation of jobs and cash stemming from protected areas, as well as increased biodiversity protection by local communities whose jobs are dependent on the resource. Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs), mega Peace Parks that cross international borders, are one of the latest conservation and development paradigms in Southern Africa. TFCAs have gained broad support, including government recognition as a development tool. However, there has been minimal research on the impact of TFCAs on local communities. This paper seeks to provide an empirical case study of a South African community bordering the Lubombo TFCA (South Africa, Swaziland, Mozambique). Results are presented that indicate the Mbangweni community in KwaZulu-Natal could experience decreased access to social, natural, and economic resources as a result of the Peace Park.