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1.
Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs. 相似文献
2.
Remote sensing of aquatic vegetation distribution in Taihu Lake using an improved classification tree with modified thresholds 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Classification trees (CT) have been used successfully in the past to classify aquatic vegetation from spectral indices (SI) obtained from remotely-sensed images. However, applying CT models developed for certain image dates to other time periods within the same year or among different years can reduce the classification accuracy. In this study, we developed CT models with modified thresholds using extreme SI values (CT(m)) to improve the stability of the models when applying them to different time periods. A total of 903 ground-truth samples were obtained in September of 2009 and 2010 and classified as emergent, floating-leaf, or submerged vegetation or other cover types. Classification trees were developed for 2009 (Model-09) and 2010 (Model-10) using field samples and a combination of two images from winter and summer. Overall accuracies of these models were 92.8% and 94.9%, respectively, which confirmed the ability of CT analysis to map aquatic vegetation in Taihu Lake. However, Model-10 had only 58.9-71.6% classification accuracy and 31.1-58.3% agreement (i.e., pixels classified the same in the two maps) for aquatic vegetation when it was applied to image pairs from both a different time period in 2010 and a similar time period in 2009. We developed a method to estimate the effects of extrinsic (EF) and intrinsic (IF) factors on model uncertainty using Modis images. Results indicated that 71.1% of the instability in classification between time periods was due to EF, which might include changes in atmospheric conditions, sun-view angle and water quality. The remainder was due to IF, such as phenological and growth status differences between time periods. The modified version of Model-10 (i.e. CT(m)) performed better than traditional CT with different image dates. When applied to 2009 images, the CT(m) version of Model-10 had very similar thresholds and performance as Model-09, with overall accuracies of 92.8% and 90.5% for Model-09 and the CT(m) version of Model-10, respectively. CT(m) decreased the variability related to EF and IF and thereby improved the applicability of the models to different time periods. In both practice and theory, our results suggested that CT(m) was more stable than traditional CT models and could be used to map aquatic vegetation in time periods other than the one for which the model was developed. 相似文献
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Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions
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Samuel H. Austin David L. Nelms 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2017,53(5):1133-1146
Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making. 相似文献
5.
Younggu Her Conrad D. Heatwole Moon S. Kang 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2015,51(4):1072-1087
The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) has been a valuable resource for hydrological analysis, providing elevation data at a consistent resolution on a near‐global scale. However, its resolution (three arc‐second or 90 m) is sometimes too low to obtain the desired level of accuracy and precision for hydrologic analysis. We evaluated the performance of several methods for interpolating SRTM three arc‐second data to a 30‐m resolution grid to better represent topography and derive terrain characteristics of the landscape. STRM data were interpolated to 30‐m DEMs on a common grid using spline, inverse distance weighting (IDW), kriging (KR), natural neighbor methods, and cubic convolution (CC) resampling. Accuracy of the methods was assessed by comparing interpolated and resampled 30‐m grids with the reference data. Slope, aspect, sinks, and stream networks were derived for the 30‐m grids and compared on a cell‐by‐cell basis to evaluate their performance in reproducing the derivatives. The comparisons identify spline and KR as the most accurate interpolation methods, of which spline is preferred because of its relative simplicity. IDW provided the greatest bias in all methods with artifacts evident in slope and aspect maps. The performance of CC projection directly to a 30‐m resolution was comparable to spline interpolation, thus is recommended as the most convenient method for interpolating SRTM to a higher resolution. 相似文献
6.
To use models of species distributions effectively in conservation planning, it is important to determine the predictive accuracy of such models. Extensive modelling of the distribution of vascular plant and vertebrate fauna species within north-east New South Wales has been undertaken by linking field survey data to environmental and geographical predictors using logistic regression. These models have been used in the development of a comprehensive and adequate reserve system within the region. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of models for 153 small reptile, arboreal marsupial, diurnal bird and vascular plant species for which independent evaluation data were available. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the relative operating characteristic curve to measure discrimination capacity. Good discrimination ability implies that a model's predictions provide an acceptable index of species occurrence. The discrimination capacity of 89% of the models was significantly better than random, with 70% of the models providing high levels of discrimination. Predictions generated by this type of modelling therefore provide a reasonably sound basis for regional conservation planning. The discrimination ability of models was highest for the less mobile biological groups, particularly the vascular plants and small reptiles. In the case of diurnal birds, poor performing models tended to be for species which occur mainly within specific habitats not well sampled by either the model development or evaluation data, highly mobile species, species that are locally nomadic or those that display very broad habitat requirements. Particular care needs to be exercised when employing models for these types of species in conservation planning. 相似文献
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Albert Rango Arlen Feldman Thomas S. George III Robert M. Ragan 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1983,19(2):165-174
ABSTRACT: In a cooperative demonstration project, NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) compared conventional and Landsat-derived land-use data for use in hydrologic models, and the resulting discharge frequency curves were analyzed. When a grid-based data-management system was used on a cell-by-cell basis (size about 1.1 acres or 0.45 hectare), Landsat classification accuracy was only 64 percent, but, when the grid cells were aggregated into watersheds, the classification accuracy increased to about 95 percent. When both conventional and Landsat land-use data were input to the HEC-1 model for generating discharge frequency curves, the differences in calculated discharge were judged insignificant for subbasins as small as 1.0mi2 (2.59 km2). For basins larger than 10mi2 (25.9km2), use of the Landsat approach is more cost-effective than use of conventional methods. Digital Landsat data can also be used effectively by local and regional agencies for hydrologic analysis by incorporating the data into grid-based data-management systems. The transfer of this new technology is well under way through inclusion in some Corps training courses and through use by both county government personnel and private consultants. 相似文献
9.
Jessica A. Salo David M. Theobald Thomas C. Brown 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2016,52(3):632-647
Riparian zones in semi‐arid, mountainous regions provide a disproportionate amount of the available wildlife habitat and ecosystem services. Despite their importance, there is little guidance on the best way to map riparian zones for broad spatial extents (e.g., large watersheds) when detailed maps from field data or high‐resolution imagery and terrain data are not available. Using well‐established accuracy metrics (e.g., kappa, precision, computational complexity), we evaluated eight methods commonly used to map riparian zones. Focusing on a semi‐arid, mountainous watershed, we found that the most accurate and robust method for mapping riparian zones combines data on upstream drainage area and valley topography. That method performed best regardless of stream order, and was most effective when implemented with fine resolution topographic and stream line data. Other commonly used methods to model riparian zones, such as those based on fixed‐width buffers, yielded inaccurate results. We recommend that until very‐high resolution (<1 m) elevation data are available at broad extents, models of riparian zones for semi‐arid mountainous regions should incorporate drainage area, valley topography, and quantify uncertainty. 相似文献
10.
Only a few empirical studies on forest aesthetics have adopted a water-based perspective for observers and have investigated
the perceived visual quality of forested shorelines. In forested environments with many lakes, such as the boreal forest in
the Canadian Shield, individuals have greater exposure to forests from water-based rather than in-stand vantage points. This
study employed the psychophysical research direction to explore the relationships between scenic beauty and biophysical characteristics
of the forested shorelines in the boreal forests. Two model forms were tested. One model related the variation of shoreline
forest aesthetic evaluations of near-vista views (140 m offshore) to a set of forest mensuration data. Tree size, tree mortality,
conifer shrubs, tree density, amount of hardwood, and slope explained 60.2% of the variance in scenic beauty between the study
sites. A second model was calibrated to test the relationship between an already existing ecosystem vegetation classification
system and the aesthetic evaluations of the same forested shorelines. When the ecosystem classification was simplified to
eight groups, the model explained 48.5% of variance. These models suggest that the psychophysical approach to studying aesthetics
can be applied successfully to near-vista evaluations of scenic beauty. The finding that a forest ecosystem classification
system is highly related to scenic beauty suggests that, at least in the boreal forest, managers can reasonably estimate the
scenic beauty of forested shoreline environments from an ecosystem classification, with little need for intensive data on
these sites. 相似文献
11.
The simplest type of model describing animal habitats is a “cover-type model,” in which a species is assumed to be present
in certain vegetation types and absent in others. Ecologists and managers use these models to predict animal distributions
for gap analysis and conservation planning. Critics, however, have suggested that the models are overly simplistic and inaccurate.
We reviewed the use of cover-type models including assessing their error rates, diagnosing the problems with these models,
and determining how they should best be used by managers. To determine models’ accuracy rates, we conducted a meta-analysis
of 35 studies in which cover-type models were tested against data on animal occurrences. Models had a mean accuracy rate of
0.71 ± 0.18 (SD). Rates of commission error averaged 0.20 ± 0.16, and omission errors averaged 0.09 ± 0.11. A review of the
effects of errors in conservation planning suggests that the observed error rates were high enough to call into question any
management decisions based on these models. Reasons for the high error rates of cover-type models include the fallibility
of expert opinion, the fact that the models oversimplify how animals actually use habitats, and the dynamic nature of animal
populations. Given the high rate of errors in cover-type models, any conclusions based on them should be taken with extreme
caution. We suggest that these models are best used as coarse filters to identify locations for further study in the field. 相似文献
12.
While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran. 相似文献
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14.
David K. Mueller 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1982,18(3):377-382
ABSTRACT: Mass balance models have been common tools in lake quality management for some years. However, verification for use on reservoirs, especially in the Western United States, has been seriously lacking, In this study, such a verification is attempted using data from the U.S EPA National Eutrophication Survey. Several models from the literature are compared for accuracy in application to the western reservoir data. Model standard error and correlation between estimated and observed reservoir phosphorus concentrations are the Criteria used for comparison. Standard errors am further used to calculate uncertainty of trophic state classification based on estimated phosphorus concentration. The model proposed by Dillon and Rigler (1974) proved most accurate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and standard error of 0.2, based on logarithmic transformed values. Deficiencies in the other models appear to & from coefficients fit to lake data and from inappropriate model formulation. 相似文献
15.
The Gunnison River in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park (BCNP) near Montrose, Colorado is a mixed gravel and
bedrock river with ephemeral side tributaries. Flow rates are controlled immediately upstream by a diversion tunnel and three
reservoirs. The management of the hydraulic control structures has decreased low-frequency, high-stage flows, which are the
dominant geomorphic force in bedrock channel systems. We developed a simple model to estimate the extent of sediment mobilization
at a given flow in the BCNP and to evaluate changes in the extent and frequency of sediment mobilization for flow regimes
before and after flow regulation in 1966. Our methodology provides a screening process for identifying and prioritizing areas
in terms of sediment mobility criteria when more precise systematic field data are unavailable. The model uses the ratio between
reach-averaged bed shear stress and critical shear stress to estimate when a particular grain size is mobilized for a given
reach. We used aerial photography from 1992, digital elevation models, and field surveys to identify individual reaches and
estimate reach-averaged hydraulic geometry. Pebble counts of talus and debris fan deposits were used to estimate regional
colluvial grain-size distributions. Our results show that the frequency of flows mobilizing river bank sediment along a majority
of the Gunnison River in the BCNP has significantly declined since 1966. The model results correspond well to those obtained
from more detailed, site-specific field studies carried out by other investigators. Decreases in the frequency of significant
sediment-mobilizing flows were more pronounced for regions within the BCNP where the channel gradient is lower. Implications
of these results for management include increased risk of encroachment of vegetation on the active channel and long-term channel
narrowing by colluvial deposits. It must be recognized that our methodology represents a screening of regional differences
in sediment mobility. More precise estimates of hydraulic and sediment parameters would likely be required for dictating quantitative
management objectives within the context of sediment mobility and sensitivity to changes in the flow regime. 相似文献
16.
Steven S. Carroll Noel Cressie 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1996,32(2):267-278
ABSTRACT: The need to monitor and forecast water resources accurately, particularly in the western United States, is becoming increasingly critical as the demand for water continues to escalate. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed a geostatistical model that is used to obtain areal estimates of snow water equivalent (the thtal water content in all phases of the snowpack), a major source of water in the West. The areal snow water equivalent estimates are used to update the hydrologic simulation models maintained by the NWS and designed to produce extended streamflow forecasts for river systems throughout the United States. An alternative geostatistical technique has been proposed to estimate snow water equivalent. In this research, we describe the two methodologies and compare the accuracy of the estimates produced by each technique. We illustrate their application and compare their estimation accuracy using snow data collected in the North Fork Clearwater River basin in Idaho. 相似文献
17.
Gary D. Tasker 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(6):1077-1083
ABSTRACT: Four methods for estimating the 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 20-year low flows for streams are compared by the bootstrap method. The bootstrap method is a Monte Carlo technique in which random samples are drawn from an unspecified sampling distribution defined from observed data. The nonparametric nature of the bootstrap makes it suitable for comparing methods based on a flow series for which the true distribution is unknown. Results show that the two methods based on hypothetical distributions (Log-Pearson III and Weibull) had lower mean square errors than did the Box-Cox transformation method or the Log-Boughton method which is based on a fit of plotting positions. 相似文献
18.
Mansour D. Leh Indrajeet Chaubey 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(4):844-856
Abstract: Successful nonpoint source pollution control using best management practice placement is a complex process that requires in‐depth knowledge of the locations of runoff source areas in a watershed. Currently, very few simulation tools are capable of identifying critical runoff source areas on hillslopes and those available are not directly applicable under all runoff conditions. In this paper, a comparison of two geographic information system (GIS)‐based approaches: a topographic index model and a likelihood indicator model is presented, in predicting likely locations of saturation excess and infiltration excess runoff source areas in a hillslope of the Savoy Experimental Watershed located in northwest Arkansas. Based on intensive data collected from a two‐year field study, the spatial distributions of hydrologic variables were processed using GIS software to develop the models. The likelihood indicator model was used to produce probability surfaces that indicated the likelihood of location of both saturation and infiltration excess runoff mechanisms on the hillslope. Overall accuracies of the likelihood indicator model predictions varied between 81 and 87% for the infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff locations respectively. On the basis of accuracy of prediction, the likelihood indicator models were found to be superior (accuracy 81‐87%) to the predications made by the topographic index model (accuracy 69.5%). By combining statistics with GIS, runoff source areas on a hillslope can be identified by incorporating easily determined hydrologic measurements (such as bulk density, porosity, slope, depth to bed rock, depth to water table) and could serve as a watershed management tool for identifying critical runoff source areas in locations where the topographic index or other similar methods do not provide reliable results. 相似文献
19.
Roles of land use resolution and unit-area load rates in assessment of diffuse nutrient emissions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In contrast to its counterparts in Europe and North America, the Australian National Pollutant Inventory (NPI) includes estimates of aggregated emissions of nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) from catchments and facilities. Sparse or inadequate data limit the extent to which nutrient exports may be estimated from direct observations. The paucity of data for calibration and simulation limits the use of sophisticated models in most Australian catchments. Therefore, a simple unit-area load model-Catchment Management Support System (CMSS)-was selected to estimate aggregated catchment emissions for the NPI. Estimates from models like CMSS are sensitive to spatial and categorical resolution of land uses identified within the catchment and to nutrient generation rates selected for each land use category. Using three Hawkesbury-Nepean subcatchments, we show that while high spatial resolution of land use mapping is useful, only four or five major land use categories with carefully selected generation rates were required to estimate potential nutrient exports sufficiently well and to determine subcatchments contributing most. Nutrient emission estimates proved to be highly dependent on selection of generation rates so a bootstrap technique was adopted to reduce subjectivity and to improve estimates of confidence limits. This led to a specification of new generation rates for Natural, Unimproved pasture, Rural and Urban land uses and to establishment of uncertainty limits. 相似文献
20.
Nicola J. van Wilgen Núria Roura-Pascual David M. Richardson 《Environmental management》2009,44(3):590-607
Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk
assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California
and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar
areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on
climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both
approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum
predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability).
Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians,
while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability
better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment
using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency
of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching
has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered
for thorough risk assessment.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献