我国应急预案体系现状及展望——以上海为例

应急预案在自然灾害等突发事件发生时可以起到迅速反应的作用,因此成为突发事件应急管理中重要的一环。我国的应急预案体系已经基本建成,但还存在着预案格式雷同、脱离部门实际、分级体系科学性和可操作性不强、不同预案间接洽性不够、预案建设数量质量不够、缺乏后续管理等种种问题。分析了国内应急预案体系的现状,并探讨了对应急预案体系的改进方法。     

Human immuno-deficiency virus and infant feeding in complex humanitarian emergencies: priorities and policy considerations

Issues surrounding mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS pose considerable challenges in complex humanitarian emergencies. The risk of vertical transmission through breastfeeding is well recognised, but safe alternatives are limited by the social, economic and environmental conditions of emergency situations. In 2000, the World Health Organisation published a technical report on behalf of the UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/UNAIDS Inter-agency Task Team on Mother-to-child Transmission of HIV which outlined revised recommendations for infant feeding by HIV-positive women. This paper outlines reasons why these recommendations may be insufficient during the initial stages of complex humanitarian emergencies and proposes recommendations for establishing infant-feeding policy. Methods of mother-to-child transmission of HIV are reviewed and recent research findings are discussed. Rationale for modifying the 2000 UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/UNAIDS infant-feeding recommendations in complex emergency situations is explored from the perspective of the infant, the mother and humanitarian field staff. Ethical limitations and future priorities are considered. The paper concludes with recommendations and a policy decision-making framework for consideration during the initial stages of humanitarian crises.     

Disaster preparedness for farmers: A methodology

In summary, four elements are considered to be essential for introducing a national system of agricultural disaster preparedness planning:

• (a) the initiative should be taken by the Ministry of Agriculture (or its equivalent); within project areas, the initiative should be taken by the project authority, although preferably within a national system;
• (b) contingency planning should form part of an annual/ seasonal agricultural production planning; appropriate budgetary allocations should be made at this stage;
• (c) regional or district agricultural officers should be given specific responsibility to collect relevant environmental and land use information for disaster-prone areas and to prepare relevant contingency plans; and
• (d) all agricultural officials, from the Ministry down to the lowest field level, should be trained in how to make and use disaster preparedness plans; local government representatives and officials should also be trained.

Training is regarded as the key element. This is a field where international agencies such as FAO and UNDRO could assist governments to improve their state of disaster preparedness. Voluntary agencies could also play an important role in training community leaders in the identification of disaster preparedness needs and possibilities.     

Disasters and disabled persons: An examination of the safety needs of a neglected minority

Disasters do not affect everyone in the same way. Safety needs of the ten per cnet of the population who are disabled prior to disaster must be ascertained; contingency plans and preparations should be made to ensure that disabled persons. Consideration of the safety needs of disabled persons in disasters seems to have beenlargely neglected by emergency services and those voluntary and statutory organizations directly concerned with disablement.     

Preparedness for emergency response: guidelines for the emergency planning process

Especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, governments worldwide have invested considerable resources in the writing of terrorism emergency response plans. Particularly in the United States, the federal government has created new homeland security organisations and urged state and local governments to draw up plans. This emphasis on the written plan tends to draw attention away from the process of planning itself and the original objective of achieving community emergency preparedness. This paper reviews the concepts of community preparedness and emergency planning, and their relationships with training, exercises and the written plan. A series of 10 planning process guidelines are presented that draw upon the preparedness literature for natural and technological disasters, and can be applied to any environmental threat.     

Development of urban planning guidelines for improving emergency response capacities in seismic areas of Iran

This paper presents the results of research carried out to improve emergency response activities in earthquake-prone areas of Iran. The research concentrated on emergency response operations, emergency medical care, emergency transportation, and evacuation—the most important issues after an earthquake with regard to saving the lives of victims. For each topic, some guidelines and criteria are presented for enhancing emergency response activities, based on evaluations of experience of strong earthquakes that have occurred over the past two decades in Iran, notably Manjil (1990), Bam (2003), Firouz Abad-Kojour (2004), Zarand (2005) and Broujerd (2006). These guidelines and criteria are applicable to other national contexts, especially countries with similar seismic and social conditions as Iran. The results of this study should be incorporated into comprehensive plans to ensure sustainable development or reconstruction of cities as well as to augment the efficiency of emergency response after an earthquake.     

An investigation into the socioeconomic aspects of two major earthquakes in Iran

An evaluation of the socioeconomic consequences of earthquakes is an essential part of the development of risk reduction and disaster management plans. However, these variables are not normally addressed sufficiently after strong earthquakes; researchers and relevant stakeholders focus primarily on the physical damage and casualties. The importance of the socioeconomic consequences of seismic events became clearer in Iran after the Bam earthquake on 26 December 2003, as demonstrated by the formulation and approval of various laws and ordinances. This paper reviews the country's regulatory framework in the light of the socioeconomic aspects of two major and destructive earthquakes: in Manjil–Rudbar in 1990, and in Bam in 2003. The results take the form of recommendations and practical strategies for incorporating the socioeconomic dimensions of earthquakes in disaster risk management planning. The results presented here can be applied in other countries with similar conditions to those of Iran in order to improve public preparedness and risk reduction.     

ENSO and Disaster: Droughts, Floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation Warm Events

The connection between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation and temperature variability worldwide is increasingly well understood. ENSO has been linked to droughts and flooding in some regions. This paper uses the disaster history database of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to examine the link between ENSO events and droughts or floods of sufficient magnitude to trigger international disasters. Worldwide, disasters triggered by droughts are twice as frequent during year two of ENSO warm events than during other years. No such relationship is apparent in the case of flood disasters. Drought disasters occur during year two of ENSO warm events significantly more frequently than in other years in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia. No regional pattern emerges from a comparable analysis of flood disasters. Those places likely to be affected by ENSO-triggered droughts can take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts.     

The Ethiopian crisis of 1999-2000: lessons learned,questions unanswered

During 1999-2000, Ethiopia was brought to the edge of a major disaster, with some 10 million people estimated to be in need offood assistance at the height of the crisis. A repeat of the catastrophic famine of 1984-5 was avoided, but the numbers of people affected, the loss of life and the destruction of livelihoods made this one of the most serious crises in the Horn of Africa in the past 15 years. The humanitarian community has been slow to recognise the lessons of 1999-2000, and there have been surprisingly few attempts to conduct a serious, post-event evaluation of the overall crisis and response. The label famine averted' seems to summarise the crisis to the satisfaction of most parties involved. This paper reviews the crisis, the events that led up to it and the response effort. It examines thefactors that contributed to making this crisis so serious, in order to draw conclusions and note issues that are relevant to current thinking about disaster preparedness and response - in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Some of the lessons learned from the 1999-2000 crisis are not new. However, the veryfact that mistakes have been repeated should be a lesson to the humanitarian community.     

The Yellow Fever Epidemic in Western Mali,September—November 1987: Why Did Epidemiological Surveillance Fail?

Recent yellow fever epidemics in West Africa have underlined the discrepancy between the official number of cases and deaths and those estimated by a retrospective epidemiological investigation. During the yellow fever epidemic that broke out in western Mali in September 1987, a total of 305 cases and 145 deaths were officially notified, but estimates revealed true figures abut five times higher. This paper attempts to discuss the factors that hindered early case detection and more complete reporting. They were, first, the insufficient training on the clinical diagnosis, the blood sampling method for laboratory confirmation, and the curative treatment of patients (resulting in low utilization of services); second, the lack of an action plan to prepare in advance a quick response to the epidemic, affecting reporting procedures at the peripheral level and active case-finding during the outbreak; and third, the lack of laboratory facilities for a quick confirmation of the disease.
The difficulties experienced during the yellow fever epidemic in Mali demonstrated the importance of a preparedness strategy for epidemic control, based on an integrated approach of epidemiological surveillance within basic health service activities. The need for regional collaboration and for institutionalized funds in the donor community that could be mobilized for epidemic preparedness activities is also emphasized.     

A critical analysis of earthquakes and urban planning in Turkey

The land use plans and policies of developed countries that live with the threat of earthquakes are gaining importance in reducing or eliminating the long‐term threat to people and property. In developing countries, however, these plans and policies seem to increase the level of vulnerability. This paper examines the effects of the earthquakes that have occurred in Turkey since 1992, with a particular focus on urbanisation and planning policies. It is based on extensive surveys carried out on location immediately after the earthquakes in Erzincan and Kocaeli‐Gölcük in 1992 and 1999, respectively. The analysis takes into account several factors, including the height of buildings, geological conditions and the construction period. The authors conclude that land use planning can serve as a very useful instrument for mitigating the extent of disaster damage if it is part of an appropriate planning system. In the case of Turkey, the planning system needs to be reorganised for this purpose.     

Reducing vulnerability to drought and famine: developmental approaches to relief

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.     

Normalising the Crisis in Africa

Developmental relief has become the central doctrine of 'good practice' in humanitarian responses to complex political emergencies. This is despite the fact that a proliferation of such emergencies reflects a failure of development for people in those countries in crisis. Drawing on case study material from Sudan, Somalia, Rwanda and Uganda, this paper challenges assumptions made about the efficacy of developmental relief models in complex emergencies. The trend towards developmental relief practices coincides with an increasing acceptance of higher levels of humanitarian distress in Africa. Myths of aid dependency and the pursuit of sustainable programming in the midst of war are linked to a global reduction in aid. The mantra of 'local solutions to local problems' locates the causes of crises firmly within those societies in crisis. It provides a premise for international disengagement, and the denial of international responsibility for the genesis and prolongation of humanitarian crises in Africa. Assigning solutions to the poor, the marginalised and victimised through enhanced 'participation' and local financing of services sustains a myth that development is occurring, when in fact levels of distress are rising.     

灾害风险评估中区域经济暴露价值的估算研究 ——以青海省为例

地区资本存量作为经济暴露指标,其准确核算是科学判断和施行精准投资的重要内容,也是评估灾害风险的关键基础.综合我国灾害风险评估及地区资本存量研究数据缺乏的现状以及青海省的地区特点,采用永续盘存法,首次尝试在地级市部门级的精细尺度上估算2003—2019年青海省地级市资本存量价值的变化,并对结果进行验证.研究结果表明:①西...     

Faith-based aid, globalisation and the humanitarian frontline: an analysis of Western-based Muslim aid organisations

This paper focuses on the emergence and modus operandi of Muslim faith-based aid organisations from the West, particularly those from the United Kingdom. Through case studies of Islamic Relief Worldwide and Muslim Hands, it examines the actual and potential added value generated by these humanitarian players in Muslim-majority contexts at times when aid actors from or associated with the West are being perceived by some as instrumental to the political agendas of Western powers, or are being confronted with the consequences thereof. The study analyses Muslim faith-based aid organisations' transnational networks, their implementing partnerships with local faith-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and their security position within and their access to insecure contexts, drawing on field examples and opinion from Central Asia, Iraq and Pakistan. It thereby argues that there is ground for an expansion of the role of Muslim aid actors, because of the existence of social and political realities in the field that cannot be always effectively tackled by the dominant international development approaches.     

Standardising and mapping open-source information for crisis regions: the case of post-conflict Iraq

Painting an accurate picture of the situation on the ground in countries in crisis is vital for the efficiency of humanitarian aid and reconstruction agencies. This study describes a method for standardising and mapping the plethora of open-source information. The test site for the study is post-conflict Iraq. Important information on aid distribution, reconstruction and security in Iraq can be derived from the reports of humanitarian aid agencies and the media, before being formatted, inserted into a database and mapped. The product is a visual, cartographic structure of otherwise random information, showing which organisations are working in the country, which thematic and geographic areas are being prioritized in the field, and which areas most frequently experience security events. This type of mapping not only highlights the overall working environment within different parts of the country, but it may also serve as a decision-making tool for donors and humanitarian aid agencies planning to deploy personnel.     

The impact of refugees on the health status and health services of host communities: Compounding bad with worse?

Although there have been a number of recent developments in our understanding of refugee health problems that have influenced policies and action, the effects of refugees on the health status and services of host communities remain relatively neglected. This article sets out to explain why this is an important issue with implications for policy, planning surveillance and evaluation, training and research.
The first sections outline some of the problems facing host governments and communities in Africa and discuss the changing rhetoric between the first and second International Conferences for Assistance to Refugees in Africa. A number of possible ways in which refugees could affect the individual, agent and environmental causes of disease are considered, as are the characteristics of the refugees, the host communities and the response which may all modify this impact.
Policy implications of the impact of the refugees, both negative and positive, are discussed, and detailed consideration is given to the pros and cons of integrated and parallel approaches to health care provision. The need to monitor carefully the health status and services of host communities is emphasized and recommendations are made for this and other essential developments relating to training and research.     

ENHANCING EVACUATION WARNING COMPLIANCE: SUGGESTIONS FOREMERGENCY PLANNING*

This review of incentives to evacuate is meaningful largely in the context of planning for and managing the consequences of the impact of riverine floods. Of course, incentives do not constitute an emergency plan. At best, they should be seen as suggestions for structuring some elements of a plan. Furthermore, the enumeration of incentives presented here is meant to be suggestive rather than exhaustive. A primary objective of this paper has been to underscore the importance of advance planning in coping with hazards and to argue that, even though limited, existing research can be productively used in the planning process. The incentives described here are based upon or drawn from empirical research on people's performance under flood disaster conditions. This reflects the view that it is important to build emergency planning around people's known reaction patterns. Too often emergency plans which are administratively devised turn out to be based upon misconceptions of how people react (cf. Drabek and Stephenson, 1971, p. 202; Dynes et al., 1972, p. 31) and, therefore, potentially create more difficulties than they solve. One must be cautioned, however, that although our data indicate that people say they would support the idea of various evacuation incentives examined here, these are attitudinal data and not performance data. Thus, the real test of evacuation incentives lies in their implementation and in evaluation data on pilot programs which, unfortunately, do not presently exist. The outlook for the feasibility of developing and utilizing evacuation incentives appears to be positive, though, judging from responses to our interviews. In the final analysis, it would appear to be wise to develop emergency plans which guide and channel citizen actions into complementary and productive protection behavior patterns. The present discussion of incentives to evacuate is intended to encourage data-based emergency planning.     

What happens to the state in conflict?: political analysis as a tool for planning humanitarian assistance

It is now part of received wisdom that humanitarian assistance in conflict and post-conflict situations may be ineffective or even counterproductive in the absence of an informed understanding of the broader political context in which so-called 'complex political emergencies' (CPEs) occur. Though recognising that specific cases have to be understood in their own terms, this article offers a framework for incorporating political analysis in policy design. It is based on a programme of research on a number of countries in Africa and Asia over the last four years. It argues that the starting-point should be an analysis of crises of authority within contemporary nation-states which convert conflict (a feature of all political systems) into violent conflict; of how such conflict may in turn generate more problems for, or even destroy, the state; of the deep-rooted political, institutional and developmental legacies of political violence; and of the difficulties that complicate the restoration of legitimate and effective systems of governance after the 'termination' of conflict. It then lists a series of questions which such an analysis would need to ask--less in order to provide a comprehensive check-list than to uncover underlying political processes and links. It is hoped these may be used not only to understand the political dynamics of emergencies, but also to identify what kinds of policy action should and should not be given priority by practitioners.     

Dead letter or living document? Ten years of the Code of Conduct for disaster relief

This paper examines the present value of the Code of Conduct for the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Disaster Relief, in view of discussions on neutrality and the Western bias of the humanitarian aid system, and assesses how it can retain its relevance in future. The Code of Conduct was launched just after the Rwanda genocide of April 1994. A decade later, the crises in Afghanistan and Iraq have sparked renewed interest in humanitarian principles and in whether the code can serve as an instrument to define humanitarianism and guide humanitarian decision-making and coordination. More than 300 organisations have now subscribed to it. This paper is based on the findings of a survey of code signatories and the outcomes of a conference on the value and future of the code, held in The Hague, Netherlands, in September 2004 to mark its tenth anniversary.