A wave change analysis (WCA) method for pipeline leak detection using Gaussian mixture model

This paper presents a novel pipeline leak detection scheme based on gradient and slope turns rejection (GSTR). Instead of monitoring the pipeline under constant working pressure, GSTR introduces a new testing method which obtains data during the transient periods of different working pressures. A novel pipeline leak detection method based on those transient data without failure history is proposed. Wavelet packet analysis (WPA) is applied to extract features which capture the dynamic characteristics from the non-stationary pressure data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimension of the feature space. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is utilized to approximate the density distribution of the lower-dimensional feature space which consists of the major principal components. Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used to determine the number of mixtures for the GMM and a density boosting method is applied to achieve better accuracy of the distribution estimation. An experimental case study for oil pipeline system is used as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

长管拖车气瓶声发射技术定位检测方法分析

长管拖车气瓶是盛装有危险介质的高压储运设备,能否进行及时有效的检验,是保障其安全可靠运行的关键。我国开始长管拖车气瓶的应用、研究时间不长,相关积累不充分,而现有的水压试验法对危险性缺陷不敏感。声发射检测是动态缺陷整体检测的有效方法,将其应用于长管拖车气瓶的检测可节省大量的时间和人力、物力。对框架式长管拖车气瓶进行了不拆车声发射定位试验,测定了瓶体上断铅源声发射信号随距离衰减的曲线,采用数值分析方法得到曲线拟合方程式,探讨总结出定位过程中声发射采集的关键参数——门槛、探头间距和声速的设定方法和初始值,以及拖车结构对定位的影响,为长管拖车气瓶声发射定期检验工作的开展提供了参考,在分析定位源强度、定位方法研究方面有重要意义。     

Numerical investigation of surface conduit parallel gas pipeline explosive based on the TNT equivalent weight method

With the rapid development of petroleum industry, the transport pipelines of oil and gas are increasingly constructed to minimize land use conflicts. Therefore, the parallel pipelines are unavoidable in order to save land resource, reduce the pipeline construction and maintenance costs. The economy and security of pipeline laying and running is the primary problem considered in pipeline construction, which the parallel spacing plays a decisive role to. The leakage of natural gas is very serious and dangerous due to its flammable and combustible. The explosive of leak gas causes impact failure to parallel pipeline. Specific to the surface conduit parallel gas pipeline, numerical simulation of leak natural gas explosive was carried out based on TNT equivalent weight method. Explosive damage degree of pipeline decreased with the pipeline distance increasing. Consulting with the pipeline ovalization strain design criteria and the combustion effect, the safety parallel natural gas pipeline space maybe at least 4 m to ensure the surface conduit parallel pipeline safely and steadily operation.     

Leak location of pipelines based on transient model and PSO-SVM

An improved and integrated approach of support vector machine and particle swarm optimization theory (PSO-SVM) is first used to detect the leak location of pipelines and overcome the problem of multiple leaks. The calibration and predictive ability of improved PSO-SVM is investigated and compared with that of other common method, back-propagation neural network (BPNN). Two conditions are evaluated. One with a leak involves a set of 20 samples, while another with two leaks has 127 samples. Both internal and external validations are performed to validate the performance of the resulting models. The results show that, for the two conditions, the values calculated by improved PSO-SVM are in good agreement with those simulated by transient model, and the performances of improved PSO-SVM models are superior to those of BPNN. This paper provides a new and effective method to inspect the multiple leak locations, and also reveals that improved PSO-SVM can be used as a powerful tool for studying the leak of pipeline.     

城市管道天然气在土壤中泄漏扩散实验研究

天然气在土壤中扩散行为的实验研究对埋地管道泄漏点的科学定位及泄漏事故的预防具有重要意义.采用全尺度气体泄漏实验系统,模拟真实埋地管道泄漏场景,对泄漏后的天然气在土壤中的扩散对流过程进行实验研究.基于自行研制的气体检测与数据采集系统和GasClam地下气体在线监测仪,分析天然气在土壤中的对流扩散规律.结果表明:埋地管道泄漏后天然气在土壤中的对流扩散过程可以分为4个阶段:孕育阶段、陡然增长阶段、缓慢增长阶段和稳定阶段,其浓度随泄漏时间的变化过程符合S型曲线特征.天然气扩散至检测点所需时间与距泄漏口距离呈现近似的幂指数关系.当检测点位于泄漏口附近区域时,泄漏压力起主导作用.当检测点位于远离泄漏口区域时,泄漏量起主导作用.     

城市天然气管道半定量风险评估方法研究

以实现天然气管道风险评估资源的合理分配，确定天然气管道定量风险评估的重点为目标，改进燃气管道风险评估方法的肯特模型，探求城市天然气管道的半定量风险评估方法；分析了城市埋地天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的影响因子，并研究其评分标准；分别给出了城市天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的等级划分标准，并运用半定量风险矩阵进行燃气管道单元的风险初步排序，以确定高风险管道单元；对城市天然气管道进行半定量风险评估，可为识别管道沿线高风险后果区域、风险动态排序、风险预警及制定事故应急预案等提供科学依据和方法指导，具有重要的工程应用价值。     

油气管道第三方施工损伤风险控制方法研究

针对当前油气管道运行的现状指出第三方施工损伤风险控制的紧迫性,根据第三方施工损伤风险辨识的内容,以及油气管道第三方施工损伤风险评估中人为因素分析理论,阐述第三方施工损伤风险的影响因素,通过计算各因素的灰色关联度辨识出了第三方损伤风险的主控因素,并提出了第三方施工损伤风险控制方法.     

基于风险的城市埋地燃气管道安全评价模型及应用

城市埋地燃气管道一旦失效会产生泄漏,甚至引发火灾爆炸等事故,造成人员伤亡和财产损失等严重后果,影响社会稳定,因此其安全运行十分重要。由于城市地下环境的复杂性,使得埋地燃气管道失效的因素多种多样,且具有模糊性;由于城市地面状况各异,所以构成失效后果的因素也具有不确定性。文章以某市在役燃气管道为例,使用模糊数学语言表达了埋地燃气管道的失效可能性和失效后果,采用模糊综合评价模型对燃气管道的失效可能性和失效后果进行了评价,并以美国石油协会(API)风险矩阵表征了埋地燃气管道的风险等级,得到不同管道单元的风险级别和管道单元数,根据不同的风险等级采取不同的策略或措施,完善管道的完整性管理,降低管道的使用风险,确保城市燃气管网的正常安全运行。     

Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system: Experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.     

基于Monte-Carlo方法的长输管道气体扩散模拟研究

目前气体扩散模拟研究多采用流体力学的计算方法,分析气体扩散过程中的动力学特性.有限体积、有限元等方法都需要对事故区域整体进行网格划分,计算过程效率无法满足长输管道事故应急跨区域、多气象以及复杂地形的要求.Monte-Carlo方法利用RAMS预测的平均风场,模拟有限气体粒子在风场中的随机行走特性,有效地弥补了计算效率与网格精度冲突所导致的模拟性能下降的缺点.通过HAVEGE方法收集计算的硬件信息熵形成随机源,修正了以往伪随机数问题,增强了Monte-Carlo方法的计算精度.结果表明Monte-Carlo气体扩散模拟研究方法满足了长输管道事故灾害应急决策的需要.     

架空及埋地天然气管道泄漏扩散数值研究

天然气在管道运输过程中,由于含硫等腐蚀性气体对管道内壁的腐蚀作用,在管内其他压力的作用下,会引起穿孔泄漏。泄漏后的天然气扩散后,可能会引发火灾、中毒或爆炸。因此,进行天然气管道泄漏扩散及数值模拟研究,对管道输送安全运营和保障人生财产安全意义重大。该文利用CFD软件对架空及埋地含硫天然气管道穿孔泄漏后的甲烷、硫化氢气体的扩散进行了数值模拟。结果表明,受土壤毛孔阻力的影响,埋地天然气管道泄漏爆炸范围比架空天然气管道泄漏要小,但其在地面的影响时间长,硫化氢的中毒范围比架空要低30m左右。为天然气的安全输送及环境保护提供了理论依据。     

基于信息融合的天然气采气管线安全性评价

信息融合技术充分利用多源信息的互补性、综合性,可以极大地提高评价指标信息的质量和可信度。针对天然气采气管线运行环境复杂性带来的采气管线安全检测与评价在时间与空间的不确定性,通过采集以及分析天然气采气管线的宏观检测信息、无损检测信息、理化检测信息以及力学性能信息,提出了一种利用信息融合技术的采气管线安全性评价的模型,给出了该评价模型的步骤,并对某在役运行的天然气采气管线进行了安全性评价,并获得满意的效果。评价结果表明该管线存在不同程度腐蚀,安全性评价表明该管线可安全运行。     

基于四阶B-样条最小二乘法的油气管道凹痕缺陷应变计算方法

针对油气管道上的凹痕缺陷,ASME B31.8提出采用基于应变的评价方法,但在内检测数据到应变求解的过程中,缺少噪声消除和轮廓拟合的相关方法。提出了采用四阶B-样条最小二乘拟合算法将检测数据进行噪声消除和轮廓拟合,实现从含有噪声的检测数据到应变求解的应变评价方法。采用文中所提方法和有限元方法,详细计算了几种典型凹痕的轴向弯曲应变、环向弯曲应变及其总应变。对比结果表明,该方法不仅能够较为精确的计算出弯曲应变值,还能得到较准确的弯曲应变分布情况。环向弯曲应变受在线检测工具精度的限制存在一定误差。计算发现,现有标准中忽略了环向薄膜应变分量,这使得总应变的计算结果不够准确。     

油气管道盗孔接管修复结构强度分析

管道打孔现象作为第三方破坏的主要形式威胁着油气输送管道的安全运行。焊接接管是一种常见的管道盗孔修复补强方法,但焊接接管导致管道几何形状突变,破坏了原有的应力分布。建立管道盗孔接管修复结构的有限元模型,运用非线性有限元方法对管道在内压载荷作用下的应力分布进行了计算。研究结果表明:焊接接管导致了管道开孔附近区域局部应力集中,且随内压增加应力集中面积逐渐加大;最大应力点出现在管道开孔0o处(管道开孔内壁轴向位置);在保证焊接工艺的情况下,较小的接管管径、与管道主体壁厚相近的接管壁厚具有更好的修复效果。     

基于稳定风场的架空天然气管道泄漏数值模拟

针对架空管道天然气泄漏问题,考虑管道自身对泄漏扩散的影响,利用计算流体力学(CFD)软件建立天然气管道三维泄漏模型,为提高模拟可信性和合理性,先对计算流域风场进行稳态模拟,再对天然气泄漏扩散过程进行瞬态模拟,分析天然气泄漏扩散规律及风速对泄漏扩散的影响。结果表明:在稳态风场模拟中,管道附近风场受管道影响十分明显,管道上下侧面风速极高;在瞬态天然气泄漏扩散模拟中,天然气泄漏初期的扩散受风速影响明显,验证了先进行稳态风场模拟的必要性,泄漏扩散达到稳定状态后出现气云沉降、单侧分布、尾部分叉、风速影响扩散距离的特征;同等风速条件下,较小浓度边界扩散范围大,达到稳定所需时间短,同等浓度边界条件下,风速与扩散影响面积和浓度边界达到稳定所用时间成反比。     

Experimental study on the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disaster

By using the self-developed triaxial servo-controlled seepage equipment for thermo-fluid-solid coupling of coal containing gas and the self-developed coal and gas outburst simulation test device, experiments to study the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disasters. The results show that: (i) gas seepage decreases the strength of coal containing gas and accelerates its failure process; (ii) under the same gas pressure, the confining pressure is larger, the more difficult the gas flows and the greater the intensity of coal containing gas is; (iii) in the process of coal and gas outburst, the greater the vertical ground stress is, the more powerful the outburst will be; (iv) the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disasters is as follows: firstly, gas seepage weakens the mechanical properties of coal body, which makes it much easier for coal and gas outburst to occur; secondly, on the same effect of external force, it will be easy to form a high gas pressure zone in the coal body under the difficult condition of gas seepage, and accumulate more gas compression energy, which is the energy source for coal and gas outburst, and it is also the main dynamic source to throw and grind the coal.     

油气管道风险分析的质量评价研究

从风险分析的不确定性入手,建立了管道风险分析的质量评价观点.基于油气管道风险分析的实施步骤,提出用检查表法对风险分析的完整过程进行质量评价,利用风险评价员的一致性和有效性指标对其评价结果进行质量优劣评定.鉴于油气管道风险分析中普遍采用评分指标法对事故发生概率进行估计,依据采取这种行为所要承担损失风险的大小程度,提出用风险函数法对这种半定量评价法的合理性进行质量评价.实例应用分析表明,本文提出的质量评价方法不仅可以辨识风险分析过程中的人因缺陷,而且可对油气管道风险分析结果的质量进行量化评价,有利于提高人们对风险分析结果的认同度.     

基于TZS法分析天然气管道运输的个人风险

采用TZS法,对天然气管道运输潜在的个人风险进行定量评估,分析过程中引入致死长度来表征天然气管道运输对位于某一特定点的人造成的危险程度,评估结果用风险廓线来表达.以靖边-西安天然气输送工程为实例进行风险计算,结果表明:靖西线的安边到赵家口段,距天然气管道60m处的个人风险值在1.37×10-5-3.38×10-51/a之间,处于风险合理可接受区域.其中,由外部干扰导致的个人风险值在7.10×10-6-1.80×10-5 1/a之间,约占总个人风险值的1/2,说明外部干扰是引发该段天然气管道运输风险的主要原因.研究结果为靖西线的安全管理及现有管线的调整提供科学依据.