A three-dimensional pollutant transport model in orthogonal curvilinear and sigma coordinate system for Pearl river estuary

In this paper, the development of a three-dimensional numerical pollutant transport model, which is coupled with a previously developed hydrodynamic model, is delineated in details. Special features of the model include orthogonal curvilinear coordinate in the horizontal direction and sigma coordinate in the vertical direction. Besides, a simple but efficient open boundary condition of pollutant transport is adopted. It is then applied to simulate the transport of a representative water quality parameter chemical oxygen demand in Manganese (COD_Mn) in the Pearl river estuary, which is the largest estuary in South China. It can be shown, from the simulated results, that there exists a transboundary action between Guangdong province and Hong Kong special administrative region for the pollutants in the wastewater discharged from Pearl river delta region.     

Sources and characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in two largest cities in Pearl River Delta Region,China

PM_2.5 samples were collected at five sites in Guangzhou and Hong Kong, Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR), China in both summer and winter during 2004–2005. Elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) in these samples were measured. The OC and EC concentrations ranked in the order of urban Guangzhou > urban Hong Kong > background Hong Kong. Total carbonaceous aerosol (TCA) contributed less to PM_2.5 in urban Guangzhou (32–35%) than that in urban Hong Kong (43–57%). The reason may be that, as an major industrial city in South China, Guangzhou would receive large amount of inorganic aerosol from all kinds of industries, however, as a trade center and seaport, urban Hong Kong would mainly receive organic aerosol and EC from container vessels and heavy-duty diesel trucks. At Hong Kong background site Hok Tsui, relatively lower contribution of TCA to PM_2.5 may result from contributions of marine inorganic aerosol and inland China pollutant. Strong correlation (R²=0.76–0.83) between OC and EC indicates minor fluctuation of emission and the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in urban Guangzhou. Weak correlation between OC and EC in Hong Kong can be related to the impact of the long-range transported aerosol from inland China. Averagely, secondary OC (SOC) concentrations were 3.8–5.9 and 10.2–12.8 μg m⁻³, respectively, accounting for 21–32% and 36–42% of OC in summer and winter in Guangzhou. The average values of 4.2–6.8% for SOA/ PM_2.5 indicate that SOA was minor component in PM_2.5 in Guangzhou.     

Use of high-resolution MM5/CALMET/CALPUFF system: SO2 apportionment to air quality in Hong Kong

Recent research has highlighted the substantial health-related costs of air pollution in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and the potential threat from air pollution to HKSARs economic competitiveness. In order to address the air pollution problems, this paper seeks to analyse the individual contributions of major sulphur dioxide (SO₂) sources in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR) (Pearl River Delta + HKSAR) on the air quality in the HKSAR. This study employed the coupling of the MM5/CALMET system with the CALPUFF, the multi-layer, non-steady-state puff dispersion model, where major power plants, marine vessels and vehicles, all in the PRDR, are taken into account. The observation data and simulation results at 11 Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD) general (non-road-side) stations are analyzed. Urban (in-zone) and Rural (out-zone) stations are defined in order to examine the SO₂ contribution of different emission sources in different regions of the HKSAR. The model results show that the contribution of the HKSAR marine sources is significant both in summer and in winter, especially for the locations around the in-zone stations (in general 60%, and 55% in summer and winter respectively). In addition, the contribution of the HKSAR power plants is slightly higher than that of the PRD power plants in early summer, with a contribution difference of up to 20% when the prevailing wind is from the south. However, in late summer, this situation reverses. In winter, the contribution of the PRD power plants is two to three times greater than that of the HKSAR power plants. Moreover, Yantian port affects the northern part of the HKSAR when a northeasterly wind dominates the HKSAR. In order to solve these air pollution problems, the main implication of these results suggests that the HKSAR government, in close co-operation with the Guangdong government, needs to take immediate action.     

Local and regional anthropogenic influence on PM2.5 elements in Hong Kong

Hong Kong's persistent unhealthy level of fine particulate matter is a current public health challenge, complicated by the city being located in the rapidly industrializing Pearl River Delta Region of China. While the sources of the region's fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) are still not well understood, this study provides new source information through ground measurements and statistical analysis of 24 elements associated with particulate matter collected on filters. Field measurements took place over 4 months (October 2002, December 2002, March 2003, and June 2003) at seven sites throughout the Pearl River Delta, with three sites located in Hong Kong and four sites in the neighboring province, Guangdong. The 4-month average element concentrations show significant variation throughout the region, with higher levels of nearly every species seen among the northern Guangdong sites in comparison to Hong Kong. The high correlation (Pearson r>0.8) and similar magnitudes of 11 species (Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, Zn, Br, Rb, and Pb) at three contrasting sites in Hong Kong indicate that sources external to Hong Kong dominate the regional levels of these elements. Further correlative analysis compared Hong Kong against potential source areas in Guangdong Province (Shenzhen, Zhongshan, and Guangzhou). Moderate correlation of sulfur for all pairings of Hong Kong sites with three Guangdong sites in developed areas (average Pearson r of 0.52–0.94) supports the importance of long-distance transport impacting the region as a whole, although local sources also clearly impact observed concentrations. Varying correlative characteristics for zinc when Hong Kong sites are paired with Shenzhen (average r=0.86), Guangzhou (average r=−0.65) and Zhongshan (average r=0.45) points to a source area located south of Guangzhou and locally impacting Zhongshan. The concentration distribution and correlative characteristics of bromide point to sources located within the Pearl River Delta, but the specific location is yet inconclusive. Uniquely poor correlation of eight species (Al, Si, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, Rb, and Pb) for the pairing of Hong Kong sites with Guangzhou, in addition to the relatively higher concentrations measured at Guangzhou, indicates a significant regional impact due to land development and industrial activities in the Guangzhou vicinity.     

The influence of tropical cyclone Melor on PM10 concentrations during an aerosol episode over the Pearl River Delta region of China: Numerical modeling versus observational analysis

In this article, numerical simulations and observational analyses have been made for the aerosol episode that occurred over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China during 1–3 November 2003. An air quality modeling system that consisted of the mesoscale model MM5, chemical transport model MODELS-3/CMAQ, and air pollutant emission model SMOKE, was employed. Studies have shown that this particulate matter (PM) pollution episode was apparently associated with the activity of tropical cyclone (TC) Melor. Model simulations revealed that Melor spawned this PM episode through dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The strong compensating subsidence induced by Melor's peripheral circulations created favorable meteorological conditions that enhanced local aerosol pollution. This strong downward motion produced significant adiabatic warming (2–4 °C daily) and dramatic drying in the low-level troposphere over the PRD. As a result, the PRD region was blanketed with a dry and warm air layer that strengthened the static stability of the lower troposphere. The descending motion also tended to dramatically lower the heights of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) through its dynamic effect. The fair weather created by this synoptic pattern further intensified the nocturnal temperature inversions through enhanced radiative cooling. All of these factors promoted a stagnant local atmosphere with very light winds near the surface. The horizontal and vertical dispersions of locally emitted aerosol particles were largely suppressed, leading to the accumulation of large amounts of PMs near local emission sources in the PRD region. As Melor drew near, changes in surface winds strengthened the horizontal transport of aerosol particles from inland sources to the area of Hong Kong downstream. This horizontal advection greatly contributed to the high PM₁₀ (particulate matters less than 10 μm in diameters) concentrations in Hong Kong.     

Chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminants in Hong Kong surficial sediments.

Twenty surficial sediments were sampled from nearshore Hong Kong waters during 1997-1998, and analyzed for a range of chlorinated pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Results showed that concentrations (on a dry weight basis) of total HCHs were in the range 0.1-16.7 ng g-1, and total DDTs 0.3-14.8 ng g-1. PCBs, measured as an Aroclor 1242, 1248, 1254, 1260 (1:1:1:1) mixture, were found to be in a range of 0.5-97.9 ng g-1, and were at highest concentrations in Victoria Harbour. Results indicated that chlorinated pesticides and PCBs in Hong Kong nearshore sediments were most likely derived from waste discharge from a variety of sources, including agricultural, sewage, industrial waste disposal and shipping-related activities. In addition, as the north and west sides of Hong Kong are subject to influence from the Pearl River (due mainly to agricultural activities in the Pearl River Delta, and to a lesser extent developments around the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone), these inputs are also thought to be likely sources of contamination.     

PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB in Hong Kong air in relation to their regional transport in the Pearl River Delta region

PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB were measured in 142 air samples of Hong Kong. The annual average PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB concentrations obtained for Hong Kong air at Tap Mun (PCDD/F: 1724+/-1984; dioxin-like PCB: 1572+/-1170 fg m(-3)), Yuen Long (PCDD/F: 2927+/-2695; dioxin-like PCB: 4331+/-1962 fg m(-3)) and Tsuen Wan (PCDD/F: 1875+/-1502; dioxin-like PCB: 2972+/-1510 fg m(-3)) from January 2004 to March 2005 were comparable to other urban centers around the world and were within the Japanese and USA ambient air quality guidelines. A clear seasonal pattern was observed for PCDD/F, generally with a 50-60 times higher air concentration in winter when background northerly wind was weaker and land-sea breeze prevailed, resulting in regional transport; and a lower concentration in summer, due to the inflow of clean oceanic southeasterly wind from the South China Sea. A higher WHO-TEQ value of dioxin-like PCB (mainly attributed to the relatively higher WHO-TEQ value of PCB 126) in Yuen Long during winter, compared with other months, could also be related to the regional transport by the winter monsoon wind and the low mixing height in winter. Spatially, air concentrations of PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB demonstrated a west-to-east gradient (with Yuen Long>Tsuen Wan>Tap Mun). It is suggested that PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB were transported into the western airshed of Hong Kong from the Pearl River Delta by land-sea breeze circulation and confined to the northwestern part, due to the blocking effect of the northwestern airshed in Hong Kong.     

Air ventilation impacts of the “wall effect” resulting from the alignment of high-rise buildings

The objective of this study is to investigate the air ventilation impacts of the so called “wall effect” caused by the alignment of high-rise buildings in complex building clusters. The research method employs the numerical algorithm of computational fluid dynamics (CFD – FLUENT) to simulate the steady-state wind field in a typical Hong Kong urban setting and investigate pollutant dispersion inside the street canyon utilizing a pollutant transport model. The model settings of validation study were accomplished by comparing the simulation wind field around a single building block to wind tunnel data. The results revealed that our model simulation is fairly close to the wind tunnel measurements. In this paper, a typical dense building distribution in Hong Kong with 2 incident wind directions (0° and 22.5°) is studied. Two performance indicators are used to quantify the air ventilation impacts, namely the velocity ratio (VR) and the retention time (T_r) of pollutants at the street level. The results indicated that the velocity ratio at 2 m above ground was reduced 40% and retention time of pollutants increased 80% inside the street canyon when high-rise buildings with 4 times height of the street canyon were aligned as a “wall” upstream. While this reduction of air ventilation was anticipated, the magnitude is significant and this result clearly has important implications for building and urban planning.     

On the local and regional influence on ground-level ozone concentrations in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a densely populated city situated in the fast developing Pearl River Delta of southern China. In this study, the recent data on ozone (O3) and related air pollutants obtained at three sites in Hong Kong are analyzed to show the variations of O3 in urban, sub-urban and rural areas and the possible regional influences. Highest monthly averaged O3 was found at a northeastern rural site and lowest O3 level was observed at an urban site. The levels of NOx, CO, SO2 and PM10 showed a different spatial pattern with the highest level in the urban site and lowest at the rural site. Analysis of chemical species ratios such as SO2/NOx and CO/NOx indicated that the sites were under the influences of local and regional emissions to varying extents reflecting the characteristics of emission sources surround the respective sites. Seasonal pattern of O3 is examined. Low O3 level was found in summer and elevated levels occurred in autumn and spring. The latter appears different from the previous result obtained in 1996 indicating a single maximum occurring in autumn. Principal component analysis was used to further elucidate the relationships of air pollutants at each site. As expected, the O3 variation in the northeastern rural area was largely determined by regional chemical and transport processes, while the O3 variability at the southwestern suburban and urban sites were more influenced by local emissions. Despite the large difference in O3 levels across the sites, total potential ozone (O3+NO2) showed little variability. Cases of high O3 episodes were presented and elevated O3 levels were formed under the influence of tropical cyclone bringing in conditions of intense sunlight, high temperature and light winds. Elevated O3 levels were also found to correlate with enhanced ratio of SO2 to NOx, suggesting influence of regional emissions from the adjacent Pearl River Delta region.     

Numerical simulation of the urban boundary layer over the complex terrain of Hong Kong

Due to the complexity of the underlying surface, urban boundary layers may exhibit very different wind-temperature field structures compared with rural areas. In this study, an urban boundary layer model with a resolution of 500 m is applied to Hong Kong, a place characterized by complex topography with high mountains and dense urban developments. Five surface land use types are considered; grass and shrub land, trees, water, old urban areas and new town developments. The urban boundary layer model is embedded into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model, version 5 (MM5). The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis dataset. The modeling approach therefore takes into account both the mesoscale background field and the urban underlying surface. The model is applied to the simulation of a pollution episode in Hong Kong. Results show good agreement with meteorological data for the surface winds and temperature. The model successfully simulates the urban heat island and the occurrence of a sea–land breeze circulation, and their impact on air pollutant transport and dispersion.     

Determination of selected antibiotics in the Victoria Harbour and the Pearl River, South China using high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry

Nine selected antibiotics in the Victoria Harbour of Hong Kong and the Pearl River at Guangzhou, South China, were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. The results showed that the concentrations of antibiotics were mainly below the limit of quantification (LOQ) in the marine water of Victoria Harbour. However, except for amoxicillin, all of the antibiotics were detected in the Pearl River during high and low water seasons with the median concentrations ranging from 11 to 67 ng/L, and from 66 to 460 ng/L, respectively; and the concentrations in early spring were about 2-15 times higher than that in summer with clearer diurnal variations. It was suggested that the concentrations of antibiotics in the high water season were more affected by wastewater production cycles due to quick refreshing rate, while those in the low water season may be more sensitive to the water column dynamics controlled by tidal processes in the river.     

Source analysis of high particulate matter days in Hong Kong

This study identifies major contributing sources of high particulate matter (PM) days in Hong Kong and conducive meteorological conditions leading to high PM. The PM₁₀ chemical composition of 3393 ambient samples collected at ten monitoring stations in Hong Kong during 1998–2005 were used as input for positive matrix factorization (PMF) modeling to identify and quantify the aerosol sources in Hong Kong. Days with PM₁₀ levels exceeding 56 μg m^?3, the average plus one standard deviation of the mass concentration of all samples, are defined as high PM days. A total of 401 samples fell in the high PM category during the study period. Biomass burning, secondary sulfate and secondary nitrate were found to be the major contributors leading to high PM, responsible for 68–73% of PM₁₀ mass on high PM days. The contributions by these sources on high PM days were 140–180% higher than their respective average concentration contributions. These sources were identified to be regional sources on the grounds of little spatial variation in their concentrations among the monitoring stations and a temporal pattern of higher in the winter and lower in the summer. Sampling days of high PM in 2004 and 2005 were individually examined for weather charts and regional surface wind maps. Weak high pressures over mainland China were the most important synoptic event leading to high PM days in the fall and winter, while typhoon episodes were responsible for most summer cases. Approximately 80% of the high PM days were in the fall and winter months (September–February). Almost all the high PM days were associated with northwesterly, northerly or northeasterly regional transport. Anthropogenic primary sources (coal combustion, vehicular exhaust, and residue oil combustion) showed the highest contributions associated with northwesterly wind, indicating the strong influence of the more urbanized areas to the northwest of Hong Kong in the Pearl River Delta region.     

Heavy metals and Pb isotopic composition of aerosols in urban and suburban areas of Hong Kong and Guangzhou,South China—Evidence of the long-range transport of air contaminants

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in South China has placed great strain on the environment and on human health. In the present study, the total suspended particulate matter (TSP) in the urban and suburban areas of Hong Kong and Guangzhou, the two largest urban centres in South China, was sampled from December 2003 to January 2005. The samples were analysed for the concentrations of major elements (Al, Fe, Mg and Mn) and trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, V and Zn), and for Pb isotopic composition. Elevated concentrations of metals, especially Cd, Pb, V and Zn, were observed in the urban and suburban areas of Guangzhou, showing significant atmospheric trace element pollution. Distinct seasonal patterns were observed in the heavy metal concentrations of aerosols in Hong Kong, with higher metal concentrations during the winter monsoon period, and lower concentrations during summertime. The seasonal variations in the metal concentrations of the aerosols in Guangzhou were less distinct, suggesting the dominance of local sources of pollution around the city. The Pb isotopic composition in the aerosols of Hong Kong had higher ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios in winter, showing the influence of Pb from the northern inland areas of China and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, and lower ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios in summer, indicating the influence of Pb from the South Asian region and from marine sources. The back trajectory analysis showed that the enrichment of heavy metals in Hong Kong and Guangzhou was closely associated with the air mass from the north and northeast that originated from northern China, reflecting the long-range transport of heavy metal contaminants from the northern inland areas of China to the South China coast.     

DDT levels in human milk in Hong Kong, 2001-02

High levels of p,p'-DDT were detected in Hong Kong breast milk sampled in 1976 and 1985. Monitoring DDT levels in human breast milk in this region is important to identify trends in exposure. As part of the 2002-03 WHO/EURO coordinated exposure study, the concentrations of DDT and its metabolites were determined in 10 pooled milk samples classified by geographic origin and dietary history, comprising milk samples from 238 primiparous mothers giving birth in Hong Kong. Analysis was performed by Gas Chromatography (GC) with electron capture detector and confirmed by GC/Mass Spectrometry. The sum-DDT concentration (range: 0.92-2.05mg/kg fat) was age-dependent and indicated a decreasing trend since the 1970s. Mothers who recently came from mainland China had higher p,p'-DDT to p,p'-DDE ratios, suggesting a more recent exposure compared to women mainly residing in Hong Kong. The average Hong Kong sum-DDT level (1.50mg/kg fat) was among the highest of the contemporary levels (range: 0.12-1.97mg/kg fat; median: 0.40mg/kg fat) in the 16 countries/regions participating in the 2002-03 WHO/EURO exposure study. This is probably due to the previous extensive DDT exposure and continuing use of DDT in agriculture in mainland China. Despite the apparent decrease of DDT body load over 30 years, the environmental health hazard from DDT contamination in the Pearl River Delta region remains a concern. Measures to eradicate illegal use of DDT in mainland China and regular food monitoring programs are needed in the region. Despite the presence of DDT and other persistent organic pollutants in human breast milk, breastfeeding should continue to be strongly supported for its life-long benefits to infants.     

Heavy metal and organic contaminants in mangrove ecosystems of China: a review

China’s rapid economic growth has been accompanied by increasing environmental pollution. Mangrove ecosystems are now facing greater pollution pressures due to elevated chemical discharges from various land-based sources. Data on the levels of heavy metals and organic pollutants in mangrove compartments (sediments, plants, zoobenthos, and fish) in China over the past 20 years have been summarized to evaluate the current pollution status of the mangrove ecosystem. Overall, the Pearl River and Jiulong River estuaries were severely polluted spots. Concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in mangrove sediments of Guangdong, Fujian, and Hong Kong were higher than those from Guangxi and Hainan. The pollution status was closely linked to industrialization and urbanization. The highest concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were found in mangrove sediments from Hong Kong, followed by Fujian and Guangdong. Mangrove plants tend to have low-enriched ability for heavy metals and organic pollutants. Much higher levels of Pb, Cd, and Hg were observed in mollusks.     

A study of surface ozone and the relation to complex wind flow in Hong Kong

Ozone measurements made from 5 sites in Hong Kong have been analyzed, including those from one upwind, one downwind, and three urban locales. The data are analyzed in terms of the seasonal and diurnal trends. A subset of data in autumn is further analyzed to study the relationship between the ozone spatial pattern and wind flow as well as other meteorological parameters. The results show that averaged ozone levels at most sites exhibit maxima in autumn, which appears to be a unique feature for eastern Asia. On average the daily maximum 1-h concentrations are found to be higher in the western (normally downwind) site than those on the eastern side and in urban areas. Examination of surface wind patterns and other meteorological parameters suggest that elevated ozone concentrations on the western side occur during the days with intense solar radiation, light winds, and in the presence of a unique wind circulation. The wind reversal in the western parts under the “convergence” flow is believed to be an important cause of the high-ozone events observed there. Such wind flow may re-circulate/transport nearby urban plumes (in this case the Hong Kong–Shenzhen urban complex). Examination of chemical data from the western site has shown that averaged afternoon SO₂ to NO_x ratios on days with wind reversal are larger than those of typical urban Hong Kong and that a significant SO₂ enhancement was clearly indicated on several occasions. The SO₂ enhancement may be interpreted as being the evidence to suggest the contribution of regional sources and/or Hong Kong’s power plants (both containing high SO₂). A case study has shown that when moderately strong northwesterly wind prevails, elevated ozone and SO₂ can be transported to western Hong Kong from the inner Pearl Delta region. This study has also indicated that under the impact of ENE winds the eastern side of Hong Kong is not frequently affected by the re-circulating ozone plumes present in the western side.     

Ozone episodes in urban Hong Kong 1994–1999

Summer pollution episodes in Hong Kong are related to the passage of tropical storms close to the territory. Between 1994 and 1999, there were six territory-wide ozone episodes in Hong Kong during which the Hong Kong Air Quality Objective for ozone (240 μg m⁻³, 1 h) was violated. The maximum O₃ concentration for the period was 334 μg m⁻³ recorded in August 1999. Synoptically, tropical storms were in the vicinity on all the episode days. Northwesterly/westerly winds induced by the storms are believed to cause ozone precursor emissions from local power plants in the western part of Hong Kong to impact the territory, and at the same time allowing the import of emissions from upwind sources along the mainland coast. Other important meteorological factors that contribute to the occurrence of the episode events include: stable atmospheres, morning break-up of nocturnal inversions, low winds, strong solar radiation and high temperatures. Trajectory analysis of airflows at 850 hPa confirms the long-range pollutant transport. The strong correlation between non-sea-salt sulphate (NS-SO₄) and selenium for the summer of 1999 indicates that the main source of high levels of NS-SO₄ in summer in Hong Kong is coal combustion. The correlation between arsenic (As) and vanadium (V) for the summers of 1996–1999 suggests a concomitant influence of coal and residual oil combustion in the region.     

Seasonal variation of air pollution index: Hong Kong case study

Air pollution is an important and popular topic in Hong Kong as concerns have been raised about the health impacts caused by vehicle exhausts in recent years. In Hong Kong, sulphur dioxide SO2, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitric oxide (NO), carbon monoxide (CO), and respirable suspended particulates (RSP) are major air pollutants caused by the dominant usage of diesel fuel by goods vehicles and buses. These major pollutants and the related secondary pollutant, e.g., ozone (O3), become and impose harmful impact on human health in Hong Kong area after the northern shifting of major industries to Mainland China. The air pollution index (API), a referential parameter describing air pollution levels, provides information to enhance the public awareness of air pollutions in time series since 1995. In this study, the varying trends of API and the levels of related air pollutants are analyzed based on the database monitored at a selected roadside air quality monitoring station, i.e., Causeway Bay, during 1999-2003. Firstly, the original measured pollutant data and the resultant APIs are analyzed statistically in different time series including daily, monthly, seasonal patterns. It is found that the daily mean APIs in seasonal period can be regarded as stationary time series. Secondly, the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) method, implemented by Box-Jenkins model, is used to forecast the API time series in different seasonal specifications. The performance evaluations of the adopted models are also carried out and discussed according to Bayesian information criteria (BIC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results indicate that the ARMA model can provide reliable, satisfactory predictions for the problem interested and is expecting to be an alternative tool for practical assessment and justification.     

Investigation of respirable suspended particulate trend and relevant environmental factors in Hong Kong downtown areas

As the addressing of high demand of good air quality in urban area, a study on air pollutant dispersion and distribution resulting from vehicular exhaust emission is strongly required. In particular, vehicular exhaust emission has become a major air pollution source in metropolitan city like Hong Kong, which is characterized with the heavy, dense traffic flow and the limited land resources. Respirable suspended particulate (RSP) is one of main pollutants resulted from vehicular exhaust emission in urban area. Hence, in this study, we focus on analyzing the variation of RSP levels including diurnal, monthly and annual patterns at selected roadsides in Hong Kong during the period of 1998--2005. Furthermore, the relationships between RSP level and the relevant meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall and wind conditions in Hong Kong territory have been discussed as well.     

改善深圳河水质的补水方案及生态影响初步分析

深圳河旱季天然径流量小而污染负荷高,为了改善河流水质,在削减入河污染物的同时有必要采取补水措施。利用水质模型,计算了不同污水处理率下,分别以污水资源化再生水、珠江口海水和大鹏湾海水为补水水源时,深圳河达到基本不黑臭所需的补水量。讨论了补水方案对河流水质、盐度、水动力条件的改变及其对生态系统的影响。研究表明,引海水对河流生态系统的冲击不容忽视。而污水资源化是较优的补水方案。