Multiseasonal management of an agricultural pest II: the economic optimization problem

The problem of selecting a pesticide application strategy in the face of increasing resistance to the pesticide in the pest population is dealt with. The grower in this situation may do better by sacrificing a portion of the present crop in return for a reduced resistance to future applications. The model presented represents an attempt to forge a compromise between excessive complexity, rendering the model difficult to study, and excessive simplicity, rendering the model useless. The effects of timing of the application of the pesticide within the season are discussed. The principle conclusions are the following: (i) If immigration of pests from refugia is significant then proper timing of the application of pesticide may be used to help alleviate resistance growth. (ii) Resistance growth may best be reduced by spraying earlier than what would otherwise be the best time. (iii) The value of the discount rate (and of the time horizon) has a profound effect on the nature of the optimal policy.     

Host plant resistance to insects: an eco-friendly approach for pest management and environment conservation

Host plant resistance (HPR) to insects is an effective, economical, and environment friendly method of pest control. The most attractive feature of HPR is that farmers virtually do not need any skill in application techniques, and there is no cash investment by the resource poor farmers. Considerable progress has been made in identification and development of crop cultivars with resistance to the major pests in different crops. There is a need to transfer resistance genes into high-yielding cultivars with adaptation to different agro-ecosystems. Resistance to insects should form one of the criteria to release varieties and hybrids for cultivation by the farmers. Genes from the wild relatives of crops, and novel genes, such as those from Bacillus thuringiensis can also be deployed in different crops to make HPR an effective weapon to minimize the losses due to insect pests. HPR will not only cause a major reduction in pesticide use and slowdown the rate of development of resistance to insecticides in insect populations, but also lead to increased activity of beneficial organisms and reduction in pesticide residues in food and food products.     

A state-dependent model for the optimal management of an invasive metapopulation.

Management of invasive species involves choosing between different management strategy options, but often the best strategy for a particular scenario is not obvious. We illustrate the use of optimization methods to determine the most efficient management strategy using one of the most devastating invasive forest pests in North America, the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), as a case study. The optimization approach involves the application of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to a metapopulation framework with different infestation patch sizes, with the goal of minimizing infestation spread. We use a novel "moving window" approach as a way to address a spatially explicit problem without being explicitly spatial. We examine results for two cases in order to develop general rules of thumb for management. We explore a model with limited parameter information and then assess how strategies change with specific parameterization for the gypsy moth. The model results in a complex but stable, state-dependent management strategy for a multiyear management program that is robust even under situations of uncertainty. The general rule of thumb for the basic model consists of three strategies: eradicating medium-density infestations, reducing large-density infestations, and reducing the colonization rate from the main infestation, depending on the state of the system. With specific gypsy moth parameterization, reducing colonization decreases in importance relative to the other two strategies. The application of this model to gypsy moth management emphasizes the importance of managing based on the state of the system, and if applied to a specific geographic area, has the potential to substantially improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of current gypsy moth eradication programs, helping to slow the spread of this pest. Additionally, the approach used for this particular invasive species can be extended to the optimization of management programs for the spread of other invasive and problem species exhibiting metapopulation dynamics.     

Survey for cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (Tinsley) and its natural enemies

Mealybug was considered to be a minor pest of cotton but it emerged as a major pest in 2006-2007 in North and Central zones. Extensive field surveys conducted in cotton fields during 2007-09 in Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab in the North zone and Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat in the Central zone indicated that Phenacoccus solenopsis was the only major species of mealybug recorded on cotton in North as well as Central zones except one location in Gujarat where Fenrrisia virgata Cockerrel was also recorded. Infestation of mealybug at most of the places in North and Central zones ranged from mild (10-20%) to high (40-60%) during 2007 and 2008 but reduced to traces in 2009. Extensive field survey indicated that Aenasius bambawalei Hayat (Chalcidodea: Encyrtidae), an indigenous parasitoid, played a key role in reducing the insect pestinfestation. The parasitoid was first recorded in Delhi in July 2008 and by 2009 it was found in most of the cotton growing districts of North and Central zones. Its natural parasitization on P solenopsis could reach more than 90% at many locations. This is the most successful example of biological control of mealybug. Along with this parasitoid, another parasitoid, Promuscidea unfasciativentris Girault (Chalcidodea: Aphelinidae), was also recorded at most of the locations in smaller proportions.     

Multiseasonal management of an agricultural pest. I: Development of the theory

A framework for analyzing the trade-off between economic yield from a crop and buildup of resistance to pesticide caused by repeated applications of pesticide is developed. The analysis begins with the case of age-independent pest dynamics, in which pests infest a field by arriving from an external pool. Initially, it is assumed that the pest genetics of interest are single locus, two allele, with resistance to pesticide dominant and susceptible pests more fit in the absence of spraying. The pesticide is applied only once during the season, with timing and intensity of the application as control variables. Interseasonal pest and crop dynamics are studied by solving appropriate ordinary differential equations. Intraseasonal pest dynamics are assumed to follow the Hardy-Weinberg formula. It is shown that the three class diploid model can be replaced by a two class haploid model with essentially no change in the results. A model based on partial differential equations is developed, for the case in which pest dynamics depend upon age, and it is shown that the partial differential equation model can be replaced by a pair of coupled ordinary differential equations. The main operational conclusion in this paper is that the timing of the application of pesticide can be used to control buildup of resistance and that the intensity of the application can be used to control the crop yield.     

Incorporating effectiveness of community-based management in a national marine gap analysis for Fiji

Every action in a conservation plan has a different level of effect and consequently contributes differentially to conservation. We examined how several community-based, marine, management actions differed in their contribution to national-level conservation goals in Fiji. We held a workshop with experts on local fauna and flora and local marine management actions to translate conservation goals developed by the national government into ecosystem-specific quantitative objectives and to estimate the relative effectiveness of Fiji's community-based management actions in achieving these objectives. The national conservation objectives were to effectively manage 30% of the nation's fringing reefs, nonfringing reefs, mangroves, and intertidal ecosystems (30% objective) and 10% of other benthic ecosystems (10% objective). The experts evaluated the contribution of the various management actions toward national objectives. Scores ranged from 0 (ineffective) to 1 (maximum effectiveness) and included the following management actions: permanent closures (i.e., all extractive use of resources prohibited indefinitely) (score of 1); conditional closures harvested once per year or less as dictated by a management plan (0.50-0.95); conditional closures harvested without predetermined frequency or duration (0.10-0.85); other management actions, such as regulations on gear and species harvested (0.15-0.50). Through 3 gap analyses, we assessed whether the conservation objectives in Fiji had been achieved. Each analysis was based on a different assumption: (1) all parts of locally managed marine areas (including closures and other management) conserve species and ecosystems effectively; (2) closures conserve species and ecosystems, whereas areas outside closures, open to varying levels of resource extraction, do not; and (3) actions that allow different levels of resource extraction vary in their ability to conserve species and ecosystems. Under assumption 1, Fiji's national conservation objectives were exceeded in all marine ecosystems; under assumption 2, none of Fiji's conservation objectives were met; and under assumption 3, on the basis of the scores assigned by experts, Fiji achieved the 10% but not the 30% objectives for ecosystems. Understanding the relative contribution of management actions to achieving conservation objectives is critical in the assessment of conservation achievements at the national level, where multiple management actions will be needed to achieve national conservation objectives.     

Incorporating connectivity into conservation planning for the optimal representation of multiple species and ecosystem services

Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species’ ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both—particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species’ ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species’ ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets.     

The optimal tax for maximum economic yield: Fishery regulation under rational expectations

This paper examines the optimal tax to achieve maximum economic yield (MEY) exploitation in a rational expectations model of a competitive open-access fishery. To analyze the dynamic evolution of resource use a structural model which explains the relationship between the firm and the industry is presented. The unregulated equilibrium is contrasted with the potential MEY. Conditions under which the unregulated equilibrium will be MEY are explored. In addition, a tax is devised which will cause non-MEY competitive exploitation to become MEY when the tax is implemented.     

Extraction timing and economic incentives for geothermal reservoir management

This article considers the best extraction program for a hot water geothermal reservoir with emphasis on the optimal time to begin extraction. Using a production function relating the rate of extraction to the quality of produced energy, an operational model is presented that gives the best time to begin production, the optimal pumping rate and the best planning horizon. Also investigated is the effect of economic parameters and incentives on these decision variables. This paper studies some means by which regulatory agencies can influence the timing and rate of exploitation of geothermal energy by manipulating economic incentives, and provides information for both public and private decision making in the management of this resource.     

Incorporating multidimensional behavior into a risk management tool for a critically endangered and migratory species

Conservation of migratory species exhibiting wide-ranging and multidimensional behaviors is challenged by management efforts that only utilize horizontal movements or produce static spatial–temporal products. For the deep-diving, critically endangered eastern Pacific leatherback turtle, tools that predict where turtles have high risks of fisheries interactions are urgently needed to prevent further population decline. We incorporated horizontal–vertical movement model results with spatial–temporal kernel density estimates and threat data (gear-specific fishing) to develop monthly maps of spatial risk. Specifically, we applied multistate hidden Markov models to a biotelemetry data set (n = 28 leatherback tracks, 2004–2007). Tracks with dive information were used to characterize turtle behavior as belonging to 1 of 3 states (transiting, residential with mixed diving, and residential with deep diving). Recent fishing effort data from Global Fishing Watch were integrated with predicted behaviors and monthly space-use estimates to create maps of relative risk of turtle–fisheries interactions. Drifting (pelagic) longline fishing gear had the highest average monthly fishing effort in the study region, and risk indices showed this gear to also have the greatest potential for high-risk interactions with turtles in a residential, deep-diving behavioral state. Monthly relative risk surfaces for all gears and behaviors were added to South Pacific TurtleWatch (SPTW) ( https://www.upwell.org/sptw ), a dynamic management tool for this leatherback population. These modifications will refine SPTW's capability to provide important predictions of potential high-risk bycatch areas for turtles undertaking specific behaviors. Our results demonstrate how multidimensional movement data, spatial–temporal density estimates, and threat data can be used to create a unique conservation tool. These methods serve as a framework for incorporating behavior into similar tools for other aquatic, aerial, and terrestrial taxa with multidimensional movement behaviors.     

美国杏李园主要害虫与天敌类群间相关性分析

应用典范相关分析方法研究了美国杏李园丰要害虫与天敌间的相互关系,在未受干扰的自生园中.害虫亚系统与天敌亚系统间第一典范相关系数达到显著水平,天敌亚系统中瓢虫类、草蛉类与主要害虫蚜虫类,螨类的数量变动规律一致.而蜘蛛类与主要害虫的数最关系不密切,化防园内主要害虫与天敌间的典范相关系数均未达显著永平,这表明未受干扰的自生园和生防园内,害虫与天敌亚系统间存在着有效的数量反馈机制,天敌对害虫具有一定的自然抑制作用,而化防园内,害虫与天敌间的数量反馈机制因农药干扰而失调,生态平衡受破坏.自生园和生防园害虫与天敌主要类群间具正相关关系.害虫亚系统中,蚜虫类贡献最大,其次为山楂叶螨和李小食心虫:天敌亚系统中蜘蛛和瓢虫贡献最大,其次为瓢虫类和草蛉类,草蛉类贡献最小.说明蜘蛛类、瓢虫类与主要害虫的数量变动规律一致.而草蛉类与美国杏李园主要害虫的数量关系不密切.     

Studies to establish an optimal diet for Carcinus maenas

Carcinus maenas was maintained on synthetic foods containing various amounts of vitamins, cod liver oil and cholesterol. Food quality was evaluated in terms of growth, duration of intermoult periods and time of survival of the crabs. Vitamins are necessary for their growth and survival and cholesterol is also an essential nutrient. The best growth rates were obtained with 1.4 and 2.1% cholesterol in the food. At 6 and 9% cod liver oil in the food, we observed the best growth, while too high lipid levels slightly reduced the growth of the crustaceans, and definitely reduced their survival time.     

Clutch size as an optimal foraging problem for insects

Summary Many insects oviposit on food patches (e. g., hosts) that represent a finite resource. Competition for food may occur among the developing progeny with the effect of reducing their survivorship, size, and/or some other aspect of fitness. Here a simple, but general, equation is given that captures tures some of the possible relationships between the number of progeny on a host and their fitness. This in turn specifies the clutch size that maximizes the fitness of a female ovipositing on a single host (the Lack clutch size). The equation is then used in an optimal foraging type model to specify optimal clutch sizes when a female searches for and oviposits on a series of hosts. The model makes three general predictions: (1) for a constant host size (or value), optimal clutch size varies directly with the inter-host search time, (2) for a constant search time, optimal clutch size varies directly with host value, and, (3) females should never lay more than the Lack clutch size. The model is then extended to include optimal clutch size in superparasitism.     

The economic implications of recycling exhaustible natural resources: The case for crude oil

Regardless of whether the bulk of decision-making in an economy is done by a central unit or by decentralized smaller units, the government can act to propose guidelines to individual agents. This is of particular importance when the activities of the latter cause aggregative or social problems which are not directly acted upon by the smaller agents. The purpose of this paper is to set up a model by which a central authority can make choices in the presence of two pressing social problems, namely, a diminishing domestic supply of an exhaustible resource and the contamination of the environment through discharged waste materials.The model itself takes the form of an integer-linear programming problem which runs through discrete time to a finite horizon. Besides the traditional modes of “virgin” exploration and production and/or importation from abroad, society is also given the choice of recycling. Society will choose combinations of the above three to minimize the costs of satisfying fixed (projected) oil product demands in the future. The costs include those for increasing exploration for virgin refineries; for collection, refining and transportation for refineries and for the cost to society of discharges of waste-oil into the environment. The constraints include process flow restrictions, import quotas, capacity limits and discharge restrictions as well as fixed demands.An effort was made to keep the model as general as possible. Although no numerical solution is obtained in this paper, we feel that the policy implications of some presumed solution (possible through the use of a well-known algorithm for mixed variable problems) are worth examining. They revolve around the model itself, citing the potential attractiveness of recycling as the other two alternatives become increasingly expensive, and as development of alternatives to oil progresses at an alarmingly slow rate. Also mentioned are problems relating to the potential demands for recycled versus virgin oil products, balance-of-trade problems, and the mutability of social and economic institutions in the crisis of economic adjustment that much of the world is now facing.     

The optimal harvest and management in the models of animal populations

We extended zero-cost optimization model for population of domestic animals. Also the model of hiring of labor in cattle-breeding farm is constructed and investigated.     

A roadmap for knowledge exchange and mobilization research in conservation and natural resource management

Scholars across all disciplines have long been interested in how knowledge moves within and beyond their community of peers. Rapid environmental changes and calls for sustainable management practices mean the best knowledge possible is needed to inform decisions, policies, and practices to protect biodiversity and sustainably manage vulnerable natural resources. Although the conservation literature on knowledge exchange (KE) and knowledge mobilization (KM) has grown in recent years, much of it is based on context‐specific case studies. This presents a challenge for learning cumulative lessons from KE and KM research and thus effectively using knowledge in conservation and natural resources management. Although continued research on the gap between knowledge and action is valuable, overarching conceptual frameworks are now needed to enable summaries and comparisons across diverse KE‐KM research. We propose a knowledge‐action framework that provides a conceptual roadmap for future research and practice in KE/KM with the aim of synthesizing lessons learned from contextual case studies and guiding the development and testing of hypotheses in this domain. Our knowledge‐action framework has 3 elements that occur at multiple levels and scales: knowledge production (e.g., academia and government), knowledge mediation (e.g., knowledge networks, actors, relational dimension, and contextual dimension), and knowledge‐based action (e.g., instrumental, symbolic, and conceptual). The framework integrates concepts from the sociology of science in particular, and serves as a guide to further comprehensive understanding of knowledge exchange and mobilization in conservation and sustainable natural resource management.     

Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems.     

Development of an empirical equation for the transverse dispersion coefficient in natural streams

In this study, a new empirical equation for the transverse dispersion coefficient has been developed based on the hydraulic and geometric parameters in natural streams using a regression technique. First, a total of 32 data sets in 16 streams were collected. Among those sets, 16 sets were used for deriving the new equation, and the other 16 sets were used for verifying the equation. Then, through dimensional analysis, it was found that the normalized transverse dispersion coefficient is associated with several parameters such as sinuosity, aspect ratio, and a friction term. The robust least square method was applied to estimate regression coefficients. The newly proposed equation was proven to be superior in explaining the dispersion characteristics of natural streams more precisely compared to the existing equations.