Modelling dispersal with diffusion and habitat selection: Analytical results for highly fragmented landscapes

Quantifying dispersal is crucial both for understanding ecological population dynamics, and for gaining insight into factors that affect the genetic structure of populations. The role of dispersal becomes pronounced in highly fragmented landscapes inhabited by spatially structured populations. We consider a landscape consisting of a set of habitat patches surrounded by unsuitable matrix, and model dispersal by assuming that the individuals follow a random walk with parameters that may be specific to the habitat type. We allow for spatial variation in patch quality, and account for edge-mediated behavior, the latter meaning that the individuals bias their movement towards the patches when close to an edge between a patch and the matrix. We employ a diffusion approximation of the random walk model to derive analytical expressions for various characteristics of the dispersal process. For example, we derive formulae for the time that an individual is expected to spend in its current patch i, and for the time that it will spend in the matrix, both conditional on the individual hitting next a given patch j before hitting any of the other patches or dying. The analytical formulae are based on the assumptions that the landscape is infinitely large, that the patches are circularly shaped, and that the patches are small compared to interpatch distances. We evaluate the effect of these assumptions by comparing the analytical results to numerical results in a real patch network that violates all of the three assumptions. We then consider a landscape that fulfills the assumptions, and show that in this case the analytical results are in a very good agreement with the numerical results. The results obtained here allow the construction of computationally efficient dispersal models that can be used as components of metapopulation models.     

Dynamic selective environments and evolutionary traps in human-dominated landscapes

Human activities can alter selective environments in ways that can reduce the usefulness of certain ornamental traits as honest signals of individual quality and, in some cases, may create evolutionary traps, where rapid changes in selective environments result in maladaptive behavioral decisions. Using the sexually dichromatic, socially monogamous Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) as a model, we hypothesized that urbanization would erode the relationship between plumage coloration and reproductive success. Because the exotic Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii) provides carotenoids, is a preferred habitat attribute, and increases vulnerability to nest predation, we predicted the presence of an evolutionary trap, whereby the brightest males would achieve the lowest reproductive success. Working at 14 forests in Ohio, USA, 2006-2008, we measured plumage color, monitored reproduction, and quantified habitat within territories. In rural landscapes, the brightest males bred earliest in the season and secured more preferred territories; however, annual reproduction declined with plumage brightness. Coloration of urban males was not associated with territory attributes or reproduction. Female redness across all landscapes was negatively related to reproduction. Poor reproductive performance of otherwise higher-quality males probably resulted from preferences for honeysuckle, which reduces annual reproduction when used as a nesting substrate early in the season. In this way, exotic shrubs prompted an evolutionary trap that was avoided in urban forests where anthropogenic resources disassociated male color and reproductive phenology and success. Our study illustrates how modified selective environments in human-dominated landscapes might shape microevolutionary processes in wild bird populations.     

Impact of aquacultures on the marine ecosystem: Modelling benthic carbon loading over variable depth

In order to be used within Environmental Impact Assessment study, we have developed a three-dimensional particle tracking model for prediction of benthic carbon loading (BCL) caused by fish farms. The model is based on stochastic differential equations for particle transport consistent with the well-known semi-empirical advection/diffusion equation. It requires only easily obtainable input data in the form of measured current record, the source location and a specification of local bathymetry. The model accounts for advection by long-term residual and tidal currents, turbulent diffusion, realistic bathymetry and variations in daily (monthly or yearly) emissions from fish farm.Here, we concentrate on the changes in sedimentation pattern caused by various bathymetric shapes. Examination of idealized cases reveals where and why we can expect the worst impact on benthic communities. For future reference, these results will be included into guidelines for fish farming.     

Reproductive plasticity,oviposition site selection,and maternal effects in fragmented landscapes

Traditionally, evolutionary ecology and conservation biology have primarily been concerned with how environmental changes affect population size and genetic diversity. Recently, however, there has been a growing realization that phenotypic plasticity can have important consequences for the probability of population persistence, population growth, and evolution during rapid environmental change. Habitat fragmentation due to human activities is dramatically changing the ecological conditions of life for many organisms. In this review, we use examples from the literature to demonstrate that habitat fragmentation has important consequences on oviposition site selection in insects, with carryover effects on offspring survival and, therefore, population dynamics. We argue that plasticity in oviposition site selection and maternal effects on offspring phenotypes may be an important, yet underexplored, mechanism by which environmental conditions have consequences across generations. Without considering the impact of habitat fragmentation on oviposition site selection, it will be difficult to assess the effect of fragmentation on offspring fitness, and ultimately to understand the impact of anthropogenic-induced environmental change on population viability.     

EcoTroph: Modelling marine ecosystem functioning and impact of fishing

EcoTroph (ET) is a model articulated around the idea that the functioning of aquatic ecosystems may be viewed as a biomass flow moving from lower to higher trophic levels, due to predation and ontogenetic processes. Thus, we show that the ecosystem biomass present at a given trophic level may be estimated from two simple equations, one describing biomass flow, the other their kinetics (which quantifies the velocity of biomass transfers towards top predators). The flow kinetic of prey partly depends on the abundance of their predators, and a top-down equation expressing this is included in the model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the impact on a virtual ecosystem of various exploitation patterns. Specifically, we show that the EcoTroph approach is able to mimic the effects of increased fishing effort on ecosystem biomass expected from theory. Particularly, the model exhibits complex patterns observed in field data, notably cascading effects and ‘fishing down the food web’. EcoTroph also provides diagnostic tools for examining the relationships between catch and fishing effort at the ecosystem scale and the effects of strong top-down controls and fast-flow kinetics on ecosystems resilience. Finally, a dynamic version of the model is derived from the steady-state version, thus allowing simulations of time series of ecosystem biomass and catches. Using this dynamic model, we explore the propagation of environmental variability in the food web, and illustrated how exploitation can induce a decrease of ecosystem stability. The potential for applying EcoTroph to specific ecosystems, based on field data, and similarities between EcoTroph and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) are finally discussed.     

Fish dispersal in fragmented landscapes: a modeling framework for quantifying the permeability of structural barriers

Dispersal is a key determinant of the spatial distribution and abundance of populations, but human-made fragmentation can create barriers that hinder dispersal and reduce population viability. This study presents a modeling framework based on dispersal kernels (modified Laplace distributions) that describe stream fish dispersal in the presence of obstacles to passage. We used mark-recapture trials to quantify summer dispersal of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in four streams crossed by a highway. The analysis identified population heterogeneity in dispersal behavior, as revealed by the presence of a dominant sedentary component (48-72% of all individuals) characterized by short mean dispersal distance (<10 m), and a secondary mobile component characterized by longer mean dispersal distance (56-1086 m). We did not detect evidence of barrier effects on dispersal through highway crossings. Simulation of various plausible scenarios indicated that detectability of barrier effects was strongly dependent on features of sampling design, such as spatial configuration of the sampling area, barrier extent, and sample size. The proposed modeling framework extends conventional dispersal kernels by incorporating structural barriers. A major strength of the approach is that ecological process (dispersal model) and sampling design (observation model) are incorporated simultaneously into the analysis. This feature can facilitate the use of prior knowledge to improve sampling efficiency of mark-recapture trials in movement studies. Model-based estimation of barrier permeability and its associated uncertainty provides a rigorous approach for quantifying the effect of barriers on stream fish dispersal and assessing population dynamics of stream fish in fragmented landscapes.     

Modelling of matter cycle in a mesotrophic bog ecosystem I. Linear analysis of carbon environs

By means of environ analysis the four-compartment model of matter cycle through the ecosystem of a mesotrophic bog is investigated. The aggregated compartments are: plants, animals, fungi combined with bacteria, and litter. The model is based on data obtained by observations and estimations made on the experimental area of “Tajozhny Log” ocated in the southern taiga sub-zone. Environ analysis enables one to set up, in the quantitative form, certain conclusions on the relative importance of individual system components and diverse processes in the matter cycle, as well as to obtain a number of quantitative characteristics of the turnover. Environ analysis is discussed as a preliminary stage in developing more complex, dynamic models of the matter cycle.     

气候变化背景下中国陆地生态系统碳储量及碳通量研究进展

全球气候变化对全球生态系统的结构、功能和过程产生了重要影响,成为各国政府、社会公众以及科学界共同关心的焦点问题。陆地生态系统碳循环又是当前气候变化和区域可持续发展研究的核心内容之一,影响到经济和社会发展的各个方面。因此,开展陆地生态系统碳储量和碳通量的研究仍将是气候变化研究中的重点内容。总结了近年来国内森林、土壤、草地、农田四种陆地生态系统在碳储量、碳通量方面取得的研究成果和不足：随着遥感、GIS及模型的发展和应用,森林、草地生态系统碳储量的研究精度和范围要高于农田和土壤,而农田和土壤生态系统碳储量的研究多基于典型性样地和大量实验数据,结果受制于样点布设和采样密度;目前,土壤生态系统碳储量结果多基于上世纪80年代全国二次土壤普查数据计算所得,且总有机碳库的估算存在较大差异,土壤有机碳的组分研究中易氧化有机碳库研究滞后于总有机碳,迫切需要对我国现有土壤有机碳进行研究;农田生态系统受人类活动干扰强烈,从一个或几个站点到全国尺度都有对农田土壤有机碳贮量的研究成果,与国外相比,我国试验田的设置时间短,资料积累较少,更多侧重不同施肥方式下农作物产量和农田合理的施肥培肥模式研究,农田土壤有机碳含量关系我国农业生产和粮食安全,对农田土壤固碳机理的研究仍将是今后关注的焦点。各生态系统碳通量的监测取得了一定成果,近年来涡度相关系统在森林、土壤、草地、农田生态系统中得到了广泛的应用。并从气候、人类活动两个因素分析了其对生态系统碳储量、碳通量的影响。针对目前存在的问题,进一步指出了目前国内不同生态系统中碳循环在现状研究、有机碳变化机制、模型建立及气候变化和人类活动影响下的碳库时空格局方面得到加强。     

Modelling the distribution and effect of heavy metals in an aquatic ecosystem

Models are reviewed describing the distribution and effect of heavy metals in an aquatic ecosystem. Since a model used for an impact statement should give the maximum concentration level rather than the seasonal variation, a model focussing on this situation is suggested. The basic differential equations describe (1) the variation in concentration of the toxicant per biomass dry matter in a given trophic level, and (2) the exchange of toxicant between sediment and water. Furthermore, since a substantial part of the heavy metal in an aquatic ecosystem is bound to suspended matter, an equation describing the equilibrium between dissolved and suspended matter must be included.A literature review has been carried out on the parameters used in the above mentioned equations and a demonstration, showing how it is possible to find approximate values for such parameters as excretion coefficient and uptake coefficient on the basis of a relationship between these two parameters and the size of an organism, is given.     

城市生态系统-大气间的碳通量研究进展

城市生态系统对全球碳收支具有显著的贡献,城市化进程促进城市向大气排放碳。随着观测手段和仪器的发展,涡动相关法已成为陆地生态系统碳通量观测的主要手段,并广泛应用于中心城市碳通量观测;城市CO2浓度和通量变化具有日、周、季节变化特征,不同城市之间CO2浓度和通量也有很大差异,其主要原因是由于城市生态系统的下垫面类型不均一,土壤、植被、路面、交通、人呼吸等对碳通量都有贡献,绿地（树木、草坪）对燃料燃烧、人呼吸等的碳排放起着一定的抵消作用;由于多种因素对碳通量起作用,在对城市通量数据进行分析时必须开展贡献区即碳足迹分析。本文综述了城市生态系统-大气间碳通量研究的历程;分析了城市生态系统碳通量的时空变化特征及其主要控制因子;探讨了复杂下垫面条件下城市生态系统-大气间碳通量研究的特点和难点,并提出了未来研究的重点。     

Using experimental reintroductions to resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics on patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes

Declines of species in fragmented landscapes can potentially be reversed either by restoring connectivity or restoring local habitat quality. Models fitted to snapshot occupancy data can be used to predict the effectiveness of these actions. However, such inferences can be misleading if the reliability of the habitat and landscape metrics used is unknown. The only way to unambiguously resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics is to conduct experimental reintroductions to unoccupied patches so that habitat quality can be measured directly from data on vital rates. We, therefore, conducted a 15-year study that involved reintroducing a threatened New Zealand bird to unoccupied forest fragments to obtain reliable data on their habitat quality and reassess initial inferences made by modeling occupancy against habitat and landscape metrics. Although reproductive rates were similar among fragments, subtle differences in adult survival rates resulted in λ (finite rate of increase) estimations of <0.9 for 9 of the 12 fragments that were previously unoccupied. This was the case for only 1 of 14 naturally occupied fragments. This variation in λ largely explained the original occupancy pattern, reversing our original conclusion from occupancy modeling that this occupancy pattern was isolation driven and suggesting that it would be detrimental to increase connectivity without improving local habitat quality. These results illustrate that inferences from snapshot occupancy should be treated with caution and subjected to testing through experimental reintroductions in selected model systems.     

Simulating population variation and movement within fragmented landscapes: An application to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus)

As the human activity footprint grows, land-use decisions play an increasing role in determining the future of plant and animal species. Studies have shown that urban and agricultural development cannot only harm species populations directly through habitat destruction, but also by destroying the corridors that connect habitat patches and populations within a metapopulation. Without these pathways, populations can encounter inbreeding depression and degeneration, which can increase death rates and lower rates of reproduction. This article describes the development and application of the FRAGGLE model, a spatial system dynamics model designed to calculate connectivity indices among populations. FRAGGLE can help planners and managers identify the relative contribution of populations associated with habitat patches to future populations in those patches, taking into account the importance of interstitial land to migration success. The model is applied to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus), a threatened species whose southeastern U.S. distribution has diminished significantly within its native range due to agricultural and urban development over the last several decades. This model is parameterized with life history and movement traits of the gopher tortoise in order to simulate population demographics and spatial distribution within an area in west-central Georgia that supports a significant tortoise population. The implications of this simulation modeling effort are demonstrated using simple landscape representations and a hypothetical on land-use management scenario. Our findings show that development resulting in even limited habitat losses (10%) may lead to significant increases in fragmentation as measured by a loss in the rate of dispersions (31%) among area subpopulations.     

土地利用/覆被变化对土地生态系统有机碳库的影响——以吉林省通榆县为例

土地利用/覆被变化对陆地碳循环影响显著.文章基于实地采集的土壤、植物样品的测试数据和1989、2004两年8月陆地卫星TM遥感影像数据,采用生态系统类型法分析吉林省通榆县1989-2004年耕地、林地、草地、盐碱地、沙地等11 种地类之间土地利用变化对土地生态系统有机碳库的影响.计算结果表明1989-2004年通榆县土地生态系统有机碳库共损失了3.18 TgC(1Tg=106t),年均损失约为0.265 Tgc.其中,湿地、草地有机碳库分别损失5.54 TgC和3.71 TgC,盐碱地面积的增加导致有机碳库损失4.75 TgC.林地面积增加和沙地面积减少分别使有机碳库增加了4.58 TgC和3.75 TgC.研究区总体上为一个碳失汇,草地退化、湿地萎缩、土地沙化和盐碱化造成了有机碳库的碳损失,而植树造林、草地植被的恢复和重建等活动则可以显著增加土壤有机碳储量.该研究对于评估自然环境与人为活动影响下,特别是大规模土地整治与生态修复对土壤有机碳的增汇潜力和固碳效应的影响具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.     

Modelling interactions between scavenger behaviour and farming practices: Impacts on scavenger population and ecosystem service efficiency

Long term conservation of ecosystem services requires a deep understanding of their basic processes and the development of tools to assess the effects of human practices on their efficiency. As an example of recycling service, we focus on the consumption of livestock carcasses by obligate scavengers, taking the case of vultures which face a dramatic decline worldwide. We investigate whether maintaining this recycling service through individual feeding stations called light feeding stations in contrast to aggregated resource on heavy feeding stations can meet the double objectives of vulture conservation and service efficiency. We built a spatially explicit multi-agent model to investigate the long term effects of livestock farmers practices on both the recycling service efficiency for farmers and vulture population carrying capacity including: (i) carcass disposal practices that drive the quantity and spatial distribution of resources for vultures and (ii) temporal distribution of livestock mortality due to economic choices that drive the dynamics of resources for vultures. In addition, we examine various scenarios related to vulture feeding behaviour - i.e. central place vs. random foraging and contest vs. scramble intraspecific competition - that may play a role in the vulture carrying capacity and recycling service efficiency. When accounting for vulture central place foraging, we found that favouring the use of light feeding stations instead of heavy feeding station does not affect vulture population carrying capacity and increases the number of farmer for which vulture service is optimal. The increase of light feeding station users poorly affects the number of farmers for which vulture service is optimal in contrast to results obtained with a vulture random foraging behaviour. Both of the recycling service efficiency and the vulture carrying capacity vary with the kind of intraspecific competition and with the seasonal distribution of livestock mortality. Livestock mortality distributions with a seasonal peak of mortality result in a mismatch between vulture food requirement and farmers needs for carcass removal. Finally we raise several points on the relevance of light feeding stations as a sustainable management for vulture conservation and for the recycling service and discuss the potential implications of seasonal scarcity of resources due to farming economic constraints.     

闽西北地区不同龄组常绿阔叶混交林生态系统碳储量结构特征

选取福建西北部地区多群落类型组成的常绿阔叶混交林为研究对象,通过典型样地调查法,对生态系统各个层次进行取样调查,采用“相对生长法”计算乔木层生物量,灌木层、草本层和凋落物层采用全部收获法测得其生物量,对土壤层的调查采用剖面法加土钻法,代表性样品碳含量的测定采用重铬酸钾-外加热容量法。在此基础上,分析了该地区不同林龄常绿阔叶林生态系统碳储量及其格局特征,结果表明,（1）闽西北地区常绿阔叶林生态系统平均碳储量为260.63 t·hm-2。在每个发育阶段,各层片对整个生态系统碳储量的贡献率相对稳定,空间分布格局特征相似。幼龄林、中龄林、近熟林、成过熟林生态系统的碳储量分别为192.14、221.15、317.11和312.12 t·hm-2,基本表现出随林龄增加而逐渐增大的趋势。（2）乔木层、灌木层、草本层、凋落物层的平均碳质量分数分别为48.5%、46.9%、41.2%、44.0%,每个层片中,各器官的碳含量差异不大,乔木层、灌木层及草本层的碳质量分数表现出随层片高度降低而减小的趋势。土壤碳质量分数由表层到底层逐渐减小。0～10、10～20 cm土层碳质量分数均显著大于其余三个土层。（3）生物量碳储量在每个层片随着龄组不同,表现出不同的变化趋势。乔木层碳储量大小排序为近熟林﹥成过熟林﹥中龄林﹥幼龄林,灌木层与草本层在不同发育阶段的碳储量,均表现出以下规律：从幼龄林到中龄林不断增长,在中龄林达到最大值后,又随发育的进行显现出不断下降的趋势。随着地表凋落物现存量的不断增加,其碳储量也表现出幼龄林﹥中龄林﹥近熟林﹥成过熟林的趋势。土壤的平均碳储量为134.986 t·hm-2,随着林分发育,表现为成过熟林﹥近熟林﹥中龄林﹥幼龄林。     

Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

Crown fire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and can be used to model fire in heterogeneous crown fuels. However, the potential impacts of variability in crown fuels on fire behavior have not yet been explored. In this study we describe a new model, FUEL3D, which incorporates the pipe model theory (PMT) and a simple 3D recursive branching approach to model the distribution of fuel within individual tree crowns. FUEL3D uses forest inventory data as inputs, and stochastically retains geometric variability observed in field data. We investigate the effects of crown fuel heterogeneity on fire behavior with a CFD fire model by simulating fire under a homogeneous tree crown and a heterogeneous tree crown modeled with FUEL3D, using two different levels of surface fire intensity. Model output is used to estimate the probability of tree mortality, linking fire behavior and fire effects at the scale of an individual tree. We discovered that variability within a tree crown altered the timing, magnitude and dynamics of how fire burned through the crown; effects varied with surface fire intensity. In the lower surface fire intensity case, the heterogeneous tree crown barely ignited and would likely survive, while the homogeneous tree had nearly 80% fuel consumption and an order of magnitude difference in total net radiative heat transfer. In the higher surface fire intensity case, both cases burned readily. Differences for the homogeneous tree between the two surface fire intensity cases were minimal but were dramatic for the heterogeneous tree. These results suggest that heterogeneity within the crown causes more conditional, threshold-like interactions with fire. We conclude with discussion of implications for fire behavior modeling and fire ecology.     

Salmon, wildlife, and wine: marine-derived nutrients in human-dominated ecosystems of central California.

Pacific salmon transfer large quantities of marine-derived nutrients to adjacent forest ecosystems with profound effects on plant and wildlife production. We investigated this process for two highly modified California wine country rivers, one with consistent salmon runs (Mokelumne River) and one without (Calaveras River). Mokelumne River Chinook salmon transported biomass and N comparable to Pacific Northwest salmon streams. Calaveras River levels were much less. Scavenger numbers correlated with salmon carcass counts over time on the Mokelumne River but not the Calaveras River. Likewise, salmon carcasses were consumed significantly faster on the Mokelumne River. Native riparian vegetation as well as cultivated wine grapes adjacent to Mokelumne River spawning sites received 18-25% of foliar N from marine sources, significantly higher than vegetation along the Calaveras River. These data suggest that robust salmon runs continue to provide important ecological services with high economic value, even in impaired watersheds. Loss of Pacific salmon can not only negatively affect stream and riparian ecosystem function, but can also affect local economies where agriculture and salmon streams coexist.     

Modelling of matter cycle in a mesotrophic bog ecosystem II. Dynamic model and ecological succession

Based upon the the results of static environ analysis of the organic matter cycle through the ecosystem, a number of dynamic models are developed, in this second part, for the matter and nitrogen cycles. Probable outcomes of ecological succession are obtained within the framework of the dynamic model without using the ergodic hypothesis that is implicitly adopted in ecological studies. The dynamics of both stocks in the ecosytem components and flows among them can be observed within the model in order to compare some turnover characteristics of the succession series with those of the ecological one.