Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

Biogeography and dispersal of coastal marine organisms: experimental studies on a replica of a 16th-century sailing vessel

Observational and experimental studies were conducted on the dispersal of fouling organisms on a replica of a 16th-century sailing vessel along an 800 km transect from Yaquina Bay, Oregon to San Francisco Bay, California. The vessel sailed between four bays at slow speeds (3.5 to 4 knots), resided in each bay for approximately 30 d, and spent 1 to 3 d in the open ocean travelling between ports. Natural hull fouling and experimental fouling panels placed on the vessel were sampled upon departure and arrival at each port. All common fouling species survived the open sea voyages between the harbors, with largely no ecologically significant changes in abundance nor significant losses in overall diversity detected. In one port the vessel settled upon the harbor floor periodically; several entrained benthic organisms were then transported 390 km to the next port. Slow-moving, fouled sailing vessels of relatively long port residencies may have significantly altered the distributions of marine and estuarine organisms not only globally (leading to the invasions of non-native species) but also along continental margins (leading to the alteration of aboriginal patterns of distribution). Shipping traffic may further play an important role in gene flow between isolated populations of obligate estuarine organisms, particularly those with non-planktonic larvae.     

Nonindigenous biota on artificial structures: could habitat creation facilitate biological invasions?

We identified different distributions of marine nonindigenous species (NIS) and native species on some artificial structures versus natural reefs and using experimental manipulations, revealed some possible causal mechanisms. In well-established subtidal assemblages, numbers of NIS were 1.5–2.5 times greater on pontoons or pilings than on rocky reefs, despite the local species pool of natives being up to 2.5 times greater than that of NIS. Conversely, on reefs and seawalls, numbers of native species were up to three times greater than numbers of NIS. Differential recruitment to different positions and types of surfaces appeared to influence distribution patterns. NIS recruited well to most surfaces, particularly concrete surfaces near the surface of the water, whilst natives occurred infrequently on wooden surfaces. The position of rocky reefs and seawalls close to the shore and to the seabed appeared to make them favourable for the recruitment of natives, but this positioning alone does not hinder the recruitment of NIS. We argue that pontoons and pilings represent beachheads (i.e. entry points for invasion) for many nonindigenous epibiota and so enhance the spread and establishment of NIS in estuaries. Habitat creation in estuaries may, therefore, be a serious threat to native biodiversity. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Geochemical Distribution and Bioavailability of Heavy Metals and Oxalate in Street Sediments from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A Preliminary Investigation

As urbanisation accelerates within less-economically developed countries, populations in cities such as Rio de Janeiro are subject to numerous health risks relating to “heavy metal”, sewage and vehicle pollution. These risks apply especially to children, through inhalation and dermal contact with pollutant-rich street sediments that reflect contamination from atmospheric deposition and act as effective sinks for heavy metals and oxalates. To assess the nature and extent of these risks street sediments were collected from industrial, commercial, residential and recreational areas with varying traffic densities within Rio de Janeiro. A modified selective extraction procedure was used to study the geochemical partitioning and bioavailability of Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb and C₂O ₄ ⁻ . Oxalate partitioning has not been studied by traditional sequential methods and results from this procedure highlight the potential bioavailability of both oxalates and “heavy metals”, especially Pb and C₂O ₄ ⁻ in industrial and recreational areas.     

Hull fouling on commercial ships as a vector of macroalgal introduction

Hull fouling is thought to have been the vector of introduction for many algal species. We studied ships arriving at a Mediterranean harbour to clarify the present role of commercial cargo shipping in algal introductions. A total of 31 macroalgal taxa were identified from 22 sampled hulls. The majority of records (58%) were of species with a known cosmopolitan geographical distribution. Due to a prevalence of cosmopolitan species and a high turnover of fouling communities, species composition of assemblages did not appear to be influenced by the area of origin, length of ship or age of coating. In the light of the present results, hull fouling on standard trading commercial vessels does not seem to pose a significant risk for new macroalgal species introductions. However, a high proportion of non-cosmopolitan species found on a ship with non-toxic coating may modify this assessment, especially in the light of the increasing use of such coatings and the potential future changes in shipping routes.     

Stalked tunicates Boltenia ovifera form biogenic habitat in the rocky subtidal zone of Nova Scotia

The stalked tunicate Boltenia ovifera is widely distributed in the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans on rocky substrata at 10–300 m depth, although its ecological role in benthic communities is poorly understood. The distribution and abundance of B. ovifera were recorded at 10–100 m depth in towed-video transects in November 2011 and in June, July, and November 2012 off a wave-exposed headland near Halifax, Nova Scotia. Specimens also were collected at 30 m depth using SCUBA (44°26.88′N, 63°31.59′W) in September 2012. Areas dominated by B. ovifera had densities of 10–100 individuals m^?2 on rocky substrata at 30–60 m depth. These tunicate beds often were associated with sparse kelp (Agarum clathratum) and turf-forming red algae. A generalized additive model indicated that depth, substrate type, and benthic algal type were strong predictors of tunicate abundance. Twenty-two epibiotic species were found on specimens of B. ovifera, including juvenile conspecifics. Filter-feeding macroinvertebrates, including anemones and soft corals, were more abundant in areas with B. ovifera than in areas without these tunicates. Our findings suggest that beds of B. ovifera can act as biogenic habitat to enhance local species richness in the rocky subtidal zone of Nova Scotia.     

When is increasing consumption of common property optimal? Sorting,congestion and entry in the commons

First-best pricing or assignment of property rights for rival and non-excludable goods is often infeasible. In a setting where the social planner cannot limit total use, we show that common-property resources can be over or under-consumed. This depends on whether the external benefits of reallocating users to less congested resources outweigh the additional costs imposed by new entrants. Importantly, we show that it may be optimal to encourage consumption of some common property resources. Our results have important implications for settings ranging from fisheries and forestry to recreational demand and transportation.     

Membrane fouling control by ultrasound in an anaerobic membrane bioreactor

In this study, ultrasound was used to control the membrane fouling online in an anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AMBR). Short-term running experiments were carried out under different operating conditions to explore feasible ultrasonic parameters. The experimental results indicated that when the crossflow velocity was more than 1.0 m/s, membrane fouling could be controlled effectively only by hydrodynamic methods without ultrasound. When ultrasound was applied, an ultrasonic power range of 60–150 W was suitable for the membrane fouling control in the experimental system. The experimental results showed that the membrane fouling was controlled so well that membrane filtration resistance (ΣR) could stay at 5 × 10¹¹ m^?1 for more than a week with the crossflow velocity of 0.75 m/s, which equaled the effect of crossflow velocity of more than 1.0 m/s without ultrasound.     

Field identification of ‘types’ A and B of the ascidian Ciona intestinalis in a region of sympatry

The ascidian species Ciona intestinalis is a major model chordate in developmental and evolutionary biology, and an important fouling organism and invasive species. However, genomic investigation has recently revealed the existence of two cryptic species, genetically distinct yet without obvious morphological differences, currently referred to as types A and B. Here, we show that they are externally distinctive in a zone of sympatry in the western English Channel. Examining genotyped specimens, we found that types A and B of C. intestinalis can generally be distinguished by body colour, pigmentation at the distal end of the siphons and the presence or absence of tubercles on the sides of the siphons. Detecting specimens of hybrid descent still requires detailed molecular analysis, but these visual characters in combination will identify living specimens of types A and B with high probability. These differences are shown to be inherited.     

Microbial quality and physical–chemical characteristics of thermal springs

Microbial quality and physical–chemical properties of recreational spas were surveyed to investigate the health aspect of the spas’ water. A total of 195 samples were collected from pools and springs of the spas in five sites from Ardebil Province of Iran. The effects of an independent factor defined as ‘condition’ and its component sub-factors (i.e., sampling point, location, and sampling date) on microbial quality and physical–chemical properties of the spas were studied by applying path analysis. The influence of physical–chemical properties on microbial quality was also considered. The percentage of samples exceeding the ISIRI (Swimming pool water microbiological specifications (vol 9412), Institute of Standards and Industrial Research of Iran, Tehran, 2007) limits for Staphylococcus (spp.) was up to 55.8 in the springs and 87.8 in the pools, 58.1 and 99.2 for HPC, 90.7 and 97.8 for total coliform and fecal coliform, and 9.3 and 34.4 for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respectively. There were significant differences between the pools and springs for both physical–chemical properties and microbial quality. From the path analysis, sampling point was the most effective sub-factor of ‘condition’ on both the physical–chemical properties and microbial quality. Among the physical–chemical properties, water color had the most enhancing or additive influence on microbial pollution, while EC indicated a reducing or subtractive effect.     

Modeling Recreation Demand in the Presence of Unobservable Travel Costs: Toward a Travel Price Model

An important issue in the application of travel cost models is the construction of a travel cost variable. This paper develops an econometric approach that views travel costs as an unobserved latent variable. The latent variable approach utilizes indicators to capture the role of individual travel costs in recreational demand models. The latent variables approach has at least two advantages over conventional approaches. One, the indicators can include both traditional components such as time and distance and non-traditional components such as the scenic beauty. Second, the estimation procedure results in each indicator being valued in dollar terms.     

Conservation of Biodiversity in a World of Use

Abstract: Biodiversity conservation has become the stated objective of national governments, state agencies, local communities, and scientific organizations. Yet despite this attention the term biodiversity remains poorly defined. One of the unfortunate consequences of this lack of definition is a proliferation of claims that biodiversity can be both used and conserved. This claim is difficult to assess without a more precise way of defining biodiversity. We offer a heuristic framework for measuring the consequences of human use for biodiversity. Our definition of biodiversity includes three components: genetic, population/species, and community/ecosystem. Each component has its own three attributes: composition, structure, and function. Using this definition, we assessed the effects of different types of human use on the different components and attributes of biodiversity. We show that (1) different degrees of human use or alteration result in differential conservation of biodiversity components; (2) some components and attributes of biodiversity are more sensitive to human use than others; and (3) only extremely limited use or virtually no alteration will protect all components.     

Rapid shoreline retreat along the Esmeraldas coast, Ecuador: natural and man-induced processes

Along the coast facing the Pacific Ocean in the province of Esmeraldas (Ecuador) one can observe some stretches where a process of rapid erosion is currently in progress. If it is not prevented, it seriously risks compromising the development of any form of utilization. In this paper, which summarizes the observations carried out in three different periods (1989, 1992 and 1999), we express the opinion that this process is the product of two distinct main causes. Along the Atacames bay, which may be considered as the main seaside resort of Quito, the capital of Ecuador, progressive cliff retreat is not only very dangerous for the existing tourist settlements, but also hinders their further development. The shoreline dynamics that seems to be due only to ‘natural’ causes (sea level rising, or the lastEl Niño event) are so active that defence works are not recommended. At Camarones the erosion of the coast is clearly due to the systematic destruction of mangroves by man. Also as a result of the lastEl Niño event, the situation has become alarming and it could rapidly get worse. By means of the present contribution, the Authors intend to attract the attention of the international scientific community upon the processes, not surveyed so far, affecting the ‘weakest’ stretches of the Ecuadorian coast.     

Incorporating catastrophic risk assessments into setting conservation goals for threatened Pacific salmon

Catastrophic die-offs can have important consequences for vertebrate population growth and biodiversity, but catastrophic risks are not commonly incorporated into endangered-species recovery planning. Natural (e.g., landslides, floods) and anthropogenic (e.g., toxic leaks and spills) catastrophes pose a challenge for evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) of Pacific salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act and teetering at precariously low population levels. To spread risks among Puget Sound chinook salmon populations, recovery strategies for ESU-wide viability recommend at least two viable populations of historical life-history types in each of five geographic regions. We explored the likelihood of Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU persistence by examining spatial patterns of catastrophic risk and testing ESU viability recommendations for 22 populations of the threatened Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU. We combined geospatial information about catastrophic risks and chinook salmon distribution in Puget Sound watersheds to categorize relative catastrophic risks for each population. We then analyzed similarities in risk scores among regions and compared risk distributions among strategies: (1) population groups selected using the ESU viability recommendations of having populations spread out geographically and including historical life-history diversity, and (2) population groups selected at random. Risks from individual catastrophes varied among populations, but overall risk from catastrophes was similar within geographic regions. Recovery strategies that called for two viable populations in each of five geographic regions had lower risk than random strategies; strategies that included life-history diversity had even lower risks. Geographically distributed populations have varying catastrophic-risks profiles, thus identifying and reinforcing the spatial and life-history diversity critical for populations to respond to environmental change or needed to rescue severely depleted or extirpated populations. Recovery planning can promote viability of Pacific salmon ESUs across the landscape by incorporating catastrophic risk assessments.     

曝气强度对膜生物反应器运行特性的影响

以膜生物反应器（MBR）处理模拟生活废水为研究体系,考察曝气强度对系统污染物去除效果、脱氢酶活性、胞外聚合物（EPS）组分和含量、Zeta电位、污泥粒径及跨膜压差等的影响.结果表明,随着曝气强度降低,COD去除率变化不大,均大于94.0%,脱氢酶活性明显降低,VSS/SS比值下降;污泥LB-EPS增加,Zeta电位降低,污泥平均体积粒径减小,膜通量下降速率增大.曝气强度为800—400 L.m-.2h-1的条件下,曝气产生的水力剪切力不是影响污泥粒径大小的主导因素,污泥Zeta电位则起着决定作用,但水力剪切力有利于缓解膜污染.     

Public preferences for visual quality and management in the Kackar Mountains National Park (Turkey)

There are 37 national parks in Turkey, encompassing the most important mountain ecosystems, with high biological, natural, cultural and historical diversity. These parks also have aesthetic and recreational potential, and are valuable components within the country's nature protection programmes. Globally, a landscape can be regarded as the face of an ecosystem and constitutes a relationship between natural structure and visual features. There have been several studies on whether visual quality can provide indicators for landscape planning. Visual quality can also be assessed as a manifesto for community participation. This paper attempts to extend the understanding of visual quality assessment for national parks, using the Kackar Mountains National Park (KMNP) in north-eastern Turkey as an example. A detailed survey of visual quality preferences, landscape factors (10 main and 40 sub-factors) and semantic factors (naturalness, variety, fascination, vividness, unity, interesting and exciting) affecting these preferences was made using 30 represenative slides selected from the park. The highest preference was found to be 6.54, while the lowest was 2.30. Regression analysis enabled us to determine the relationship between visual quality and visual landscape attributes. The R2 value for naturalness was 0.482, while naturalness together with lake and fog percentage was 0.641. The assessment of preferences for the studied views in various landscape units can be evaluated and used for land-use decisions and future planning in KMNP.     

Rent dissipation and efficient rationalization in for-hire recreational fishing

Recreational fisheries are increasingly important in fisheries management; for some species, recreational take rivals or exceeds the amount harvested by commercial fishermen. Most recreational fisheries are regulated with gear restrictions, bag limits, and time/area closures, but there is increasing interest in the market-based solutions employed in commercial fisheries — this despite the lack of an adequate bioeconomic theory of the joint commercial/recreational aspects of many recreational fisheries. This paper integrates a detailed production specification with traditional bioeconomic tools in order to better understand the implications of rationalization schemes targeted at the charter sector. While confirming some of the qualitative conclusions of the commercial fisheries literature on open access and regulated open access our model also generates rich and novel predictions with respect to input choices, the number of vessels and congestion externalities. We devise a system of instruments that generate efficient outcomes and extensively discuss issues associated with their real-world implementation.     

Rapid Assessment of Risks to a Mobile Marine Mammal in an Ecosystem-Scale Marine Protected Area

Abstract:  Ecosystem-scale networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools, but their effectiveness is difficult to quantify in a time frame appropriate to species conservation because of uncertainties in the data available. The dugong ( Dugong dugon ) is a mobile marine species that occurs in shallow inshore waters of an ecosystem-scale network of MPAs (the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area [GBRWHA]). We developed a rapid approach to assess risk to dugongs in the region and evaluate options to ameliorate that risk. We used expert opinion and a Delphi technique to identify and rank 5 human factors with the potential to adversely affect dugongs and their sea grass habitats: netting, indigenous hunting, trawling, vessel traffic, and poor-quality terrestrial runoff. We then quantified and compared the distribution of these factors with a spatially explicit model of dugong distribution. We estimated that approximately 96% of habitat of high conservation value for dugongs in the GBRWHA is at low risk from human activities. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that to decrease risk, commercial netting or indigenous hunting had to be reduced in remote areas and the effects of vessel traffic, terrestrial runoff, and commercial netting had to be reduced in urban areas. This approach enabled us to compare and rank risks so as to identify the most severe risks and locate specific sites that require further management attention.     

Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?

International trade is the primary conduit for unintentional and damaging species introductions. But biogeographic heterogeneity, and differences in historical trade exposure across trade partners suggest that not all imports are equally risky. We develop an analytical model linking exotic species introductions and discoveries to trade volumes. The model is estimated using a novel historical data set on global trade and species introductions by region. Our estimates support theoretical predictions that trade from different regions poses different risks and that the cumulative number of introductions from a region is a concave function of imports. For each trade region we then calculate the marginal and cumulative invasion risk from additional trade. Simple volume restrictions on imports to reduce NIS introductions are not advisable based on coarse cost–benefit calculations.