Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. I. Model description and scenario analysis

The economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs was evaluated taking the spatial variability of environmental conditions into account. Two sequential GIS-embedded submodels were developed for a spatial assessment, which allow for spatial variation in soil contamination, soil type, and land use. These models were applied for four SRC production and four energy conversion scenarios for the entire contaminated area of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia and for a part of the Bragin district, Belarus. It was concluded that in general medium-scale SRC production using local machines is most profitable. The areas near Chernobyl are not suitable for SRC production since the contamination levels in SRC wood exceed the intervention limit. Large scale SRC production is not profitable in areas where dry and sandy soils predominate. If the soil contamination does not exceed the intervention limit and sufficient SRC wood is available, all energy conversion scenarios are profitable.