The European Union Solidarity Fund: an assessment of its recent reforms

After extensive flooding in 2002, the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) was created as an ex post loss-financing vehicle for EU member states and candidate countries in the case of disasters that exceed the government’s resources to cope. The EUSF is viewed as a valuable instrument for pooling risk among countries in Europe and potentially as a model for financing loss and damage from climate change in vulnerable countries worldwide. This paper assesses its future prospects taking account of reforms adopted in 2014. Our analysis is based on three recognized aims of the Solidarity Fund: its promotion of solidarity with those countries having the least capacity to cope with major disasters; its contribution to proactive disaster risk reduction and management (climate adaptation); and its robustness with regard to its risk of depletion (stress testing). Using a simulation approach for future disasters, we conclude that the reformed EUSF’s risk of depletion, although it is reasonably robust to more frequent disasters, could be reduced by increasing member state contributions and/or engaging in risk transfer. The European Commission has taken important steps in linking the fund to proactive risk reduction; yet, by changing its budgeting practices, the commission could be more proactive in encouraging risk management in member states. In its current form, the EUSF does not embed needs-based solidarity. Lower-income “new” member states have received disproportionately less compensation in terms of eligible losses, although on average, they have received more disaster aid than what they contribute to the fund. Solidarity could be enhanced by changing the rules for disbursing aid. After briefly describing alternative risk-pooling models in the Caribbean, Africa, and Europe, we suggest how design features of the EUSF as compared to other regional risk pools can inform discussions on the Warsaw International Loss and Damage Mechanism.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges

The field of climate change is full of uncertainties that are limiting strategic disaster risk reduction planning. In this paper, however, we argued that there is lot to do before we get our hands on reliable estimates of future climate change impacts. It includes bringing together different stakeholders in a framework suggested in this paper, developing case studies that reflect long-term local impacts of climate change, capacity building of local stakeholders that enables them to take decisions under uncertainty etc. We proposed a simple scheme that brings together climate, disaster and policy community together to start a dialogue in a run-up to understanding wider aspects of long-term risk reduction at local level. Strategic thinking, which has only been restricted to national and regional planning to date, needs to be inculcated in local level disaster risk reduction and policy personnel as well. There is a need to move from the attitude of considering local level players as ‘implementers’ to ‘innovators’ for which developing a network of self learning and evolving organizations are required at the local level.     

Financial adaptation to disaster risk in the European Union

Increasing losses from weather related extreme events coupled with limited coping capacity suggest a need for strong adaptation commitments, of which public sector responses to adjustments to actual and expected climate stimuli are key. The European Commission has started to address this need in the emerging European Union (EU) climate adaptation strategy; yet, a specific rationale for adaptation interventions has not clearly been identified, and the economic case for adaptation to extremes remains vague. Basing the diagnosis on economic welfare theory and an empirical analysis of the current EU and member states’ roles in managing disaster risk, we discuss how and where the public sector may intervene for managing climate variability and change. We restrict our analysis to financial disaster management, a domain of adaptation intervention, which is of key concern for the EU adaptation strategy. We analyse three areas of public sector interventions, supporting national insurance systems, providing compensation to the affected post event as well as intergovernmental loss sharing through the EU solidarity fund, according to the three government functions of allocation, distribution, and stabilization suggested by welfare theory, and suggest room for improvement.     

核密度估计在海洋灾害保险纯保费厘定中的应用——以风暴潮灾害为例

频发的海洋灾害给人类社会正常的生产生活造成了不可估量的损失。总结日本灾后重建经验,本文认为提高居民防灾减灾能力、建立海洋灾害保险机制是我国社会发展中亟待解决的问题。由于有限的海洋灾害风险统计数据会降低传统的参数估计方法在海洋灾害保险费率厘定中的有效性,故本文引入非参数模型中的核密度估计方法对海洋灾害风险损失数据进行拟合,得到相应的期望损失,并以此为基础厘定海洋灾害保险的纯保费;在考虑风险附加后,文章对海洋灾害保险的费率进行了校正,以风暴潮为例进行实证分析,最终完成海洋灾害保险纯保费的厘定,并针对如何提高我国海洋灾害风险管理能力提出了若干对策建议。     

Carotenoid-dependent coloration of male American kestrels predicts ability to reduce parasitic infections

The signaling function of sexually selected traits, such as carotenoid-dependent avian plumage coloration, has received a great deal of recent attention especially with respect to parasitism and immunocompetence. We argue that parasite-mediated models of sexual selection may have an implicit temporal component that many researchers have ignored. For example, previous studies have demonstrated that carotenoid-dependent traits can signal past parasite exposure, current levels of parasitism, or the ability of individuals to manage parasitic infections in the future. We examined repeated measures of carotenoid-dependent skin color and blood parasitism in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) to distinguish whether coloration might signal current parasitism or the potential to deal with infections in the future. We found no evidence that coloration was related to current levels of parasitism in either sex. However, coloration of males significantly predicted their response to parasitism; males with bright orange coloration during prelaying, when mate choice is occurring, were more likely than dull yellow males to reduce their levels of infection by the time incubation began. Coloration during prelaying may advertise a male’s health later in the breeding season. For kestrels, the ability to predict future health would be highly beneficial given the male’s role in providing food to his mate and offspring. Coloration of females was not a significant predictor of parasitism in the future, and we provide several possible explanations for this result.     

The potential to encode sex,age, and individual identity in the alarm calls of three species of Marmotinae

In addition to encoding referential information and information about the sender’s motivation, mammalian alarm calls may encode information about other attributes of the sender, providing the potential for recognition among kin, mates, and neighbors. Here, we examined 96 speckled ground squirrels (Spermophilus suslicus), 100 yellow ground squirrels (Spermophilus fulvus) and 85 yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) to determine whether their alarm calls differed between species in their ability to encode information about the caller’s sex, age, and identity. Alarm calls were elicited by approaching individually identified animals in live-traps. We assume this experimental design modeled a naturally occurring predatory event, when receivers should acquire information about attributes of a caller from a single bout of alarm calls. In each species, variation that allows identification of the caller’s identity was greater than variation allowing identification of age or sex. We discuss these results in relation to each species’ biology and sociality.     

Fires in tropical forests – what is really the problem? lessons from Indonesia

Fires have attracted interest and generated alarm since the early 1980s. This concern has been particularly evident in tropical forests of Southeast Asia and the Amazon, but disastrous fires in recent summers in Australia, Europe, and the United States have drawn worldwide attention. Concern about forest fires, and related air pollution and biodiversity impacts, led international organisations and northern countries – such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World Bank, and the government of Germany – to undertake fire assessments and provide technical assistance. Nongovernmental organisations, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources and World Wide Fund for Nature, have also devoted increased attention to fires. Aiming at prevention of future fires, 40 fire projects and missions costing well over US$30 million have worked in Indonesia over the last 20 years. Despite the money and effort spent on them, fires continue to burn every year. It may appear to some that efforts to address the ‘fire problem’ have not been effective as fires still occur. There remains a lack of clarity about ‘fire problems’, which has, at times, led to the adoption of policies that may have negative impacts on livelihoods, the environment, and the economy. Two ‘simple’ changes in the way fires are considered would significantly improve fire-related policies and initiatives.

Insuring Southeast Asian commercial forests: Fire risk analysis and the potential for use of data in risk pricing and reduction of forest fire risk

The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry companies operate. Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial forestry were this situation to be changed. A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data, risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges that this should the case. Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared. Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry companies to change attitude and investment levels. Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed.     

Synergisms between climate change mitigation and adaptation: an insurance perspective

As the world’s largest industry, the insurance sector is both an aggregator of the impacts of climate change and a market actor able to play a material role in decreasing the vulnerability of human and natural systems. This article reviews the implications of climate change for insurers and provides specific examples of insurance-relevant synergisms between adaptation and mitigation in the buildings and energy sectors, agriculture, forestry, and land use. Although insurance is far from a “silver bullet” in addressing climate change, it offers significant capacity and ability to understand, manage, and spread risks associated with weather-related events, more so today in industrialized countries but increasingly so in developing countries and economies in transition. Certain measures that integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation also bolster insurers’ solvency and profitability, thereby increasing their appeal. Promising strategies involve innovative products and systems for delivering insurance and the use of new technologies and practices that both reduce vulnerability to disaster-related losses and support sustainable development. However, climate change promises to erode the insurability of many risks, and insurance responses can be more reactive than proactive, resulting in compromised insurance affordability and/or availability. Public–private partnerships involving insurers and entities such as the international relief community offer considerable potential, but have not been adequately explored.

Dancing to different tunes: heterospecific deciphering of the honeybee waggle dance

Although the structure of the dance language is very similar among species of honeybees, communication of the distance component of the message varies both intraspecifically and interspecifically. However, it is not known whether different honeybee species would attend interspecific waggle dances and, if so, whether they can decipher such dances. Using mixed-species colonies of Apis cerana and Apis mellifera, we show that, despite internal differences in the structure of the waggle dances of foragers, both species attend, and act on the information encoded in each other’s waggle dances but with limited accuracy. These observations indicate that direction and distance communication pre-date speciation in honeybees.     

A novel concept of Fe-mineral-based magnetoreception: histological and physicochemical data from the upper beak of homing pigeons

Animals make use of the Earth’s magnetic field for navigation and regulation of vegetative functions; however, the anatomical and physiological basis for the magnetic sense has not been elucidated yet. Our recent results from histology and X-ray analyses support the hypothesis that delicate iron-containing structures in the skin of the upper beak of homing pigeons might serve as a biological magnetometer. Histology has revealed various iron sites within dendrites of the trigeminal nerve, their arrangement along strands of axons, the existence of three dendritic fields in each side of the beak with specific 3D-orientations, and the bilateral symmetry of the whole system. Element mapping by micro-synchrotron X-ray fluorescence analysis has shown the distribution of iron and its quantities. Micro-synchrotron X-ray absorption near-edge-structure spectroscopy has allowed us to unambiguously identify maghemite as the predominating iron mineral (90 vs 10% magnetite). In this paper, we show that iron-based magnetoreception needs the presence of both of these iron minerals, their specific dimensions, shapes, and arrangements in three different subcellular compartments. We suggest that an inherent magnetic enhancement process via an iron-crusted vesicle and the attached chains of iron platelets might be sufficient to account for the sensitivity and specificity required by such a magnetoreceptor. The appropriate alignment between the Earth’s magnetic field and the maghemite bands would induce a multiple attraction of the magnetite bullets perpendicular to the membrane, thus, triggering strain-sensitive membrane channels and a primary receptor potential. Due to its 3D architecture and physicochemical nature, the dendritic system should be able to separately sense the three vector components of the Earth’s local field, simultaneously—allowing birds to detect their geographic position by the magnetic vector, i.e., amplitude and direction of the local magnetic field, irrespective of the animal’s posture or movement and photoreception.     

Emission trading in agriculture: a study of design options using an agent-based approach

The Scottish Government has proposed reducing Scotland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to the 1990 baseline level. It is not yet clear how these reductions will be achieved, but it is likely that all sectors will be expected to make some contribution. Depending on their farm activities, farmers have different sets of abatement alternatives—the challenge facing them, however, is in finding strategies that help to meet reduction targets while maintaining their income. In this paper, we use an agent-based modelling approach to study the implications of carbon trading design options aimed at reducing GHG emissions in the agricultural sector, such as auctions, fixed carbon prices, or carbon credit banking. The feasibility of carbon trading scheme options is assessed regarding their ability to ensure that farmers obtain carbon credits at an affordable and adequate price, since low prices would reward farmers not adopting on-farm abatement options and high prices would encourage non-compliance to targets, thus increasing enforcement costs. Assuming a closed market within the agricultural sector, this study shows that farmers may face up to 50% loss of income to achieve a 30% reduction target if this requires a cut in production. However, market design options such as credits banking may allow farmers to progressively adapt to the scheme constraints. At an individual level, the rate of on-farm compliance and the mandated emission reduction target will determine which farmer strategy is the most efficient to cope with a trading scheme.     

Disaster risk reduction and international catastrophe risk insurance facility

The objectives of this research are to investigate resource loss effects from flooding and to provide recommendations on disaster risk reduction policies. This research utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which found that losses of resources had major negative impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP). Transitioning from national catastrophe insurance fund to an international risk pooling approach is discussed, and as the Global Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has not yet been established, our proposal suggests the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (ACRIF) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three catastrophic bonds (ASEAN?+?3 CAT bonds) as effective means of reducing fiscal liabilities arising from natural disasters, also effectively enhancing disaster risk reduction. These tools are complementary to Catastrophe Risk Swaps which are innovative global financial adaptation strategies designed to make communities and governments more resilient to disaster damages. They are ex-ante risk financing tools and sources of liquidity for damage restoration and economic recovery, which facilitates flexibility among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) and other governments requiring special assistance. Most importantly, utilization of insurance and catastrophic bonds promotes the achievement of set objectives of global adaptation strategies, sustainable economic growth, and climate resilient development.     

Land-based carbon storage and the European union emissions trading scheme: the science underlying the policy

Climate change is occurring with greater speed and intensity that previously anticipated. All effective environmentally and socially sound mitigation efforts need to be employed to effectively address this global crisis. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) projects can provide significant climate change mitigation benefits as well as poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation benefits. The policies of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), the world’s largest carbon market exclude LULUCF. Scientific support for this exclusion was presented in a briefing paper published by the Climate Action Network—Europe (CAN) that puts forward the proposition that land based storage of carbon is ineffective. A careful review of the scientific papers cited in support of CAN’s position indicates that, while the papers themselves are scientifically sound, they do not support the continued exclusion of LULUCF projects from the EU-ETS. At the same time some important recent research papers that describe the carbon storage and social benefit potential of such projects are not included in the analysis. An in-depth consideration of the scientific evidence is necessary in evaluating this policy option. Based on this evidence a case can be made for the inclusion of LULUCF projects in the EU-ETS.     

海洋灾害保险市场道德风险防范策略研究

在海洋灾害保险市场中,高风险投保人容易利用信息不对称,伪装成低风险投保人参与到投保活动中。这种道德风险降低保险公司承保和低风险者支付的意愿,制约海洋灾害保险市场运行。通过引入信号传递机制,明确给出海洋灾害保险各局中人行为策略,并求解灾害保险参与人得益函数,解析其子博弈精炼贝叶斯均衡的实现路径,获得有效控制道德风险的海洋灾害保险定价约束条件,并基于此提出相应的对策建议。     

Bamboo in climate change and rural livelihoods

Climate change negotiations, assessments, and greenhouse gas inventory guidelines have all but bypassed bamboo. Disallowing stands of tree-like bamboos as forests disparages their function in the carbon (C) cycle, and disregards pillars of smallholder livelihoods. Exposing bamboo not as a panacea, but as an overlooked option for C conservation, sequestration, and adaptation, we screen details of distribution, morphology, growth, physiology, and impacts for pertinence to climate change. Additional to 40 million hectares of existing bamboo forests, many potential host countries for C projects harbor suitable sites. Definitions, methods and default values, such as the root/shoot- ratio, biomass conversion factors, allometric equations and sampling variables need adjusting. Rapid maturation, persistent rhizomes, a rich palette of species, and wind-firmness may mitigate risk. Bamboos can accommodate agro-and urban forestry, and reign in unsustainable shifting cultivation. Distribution functions of bamboo biomass stocks and growths do not deviate drastically from those of trees. If anything, bamboo stocks are slightly lower, and growths slightly higher, with medians of 87 t*ha⁻¹ and 10.5 t*ha⁻¹*yr⁻¹, respectively. However, bamboo’s outstanding socio-economic effects might well determine its future in mitigation and adaptation. Early, continuous yields, selective harvesting on even small parcels of land, low capital and high labor intensity, virtually 100% conversion efficiency to about 1,500 products, and, typically, 75% of economic returns benefiting rural people are advantageous attributes. Regional studies on suitability, silviculture, yields, economics, risk, and C assessment would strengthen bamboo’s function as ‘the poor man’s timber’ and promote its niche as the smallholder’s C sink.     

Adaptive governance to typhoon disasters for coastal sustainability: A case study in Guangdong,China

Globally, more people and assets are concentrated on the limited coastal plains where they are exposed to frequent disasters, such as typhoons, rainstorms and floods that often result in tremendous casualties and economic losses. Based on the causal analysis of the historical typhoon cases in the Guangdong Province of China, this study indicates that structural measures alone are not sufficient to resist and offset the impacts caused by typhoon disasters. Additionally, structural measures are unsustainable due to their high investment and low security. Adaptive governance, which uses non-structural measures and resilience building, is a feasible and cost-effective strategy for responding to the cascading effects of typhoon disasters. Multi-stakeholder participation and vertical–horizontal coordination are essential for providing adaptive governance to typhoon disasters. A risk-sharing model was put forward by bringing together the government, insurance companies and victims. Furthermore, a favorable atmosphere for public participation in disaster risk reduction can be fostered and should be a long-term adaptation strategy. The views and frameworks of adaptive governance provide policy makers with insights on coastal disaster risk management within the broader context of climate change.     

大学生减灾教育对策研究

灾害风险认知能力是进行减灾教育的基础,受众获取灾害知识与信息的方式是影响减灾教育方法的重要因素,而受众获取灾害知识与信息的途径则会直接影响灾害内容的传递效率和效果。本文针对以上所关心的问题,为了建立合理有效的大学生减灾教育计划,应对大学生防灾减灾意识和能力不足的现状,通过问卷调查,分析和研究了来自不同生源地大学生的灾害风险认知水平、获取灾害知识和信息的方式与途径。从自然灾害风险认知的视角,通过寻找不同特性大学生群体获取减灾知识与信息的差异和趋同性,提出了现势条件下针对大学生的减灾教育对策。     

Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods using a “climate change factor” approach.