Simulation of the Effect of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Fire Regimes on the Population Viability of a Banksia Species

Populations of plants that rely on seeds for recovery from disturbance by fire (obligate seeders) are sensitive to regimes of frequent fire. Obligate seeders are prominent in fire-prone heathlands of southern Australia and South Africa. Population extinction may occur if there are successive fires during a plant's juvenile period. Research on the population biology of obligate seeders has influenced the management of fire in these heath and shrublands, but work on the effects of the spatial variability of fires is lacking. We hypothesize that extinction maybe avoided under an adverse fire frequency if fires are patchy. We present a model that simulates the effects of spatial and temporal variations in fire regimes on the viability of a plant population in a grid landscape. Seedling establishment, maturation, senescence, and seed dispersal determine the presence or absence of plants in each cell. We used values typical of serotinous Banksia species to estimate probability of extinction in relation to fire frequency and size. We examined the sensitivity of predictions to dispersal, senescence, fire frequency, spatial burning pattern and size variance, and the size of the grid. Simulations 200 years in length indicated that extinction probability was lowest when mean fire frequency was intermediate and mean fire size was large. When fire frequency was high, extinction probability was high irrespective of fire size. Senescence was more important than high-frequency fire as a cause of extinction in cells. Interactions between dispersal, fire frequency, and size were complex, indicating that extinction is governed by intercell connectivity. The model indicates that fire patchiness cannot be assumed to ensure avoidance of extinction of populations. Conservation of populations is most likely when fire patchiness is relatively low—when the size of fires is moderate to large and when burned patches are contiguous.     

Reproductive Success in Reestablished versus Natural Populations of a Threatened Grassland Daisy (Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides)

Abstract: Populations of the endangered Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) have been reestablished in conservation reserves to reduce their risk of extinction in the wild. The reproductive success (number of seeds per inflorescence, percent seed set, germinability) of five small reestablished populations (at 5–10 years after establishment) was compared to that of two large natural remnant populations from which they were derived. Initial growth rates under glasshouse conditions were compared for seedlings derived from seed from remnant and reestablished populations. Seed set per inflorescence in all five reestablished populations was equal to or greater than seed set in remnant population plants. The resulting seed was as germinable, and in some cases more germinable, than seed derived from remnant populations; the seedlings then grew as large or larger than remnant population seedlings grown under glasshouse conditions. Fitness reductions in small reestablished populations of R. leptorrhynchoides are not evident at the reproductive stage. Hence, these populations have some potential to maintain natural regeneration processes and might therefore positively contribute to the conservation of this species.     

Determinants of reproductive potential and population size in open populations of Patella vulgata

The importance of external and internal population processes in determining variation in reproductive output and variation in population size were quantified with model simulations for open populations of the sequentially hermaphroditic limpet Patella vulgata using field data from the Isle of Man and South West Ireland. Cross-correlation analyses of model outputs and elasticity analyses show that population dynamics are dominated by the effects of large females, and that recruitment adds little to reproductive output. However, populations experiencing low but highly variable recruitment appear male limited and recruitment pulses carrying young males into the population are correlated to reproductive output with a 2–5-year lag. We conclude that pulses in recruitment can be a major structuring force in these limpet populations, but site-specific post-recruitment processes will determine the relative importance of recruitment to population dynamics and the lag between recruitment and reproductive output.     

Hunting Increases Dispersal Limitation in the Tree Carapa procera, a Nontimber Forest Product

Abstract:  The sustainability of seed extraction from natural populations has been questioned recently. Increased recruitment failure under intense seed harvesting suggests that seed extraction intensifies source limitation. Nevertheless, areas where more seeds are collected tend to also have more intense hunting of seed-dispersing animals. We studied whether such hunting, by limiting disperser activity, could cause quantitative dispersal limitation, especially for large crops and for crops in years of high seed abundance. In each of four Carapa procera (Meliaceae) populations in French Guiana and Surinam, two with hunting and two without, we compared seed fate for individual trees varying in crop size in years of high and low population-level seed abundance. Carapa seeds are a nontimber forest product and depend on dispersal by scatter-hoarding rodents for survival and seedling establishment. Hunting negatively affected the proportion of seeds dispersed and caused greater numbers of seeds to germinate or be infested by moths below parent trees, where they would likely die. Hunting of seed-dispersing animals disproportionally affected large seed crops, but we found no additional effect of population-level seed abundance on dispersal rates. Consistently lower rates of seed dispersal, especially for large seed crops, may translate to lower levels of seedling recruitment under hunting. Our results therefore suggest that the subsistence hunting that usually accompanies seed collection is at the cost of seed dispersal and may contribute to recruitment failure of these nontimber forest products. Seed extraction from natural populations may affect seedling recruitment less if accompanied by measures adequately incorporating and protecting seed dispersers.     

Threatened Peripheral Populations in Context: Geographical Variation in Population Frequency and Size and Sexual Reproduction in a Clonal Woody Shrub

Abstract:  Geographically peripheral populations of widespread species are often the focus of conservation because they are locally rare within political jurisdictions. Yet the ecology and genetics of these populations are rarely evaluated in a broader geographic context. Most expectations concerning the ecology and evolution of peripheral populations derive from the abundant-center model, which predicts that peripheral populations should be less frequent, smaller, less dense, and have a lower reproductive rate than central populations. We tested these predictions and in doing so evaluated the conservation value of peripheral populations for the clonal shrub Vaccinium stamineum L. (Ericaceae, deerberry), which is listed as threatened in Canada. Based on 51 populations sampled from the center to the northern range limits over 2 years, population frequency and size declined toward the range limit, but ramet density increased. Sexual reproductive output varied widely among populations and between years, with many populations producing very few seeds, but did not decline toward range margins. In fact seed mass increased steadily toward range limit, and this was associated with faster germination and seedling growth, which may be adaptive in seasonal northern environments. Our results did not support the prediction that clonal reproduction is more prevalent in peripheral populations or that it contributed antagonistically to the wide variation in seed production. Peripheral populations of V. stamineum are as productive as central populations and may be locally adapted to northern environments. This emphasizes the importance of a broad geographical perspective for evaluating the ecology, evolution, and conservation of peripheral populations.     

Effects of Population Size on Seed Production and Germinability in an Endangered, Fragmented Grassland Plant

Abstract: Fragmentation and isolation of plant populations are thought to affect demographic processes such as seed production and cause reductions in fitness. I followed seed set over a 3-year period in eight populations of the endangered Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) that differed in population size from 13 to over 5000 flowering plants. Germinability of the resultant seed was also examined to determine whether small populations had lower fitness than large populations. Seed set was significantly associated with population size in 2 of the 3 years. Small populations (<30 flowering plants) produced significantly fewer seeds per head in 1994 and 1995 than did large populations (500 to over 5000 flowering plants), which did not differ significantly from one another. There was, however, substantial variation within populations. In 1993 seed production did not follow any simple relationship with population size, possibly because environmental stress from low rainfall had an overriding impact. Differences in seed germinability between populations were largely not evident, suggesting that this aspect of fitness has not declined substantially in small populations relative to large populations. This study suggests that nongenetic, demographic factors are of immediate importance to the persistence of small populations of R. leptorrhynchoides because of their potential impacts on seedling recruitment.     

Influence of Habitat Patchiness on Genetic Diversity and Spatial Structure of a Serpentine Endemic Plant

Abstract: Conservation of rare plant species often involves small, local populations dispersed within apparently suitable habitat. We used enzyme electrophoresis to study genotypic diversity in 32 populations of Calystegia collina , a self-incompatible clonal plant endemic to serpentine substrate in northern California's Coast Range. Genotypic diversity within a population was a good predictor of seed set by randomly marked flowers. Ramets from the most abundant genotypes in a population were most likely to produce flowers, but flowers from abundant genotypes were less likely to produce seed capsules than were flowers from rarer genotypes. These results are consistent with previous findings that reproductive success in C. collina is limited by the availability of compatible pollen. On small serpentine outcrops supporting only one or two populations, C. collina did not show reduced genotypic diversity or heterozygosity compared with populations on large outcrops supporting many populations. Instead, genotypic diversity and outcrop size had strong but independent influences on reproductive success. Although large serpentine outcrops contain more populations and provide better conditions for flower and seed production, significant diversity of unique genotypes clearly exists in isolated serpentine outcrops. Our findings suggest that plant conservation strategies must take into account the natural distribution of populations. The effects of habitat fragmentation on C. collina and other plant species that occur naturally in small, discrete patches may be unlike those that have been documented in more recently fragmented species.     

Mast seeding under increasing drought: results from a long-term data set and from a rainfall exclusion experiment

Mast seeding, the synchronous, highly variable seed production among years, is very common in tree species, but there is no consensus about its main causes and the main environmental factors affecting it. In this study, we first analyze a long-term data set on reproductive and vegetative growth of Quercus ilex in a mediterranean woodland in order to identify the main environmental drivers of interannual variation in flower and seed production and contrast the impact of climate vs. adaptive factors as main causes of masting. Second, we conducted an experiment of rainfall exclusion to evaluate the effects of an increasing drought (simulating predictions of global change models) on both reproductive processes. The annual seed crop was always affected by environmental factors related to the precipitation pattern, these abiotic factors disrupting the fruiting process at different periods of time. Seed production was strongly dependent upon water availability for the plant at initial (spring) and advanced (summer) stages of the acorn maturation cycle, whereas the final step of seed development was negatively affected by the frequency of torrential-rain events. We also found clear evidence that seed masting in the study species is not only regulated by selective endogenous rhythms, but is mainly a physiological response to the variable environment. Our results from the rainfall exclusion experiment corroborated the conclusions obtained from the 26-year fruiting record and demonstrated that the high interannual variation in seed crop was mainly determined by the success in seed development rather than by the flowering effort. Under a global change scenario, it could be expected that the drier conditions predicted by climate models reinforce the negative effects of summer drought on seed production, leading to negative consequences for tree recruitment and forest dynamics.     

Latitudinal variation in the reproductive biology of the burrowing ghost shrimp Callianassa filholi (Decapoda: Thalassinidea)

Population structure and reproductive ecology of the burrowing ghost shrimp Callianassa filholi Milne-Edwards, 1878 were studied in populations along a latitudinal gradient throughout New Zealand during the breeding season. Size-frequency distributions revealed unimodal populations, with predominantly sexually mature shrimp. All populations showed an unbiased sex-ratio, and there appeared to be no significant difference in size (carapace length, CL) between sexes. At the same time, CL and size at maturity differed significantly between populations; however, a general increase in sizes from north to south was not consistent throughout the latitudinal range studied. The timing of the breeding cycle differed significantly between populations, and breeding started earlier in southern populations. Number of embryos (fecundity) increased linearly with female CL at each location, but rates differed significantly between populations. Embryo size was not related to number of embryos, and the former increased significantly with latitude. With the exception of embryo size, observed differences in body size/size at maturity and reproductive timing between C. filholi populations are thought to be determined by food availability rather than temperature. Thus, further study is suggested on these aspects of thalassinid reproductive biology. Received: 17 June 1999 / Accepted: 8 January 2000     

A spatial gradient in the potential reproductive output of the sea mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus californianus</Emphasis>

Spatial variation in reproductive output from different populations within a region could have important consequences for recruitment, and cascading effects on populations and communities of marine species, but is rarely examined over meso-scales (i.e., tens to hundreds of kilometers). In this study, reproduction in the dominant mid-intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus, was examined from sites spanning Point Conception, California over a 6-month period (March–August 2000). There was a dramatic geographic pattern in the relationship between size and potential reproductive output that was qualitatively similar across all 6 months sampled. Increases in allocation to reproductive tissue with increasing body size occurred at all sites, but the slope nearly doubled at sites south of Point Conception compared to northern sites. The spatial variation in size-specific reproductive output, coupled with additional spatial gradients in mussel density and size distributions, combined to increase total reproductive output by over eightfold at southern relative to northern sites. This study highlights the need to explicitly examine spatial patterns of reproductive output at these meso-scales, in order to better understand connectivity and source–sink dynamics in marine systems.     

Effects of the Size of Prescribed Fire on Insect Predation of Northern Blazing Star, a Rare Grassland Perennial

Abstract: Loss of native grassland habitat in New England has reached>90%. Consequently, remaining grasslands persist as small, geographically isolated fragments, and populations of many plants and animals have declined or disappeared. Given the rarity of the fauna and flora of these habitats, ecological management of many of the remaining native grassland fragments in a manner that attempts to mimic natural processes has been intensive, and the effects of this management on some taxa, such as grassland birds, are now well understood. But the effects of management, especially prescribed fire, on native plants and invertebrates are less well known. I studied the effects of prescribed fire on northern blazing star ( Liatris scariosa var. novae-angliae), a rare grassland perennial endemic to the northeastern United States. Once distributed from southern Maine to northern New Jersey, northern blazing star has disappeared from 69% of the sites where it formerly occurred. Seed predation appears to be a critical proximate factor limiting recruitment of juveniles into local populations. Seven of 8 study sites in Maine and Massachusetts had a 65% average rate of seed predation, and there was no evidence of juvenile recruitment at these sites. None of these sites had been burned in the past 5 years. Experimental research at Kennebunk, Maine, demonstrated that, in the absence of fire, seed viability of northern blazing star was low, the result of larval microlepidopteran ( moth) predators in the flower heads. Prescribed fire temporarily reduced seed predation from approximately 90% to approximately 16% for 1 year following fire, but seed-predation levels once again approached 90% within 2 years. Prescribed fires larger than 13 ha helped reduce predation rates, but fires smaller than 6 ha did not, suggesting that dispersal of adult moths from unburned source areas was spatially limited. Preferably, prescribed burns should be larger than 10 ha, large enough to have core areas larger than 100 m from adjoining unburned units. My results suggest that prescribed fire should be an important component of habitat management for northern blazing star, and they emphasize the need to carefully study the effects of the spatial scale of prescribed fires in other geographic regions and for a broad range of taxa.     

Aspects of population ecology in two populations of fiddler crabs, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Uca pugnax</Emphasis>

Fiddler crabs, Uca pugnax, were collected from a highly contaminated site and a relatively clean site, both in New Jersey to determine if and how environments with varying levels of pollutants may impact aspects of population biology including individual size, morphology (major cheliped size), population density, fecundity, recruitment and survivorship of early benthic phases. Crabs from the highly contaminated site were significantly larger in size, but had lower population density, lower recruitment, reduced reproductive season and lower survivorship of early benthic phases. Our study suggests that contamination may play a role in population ecology of U. pugnax. This study also determined that the reproductive season for U. pugnax in New Jersey is much longer than reported in the literature and could potentially be impacted by global climate change.     

Conservation of the Marbled Murrelet under the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  The Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) was listed as threatened in 1992, primarily because of loss of its old-forest nesting habitat. Monitoring conducted over the first 10 years following implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan shows at-sea murrelet populations appear to be stationary, but recruitment is very low and demographic models project a 4–6% annual rate of decline. Monitoring of nesting habitat indicated there were about 1.6 million ha of higher-suitability nesting habitat on all lands at the start of the plan, about half of which occurred on federal lands. Most (88%) of higher-suitability habitat on federal lands was protected within reserves. Over the past 10 years, losses of habitat due primarily to fire have totaled about 2% on federal lands. Losses have been much greater (12%) on nonfederal lands, due primarily to timber harvest. Habitat is expected to accrue within reserves as younger forest matures and attains sufficient diameter to support nesting sites. At-sea estimates of population size are strongly and positively correlated with amounts of adjacent nesting habitat at a broad scale, supporting the idea that amounts of nesting habitat are a primary driver in wide-scale murrelet population distribution. Conditions at sea, however, such as temperature regimes, prey availability, and pollutants, continue to affect murrelet populations. The system of large reserves seems to have achieved the short-term objective of conserving much of the remaining nesting habitat on federal lands. These reserves are also likely to contribute to the long-term objective of creating large, contiguous blocks of nesting habitat. The plan has a primary role in conserving and restoring nesting habitat on federal land but will succeed in this role only if land allocations calling for such protection are in place for many decades.     

Conserving Slow-Growing, Long-Lived Tree Species: Input from the Demography of a Rare Understory Conifer, Taxus floridana

Abstract:  Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates.     

Analyzing the spatial structure of a Sri Lankan tree species with multiple scales of clustering

Clustering at multiple critical scales may be common for plants since many different factors and processes may cause clustering. This is especially true for tropical rain forests for which theories explaining species coexistence and community structure rest heavily on spatial patterns. We used point pattern analysis to analyze the spatial structure of Shorea congestiflora, a dominant species in a 25-ha forest dynamics plot in a rain forest at Sinharaja World Heritage Site (Sri Lanka), which apparently shows clustering at several scales. We developed cluster processes incorporating two critical scales of clustering for exploring the spatial structure of S. congestiflora and interpret it in relation to factors such as competition, dispersal limitation, recruitment limitation, and Janzen-Connell effects. All size classes showed consistent large-scale clustering with a cluster radius of approximately 25 m. Inside the larger clusters, small-scale clusters with a radius of 8 m were evident for recruits and saplings, weak for intermediates, and disappeared for adults. The pattern of all trees could be divided into two independent patterns: a random pattern (nearest neighbor distance > 8 m) comprising approximately 12% of the trees and a nested double-cluster pattern. This finding suggests two independent recruitment and/or seed dispersal mechanisms. Saplings were several times as abundant as recruits and may accumulate several recruit generations. Recruits were only weakly associated with adults and occupied about half of the large-scale clusters, but saplings almost all. This is consistent with recruitment limitation. For approximately 70% (95%) of all juveniles the nearest adult was less than 26 m away (53 m), suggesting a dispersal limitation that may also be related to the critical large-scale clustering. Our example illustrates the manner in which the use of a specific and complex null hypothesis of spatial structure in point pattern analysis can help us better understand the biology of a species and generate specific hypotheses to be further investigated in the field.     

Are trade-offs in plant resprouting manifested in community seed banks?

Trade-offs in allocation to resprouting vs. seedling regeneration in plants are predicted to occur along fire disturbance gradients. Increased resprouting ability should be generally favored in plant communities with a high probability of crown fire return. Hence, communities dominated by resprouters are predicted to have smaller seed banks than those dominated by species killed by fire. We tested whether there were trait shifts in resprouting ability among growth forms (short-lived herbaceous vs. ground-dwelling perennials vs. shrubs) and among communities (rocky outcrop vs. sclerophyll forest) with contrasting probabilities of crown fire return. Resprouting was more common in ground-dwelling perennials and in the sclerophyll forest community with a high probability of crown fire. Soil seed banks were sampled in rocky outcrop and sclerophyll forest communities in recently burned (18 months) and long-since-burned (12 years) locations at interspersed replicated sites. Collected seed banks were treated with orthogonal treatments of fire stimuli or no stimuli, and seedling emergence was measured in controlled conditions. Seed bank composition reflected the pattern of extant vegetation, with resprouting species being more common in the community with a higher probability of crown fire. Overall, however, resprouting species were poorly represented in the seed bank compared to those species killed by fire. Predicted shifts in allocation to seed production were strongly manifested in community seed banks across the disturbance gradient. Fewer species, seedlings, and seedlings per adult emerged from seed banks in the sclerophyll forest. This suggests that the dominance of resprouting species influences recruitment at the community scale. Community patterns in the seed bank also reflected predicted trade-offs with plant size and growth rate. Short-lived species that are killed by fire dominated the seed bank on rocky outcrops, while longer-lived resprouting species were found in low abundance. Life history trade-offs in persistence and regeneration strongly contribute to coexistence patterns between and within communities with contrasting probabilities of fire return.     

Reproductive success increases with degree of kinship in cooperative coalitions of female red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

Evaluation of evolutionary mechanisms proposed to promote cooperative behavior depends on the relative influence of the behavior on the reproductive success of individuals, the reproductive success of the group in which they interact behaviorally, and the degree of gene correlation among cooperators. The genetic relationship within cooperative coalitions of female red howler monkeys was examined for three populations with different densities and growth rates. Patterns of gene correlation change within coalitions is documented using data from the mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, and long-term census monitoring. Differences in fecundity and infant survivorship within and between groups of unrelated (rˉ=0) and related (rˉ≥ 0.25) females are compared. Females that emigrate from their natal groups form coalitions with other migrant females. These coalitions attempt to establish a territory and, once successful in producing offspring, exclude other females from feeding resources. Females in these coalitions had different mtDNA haplotypes and a genetically estimated mean r of 0, supporting demographic data on emigration patterns indicating that these females rarely have the opportunity to form coalitions with kin. Patterns of recruitment and rate of matriline development within social groups supported behavioral data indicating that females actively attempt to promote their own matriline as breeders over that of other females, and that some matrilines are more successful at this than others. Mean r among females was significantly higher in coalitions established as social groups for several generations (rˉ=0.44). In these groups, females all shared the same mtDNA haplotype, and mtDNA haplotype divergence was significantly higher between than within groups. Females in coalitions with kin had significantly higher reproductive success than females in unrelated coalitions in all populations. This difference was not a function of coalition size, number of males, socionomic sex ratio, or primiparity, although anecdotal evidence suggests that allomothering may compensate for inept new mothers in related coalitions more often than in unrelated ones. Differences in territory quality could not be ruled out as a potential causal factor in the saturated populations, but were unlikely in the low-density, growing population. There were substantial differences among long-established coalitions in overall reproductive output in all three populations, and this was significantly correlated with the number of breeding females. Increase in coalition size was a function of both group age and the behavioral tolerance among females. Regardless of the underlying reasons for the patterns observed, reproductive success clearly increases with degree of gene correlation among females within cooperative coalitions, and coalitions that recruit more daughters produce more offspring. The nature of the cooperative relationship among group females directly influences both of these outcomes. This is associated with substantial genetic differentiation among social groups within populations, creating conditions in which genetic tendencies towards cooperative behavior can become tightly associated with group reproductive success. Received: 15 September 1999 / Revised: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 27 May 2000     

Causes and consequences of unequal seedling production in forest trees: a case study in red oaks

Inequality in reproductive success has important implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but lifetime reproductive success is challenging to measure in long-lived species such as forest trees. While seed production is often used as a proxy for overall reproductive success, high mortality of seeds and the potential for trade-offs between seed number and quality draw this assumption into question. Parentage analyses of established seedlings can bring us one step closer to understanding the causes and consequences of variation in reproductive success. In this paper we demonstrate a new method for estimating individual seedling production and average percentage germination, using data from two mixed-species populations of red oaks (Quercus rubra, Q. velutina, Q. falcata, and Q. coccinea). We use these estimates to examine the distribution of female reproductive success and to test the relationship between seedling number and individual seed production, age, and growth rate. We show that both seed and seedling production are highly skewed, roughly conforming to zero-inflated lognormal distributions, rather than to the Poisson or negative-binomial distributions often assumed by population genetics analyses. While the number of established offspring is positively associated with mean annual seed production, a lower proportion of seeds from highly fecund individuals become seedlings. Our red oak populations also show evidence of trade-offs between growth rate and reproductive success. The high degree of inequality in seedling production shown here for red oaks, and by previous studies in other species, suggests that many trees may be more vulnerable to genetic drift than previously thought, if immigration in limited by fragmentation or other environmental changes.     

Local extinction of grassland plants: the landscape matrix is more important than patch attributes

Past studies of local extinctions in fragmented habitats most often tested the influence of fragment size and isolation while ignoring how differences in the surrounding landscape matrix may govern extinction. We assessed how both the spatial attributes of remnant patches (area and isolation) and landscape factors (extent of urbanization and maximum inter-fire interval) influence the persistence of native plant species in grasslands in western Victoria, Australia. Persistence was determined in 2001 by resurveying 30 remnants first surveyed in the 1980s, and correlates of extinction were assessed using Bayesian logistic regression models. On average, 26% of populations of native species became locally extinct over two decades. Area and isolation had little effect on the probability of local extinction, but urbanization and longer maximum inter-fire intervals increased extinction risk. These findings suggest that the native grasslands studied are relatively insensitive to area- and isolation-based fragmentation effects and that short-term persistence of plant populations requires the maintenance of habitat quality. The latter is strongly influenced by the landscape matrix surrounding remnant patches through changes in fire regimes and increased exogenous disturbance.     

Habitat complexity modifies post-settlement mortality and recruitment dynamics of a marine fish

For species that have an open population structure, local population size may be strongly influenced by a combination of propagule supply and post-settlement survival. While it is widely recognized that supply of larvae (or recruits) is variable and that variable recruitment may affect the relative contribution of pre- and post-settlement factors, less effort has been made to quantify how variation in the strength of post-settlement mortality (particularly density-dependent mortality) will affect the importance of processes that determine population size. In this study, I examined the effects of habitat complexity on mortality of blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) within nearshore reefs off central California. I first tested whether variation in habitat complexity (measured as three-dimensional complexity of rocky substrate) affected the magnitude of both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. I then used limitation analysis to quantify how variation in habitat complexity alters the relative influence of recruitment, density-independent mortality, and density-dependent mortality in determining local population size. Increased habitat complexity was associated with a reduction in both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. At low levels of habitat complexity, limitation analysis revealed that mortality was strong and recruitment had relatively little influence on population size. However, as habitat complexity increased, recruitment became more important. At the highest levels of habitat complexity, limitation by recruitment was substantial, although density-dependent mortality was ultimately the largest constraint on population size. In high-complexity habitats, population dynamics may strongly reflect variation in recruitment even though fluctuations may be dampened by density-dependent mortality. By affecting both density-independent and density-dependent mortality, variation in habitat complexity may result in qualitative changes in the dynamics of populations. These findings suggest that the relative importance of pre- vs. post-settlement factors may be determined by quantifiable habitat features, rather than ambient recruitment level alone. Because the magnitude of recruitment fluctuations can affect species coexistence and the persistence of populations, habitat-driven changes in population dynamics may have important consequences for both community structure and population viability.