基于有序Probit模型的铁路险兆事件影响因素识别研究*

为识别铁路险兆事件的影响因素,以宜春车务段2017年9月—2017年10月共1 870条数据为样本,以铁路险兆事件等级为因变量,事件原因、环境特征和事件特征为自变量建立有序Probit模型,探究人、设备、环境和管理因素对铁路险兆事件严重影响程度。研究结果表明:设备设施未按规定防护是影响严重性险兆事件发生的主要因素;与其他人为因素相比,未执行相关作业规定对增加险兆事件严重程度有显著作用。研究结果可为铁路管理部门实现事故预控提供依据。     

多层次模糊评估法在民航不安全事件风险评估中的应用

通过对民航企业安全系统特点的分析,从导致不安全事件发生的人-机-环境-管理4个子系统中的不安全因素出发,采用层次分析、模糊评判和加权平均相结合的方法,分别计算了不安全事件发生的可能性和后果严重程度的指标,在该基础上得到了不安全事件发生的综合风险度,建立了民航企业不安全事件风险评估指标体系和评估方法.根据风险度评价矩阵和标准,企业可采取相应的风险控制措施,对不安全事件进行全面的管理,避免发生危险.     

基于TEM模型的民航不安全事件关联规则挖掘与分析*

为了预防民航不安全事件的发生,应用机组威胁与差错管理（TEM）模型分析2014—2020年民航事故/征候的航空安全报告资料,提取事件里存在于民航运行风险中潜在的情况、威胁、机组差错等因素,通过改进的关联规则方法挖掘其中的关联关系,包括挖掘与事件严重程度有关的因素,找到TEM模型中的关键因素和影响航空器结束状态的致因因素,并进行关联网络图分析。研究结果表明:手动操纵/飞行控制差错、缺少/不足的飞行培训和安全管理、飞行员之间沟通差错与程序执行错误是造成事故/征候的显著因素;关联规则能够有效利用航空安全报告信息,通过定量的方法挖掘事故/征候的特征,找到影响民航不安全事件的强关联因素,为民航安全管理人员提供决策依据。     

铁路事故致因与风险分析

为保障铁路运输安全、预防铁路事故的发生,全面系统地分析各种铁路安全影响因素。基于美国2005年铁路事故的相关统计资料,采用灰色系统理论分析铁路事故致因,确定不同事故类型中各安全影响因素的主次关系;并以蒙特卡罗风险分析方法为基础,运用@Risk软件从人-机-环及时间的角度出发,对各因素的风险概率进行拟合。结果表明:人员-设备因素是导致事故的主要因素,针对人员-设备因素采取适当的预防措施便能有效减少铁路事故的发生。     

Process industry accidents in Sri Lanka: Analysis and basic lessons learnt

Accidents in the process industry could be prevented or reduced by having good safety management measures. Such preventive measures could be further improved through the experiences and lessons learnt from past accidents. Therefore, analysis results of past accidents are valuable sources of information for determining root causes and as case material to prevent and reduce the adverse consequences of accidents in the process industry.This paper looks at accidents in the process industry that have occurred in the past 10 years from 1997 to 2006 in Sri Lanka to gain an understanding of the nature and consequences of accidents. Lessons and main areas of concern to improve safety in the Sri Lanka process industry are discussed. The analysis is done for different event types based on specific operating process stage during which the accident occurred such as processing, loading and unloading, repair and maintenance and storage, the immediate effect types such as fire, explosion, chemical releases and emissions and the consequences of each accident. Fire incidents were observed in 38 accidents analyzed. The results show that the highest number of accidents has occurred during processing operations followed by accidents during maintenance and repair work. The cause analysis shows that many accidents have occurred due to technical and human failures.The accidents are then classified according to the severity of the consequences in order to compare the nature of accidents experienced in Sri Lanka with respect to accidents in other countries in the world.     

2017年校园设施安全事故统计分析与风险防控

为进一步预防校园设施安全事故的发生,笔者收集部分2017年度的校园设施安全事故进行了统计分析,分析发现:生活设施安全事故与校车安全事故是2017年校园设施安全事故发生的主要类型;与2016年相比,2017年校园设施安全事故有所增加。针对2017年校园设施安全事故情况,笔者从安全风险防控角度在完善制度及相应的责任机制方面和加强学校师生的安全风险防范意识方面提出相应的建议措施。     

城市公共设施安全事故责任主体的辨析

城市公共设施的安全已经影响到社会的正常运转及人们生活的安定。我国大多数城市的公共设施建设与管理比较薄弱，安全事故层出不穷。为了减少事故的发生率，我们必须分析事故的本质原因以及找出事故责任单位，并采取有效的预防措施，将事故控制在萌芽状态。     

Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry

Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.     

中国民航业安全风险监测与仿真研究

根据系统安全的思想,通过对航空安全历史数据的分析和专家经验,从人员、设备设施、环境和组织管理4个方面,提出中国民航机务、空管、飞行、机场4个分系统安全风险监测指标体系,共102个风险因素指标,并合成为27个行业安全风险监测指标。以民航历史数据为样本,建立资源优化神经网络(RON)模型,将安全风险监测指标与中国民航安全指数相联系,分析安全指数的关键影响因素,达到安全管理决策支持的目的。通过建立的风险监测指标体系和RON模型,可以实现民航整个行业、各分系统及单个指标的安全风险监测和预警。     

Investigating safety of vulnerable road users in selected EU countries

Problem: Vulnerable road users comprise over half of all road accident victims in the EU and their safety situation is not improving as fast as for motorists. The paper examines factors affecting fatality risk of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and moped riders in seven EU countries using data from CARE database. Method: Comparing accident severity indicators between countries is problematic because of data quality issues, different degree of underreporting, and different exposure levels. To avoid bias arising from these issues, fatality risk is modeled with binary logistic regression. Risk factors considered include accident location by area type, junction type, and traffic control, as well as lighting condition. Results are presented as odds ratios of fatal accident outcome in different countries under specific circumstances compared to reference conditions. It is shown that the error in OR values due to underreporting is small. Results and discussion: Wide confidence intervals of the odds ratios in some countries confirm problems with accident data quality. Fatality risk is always higher for non-urban versus urban area and for darkness versus daylight conditions, but the odds ratios are different for different countries. Inconsistent results are obtained for accident location with respect to junction and its control type. Possible reasons for these differences are suggested and discussed. Practical applications: The proposed method avoids the data quality bias of accident severity indicators, thus, it can be used in international comparisons of vulnerable road user accidents. The article findings also support the concept of changes in legislation, such as reducing the speed limit in urban areas in Poland at night. Generally, the experience of countries with low VRU fatality risk identified in the article can be transferred to those with a higher risk.     

Application of risk analysis in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector: An overview

In recent years, the global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an energy source is increasing at a very fast rate. In order to meet this demand, a large number of facilities such as platforms, FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading), FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) and LNG ships and terminals are required for the storage, processing and transportation of LNG. Failure of any of these facilities may expose the market, companies, personnel and the environment to hazards, hence making the application of risk analysis to the LNG sector a very topical issue throughout the world. To assess the risk of accidents associated with LNG facilities and carriers, various risk analysis approaches have been employed to identify the potential hazards, calculate the probability of accidents, as well as assessing the severity of consequences. Nonetheless, literature on classification of the risk analysis models applied to LNG facilities is very limited. Therefore, to reveal the holistic issues and future perspectives on risk analysis of LNG facilities, a systematic review of the current state-of-the-art research on LNG risk analysis is necessary. The aim of this paper is to review and categorize the published literature about the problems associated with risk analysis of LNG facilities, so as to improve the understanding of stakeholders (researchers, regulators, and practitioners). To achieve this aim, scholarly articles on LNG risk analysis are identified, reviewed, and then categorized according to risk assessment methods (qualitative, semi-qualitative or quantitative; deterministic or probabilistic; conventional or dynamic), tools (ETA, FTA, FMEA/FMECA, Bayesian network), output/strategy (RBI, RBM, RBIM, facility siting, etc.), data sources (OREDA handbook, published literature, UK HSE databases, regulatory agencies' reports, industry datasets, and experts’ consultations), applications (LNG carriers and LNG fuelled ships, LNG terminals and stations, LNG offshore floating units, LNG plants), etc. Our study will not only be useful to researchers engaged in these areas but will also assist regulators, policy makers, and operators of LNG facilities to find the risk analysis models that fit their specific requirements.     

由53起较大以上事故探讨农产品加工企业风险特征

系统检索并整理了自2001年以来,我国发生在农产品加工行业的53起较大以上事故,从事故类型、企业产品类型、承包商、施救不当和年度事故分布等角度对这些事故进行分析。结果表明,农产品加工企业事故风险具有一定的行业特点,主要表现在中毒窒息事故比较多,因施救不当而导致事故扩大的问题比较突出;粮食和酒精、养殖、饲料和腌渍制品企业风险相对较高。分析结果对指导企业如何防止较大以上事故具有重要的指导意义。     

Factors in offshore planning that affect the risk for major accidents

The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyse a typical planning process in the offshore industry from the perspective of causes of major accidents, with the ultimate aim of identifying factors that affect the risk for major accidents occurring. We first study and describe a typical planning process for offshore oil and gas operations in Norway. Then we analyse a number of theories of major accidents, to see how the different theories and their explanations of causes and contributing factors can be of relevance for future plans and planning processes. Finally, we review accident investigations to search for evidence of how weaknesses in planning processes can contribute to major accidents through the above identified factors. Also, we try to identify any additional factors that have not been recognised through the theoretical review. This provides empirical support for the theoretical basis. Thirteen factors which directly or indirectly can influence the planning process causing a major accident potential are identified. These are exemplified through a review of investigation reports. The paper suggests that planning process should focus more on increasing quality in the plans at an early phase, with examples from incidents, and illustrate the relation between planning quality and potential for major accidents.     

Database for accidents and incidents in the fuel ethanol industry

The purpose of the present research is to collect information about accidents and incidents that have occurred at fuel ethanol facilities from 1998 to October 2014, and to keep complete unified records of them in a database. The developed database contains general information about the accident or incident, its sequence, mitigation measures, its causes and consequences for humans, environment and for the plant. Until now, this information is not available. The work consisted in gathering information from different documental sources and subsequent organization in a database. It complements the previous work made for biodiesel industry and fills the existing gap in the field of ethanol. Knowledge about this information enables us to manage plant risks, since the accidents that are more likely to occur and the main sources of risk can be easily identified. Also, it makes it possible to exchange information with interested third parties. Statistical analysis shows that accident frequency has an oscillatory behavior, rising in the last year. Fire is the most common type of accident, while equipment mechanical failure is the main cause of accident. Partial material loss has been identified as the most common consequence. Finally, some conclusions are obtained concerning to the importance of having an updated and complete accident and incident database.     

基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。     

近十年中国民航事故及事故征候的统计分析

对1996—2005年我国民航发生的32起事故及1147起事故征候进行统计分析,其结果表明:我国民航事故和事故征候的万架次率及万时率均呈下降态势,机组、机械和机务原因是我国民航事故和事故征候的主要原因,事故征候的主要类型是鸟击、空中停车、偏出/冲出跑道/场外接地,事故征候发生阶段依次为巡航、起飞、着陆、爬升和进近。该研究成果有助于寻找事故和事故征候成因和规律。明确安全管理重点和难点;采取有效的预警和预控对策。     

Impact of safety attitude,safety knowledge and safety leadership on chemical industry workers’ risk perception based on Structural Equation Modelling and System Dynamics

In chemical industry, major accidents occur occasionally. Past research has demonstrated that risk perception was relevant to safety as it might affect the behavior, which could exert influence on the probability of accidents. It is important to adjust workers' risk perception to reduce accidents in chemical industry. To achieve this goal, some key influencing factors of workers’ risk perception of were identified from 3 aspects including safety attitude, safety knowledge and safety leadership. This was accomplished by gathering empirical data from 287 workers employed in 6 Chemical plants in Jiangsu, China. The model of influencing factors of risk perception for workers was established based on Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and the path coefficients and weights were analyzed by the SEM. On that basis, the System Dynamics (SD) model of risk perception for workers was established. The study findings revealed safety attitude and safety leadership have a direct positive impact on perception of risk probability and perception of risk severity, safety knowledge has a direct positive impact on perception of risk severity, while safety knowledge has no direct positive impact on perception of risk probability. The findings of the study can provide theoretical supports and method guidance for adjusting the risk perception of workers in chemical industry.     

Method for quantitative assessment of the domino effect in industrial sites

Accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial sites. The most typical primary incidents for a domino effect sequence are explosions (57%), followed by fires (43%) (Abdolhamidzadeh et al., 2010). These former can generate three escalation vectors (heat load, overpressure, and fragments), and may affect the surrounding equipments and/or facilities. If the affected targets are damaged, they may also explode and generate other threats to other surrounding facilities and so on. These chains of accidents may lead to catastrophic consequences and may affect not only the industrial sites, but also people, environment and economy. This paper presents a methodology for quantitative assessment of domino effects caused by fire and explosion on storage areas. The individual and societal risks are also estimated.     

Analysis of factors that influence hazardous material transportation accidents based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

In this study, we applied Bayesian networks to prioritize the factors that influence hazardous material (Hazmat) transportation accidents. The Bayesian network structure was built based on expert knowledge using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, and the structure was modified based on a test for conditional independence. We collected and analyzed 94 cases of Chinese Hazmat transportation accidents to compute the posterior probability of each factor using the expectation-maximization learning algorithm. We found that the three most influential factors in Hazmat transportation accidents were human factors, the transport vehicle and facilities, and packing and loading of the Hazmat. These findings provide an empirically supported theoretical basis for Hazmat transportation corporations to take corrective and preventative measures to reduce the risk of accidents.     

The INDICATE safety program: evaluation of a method to proactively improve airline safety performance

A number of recent and highly publicised fatal aircraft accidents, within the Australian regional airline industry, has highlighted the need for operators of regular public transport aircraft to be more proactive in identifying and addressing aviation safety hazards. Despite this need, there are currently few proactive safety management programs that are practical, simple, cost effective and which reliably demonstrate improvements in airline safety performance. This paper outlines a new proactive airline safety program called INDICATE (Identifying Needed Defences In the Civil Aviation Transport Environment) that has been applied within the Australian regional airline industry. To evaluate the INDICATE program, a major Australian regional airline agreed to implement the program in one of its operational bases while another base was used as a control group. Five evaluation criteria were applied to determine whether the program would have a positive influence on the airline's safety performance. These criteria included airline safety culture, staff risk perception of aviation safety hazards, willingness of staff to report safety hazards, action taken on identified safety hazards and staff comments about safety management within the airline. Results from the trial suggest that the program can have a positive influence on airline safety performance, specifically: improving staff confidence in how safety is managed, increasing staff willingness to report safety hazards and incidents, improving organisational safety culture and reducing staff perceptions of the severity and likelihood of safety hazards occurring within the airline. The success of the trial has resulted in a number of Australian and International airlines adopting the program.