Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Working Conference

Conference Report

Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Working Conference     

Integrated Environmental Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region with Analytical Network Process

A decision analysis method for integrating environmental indicators was developed. This was a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Being able to take into account the interdependency among variables, the method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States, we were able to point out areas which were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration regarding various environmental aspects. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of conventional multivariate statistics (PCA) and decision-making science tool (ANP) for integrated environmental assessment.     

Assessing the Impacts of Forests on Human Welfare: Preliminary Results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

This paper presents results from the first phase of the socio-economic assessment of forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). First, we present results of the analysis of changes in the distribution of human population and forest land use in the region. Then, trends in wood products employment and income between 1975–95 are used to examine the economic contributions of forest-based industries in the Mid-Atlantic region. Between 1970–90 the population of the MAIA region increased by 14% (4.3 million people) resulting in the average population density increasing by 25 people per square mile from 179 to 204 people per square mile. Nevertheless, population density was lower in large parts of the region in 1990 than in 1950. Although forests dominate the MAIA landscape, the trend is toward more people owning smaller forest land holdings, with developed lands increasing by 21% and rural lands decreasing by 2.64% between 1982–94. All of this suggests increasing forest fragmentation in all states of the region except New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Forest industry has been an important contributor to the economy of the MAIA region, producing an average of a quarter million jobs (2.03% of all wage employment) and generating $4.5 billion in wages and salaries each year between 1975–95. If recent trends continue, forest industry will continue to be an important source of employment and income for parts of some states in the MAIA region; however, the forest industry's importance relative to the entire mid-Atlantic economy will likely continue to decline in the 21^st century.     

Geographic Analysis of Species Richness and Community Attributes of Forest Birds from Survey Data in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Region

Species richness of local communities is a state variable commonly used in community ecology and conservation biology. Investigation of spatial and temporal variations in richness and identification of factors associated with these variations form a basis for specifying management plans, evaluating these plans, and for testing hypotheses of theoretical interest. However, estimation of species richness is not trivial: species can be missed by investigators during sampling sessions. Sampling artifacts can lead to erroneous conclusions on spatial and temporal variation in species richness. Here we use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to estimate parameters describing the state of bird communities in the Mid-Atlantic Assessment (MAIA) region: species richness, extinction probability, turnover and relative species richness. We use a recently developed approach to estimation of species richness and related parameters that does not require the assumption that all the species are detected during sampling efforts. The information presented here is intended to visualize the state of bird communities in the MAIA region. We provide information on 1975 and 1990. We also quantified the changes between these years. We summarized and mapped the community attributes at a scale of management interest (watershed units).     

The European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment

Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) can be loosely defined as policy‐relevant, multidisciplinary research on environmental issues. Many, diverse activities in this broad field are ongoing, but the approaches lack the structure, standardization and quality control common in disciplinary research. IEA has three stages: “structuring the problem”, “analyzing the problem” and “communicating the findings and insights”. Each stage has its inherent difficulties, not least because problem definition and analysis are neither separable nor unambiguous nor unique. Difficulties are exacerbated in the first and third stages by the necessity for science and policy to work together. Difficulties are exacerbated in the second stage by the necessity of different scientific disciplines to cooperate. The European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment is an initiative to improve scientific quality and policy‐relevance of IEA, by organizing two series of workshops, one looking in detail at current and desired scientific practices, the other reviewing current and establishing further applications of IEA to environmental issues in Europe. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessment of the Condition of Agricultural Lands in Five Mid-Atlantic States

Indicators of the condition and sustainability of agricultural lands in five Mid-Atlantic states were measured in 1994. Indicators were selected to reflect crop productivity and land stewardship on annually harvested herbaceous crop (AHHC) land, which covers almost 10% of the land area in this region. Overall, condition of agricultural lands in the region is good. Crops generally yielded more than those grown in the 1980s, with a mean observed/expected yield index greater than 1. The mean soil quality index was slightly better than a "moderate" rating for crop growth. Almost 2/3 of the AHHC land is covered by crop rotation plans, with the remaining land mostly in hay fields. Insecticides were applied to less than 20% of AHHC land, and less than 20% of the land where pesticides were applied has high to moderately high potential for pesticides leaching into groundwater. However, integrated pest management (IPM) is practiced on less than 20% of AHHC land. Hay showed more efficient use of nitrogen than seed crops, and non-tilled sites, which are mostly hay, had more microbial biomass (suggesting more nutrient cycling) than tilled sites. This information could provide a baseline for a long-term monitoring program for agroecosystems in the region.     

An Integrated Approach for Impact Assessment of Water Harvesting Techniques in Dry Areas: The Case of Oued Oum Zessar Watershed (Tunisia)

In the arid regions of Tunisia, considerable investments are being made to maintain the old water harvesting techniques and introduce new ones to capture the scarce amount of rainwater (100 mm to 230 mm annually) for agricultural and domestic purposes. However, no detailed assessment of the multiple effects and the costs and benefits of these techniques have been made so far. This paper summarizes the results of an in depth investigation of the multiple impacts (runoff mobilization, ground water recharge, agro-socio-economic impacts) of the water harvesting works undertaken in the watershed of oued Oum Zessar (southeastern Tunisia). The importance of interdisciplinary and integrated approaches was revealed through this detailed impact assessment and economic evaluation. In fact, the profitability of the water harvesting works depends largely on the criteria chosen. However, further refinements are needed to better include all possible impacts (positive and negative) that occur as a result of the installation of the water harvesting structures.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

The Spatial-Scale Effect of an Atmospheric Environmental Impact Assessment in Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment (R-SEA)

When evaluating the atmospheric environment in regional strategic environment assessment (R-SEA), the variation and choice of the spatial scale have a substantial influence on the conclusions of the assessment. In this study, we used numerical simulation to investigate the spatial-scale effect. Two varying spatial extents and two varying spatial details of pollutant emission data (emission inventories in this case) were provided for numerical modeling, and output distributions of atmospheric pollutants at different air pollution levels were compared. The results show that the resolution and spatial range of data collection do indeed influence the atmospheric prediction and assessment results in R-SEA. The spatial-scale effect is more significant under the air pollution condition than under excellent and good air quality conditions. A comparison of varying spatial extents of emission inventory shows that narrowing the prediction area to a local scale is more conducive to identifying the impact of local pollution sources. A comparison of varying spatial details of emission inventory indicates that a higher resolution is favorable for identifying local high concentrations of pollutants and their locations.     

Transparency and Control in Engineering Integrated Assessment Models

Better software engineering such as archiving releases with version control, writing portable code, publishing documentation and results closely tied to the code improves integrated assessment models' transparency and control. A case study of four climate change policy analysis models found that source code and data was generally available, but for larger models licenses were more restrictive with respect to modification and redistribution. It is suggested that Free software licenses such as the GNU GPL would improve transparency and control. Moreover, opening the source allows opening the development process, a potentially important tool to improve collaboration, data sharing and models integration. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Desertification Evaluated Using an Integrated Environmental Assessment Model

Desertification has been defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities (United Nations, 1992). A technique for identifying and assessing areas at risk fordesertification in the arid, semi-arid, and subhumid regionsof the United States was developed by the Desert Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using selected environmental indicators integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). Five indicators were selected: potential erosion, grazing pressure, climatic stress (expressed as a function of changesin the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]), change invegetation greenness (derived from the Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index [NDVI]), and weedy invasives as a percentof total plant cover. The data were integrated over aregional geographic setting using a GIS, which facilitateddata display, development and exploration of data relationships, including manipulation and simulation testing. By combining all five data layers, landscapes having a varying risk for land degradation were identified, providing a tool which could be used to improve landmanagement efficiency.     

The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO₂ Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Integrated Assessment of Swiss GHG Mitigation Policies After 2012

The residential sector presents a great potential for greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation. We perform an integrated assessment of different mitigation policies for Switzerland focusing on the residential sector. We analyze the case of pure incentive taxes and technical regulations. For our analysis, we have coupled a general equilibrium model with a Swiss residential energy model. We find that a progressive GHG tax of more than 200 USD2000/tCO₂ eq is necessary to reach a target of 50% reduction of GHG emissions in 2050. Finally, we also find that efficiency-based technical regulations provide limited additional abatement incentives.     

Integrated Assessment: an emerging methodology for complex issues

Over recent years Integrated Assessment (IA) has been presented as a new and innovative approach to modern decision making. In this paper we explore some of the key features that we consider characterise IA; we present IA as a framework that allows a flexible approach to uncertainty in decision making and to which a broad palette of expertise can contribute. The example of the development of an international agreement to reduce acidic deposition is used to illustrate the current practical status of an IA. The scientific process leading to this agreement has previously been described as IA but we argue that, although it marks a change from traditional approaches, further progress is still required to satisfy the requirements for a successful and durable IA.     

An Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the Interior Columbia Basin

Driven by the need to replace interim direction, address recent species listings as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act, and break the gridlock of implementing actions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (FS) and the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (BLM), initiated an effort to develop a scientifically-sound, ecosystem-based strategy for lands they administer in the Interior Columbia Basin. The effort included an integrated assessment of 58.3 million ha in seven states describing the Basin's current conditions and risks associated with different management strategies. The assessment provides the foundation for environmental impact statements outlining management direction for 31 million hectares of FS and BLM administered lands. The process produced a framework for ecosystem management, ecosystem component (social, economic, landscape, terrestrial, and aquatic) assessments, and estimates of ecological integrity and socioeconomic resiliency.     

Improving Efficiency Of Uncertainty Analysis In Complex Integrated Assessment Models: The Case Of The Rains Emission Module

Abstact Ever since the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation Model (RAINS) has been constructed, the treatment of uncertainty has remained an issue of major interest. In a recent review of the model performed for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, a more systematic and structured uncertainty analysis has been recommended. This paper aims at contributing to the scientific debate how this can be achieved. Because of its complex structure on the one hand and limited research resources (time, computational capacities) on the other hand a full-blown uncertainty analysis in RAINS is hardly feasible. Therefore, all types of uncertainty require more efficient ways for uncertainty analysis. With respect to parameter uncertainty, we propose to focus research efforts for uncertainty analysis on key parameters. Among different approaches to select key parameters that have been discussed in the literature screening methods seem to be particularly appropriate for complex, deterministic Integrated Assessment models such as RAINS. Surprisingly, in Integrated Assessment modelling for air pollution problems of screening design have not been taken up so far. As a case study we consider the emission module of RAINS. We show that its structure allows for a straightforward and effective screening procedure