Linking carbon sequestration science with local sustainability: an integrated assessment approach

This paper introduces an integrated assessment (IA) approach for a Canada-China joint research project that linked forest carbon sequestration, forest resource management, and local sustainability enhancement. The purpose of the IA was to improve the measurement of carbon in different land uses and vegetation covers, as well as to direct decision makers to those land uses or options as an CO₂ emission reduction strategy while supporting rural sustainable development. In this connection, three questions are addressed in this paper:

1)

How will forestry carbon sequestration land use policies affect regional sustainability prospects in rural China?     

Social and economic impacts of carbon sequestration and land use change on peasant households in rural China: a case study of Liping, Guizhou Province

Numerous innovative approaches to mitigate effects of excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global climate change are being proposed and formulated. Sequestering carbon to terrestrial ecosystems represents one of the important clean development mechanisms. Reforestation through converting various non-forest lands to forests is undoubtedly an important dimension of carbon sequestration. Using Liping County in Guizhou Province as a case region, this study examines the perceived change in social and economic livelihoods of peasants and the factors responsible for the variations in the changes. The results of the study reveal that socio-economic changes associated with the government-financed project are multifaceted and profound. Because of the financial subsidies provided by the central government, this environmental action in many aspects can be regarded as a poverty reduction measure in the underdeveloped area where rural poverty is widespread. A majority of peasant households have benefited from project participation. The land conversion project with continued financial support also contributes to the social transformations of traditional rural society in remote areas to a more mobile, less subsistence agriculture-based, and open society.     

Evaluation of the economic and environmental impact of converting cropland to forest: a case study in Dunhua county, China

The Sloping Land Conversion Program (also known as "Grain for Green" or the Upland Conversion Program) for converting cropland to forest is one of China's most ambitious environmental initiatives, and is one of the world's largest land-conservation programs with a budget of RMB 337 billion (over US$ 40 billion). Although environmental impacts have played a vital role in the general reasoning and argumentation for forest plantations, environmental impact analyses have often received less attention than economic analyses in the planning of plantation forestry projects. The overall goal of this paper is to evaluate the program's environmental impact considering the farmer's interests and the potential social benefits due to carbon sequestration in different scenarios based on household and field survey data in Dunhua County. Our findings are that: (1) in many cases, the program did not give adequate consideration to land productivity and environmental heterogeneity when selecting plots; (2) more than half of the reforestation plots were on flat cropland (slopes of less than 5 degrees ); (3) in five of the eight townships, net incomes on reforested land were substantially above or below previous crop incomes, raising questions about the efficiency of the allocation of compensation to farmers participating in the program; (4) the potential carbon co-benefit increased the NPV of the program by 5954-7009 RMB/ha. In conclusion, we recommend that more attention should be paid to the quality of reforestation programs rather than just their scale and note that consideration of potential carbon sequestration co-benefits enhances the benefits of cropland conversion programs.     

Enhancing forest carbon sequestration in China: toward an integration of scientific and socio-economic perspectives

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue, "China's Forest Carbon Sequestration", representing major results of a project sponsored by the Canadian International Development Agency and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. China occupies a pivotal position globally as a principle emitter of carbon dioxide, as host to some of the world's largest reforestation efforts, and as a key player in international negotiations aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emission. The goals of this project are to develop remote sensing approaches for quantifying forest carbon balance in China in a transparent manner, and information and tools to support land-use decisions for enhanced carbon sequestration (CS) that are science based and economically and socially viable. The project consists of three components: (i) remote sensing and carbon modeling, (ii) forest and soil assessment, and (iii) integrated assessment of the socio-economic implications of CS via forest management. Articles included in this special issue are highlights of the results of each of these components.     

Assessing the potential of native tree species for carbon sequestration forestry in Northeast China

Although the native forests of China are exceptionally diverse, only a small number of tree species have been widely utilized in forest plantations and reforestation efforts. We used dendrochronological sampling methods to assess the potential growth and carbon sequestration of native tree species in Jilin Province, Northeast China. Trees were sampled in and near the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve, with samples encompassing old-growth, disturbed forest, and plantations. To approximate conditions for planted trees, sampling focused on trees with exposed crowns (dominant and co-dominant individuals). A log-linear relationship was found between diameter increment and tree diameter, with a linear decrease in increment with increasing local basal area; no significant differences in these patterns between plantations and natural stands were detected for two commonly planted species (Pinus koraiensis and Larix olgensis). A growth model that incorporates observed feedbacks with individual tree size and local basal area (in conjunction with allometric models for tree biomass), was used to project stand-level biomass increment. Predicted growth trajectories were then linked to the carbon process model InTEC to provide estimates of carbon sequestration potential. Results indicate substantial differences among species, and suggest that certain native hardwoods (in particular Fraxinus mandshurica and Phellodendron amurense), have high potential for use in carbon forestry applications. Increased use of native hardwoods in carbon forestry in China is likely to have additional benefits in terms of economic diversification and enhanced provision of "ecosystem services", including biodiversity protection.     

An approach to integrated ecological assessment of resource condition: the Mid-Atlantic estuaries as a case study

The complex and interconnected nature of ecological systems often makes it difficult to understand and prevent multiresource, multistressor problems. This article describes a process to assess ecological condition at regional scales. The article also describes how the approach was applied to the Mid-Atlantic estuaries, where it focused on characterizing the current state of the environment rather than on predicting future effects from humans. The necessity for iteration during the exercise showed how important it was to identify the purpose of the assessment and its users, that appropriate, consistent data are lacking for large-scale assessments, and that it remains a challenge to communicate succinctly the results of such an assessment.     

Social, economic, and ecological impacts of the "Grain for Green" project in China: a preliminary case in Zhangye, Northwest China

This paper provides applications of the integrated assessment (IA) approach in a case study in the Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. Some socio-economic and ecological impact results of forestry land use scenarios are presented in the paper. While seven types of land use scenarios for carbon sequestration purposes were considered for the IA applications, this paper mainly presents impacts of land use scenarios within the Grain for Green (GFG) category [see Yin et al., this volume]. China's national Grain for Green Project was implemented in order to protect and improve ecosystems, while allowing an evolution of agricultural management practices compatible with raising peasants' incomes. Zhangye Prefecture, located in the Heihe River Basin of an arid area in Northwest China, was chosen as the investigation site of the IA case study. Based on fundamental orientation theory, the social sustainability impacts of GFG land use options were assessed. Between 2002 and 2004, the GFG project brought US$23.56 million yuan in net income to the prefecture's peasants. Project implementation resulted in a 1.71 Gg increase in net primary productivity (NPP), as well as a 44.36 Gg rise in net ecosystem productivity (NEP). This suggested that, in Zhangye Prefecture, the Grain for Green Project could enhance the sustainability and stability of the local society, increase peasants' net income, as well as protect and remediate local ecosystems.     

Selecting small reserves in a human-dominated landscape: a case study of Hong Kong, China

In this case study of a degraded tropical landscape, we examine how the protected area system in Hong Kong, China, should be modified to improve its efficiency in protecting the surprisingly rich biota. The challenge lies in the fine scale of site selection, and the absence of a core area with high species richness and rarity. Site selection was first conducted in 1 km grid units by selecting hotspots and irreplaceable sites using field records for eight groups of species (amphibians, reptiles, mammals, breeding birds, ants, butterflies, dragonflies and rare vascular plants). The habitats of conservation value within the selected grid units were then delineated on the basis of expert knowledge. Recommendations for increasing the total existing protected area by 6% (i.e. an additional 2% of Hong Kong's total land area) were submitted to the Government in August 2000. To test the robustness of the results, site selection was repeated in 2001 using updated data and different selection methods. The numbers of squares selected by complementarity-based algorithms were similar to those by the hotspots and irreplaceable site method. Sites selected for rare species were very sensitive to data completeness, implying that the application of complementarity-based algorithms at fine scales might be limited.     

Wind energy technology development and diffusion: a case study of Inner Mongolia, China

This article reviews the spread of small household wind generators and the development of wind farms in Inner Mongolia, China with emphasis on policy and institutional perspectives. It analyzes the patterns of wind technology dissemination within social, economic, and environmental contexts. It also discusses international investment and technology transfer relating to wind energy technology. The economics of windfarm development are examined and the role of alternative policy instruments analyzed. Major constraints to wind technology development are identified and relevant policy recommendations suggested.     

Risk assessment for atmospheric environmental management: a case study in the Hunter Region of New South Wales,Australia

The theoretical framework of a risk assessment scheme is applied to air quality assessment in a developing region in Australia, the Hunter Valley in the state of New South Wales. It is found that the application of such a scheme high-lights a number of inadequacies in the air quality management. New modeling methodologies are found to be necessary to assess some air quality impacts, as existing knowledge is inadequate. The importance of extensive data bases is underlined as is the need for social surveys to supplement air pollution monitoring when gauging aesthetic effects of air pollutants.A visiting fellow on leave from the School of Australian Environmental Studies, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.     

An economic and environmental assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) power plants: a case study for the City of Kiel

In the not too distant future several power plants throughout Europe will have to be replaced and the decision has to be made whether to build coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). In a study for the city of Kiel in northern Germany only an 800 MW coal power plant reaches a required minimum for rentability. This study looks at an additional economic and environmental evaluation of a coal plant with CCS. We find that in two out of three carbon and energy price scenarios integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with CCS have the greatest rentability. Pulverised coal (PC) plants with CCS can only compete with other options under very favourable assumptions. Life-cycle emissions from CCS are less than 70% of a coal plant – compared with at least more than 80% when only considering direct emissions from plants. However, life-cycle emissions are lower than in any other assessed option.     

The comparison of a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods in environmental impact assessment,a case study: The construction of Al‐A'amiriya residential complex,Baghdad, Iraq

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an efficient method to recognize and alleviate the unfavorable and inevitable impacts of human activity on the environment. The EIA is dependent on expert opinions, which can be influenced by personal experience and knowledge. To evaluate this influence, we carried out EIA of 6,000 residential apartment units of Al‐A'amiriya, Baghdad, Iraq, using a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. The matrix results reflected the direct opinions of experts. The fuzzy method was developed according to the principles of expert comments. In the matrix method, the environmental impacts of each activity were evaluated by scores between −5 (very bad) to 5 (very good). The inputs to the fuzzy method were intensity and weather stability. The fuzzy estimation of the environmental impact was composed of a group of three values; P1 as the intensity, P2 as the extent, and P3 as the persistence. We gathered the expert opinions and used the Analytical Hierarchical Process to determine the weighting coefficient of each fuzzy anticipation. The matrix method was dependent on the expert opinions. The mean values of the matrix and P‐values in each column and row scores depict the impacts of a project on the environmental aspects and each element of construction on the environment. The comparison of the results indicated an average difference of 30% between the Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. In regard to the availability and sufficiency of data, the difference was around 10%.     

Environmental,economic and social costs and benefits of a packaging waste management system: A Portuguese case study

The impact of the management of packaging waste on the environment, economic growth and job creation is analyzed in this paper. This integrated assessment intends to cover a gap in the literature for this type of studies, using the specific case study of the Portuguese packaging waste management system (SIGRE).The net environmental benefits associated with the management of packaging waste, are calculated using the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The results show that, for the categories studied, the impacts associated to SIGRE's various activities are surpassed by the benefits associated to material and energy recovery, with special focus on recycling. For example, in 2011 SIGRE avoided the emission of 116 kt CO₂ equiv. – the equivalent carbon emission of the electricity consumption of 124.000 households in Portugal.The economic impact of SIGRE is evaluated through Input–Output Analysis. It was found that SIGRE's activities also have a significant economic impact. For example, their added value are ranked amongst the upper third of the economic activities with highest multiplier effect at national level: this means that for each Euro of value added generated within SIGRE, 1.25 additional € are added to the rest of the economy (multiplier effect of 2.25).Regarding the social impacts of SIGRE, the number of direct jobs associated with the system is estimated to be more than two thousand and three hundred workers. Out of these, 83% are connected to the management of municipal waste packaging (selective collection and sorting), 15% are connected to the management of non-municipal packaging waste and only 2% are connected to the Sociedade Ponto Verde (SPV, green dot society in English) – the management entity responsible for SIGRE.In general terms, the results obtained provide quantitative support to the EEA (2011) suggestion that moving up the waste hierarchy – from landfilling to recycling – creates jobs and boosts the economy.     

A methodology of characterizing status and trend of land changes in oases: a case study of Sangong River watershed, Xinjiang, China

Land change is often studied with Markov models to develop a probability transition matrix. The existing methods dependent on such matrixes cannot effectively characterize some important aspects associated with land change such as status, direction, trend and regional variations. This study presents mathematical models to quantify these elements, defining unbalanced, quasi-balanced and balanced status, one- and two-way transitions and the rising or falling trends. Using these models and remote-sensing imageries, the landscape was studied for a case area, the oasis of Sangong River in Xinjiang, Northwest China where typical arid conditions prevail. Land expansion and contraction among various land types and for the entire oasis were analyzed for the periods of 1978-1987, 1978-1998 and 1987-1998. The changes were closely related to a strong economic growth after the land-reform campaign and adoption of the market economy in China in the 1980s to early 1990s, a process not strictly Markovian that requires stationarity and randomness. Information on land-change status and trend is important for a better understanding of the underlying driving processes but also for land-use planning and decision-making.