定量风险评价（QRA）中的危险辨识方法

危险辨识是进行定量风险评价（QRA）的关键步骤,QRA分析区域内的危险设备设施可能很多,但并不是每台设备设施都一定要包含并进行定量风险计算,这不仅涉及到QRA的效率和成本问题,也涉及到评价结论准确性、安全投入有效性等问题。本文简要介绍并比较了欧盟ARAMIS和挪威Purple book中推介的2种危险辨识方法,有助于国内QRA分析人员参照比较及提升QRA分析的一致性。     

低概率重大事故风险与定量风险评价

论述应用定量风险评价(QRA)对评价、控制低概率重大事故风险的重要意义.介绍了低概率重大风险范畴与主要来源,QRA技术的主要用途与基本方法,研发与使用QRA计算重大风险的主要技术程序.提出了在应用QRA评价重大风险时应注意的几个主要技术问题.     

成品油站场工艺管道风险辨识与评价

为保障成品油站场工艺管道的安全平稳运行,在充分辨识风险因素的前提下,提出了一种基于KENT法和RBI的风险评价方法。首先,以风险机理分析为基础,采用SHEL模型从导致风险上升的直接原因（风险内因）和间接原因（风险外因）2个角度辨识了风险因素,并细化各因素指标项;然后借鉴KENT法,对各指标项进行评分量化;依据RBI法,采用风险外因体系修正风险内因体系的方式确定失效可能性;综合环境后果、人员后果与商业后果,明确失效后果的评价体系与计算方法;最后,结合失效可能性与失效后果进行风险评价,从风险等级和风险排序2方面为检维修决策提供依据。应用表明:该评价方法便于工艺管道风险评价的基层实施,可为基于风险的检维修决策提供有效技术支撑。     

天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价技术研究

为研究天然气长输管道失效个人生命风险,提出一种以人员伤亡概率为指标的天然气管道失效后果风险评价方法。基于天然气管道的失效概率和失效致死长度参数,建立天然气长输管道生命风险评价模型。用该模型,对国内某城市住宅小区内带腐蚀缺陷的天然气管线进行定量风险分析。借鉴英国天然气输送公司数据,确定天然气管线个人生命风险值。案例证明,用所建立的天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价模型能够有效地分析带缺陷天然气管道失效后果,实现天然气管道的个人安全生命风险全定量评价。     

基于风险的城市埋地燃气管道安全评价模型及应用

城市埋地燃气管道一旦失效会产生泄漏,甚至引发火灾爆炸等事故,造成人员伤亡和财产损失等严重后果,影响社会稳定,因此其安全运行十分重要。由于城市地下环境的复杂性,使得埋地燃气管道失效的因素多种多样,且具有模糊性;由于城市地面状况各异,所以构成失效后果的因素也具有不确定性。文章以某市在役燃气管道为例,使用模糊数学语言表达了埋地燃气管道的失效可能性和失效后果,采用模糊综合评价模型对燃气管道的失效可能性和失效后果进行了评价,并以美国石油协会(API)风险矩阵表征了埋地燃气管道的风险等级,得到不同管道单元的风险级别和管道单元数,根据不同的风险等级采取不同的策略或措施,完善管道的完整性管理,降低管道的使用风险,确保城市燃气管网的正常安全运行。     

城市天然气管道半定量风险评估方法研究

以实现天然气管道风险评估资源的合理分配，确定天然气管道定量风险评估的重点为目标，改进燃气管道风险评估方法的肯特模型，探求城市天然气管道的半定量风险评估方法；分析了城市埋地天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的影响因子，并研究其评分标准；分别给出了城市天然气管道失效可能性与失效后果的等级划分标准，并运用半定量风险矩阵进行燃气管道单元的风险初步排序，以确定高风险管道单元；对城市天然气管道进行半定量风险评估，可为识别管道沿线高风险后果区域、风险动态排序、风险预警及制定事故应急预案等提供科学依据和方法指导，具有重要的工程应用价值。     

基于风险的检验技术在苯加氢装置管道的应用

简述基于风险的压力管道检验技术基本理念,讨论压力管道的危害风险和失效模式,介绍了风险评估方法及其适用场合、风险评估程序。对某苯加氢装置的管道系统进行风险检验评价,对该管道的各种危险因素进行分析,并对其基础数据和检验检测结果进行了研究和探讨,近而采用5×5风险矩阵法和定性分析,对苯加氢装置管道系统进行风险评估,根据该评估结论,提出了科学制定检修计划的建议和控制风险措施。研究结果表明:基于风险的检验技术,既能节约大量的停机和检验维修费用,又能有效地提高重点设备的安全性和管理水平。     

城镇燃气管道第三方施工损伤风险评价方法研究

针对第三方施工对城镇燃气管道的不利影响,提出一种半定量风险评价方法。首先,基于“人—机—环境—管理”系统确定失效因素,利用G2赋权法对因素赋权,并引入物元模型分析失效可能性;然后,建立喷射火焰、闪火和蒸气云爆炸的数学模型计算管道泄漏的伤害面积,确定失效后果等级;最后,根据API 581中的风险矩阵得出燃气管道第三方施工破坏风险等级。实例分析表明,该方法兼具定性评价与定量评价的优点,能更加准确有效地进行风险分析,确定风险等级。     

城市燃气铸铁管道的风险辨识与评价模型

对城市燃气管道在运行过程中的风险因素进行了辨识,讨论了铸铁管道风险的特殊性。根据故障树分析法、层次分析法与专家调查法对风险因素进行分析评判,建立了城市燃气铸铁管道风险评价的失效可能性模型。     

老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法

为揭示老龄城镇油气管道失效诱因相互影响关系,评估管道综合风险,提出一种基于模糊决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法的老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法。首先通过系统识别失效诱因,建立老龄城镇油气管道风险评价指标体系;然后基于模糊DEMATEL方法确定管道失效诱因关联路径,分析失效风险间的相互作用关系;最后结合风险评价指标初始状态信息和权重,确定老龄城镇油气管道的综合风险值,并据此提出相应的管控措施。研究表明:该方法能够识别老龄城镇油气管道失效诱因之间的复杂影响关系;公众教育的缺失是造成管道事故的主要风险诱因,完善管道裂纹检测,加强腐蚀防控,可有效降低老龄城镇油气管道的潜在运行风险。     

Quantitative risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems

This paper presents a novel quantitative risk analysis process for urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems (GIS). The process incorporates an assessment of failure rates of integrated pipeline networks, a quantitative analysis model of accident consequences, and assessments of individual and societal risks. Firstly, the failure rates of the pipeline network are calculated using empirical formulas influenced by parameters such as external interference, corrosion, construction defects, and ground movements. Secondly, the impacts of accidents due to gas leakage, diffusion, fires, and explosions are analyzed by calculating the area influenced by poisoning, burns, and deaths. Lastly, based on the previous analyses, individual risks and social risks are calculated. The application of GIS technology helps strengthen the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) model and allows construction of a QRA system for urban gas pipeline networks that can aid pipeline management staff in demarcating high risk areas requiring more frequent inspections.     

定量风险评价技术在管道城市穿越段的应用

介绍了管道高后果区定量风险评价的方法和风险可接收标准.将定量风险评价技术在我国某长输原油管道城市穿越段的应用表明,定量风险评价方法适用于人口密集的管道高后果区,能对管道高后果区的风险管理、决策提供重要的参考.     

Integrated dynamic risk assessment of buried gas pipeline leakages in urban areas

In urban areas, buried gas pipeline leakages could potentially cause numerous casualties and massive damage. Traditional static analysis and dynamic probability-based quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods have been widely used in various industries. However, dynamic QRA methods combined with probability and consequence are rarely used to evaluate gas pipelines buried in urban areas. Therefore, an integrated dynamic risk assessment approach was proposed. First, a failure rate calculation of buried gas pipelines was performed, where the corrosion failure rate dependent on time was calculated by integrating the subset simulation method. The relationship between failure probability and failure rate was considered, and a mechanical analysis model considering the corrosion growth model and multiple loads was used. The time-independent failure rates were calculated by the modification factor methods. Next, the overall evolution process from pipeline failures to accidents was proposed, with the accident rates subsequently updated. Then, the consequences of buried gas pipeline accidents corresponding to the accident types in the evolution process were modeled and analyzed. Finally, based on the above research, dynamic calculation and assessment methods for evaluating individual and social risks were established, and an overall application example was provided to demonstrate the capacity of the proposed approach. A reliable and practical theoretical basis and supporting information are provided for the integrity and emergency management of buried gas pipelines in urban areas, considering actual operational conditions.     

基于RBI的碳五石油树脂装置风险评估分析

从技术特点、实施效用等方面,对QRA与RBI两类风险评估技术进行比较,选择使用RBI技术方法对碳五石油树脂装置内静设备及管道实施风险评估。运用挪威船级社的ORBIT Onshore软件定量计算评估范围内设备、管道风险值,评定风险等级,辨识隐患设备,然后从后果、可能性两方面分析产生风险的主要影响因素,经分析得知碳五石油树脂装置受H2S、HCl腐蚀减薄影响轻微,但NaOH导致的碱应力腐蚀对聚合反应后序工段中部分管道设备失效可能性影响较大。最后根据装置内存在的不同损伤机理提出检验优化策略,为装置定期检验工作提供科学的决策支持。     

城市天然气管网预警系统的研究与实现

随着城市天然气管网密度加大,由于天然气管理手段滞后导致的天然气泄漏事故急剧增加。基于GIS技术并结合燃气管网定量风险分析(QRA)模型,提出利用定量风险分析模型实现管网风险预警的方法。结合C#+ArcEngine编程技术,开发城市天然气管网预警系统,实现管网失效率分析、燃气事故扩散模拟、火灾及爆炸模拟、个人风险等值线绘制、社会风险分析等功能,能够进行区域性事故后果预测、个人风险和社会风险计算、安全性评价及应急预案编制等项工作。     

Quantitative risk assessment integrated with dynamic process simulation for reactor section in heavy oil desulfurization process

A new methodology for quantitative risk assessment (QRA) integrated with dynamic simulation and accident simulation is proposed. The objective of this study is to discover inherent risks that are undetectable by conventional risk analysis methods based on steady-state conditions. The target process is the reactor section in the heavy oil desulfurization (HOD) process, which is likely to pose vast potential risks due to the high operating conditions of pressure and temperature. First, a dynamic simulation of a shut-down procedure was performed to observe the behavior of process variables using Aspen HYSYS V10, which is a commercially available process software. Based on the results of the dynamic simulation, several blind spots indicating a higher operating pressure than that in the steady-state simulation were identified. To assess the risks of the detected blind spots, a QRA was performed using the commercial software of SAFETI V8.22, which performs risk calculation based on consequence and frequency data. As a result of applying the proposed method to the HOD process, the risk assessment outcome was identified as intolerably risky unlike that of steady-state conditions, thereby indicating that dynamic simulations can serve as a method to spot inherent risks that are undetectable in steady-state conditions. In addition, mitigation procedures that reduce the risk of the process to a tolerable level are performed, thereby enabling a safer and more reliable process.     

Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

盐穴地下储气库事故统计及风险分析

借鉴输气管道和二氧化碳地下封存设施的风险评价方法,结合盐穴地下储气库的事故统计分析,对储气库系统中的潜在风险因素进行12大类、35小类的初步分类,并归纳总结了盐穴地下储气库的3种主要事故类型。采用事故树分析的风险评价方法,对13种主要风险因素进行风险识别。在此基础上,提出定量风险评价的重要工程模型,其包括气体水合物模型、盐穴稳定性评价模型以及气体泄漏模型。该风险分析方法和工程模型有助于定量评价盐穴地下储气库的主要风险因素,为储库的安全稳定运行提供了科学依据。     

城镇燃气管道动火作业安全评价

针对城镇燃气管道动火作业的高危险性,为保障生命财产安全,提出一种基于未确知测度的安全评价方法。首先,从动火施工作业的前、中、后3个阶段对整个作业过程进行安全分析,并基于作业的前阶段建立安全评价体系。然后,引入未确知测度模型,将因素的量化值与测度函数结合得出测度评价矩阵,采用变异系数法处理评价矩阵,确定各危害因素的客观权重。最后,根据测度评价矩阵与因素权重得出动火作业的安全等级,并对危害因素进行排序。实例结果表明:应用该方法能有效地确定出城镇燃气管道动火作业的安全等级,对于不安全的施工作业,可根据排序确定高危险因素,并采取措施降低其危险性,提高整个动火作业过程的安全性。