The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

System dynamic modeling of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040

Transportation sector is the second largest producer of greenhouse gas in Malaysia next to energy sector. It contributes to nearly 28 % of annual national carbon emissions due to its heavy dependency of hydrocarbons such as gasoline. If not properly managed, carbon dioxide emissions per capita are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Lack of interdisciplinary study on this sector has caused proper mitigation initiatives to be delayed, compounding the damage to the ecosystem. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic probabilistic model to determine emissions and pollutants of transportation system in Malaysia using Analytica software, with focus on passenger cars for its large number over other vehicle classes. Several vehicle fleet management policies based on several key governmental, industrial and stakeholder’s intervention have been constructed and analyzed for a period of 25 years. This analysis found that greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants in 2040 can be reduced by up to 80 %, compared to emissions of 2020, without any adverse effect on vehicle demand nor the economy. However, without proper intervention, personal transportation system in Malaysia will generate nearly 80,000 kilotons of greenhouse gas annually by the year 2040.     

A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles

As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health.     

Microalgae‐based biodiesel production in open raceway ponds using coal thermal flue gas: A case of West Bengal,India

India is one of the most populous countries and is the third largest greenhouse gas–emitting nation. Energy security is a serious issue for India as it relies heavily on fossil fuel imports. Biodiesel production using microalgae as feedstock can address both of these issues. In this study, the technical feasibility of microalgae‐based biodiesel production is carried out for a coal thermal power plant (i.e., Budge Budge Thermal Station) in the state of West Bengal, India, using a generic methodology. An oleaginous microalgae species that is tolerant toward flue gas was identified (i.e., Nannochloropsis sp). A 75‐acre open raceway microalgae production plant was designed keeping the costs, energy demand, and CO₂ emissions low. The open raceway pond can use 38 tons of CO₂, produce 19 tons of algal biomass, and treat 9320 m³ of wastewater per acre annually.     

The environmental life cycle assessment of agricultural sector in Thailand: EIO‐LCA approach

Agriculture is one of the major sectors in Thailand, with more than half of the population employed in agriculture‐related occupations. This study evaluated energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Thai agricultural sector by applying the economic input–output life cycle assessment (EIO‐LCA) approach. The model evaluates the entire agricultural sector supply chain. Based on one million Thai baht (approximately $27,800 U.S. dollars) final demand of the rice paddy sector, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the electricity sector are responsible for 27% (1,246 kilograms [kg] CO₂) of the total CO₂ emissions, whereas the emissions from paddy activities associated with the fertilizers and pesticides sector account for 16% (760 kg CO₂) and 11% (513 kg CO₂), respectively. The top three largest GHG emissions from the total agricultural sector supply chain are associated with the oil palm, the coffee and tea, and the fruit sectors. The government should promote and encourage sustainable agriculture by reducing the use of fertilizers and pesticides and by utilizing energy‐saving technologies.     

The energy,water, and air pollution implications of tapping China's shale gas reserves

China has laid out an ambitious strategy for developing its vast shale gas reserves. This study developed an input–output based hybrid life-cycle inventory model to estimate the energy use, water consumption, and air emissions implications of shale gas infrastructure development in China over the period 2013–2020, including well drilling and operation, land rig and fracturing fleet manufacture, and pipeline construction. Multiple scenarios were analyzed based on different combinations of well development rates, well productivities, and success rates. Results suggest that 700–5100 petajoules (PJ) of primary energy will be required for shale gas infrastructure development, while the net primary energy yield of shale gas production over 2013–2020 was estimated at 1650–7150 PJ, suggesting a favorable energy balance. Associated emissions of CO₂e were estimated at 80–580 million metric tons, and were primarily attributable to coal-fired electricity generation, fugitive methane, and flaring of methane during shale gas processing and transmission. Direct water consumption was estimated at 20–720 million metric tons. The largest sources of energy use and emissions for infrastructure development were the metals, mining, non-metal mineral products, and power sectors, which should be the focus of energy efficiency initiatives to reduce the impacts of shale gas infrastructure development moving forward.     

The Climate Value of Cycling

The reduction of CO₂ emissions constitutes one of the largest challenges of the current era. Sustainable transportation, and especially cycling, can contribute to the mitigation of CO₂ emissions since cycling possesses an intrinsic zero‐emission value. Few studies have been conducted that appraise the CO₂ reduction potential of cycling. Opportunity costs enable the estimation of avoided CO₂ emissions resulting from bicycle trips. The methodology developed in this research allows the attribution of a climate value to cycling by substituting bicycle trips with their most likely alternative transportation modes and calculating the resulting additional CO₂ emissions. The methodology uses data on the current modal shares of cycling mobility, the competition of cycling with other transportation modes, and CO₂ emission factors to calculate the climate value of cycling. When it is assumed that the avoided CO₂ emissions of cycling mobility could be traded on financial carbon markets, the climate value of cycling represents a monetary value. Application of the methodology to the case of Bogotá, Colombia — a city with a current bicycle modal share of 3.3% on a total of 10 million daily trips — results in a climate value of cycling of 55,115 tons of CO₂ per year, corresponding to an economic value of between 1 and 7 million US dollars when traded on the carbon market.     

A disaggregated emissions inventory for Taiwan with uses in hybrid input‐output life cycle analysis (IO‐LCA)

This paper reports on a life‐cycle analysis (LCA) of Taiwan's “agriculture and forestry”, “crude petroleum, coal and natural gas extraction” and “electricity generation” sectors, revealing for the first time Taiwan's CO₂ and CH₄ emissions inventories and matching Taiwan's input‐output sectors. Integrated hybrid input‐output life cycle analysis is used to disaggregate the electricity generation sector into nuclear, hydro, gas, oil and coal, and cogeneration. Results show that the fossil‐fuel‐related electricity sub‐sectors have higher CO₂ emissions intensity than the remaining sectors in the economy and that the “paddy rice” sector is Taiwan's most CH₄‐intensive sector, making rice cultivation an important source of CH₄ emissions. This work is vital to sound policy decisions concerning power generation, coal, and agriculture and forestry at the national level.     

Cars and fuels for tomorrow: a comparative assessment

Light duty vehicles, i.e. passenger cars and light trucks, account for approximately half of global transportation energy demand and, thus, a major share of carbon dioxide and other emissions from the transport sector. Energy consumption in the transport sector is expected to grow in the future, especially in developing countries. Cars with alternative powertrains to internal combustion engines (notably battery, hybrid and fuel-cell powertrains), in combination with potentially low carbon electricity or alternative fuels (notably hydrogen and methanol), can reduce energy demand by at least 50%, and carbon dioxide and regulated emissions much further. This article presents a comparative technical and economic assessment of promising future fuel/vehicle combinations. There are several promising technologies but no obvious winners. However, the electric drivetrain is a common denominator in the alternative powertrains and continued cost reductions are important for widespread deployment in future vehicles. Development paths from current fossil fuel based systems to future carbon-neutral supply systems appear to be flexible and a gradual phasing-in of new powertrains and carbon-neutral fluid fuels or electricity is technically possible. Technology development drivers and vehicle manufacturers are found mainly in industrialised countries, but developing countries represent a growing market and may have an increasingly important role in shaping the future.     

Energy consumption and carbon emission for tourism transport in World Heritage Sites: a case of the Wulingyuan area in China

Transport profoundly affects energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the tourism sector. The Wulingyuan Scenic Area (WSA), a natural heritage destination in China, is chosen for the case study. The energy consumption and carbon emission of 10 types of tourism transportation modes at the destination are measured and analyzed using a bottom‐up approach for the period of 1979 to 2010. Scenarios were created to project the effects of single and multiple factors on energy consumption and carbon emission by tourism transportation during 2011‐2020. The results showed the following: (a) there is a large difference in energy consumption and carbon emission per capita and per kilometer per capita among the 10 vehicle modes; (b) the monthly energy consumption and carbon emission of tourism transportation differed significantly, the month with the highest (October) are respectively 6.8 and 4 times that of the lowest month (January); (c) the highest annual growth rate of energy consumption and carbon emission are respectively as 32.16% and 27.98% during 1979‐2010; and (d) the amount of energy consumption and carbon emission in the multiple factor scenarios are lower than that in the reference and single factor scenarios during 2011‐2020.     

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

城市电动汽车规模化发展的大气环境影响研究

发展电动汽车被认为是有效缓解城市交通污染的重要措施,但大规模的电动汽车发展不仅有增加电力部门排放的风险,而且可能影响电网运营的稳定性。本研究以南京市为例,综合应用充电行为模式调研、蒙特卡洛模拟、COPERT模型、排放因子法等方法,系统研究了私家车、出租车和公交车三种类型电动汽车的充电特征及其对区域交通和电力部门排放的影响。结果表明,当三种车型的电动化率分别达到50%、100%和100%时,城市的NOx、PM_(2.5)、CO、VOCs和CO_2排放量将分别比基准情景减少378t、305t、20 223t、3649t和480万t。但是,SO_2排放增加了1152t,并且导致南京市电网的夏季峰值负荷增加10%。为更好地改善中国城市环境空气质量,应综合考虑电动汽车有序充电、协同促进清洁电力等发展策略,最大限度地实现电动汽车的环境效益。     

对燃油征税的区域能源环境影响研究:以中国为例

控制汽柴油消费对中国的能源安全和环境保护有着重要意义.燃油税和碳税是中国近期两种主要的已经或可能施加于燃油的税收政策.以自回归分布滞后模型为核心,本研究构建了一个燃油税和碳税的区域能源环境影响评估模型.利用模型估计了我国的燃油需求价格弹性,测算了燃油需求响应,计算了在相同CO2减排目标下,提高汽油消费税、提高柴油消费税、引入碳税三种政策情景下各省份预计产生的节能效应、减排效应和税收效益.研究结果显示,在相同的CO2减排目标下,第一,在不同情景下,各省份节能程度差异均有限,但节能数量均体现出区域匹配性,燃油消费越多的省份,节能数量一般越多,且提高汽油消费税的全国节能总量最大;第二,在引入碳税情景下,各省份CO2减排比例差异最小;第三,在全国层面,三种政策情景中空气污染物(PM2.5和NOx和SO2)减排数量均为提高汽油消费税>引入碳税>提高柴油消费税,但在提高柴油消费税情景下,有4/5的省份预计PM2.5排放减少程度超过14%.除此之外,提高汽油消费税的税收收益最大.     

Sizing and performance analysis of standalone hybrid photovoltaic/battery/hydrogen storage technology power generation systems based on the energy hub concept

In this study, the optimal sizing and performance analysis of a standalone integrated solar power system equipped with different storage scenarios to supply the power demand of a household is presented. One of the main purposes when applying solar energy resource is to face the increasing environmental pollutions resulting from fossil fuel based electricity sector. To this end, and to compare and examine two energy storage technologies (battery and hydrogen storage technology), three storage scenarios including battery only, hydrogen storage technology only and hybrid storage options are evaluated. An optimization framework based on Energy Hub concept is used to determine the optimum sizes of equipment for the lowest net present cost (NPC) while maintaining the system reliability. It was determined that the most cost effective and reliable case is the system with hybrid storage technology. Also, the effects of solar radiation intensity, the abatement potential of CO₂ emissions and converting excess power to hydrogen on the system’s performance and economics, were investigated and a few noticeable findings were obtained.     

A concept for simultaneous wasteland reclamation, fuel production, and socio-economic development in degraded areas in India: Need, potential and perspectives of Jatropha plantations

The concept of substituting bio‐diesel produced from plantations on eroded soils for conventional diesel fuel has gained wide‐spread attention in India. In recent months, the Indian central Government as well as some state governments have expressed their support for bringing marginal lands, which cannot be used for food production, under cultivation for this purpose. Jatropha curcas is a well established plant in India. It produces oil‐rich seeds, is known to thrive on eroded lands, and to require only limited amounts of water, nutrients and capital inputs. This plant offers the option both to cultivate wastelands and to produce vegetable oil suitable for conversion to bio‐diesel. More versatile than hydrogen and new propulsion systems such as fuel cell technology, bio‐diesel can be used in today's vehicle fleets worldwide and may also offer a viable path to sustainable transportation, i.e., lower greenhouse gas emissions and enhanced mobility, even in remote areas. Mitigation of global warming and the creation of new regional employment opportunities can be important cornerstones of any forward looking transportation system for emerging economies.     

Evaluating the potential of biodiesel (via recycled cooking oil) use in Singapore,an urban city

Singapore has pledged to attain 7–11% Business-As-Usual carbon emissions reduction by 2020. About 19% of CO₂ contribution stemmed from road transport in 2005. Commercial vehicles, which uses mainly diesel, consumed 695 million litres diesel in 2012. An estimated 115,585 tonnes or 127 million litres cooking oils (derived from seeds/fruits) were consumed in 2010, in which the bulk of used cooking oil is re-incorporated into the food preparation process while only a small amount is being recycled into biodiesel or disposed into the sewerage. Nevertheless, the present research reveals that biodiesel derived from spent cooking oil has potential to be a viable fuel supplement. Surveys were carried out involving three market segments – suppliers, processors and end-users – to identify the barriers and obstacles in mass production of biodiesel. A key enabler of biodiesel as a fuel supplement towards a greener environment lies in government mandate/policies in promoting greater biodiesel usage.     

CO2 emissions in calcium carbide industry: An analysis of China's mitigation potential

China's calcium carbide output has dominated the global market for several years, driven by the demand for PVC (polyvinyl chloride), a fundamental polymer material and also the primary downstream product of calcium carbide in China. The fast growth of this energy-intensive industry leads to an inevitable increase in CO₂ emissions. However, there is a large reduction potential with process improvement in this industry which is currently characterized by widespread outdated facilities. In this study, we attempt to assess the reduction potential of CO₂ emissions in China's calcium carbide production, based on the analysis of CO₂ emission patterns and estimation of the emission amount. Three scenarios regarding process improvement are employed to conduct this assessment. The results imply that the cumulative CO₂ abatement in the Current Policy Scenario and in the Strengthened Policy Scenario from 2008 to 2020, compared with the Baseline Scenario, are 89.0 and 107.6 million t, respectively. The specific measures and policy implications to achieve this potential are also discussed in the article.     

Energy and carbon dioxide intensity of Thailand's steel industry and greenhouse gas emission projection toward the year 2050

The purpose of this article is to study the energy and carbon dioxide intensities of Thailand's steel industry and to propose greenhouse gas emission trends from the year 2011 to 2050 under plausible scenarios. The amount of CO₂ emission from iron and steel production was calculated using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines in the boundary of production process (gate to gate). The results showed that energy intensity of semi-finished steel product was 2.84 GJ/t semi-finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.37 tCO_2eq/t semi-finished steel. Energy intensity of steel finishing process was 1.86 GJ/t finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.16 tCO_2eq/t finished steel. Using three plausible scenarios from Thailand's steel industry, S1: without integrated steel plant (baseline scenario), S2: with a traditional integrated BF–BOF route and S3: with an alternative integrated DR-EAF route; the Greenhouse Gas emissions from the year 2011 to 2050 were projected. In 2050, the CO₂ emission from S1 (baseline scenario) was 4.84 million tonnes, S2 was 21.96 million tonnes increasing 4.54 times from baseline scenario. The CO₂ emission from S3 was 7.12 million tonnes increasing 1.47 times from baseline scenario.     

Impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from vehicular activities on the ambient air quality of Lagos mega city

In response to the growing concern about the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from vehicular activities in Lagos mega city and their effect on air quality, PAH emissions were estimated using the emission factors approach. To make these estimates, PAH emission factors were calculated from the profile ratio of four PAHs emitted from vehicle sources obtained from the European Environment Agency's emission inventory guidebook, whereas the total number of registered vehicles based on the type of fuel they use for a period of 10 years was obtained from Lagos State Bureau of Statistics. Vehicle emissions were estimated using a combination of individual emission factors, the total number of vehicles in use based on fuel type, and the average mileage covered. The average highest level of emission of PAHs of 3.542 kilograms (kg) for gasoline‐powered vehicles was obtained in 2013, whereas the average lowest level of emission of 2.679 kg was recorded for diesel‐powered vehicles in 2007. In the same manner, 2013 had highest annual average total emission of 6.384 kg, whereas the lowest annual total PAHs emission of 5.727 kg was recorded in 2007. It is therefore advised that effective control measure should be put in place by regulatory agency to prevent personnel exposure to these hazardous substances.