Selection of Multiple Umbrella Species for Functional and Taxonomic Diversity to Represent Urban Biodiversity

Surrogates, such as umbrella species, are commonly used to reduce the complexity of quantifying biodiversity for conservation purposes. The presence of umbrella species is often indicative of high taxonomic diversity; however, functional diversity is now recognized as an important metric for biodiversity and thus should be considered when choosing umbrella species. We identified umbrella species associated with high taxonomic and functional biodiversity in urban areas in Switzerland. We analyzed 39,752 individuals of 574 animal species from 96 study plots and 1397 presences of 262 plant species from 58 plots. Thirty‐one biodiversity measures of 7 taxonomic groups (plants, spiders, bees, ground beetles, lady bugs, weevils and birds) were included in within‐ and across‐taxa analyses. Sixteen measures were taxonomical (species richness and species diversity), whereas 15 were functional (species traits including mobility, resource use, and reproduction). We used indicator value analysis to identify umbrella species associated with single or multiple biodiversity measures. Many umbrella species were indicators of high biodiversity within their own taxonomic group (from 33.3% in weevils to 93.8% in birds), to a lesser extent they were indicators across taxa. Principal component analysis revealed that umbrella species for multiple measures of biodiversity represented different aspects of biodiversity, especially with respect to measures of taxonomic and functional diversity. Thus, even umbrella species for multiple measures of biodiversity were complementary in the biodiversity aspects they represented. Thus, the choice of umbrella species based solely on taxonomic diversity is questionable and may not represent biodiversity comprehensively. Our results suggest that, depending on conservation priorities, managers should choose multiple and complementary umbrella species to assess the state of biodiversity. Selección de Múltiples Especies Paraguas para la Diversidad Funcional y Taxonómica para Representar la Biodiversidad Urbana     

Human Impacts on Regional Avian Diversity and Abundance

Abstract: Patterns of association between humans and biodiversity typically show positive, negative, or negative quadratic relationships and can be described by 3 hypotheses: biologically rich areas that support high human population densities co‐occur with areas of high biodiversity (productivity); biodiversity decreases monotonically with increasing human activities (ecosystem stress); and biodiversity peaks at intermediate levels of human influence (intermediate disturbance). To test these hypotheses, we compared anthropogenic land cover and housing units, as indices of human influence, with bird species richness and abundance across the Midwestern United States. We modeled richness of native birds with 12 candidate models of land cover and housing to evaluate the empirical evidence. To assess which species were responsible for observed variation in richness, we repeated our model‐selection analysis with relative abundance of each native species as the response and then asked whether natural‐history traits were associated with positive, negative, or mixed responses. Native avian richness was highest where anthropogenic land cover was lowest and housing units were intermediate based on model‐averaged predictions among a confidence set of candidate models. Eighty‐three of 132 species showed some pattern of association with our measures of human influence. Of these species approximately 40% were negatively associated, approximately 6% were positively associated, and approximately 7% showed evidence of an intermediate relationship with human influence measures. Natural‐history traits were not closely related to the direction of the relationship between abundance and human influence. Nevertheless, pooling species that exhibited any relationship with human influence and comparing them with unrelated species indicated they were significantly smaller, nested closer to the ground, had shorter incubation and fledging times, and tended to be altricial. Our results support the ecosystem‐stress hypothesis for the majority of individual species and for overall species diversity when focusing on anthropogenic land cover. Nevertheless, the great variability in housing units across the land‐cover gradient indicates that an intermediate‐disturbance relationship is also supported. Our findings suggest preemptive conservation action should be taken, whereby areas with little anthropogenic land cover are given conservation priority. Nevertheless, conservation action should not be limited to pristine landscapes because our results showed that native avian richness and the relative abundance of many species peaked at intermediate housing densities and levels of anthropogenic land cover.     

Evaluating the Quality of Citizen‐Scientist Data on Pollinator Communities

Abstract: Concerns about pollinator declines have grown in recent years, yet the ability to detect changes in abundance, taxonomic richness, and composition of pollinator communities is hampered severely by the lack of data over space and time. Citizen scientists may be able to extend the spatial and temporal extent of pollinator monitoring programs. We developed a citizen‐science monitoring protocol in which we trained 13 citizen scientists to observe and classify floral visitors at the resolution of orders or super families (e.g., bee, wasp, fly) and at finer resolution within bees (superfamily Apoidea) only. We evaluated the protocol by comparing data collected simultaneously at 17 sites by citizen scientists (observational data set) and by professionals (specimen‐based data set). The sites differed with respect to the presence and age of hedgerows planted to improve habitat quality for pollinators. We found significant, positive correlations among the two data sets for higher level taxonomic composition, honey bee (Apis mellifera) abundance, non‐Apis bee abundance, bee richness, and bee community similarity. Results for both data sets also showed similar trends (or lack thereof) in these metrics among sites differing in the presence and age of hedgerows. Nevertheless, citizen scientists did not observe approximately half of the bee groups collected by professional scientists at the same sites. Thus, the utility of citizen‐science observational data may be restricted to detection of community‐level changes in abundance, richness, or similarity over space and time, and citizen‐science observations may not reliably reflect the abundance or frequency of occurrence of specific pollinator species or groups.     

A Multiscale Network Analysis of Protected‐Area Connectivity for Mammals in the United States

Abstract: Protected areas must be close, or connected, enough to allow for the preservation of large‐scale ecological and evolutionary processes, such as gene flow, migration, and range shifts in response to climate change. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether the network of protected areas in the United States is connected in a way that will preserve biodiversity over large temporal and spatial scales. It is also unclear whether protected‐area networks that function for larger species will function for smaller species. We assessed the connectivity of protected areas in the three largest biomes in the United States. With methods from graph theory—a branch of mathematics that deals with connectivity and flow—we identified and measured networks of protected areas for three different groups of mammals. We also examined the value of using umbrella species (typically large‐bodied, far‐ranging mammals) in designing large‐scale networks of protected areas. Although the total amount of protected land varied greatly among biomes in the United States, overall connectivity did not. In general, protected‐area networks were well connected for large mammals but not for smaller mammals. Additionally, it was not possible to predict connectivity for small mammals on the basis of connectivity for large mammals, which suggests the umbrella species approach may not be an appropriate design strategy for conservation networks intended to protect many species. Our findings indicate different strategies should be used to increase the likelihood of persistence for different groups of species. Strategic linkages of existing lands should be a conservation priority for smaller mammals, whereas conservation of larger mammals would benefit most from the protection of more land.     

Understanding Trait‐Dependent Community Disassembly: Dung Beetles,Density Functions,and Forest Fragmentation

Abstract: Anthropogenic disturbances such as fragmentation are rapidly altering biodiversity, yet a lack of attention to species traits and abundance patterns has made the results of most studies difficult to generalize. We determined traits of extinction‐prone species and present a novel strategy for classifying species according to their population‐level response to a gradient of disturbance intensity. We examined the effects of forest fragmentation on dung beetle communities in an archipelago of 33 islands recently created by flooding in Venezuela. Species richness, density, and biomass all declined sharply with decreasing island area and increasing island isolation. Species richness was highly nested, indicating that local extinctions occurred nonrandomly. The most sensitive dung beetle species appeared to require at least 85 ha of forest, more than many large vertebrates. Extinction‐prone species were either large‐bodied, forest specialists, or uncommon. These explanatory variables were unrelated, suggesting at least 3 underlying causes of extirpation. Large species showed high wing loading (body mass/wing area) and a distinct flight strategy that may increase their area requirements. Although forest specificity made most species sensitive to fragmentation, a few persistent habitat generalists dispersed across the matrix. Density functions classified species into 4 response groups on the basis of their change in density with decreasing species richness. Sensitive and persistent species both declined with increasing fragmentation intensity, but persistent species occurred on more islands, which may be due to their higher baseline densities. Compensatory species increased in abundance following the initial loss of sensitive species, but rapidly declined with increasing fragmentation. Supertramp species (widespread habitat generalists) may be poor competitors but strong dispersers; their abundance peaked following the decline of the other 3 groups. Nevertheless, even the least sensitive species were extirpated or rare on the smallest and most isolated islands.     

An Empirical Assessment of the Focal Species Hypothesis

Biodiversity surrogates and indicators are commonly used in conservation management. The focal species approach (FSA) is one method for identifying biodiversity surrogates, and it is underpinned by the hypothesis that management aimed at a particular focal species will confer protection on co‐occurring species. This concept has been the subject of much debate, in part because the validity of the FSA has not been subject to detailed empirical assessment of the extent to which a given focal species actually co‐occurs with other species in an assemblage. To address this knowledge gap, we used large‐scale, long‐term data sets of temperate woodland birds to select focal species associated with threatening processes such as habitat isolation and loss of key vegetation attributes. We quantified co‐occurrence patterns among focal species, species in the wider bird assemblage, and species of conservation concern. Some, but not all, focal species were associated with high levels of species richness. One of our selected focal species was negatively associated with the occurrence of other species (i.e., it was an antisurrogate)—a previously undescribed property of nominated focal species. Furthermore, combinations of focal species were not associated with substantially elevated levels of bird species richness, relative to levels associated with individual species. Our results suggest that although there is some merit to the underpinning concept of the FSA, there is also a need to ensure that actions are sufficiently flexible because management tightly focused on a given focal species may not benefit some other species, including species of conservation concern, such of which might not occur in species‐rich assemblages. Una Evaluación Empírica de la Hipótesis de Especie Focal     

A Mechanistic Approach to Evaluation of Umbrella Species as Conservation Surrogates

Abstract:  Although species with large area requirements are sometimes used as umbrella species, their general utility as conservation tools is uncertain. We surveyed the species diversity of birds, butterflies, carabids, and forest-floor plants in forest sites across an area (1600 km²) in which we delineated large breeding home ranges of Northern Goshawk ( Accipiter gentilis ). We tested whether protection of the home ranges could serve as an effective umbrella to protect sympatric species of the four taxa. We also used an empirical habitat model of occupancy of home range to examine mechanisms by which the Northern Goshawk acts as an umbrella species. Among species richness, abundance, and species composition of the four taxa, only abundance and species composition of birds differed between sites located inside and outside home ranges, which was due to greater abundance of bird species that were prey of Northern Goshawks inside the home ranges. Thus, although home range indicated areas with high abundance of certain bird prey species, it was not effective as an indicator of the species diversity of all four taxa. We also did not find any difference in species richness, abundance, and species composition between sites predicted as occupied and unoccupied using the habitat model. In contrast, when we selected sites on the basis of each habitat variable in the model, habitat variables that selected sites either in agricultural or forested landscapes encompassed sites with high species richness or particular species composition. This result suggests that the low performance of the Northern Goshawk as an umbrella species is due to this species' preference for habitat in both agricultural and forested landscapes. Species that can adjust to changes in habitat conditions may not act as effective umbrella species despite having large home ranges.     

Effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas for conservation of lake fish communities

Freshwater protected areas are rare even though freshwater ecosystems are among the most imperiled in the world. Conservation actions within terrestrial protected areas (TPAs) such as development or resource extraction regulations may spill over to benefit freshwater ecosystems within their boundaries. Using data from 175 lakes across Ontario, Canada, we compared common indicators of fish‐assemblage status (i.e., species richness, Shannon diversity index, catch per unit effort, and normalized‐length size spectrum slopes) to evaluate whether TPAs benefit lake fish assemblages. Nearest neighbor cluster analysis was used to generate pairs of lakes: inside versus outside, inside versus bordering, and bordering versus outside TPAs based on lake characteristics. The diversity and abundance indicators did not differ significantly across comparisons, but normalized‐length size spectrum slopes (NLSS) were significantly steeper in lakes outside parks. The latter indicated assemblage differences (greater abundances of small‐bodied species) and less‐efficient energy transfer through the trophic levels of assemblages outside parks. Although not significantly different, pollution‐ and turbidity‐tolerant species were more abundant outside parks, whereas 3 of the 4 pollution‐intolerant species were more abundant within parks. Twenty‐one percent of the difference in slopes was related to higher total dissolved solids concentrations and angling pressure. Our results support the hypothesis that TPAs benefit lake fish assemblages and suggest that NLSS slopes are informative indicators for aquatic protected area evaluations because they represent compositional and functional aspects of communities.     

Impact of conservation areas on trophic interactions between apex predators and herbivores on coral reefs

Apex predators are declining at alarming rates due to exploitation by humans, but we have yet to fully discern the impacts of apex predator loss on ecosystem function. In a management context, it is critically important to clarify the role apex predators play in structuring populations of lower trophic levels. Thus, we examined the top‐down influence of reef sharks (an apex predator on coral reefs) and mesopredators on large‐bodied herbivores. We measured the abundance, size structure, and biomass of apex predators, mesopredators, and herbivores across fished, no‐take, and no‐entry management zones in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. Shark abundance and mesopredator size and biomass were higher in no‐entry zones than in fished and no‐take zones, which indicates the viability of strictly enforced human exclusion areas as tools for the conservation of predator communities. Changes in predator populations due to protection in no‐entry zones did not have a discernible influence on the density, size, or biomass of different functional groups of herbivorous fishes. The lack of a relationship between predators and herbivores suggests that top‐down forces may not play a strong role in regulating large‐bodied herbivorous coral reef fish populations. Given this inconsistency with traditional ecological theories of trophic cascades, trophic structures on coral reefs may need to be reassessed to enable the establishment of appropriate and effective management regimes. El Impacto de las Áreas de Conservación sobre las Interacciones Tróficas entre los Depredadores Dominantes y los Herbívoros en los Arrecifes de Coral     

Increased primary production shifts the structure and composition of a terrestrial arthropod community

Numerous studies have examined relationships between primary production and biodiversity at higher trophic levels. However, altered production in plant communities is often tightly linked with concomitant shifts in diversity and composition, and most studies have not disentangled the direct effects of production on consumers. Furthermore, when studies do examine the effects of plant production on animals in terrestrial systems, they are primarily confined to a subset of taxonomic or functional groups instead of investigating the responses of the entire community. Using natural monocultures of the salt marsh cordgrass Spartina alterniflora, we were able to examine the impacts of increased plant production, independent of changes in plant composition and/or diversity, on the trophic structure, composition, and diversity of the entire arthropod community. If arthropod species richness increased with greater plant production, we predicted that it would be driven by: (1) an increase in the number of rare species, and/or (2) an increase in arthropod abundance. Our results largely supported our predictions: species richness of herbivores, detritivores, predators, and parasitoids increased monotonically with increasing levels of plant production, and the diversity of rare species also increased with plant production. However, rare species that accounted for this difference were predators, parasitoids, and detritivores, not herbivores. Herbivore species richness could be simply explained by the relationship between abundance and diversity. Using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM), we also found significant changes in arthropod species composition with increasing levels of production. Our findings have important implications in the intertidal salt marsh, where human activities have increased nitrogen runoff into the marsh, and demonstrate that such nitrogen inputs cascade to affect community structure, diversity, and abundance in higher trophic levels.     

Characterizing fish responses to a river restoration over 21 years based on species’ traits

Understanding restoration effectiveness is often impaired by a lack of high‐quality, long‐term monitoring data and, to date, few researchers have used species’ trait information to gain insight into the processes that drive the reaction of fish communities to restoration. We examined fish‐community responses with a highly resolved data set from 21 consecutive years of electrofishing (4 years prerestoration and 17 years postrestoration) at multiple restored and unrestored reaches from a river restoration project on the Lippe River, Germany. Fish abundance peaked in the third year after the restoration; abundance was 6 times higher than before the restoration. After 5–7 years, species richness and abundance stabilized at 2 and 3.5 times higher levels relative to the prerestoration level, respectively. However, interannual variability of species richness and abundance remained considerable, illustrating the challenge of reliably assessing restoration outcomes based on data from individual samplings, especially in the first years following restoration. Life‐history and reproduction‐related traits best explained differences in species’ responses to restoration. Opportunistic short‐lived species with early female maturity and multiple spawning runs per year exhibited the strongest increase in abundance, which reflected their ability to rapidly colonize new habitats. These often small‐bodied and fusiform fishes typically live in dynamic and ephemeral instream and floodplain areas that river‐habitat restorations often aim to create, and in this case their increases in abundance indicated successful restoration. Our results suggest that a greater consideration of species’ traits may enhance the causal understanding of community processes and the coupling of restoration to functional ecology. Trait‐based assessments of restoration outcomes would furthermore allow for easier transfer of knowledge across biogeographic borders than studies based on taxonomy.     

Relations between Urban Bird and Plant Communities and Human Well‐Being and Connection to Nature

Abstract: By 2050, 70% of the world's population will live in urban areas. In many cases urbanization reduces the richness and abundance of native species. Living in highly modified environments with fewer opportunities to interact directly with a diversity of native species may adversely affect residents’ personal well‐being and emotional connection to nature. We assessed the personal well‐being, neighborhood well‐being (a measure of a person's satisfaction with their neighborhood), and level of connection to nature of over 1000 residents in 36 residential neighborhoods in southeastern Australia. We modeled these response variables as a function of natural features of each neighborhood (e.g., species richness and abundance of birds, density of plants, and amount of vegetation cover) and demographic characteristics of surveyed residents. Vegetation cover had the strongest positive relations with personal well‐being, whereas residents’ level of connection to nature was weakly related to variation in species richness and abundance of birds and density of plants. Demographic characteristics such as age and level of activity explained the greatest proportion of variance in well‐being and connection to nature. Nevertheless, when controlling for variation in demographic characteristics (examples were provided above), neighborhood well‐being was positively related to a range of natural features, including species richness and abundance of birds, and vegetation cover. Demographic characteristics and how well‐being was quantified strongly influenced our results, and we suggest demography and metrics of well‐being must be considered when attempting to determine relations between the urban environment and human well‐being.     

Land‐Cover Change and Avian Diversity in the Conterminous United States

Abstract: Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land‐cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land‐cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed‐effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land‐cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.     

Relationships between species richness, evenness, and abundance in a southwestern savanna

Species richness and evenness are components of biological diversity that may or may not be correlated with one another and with patterns of species abundance. We compared these attributes among flowering plants, grasshoppers, butterflies, lizards, summer birds, winter birds, and rodents across 48 plots in the grasslands and mesquite-oak savannas of southeastern Arizona. Species richness and evenness were uncorrelated or weakly negatively correlated for each taxonomic group, supporting the conclusion that richness alone is an incomplete measure of diversity. In each case, richness was positively correlated with one or more measures of abundance. By contrast, evenness usually was negatively correlated with the abundance variables, reflecting the fact that plots with high evenness generally were those where all species present were about equally uncommon. Therefore richness, but not evenness, usually was a positive predictor of places of conservation value, if these are defined as places where species of interest are especially abundant. Species diversity was more positively correlated with evenness than with richness among grasshoppers and flowering plants, in contrast to the other taxonomic groups, and the positive correlations between richness and abundance were comparatively weak for grasshoppers and plants as well. Both of these differences can be attributed to the fact that assemblages of plants and grasshoppers were numerically dominated by small subsets of common species (grasses and certain spur-throated grasshoppers) whose abundances differed greatly among plots in ways unrelated to species richness of the groups as a whole.     

Associations of Grassland Bird Communities with Black‐Tailed Prairie Dogs in the North American Great Plains

Colonial burrowing herbivores can modify vegetation structure, create belowground refugia, and generate landscape heterogeneity, thereby affecting the distribution and abundance of associated species. Black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are such a species, and they may strongly affect the abundance and composition of grassland bird communities. We examined how prairie dog colonies in the North American Great Plains affect bird species and community composition. Areas occupied by prairie dogs, characterized by low percent cover of grass, high percent cover of bare soil, and low vegetation height and density, supported a breeding bird community that differed substantially from surrounding areas that lacked prairie dogs. Bird communities on colony sites had significantly greater densities of large‐bodied carnivores (Burrowing Owls [Athene cunicularia], Mountain Plovers, [Charadrius montanus], and Killdeer [Charadrius vociferus]) and omnivores consisting of Horned Larks (Eremophila alpestris) and McCown's Longspurs (Rhynchophanes mccownii) than bird communities off colony sites. Bird communities off colony sites were dominated by small‐bodied insectivorous sparrows (Ammodramus spp.) and omnivorous Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys), Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus), and Lark Sparrows (Chondestes grammacus). Densities of 3 species of conservation concern and 1 game species were significantly higher on colony sites than off colony sites, and the strength of prairie dog effects was consistent across the northern Great Plains. Vegetation modification by prairie dogs sustains a diverse suite of bird species in these grasslands. Collectively, our findings and those from previous studies show that areas in the North American Great Plains with prairie dog colonies support higher densities of at least 9 vertebrate species than sites without colonies. Prairie dogs affect habitat for these species through multiple pathways, including creation of belowground refugia, supply of prey for specialized predators, modification of vegetation structure within colonies, and increased landscape heterogeneity. Asociaciones de Comunidades de Aves de Pastizales con Perros de la Pradera en la Gran Llanura de Norte América     

Evaluating complementary networks of restoration plantings for landscape‐scale occurrence of temporally dynamic species

Multibillion dollar investments in land restoration make it critical that conservation goals are achieved cost‐effectively. Approaches developed for systematic conservation planning offer opportunities to evaluate landscape‐scale, temporally dynamic biodiversity outcomes from restoration and improve on traditional approaches that focus on the most species‐rich plantings. We investigated whether it is possible to apply a complementarity‐based approach to evaluate the extent to which an existing network of restoration plantings meets representation targets. Using a case study of woodland birds of conservation concern in southeastern Australia, we compared complementarity‐based selections of plantings based on temporally dynamic species occurrences with selections based on static species occurrences and selections based on ranking plantings by species richness. The dynamic complementarity approach, which incorporated species occurrences over 5 years, resulted in higher species occurrences and proportion of targets met compared with the static complementarity approach, in which species occurrences were taken at a single point in time. For equivalent cost, the dynamic complementarity approach also always resulted in higher average minimum percent occurrence of species maintained through time and a higher proportion of the bird community meeting representation targets compared with the species‐richness approach. Plantings selected under the complementarity approaches represented the full range of planting attributes, whereas those selected under the species‐richness approach were larger in size. Our results suggest that future restoration policy should not attempt to achieve all conservation goals within individual plantings, but should instead capitalize on restoration opportunities as they arise to achieve collective value of multiple plantings across the landscape. Networks of restoration plantings with complementary attributes of age, size, vegetation structure, and landscape context lead to considerably better outcomes than conventional restoration objectives of site‐scale species richness and are crucial for allocating restoration investment wisely to reach desired conservation goals.     

Effects of Land‐Use Change on Community Composition of Tropical Amphibians and Reptiles in Sulawesi,Indonesia

Abstract: Little is known about the effects of anthropogenic land‐use change on the amphibians and reptiles of the biodiverse tropical forests of Southeast Asia. We studied a land‐use modification gradient stretching from primary forest, secondary forest, natural‐shade cacao agroforest, planted‐shade cacao agroforest to open areas in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We determined species richness, abundance, turnover, and community composition in all habitat types and related these to environmental correlates, such as canopy heterogeneity and thickness of leaf litter. Amphibian species richness decreased systematically along the land‐use modification gradient, but reptile richness and abundance peaked in natural‐shade cacao agroforests. Species richness and abundance patterns across the disturbance gradient were best explained by canopy cover and leaf‐litter thickness in amphibians and by canopy heterogeneity and cover in reptiles. Amphibians were more severely affected by forest disturbance in Sulawesi than reptiles. Heterogeneous canopy cover and thick leaf litter should be maintained in cacao plantations to facilitate the conservation value for both groups. For long‐term and sustainable use of plantations, pruned shade trees should be permanently kept to allow rejuvenation of cacao and, thus, to prevent repeated forest encroachment.     

Use of Community‐Composition Data to Predict the Fecundity and Abundance of Species

Abstract: Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co‐occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community‐composition data. Composition‐based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment‐based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above‐ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community‐composition data were the best predictors of both the site‐specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site‐specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community‐based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community‐based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.     

Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.