Valuing uncertain asset cash flows when there are no options: A real options approach

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to quantify the additional asset value arising from flexible asset management. However, these two valuation methods differ on a more fundamental level: their approach to determining the effects of cash flow uncertainty on asset value. Real option valuation adjusts for risk within the cash flow components while the DCF method discounts for risk at the aggregate net cash flow. This seemingly small difference allows the real option method to differentiate assets according to their unique risk characteristics, while the conventional DCF approach cannot.This paper presents an overview of the real options and conventional DCF frameworks for valuing uncertain cash flows. To emphasize the approaches' different treatment of risk we assume an absence of managerial flexibility. Using simple algebra, this paper demonstrates that the traditional DCF method fails to adequately discount net cash flow risk, no matter what discount rate is used. Finally, in a stylized mining example we show that DCF rules would lead a developer to forego $24.5 million in value creation, at a profitability index of 1.49, by making a poor investment decision.     

Analysing Conflict between Cultural Heritage and Nature Conservation in the Australian Alps: A CVM Approach

The contingent valuation method (CVM) can be useful for assessing the non-market economic values associated with government land use decisions. A particular variant of CVM, which is based on dichotomous choice responses, has become widely used. Previous studies have employed a variety of techniques for analysing dichotomous choice CVM data to produce estimates of economic welfare changes. This paper summarizes these analytical options, and illustrates their application in a case study concerning cattle grazing on the Bogong High Plains in the Australian Alps. This case study is one of the few to assess the non-market economic value of cultural heritage conservation using contingent valuation, and is also unusual in that the competing values are both non-market in character. Nature conservation and heritage values were separately measured using two independent surveys. Mean willingness to pay for nature conservation and cultural heritage were estimated using a range of parametric and nonparametric methods.     

Effects of spatial and temporal scales on cultural services valuation

The monetary valuation of ecosystem services has proved to be a powerful tool for influencing management decisions, as it can be used to quantify the relative importance of various ecosystem functions. However, these valuation methods are rarely implemented with adequate care; in particular, they do not consider spatial and temporal variations in the services offered and demanded. This paper examines the effect of heterogeneity on the valuation of cultural services offered by the Doñana natural protected area in Spain. We apply the zonal travel cost method at various spatial scales, and the individual travel cost method at various temporal scales. We conclude that economic valuation techniques must account for spatial and temporal heterogeneity if they are to provide accurate and realistic information.     

Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?

Over the last few years, many studies have presented the real options valuation (ROV) as a promising technique of valuing natural resource investments under conditions of uncertainty. Apart from the common conclusion that the ROV is better than the conventional net present value (NPV) method in integrating the value of management flexibility and proper handling of cash flows risk, there is a lack of procedures for testing the usefulness and advantages of the ROV over the static NPV method in practice. Arguably, it is not yet clear whether the ROV can deal with the complexity of mining projects and whether it can really be applied to make decisions that improve project value.     

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THIRD WORLD MINING AGREEMENTS

The long-term trend toward mineral resource development agreements that reflect the desires of developing country governments as well as those of foreign investors is not always clear-cut. At times, conditions in the market for a particular mineral and general financial conditions may affect the balance of bargaining power between governments and investors. Mr Zorn's analysis of two recent copper agreements, in Panama and Papua New Guinea, shows that foreign investors have been able to achieve favorable provisions for the early return of capital and for ensuring investor control over key management decisions. At the same time, the host governments have won provisions that may increase their 'take' from the projects in the longer term.     

What drives large South African corporations to invest in sub‐Saharan Africa? CEO's perspectives and implications for FDI policies

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into Africa is highly diverse in terms of the origin of the investors, size of the firms, and the sectors of activity. The motivations and factors driving firms' decisions to invest in Africa are equally diverse. A direct survey of senior management in South African firms that are operating in sub-Saharan Africa reveals that the drivers of foreign investment as well as the risks and the strategies to overcome them differ markedly between sectors. A further finding is that there is a limited pool of FDI promotion policies and incentives that governments can institute that are effective in impacting South African corporations' investment decisions. As a consequence, broad-based FDI promotion policies aimed at attracting FDI across all investor groups are likely to have limited impact in attracting FDI from any particular investor group, or in attracting any FDI from multinational companies similar to the South African companies studied here. Such broad based policies probably need to be complemented with policies targeting those specific firms or sectors which countries hope to attract.     

On accounting for sustainable development and accounting for the environment

Economic sustainability or intergenerational equity entails maintaining social well-being by decisions about investments in different types of assets. Under certain conditions, consumption can be sustained by depleting resources, or various kinds of natural capital, while building up other kinds of capital. Theoretically, the choices involve the use of a set of accounting prices. The question becomes one of finding and implementing accounting prices that express the roles of the various capital goods in achieving the objective of the economy.Hartwick's rule holds that an economy can be sustained if the value of the total, net investment in the economy, evaluated at those accounting prices, is zero. The rule applies to a special, abstract economic model which expresses a social objective different from the discounted-utilitarian objective on which national accounting is based. Different objectives give rise to different accounting prices. Because the prices may not be right, the zero net-investment rule using available national-accounting prices cannot generate a condition for sustaining an economy.Still, environmental accounting is a tool which, used prudently, can make an important contribution to social decision-making. This paper expands upon these ideas by discussing the incorporation of natural resource and intangible environmental costs and benefits into green accounting at the firm as well as the economy level. Common techniques of mine valuation and standard corporate accounting are the bases for this extension to the valuation of and accounting for decisions concerning the environment.     

我国ESG投资基金发展趋势分析与展望

ESG投资作为基于企业社会价值投资的投资策略,已逐渐成为国际投资市场的焦点。国内ESG投资尚处于快速发展阶段,市场规律研究及监管机制建设尚处于探索发展阶段。本文系统分析了我国当前ESG投资实践发展进展及其创新,剖析了ESG投资基金相关政策进展、发展方向,以及ESG投资基金行业发展面临的关键问题,提出了促进投资理念渗透、提升信息披露质量、加快投资方式创新等对策建议,并就探索统一估值体系、深化ESG货币化测量研究等进行了展望。     

Reasonable creatures: rights and rationalities in valuing the countryside

Debate on the economic valuation of the countryside is typically polarized between absolutist critics who would deny it any valid role and equally fervid proponents who see its techniques as the only way of integrating the environment into policy making. Such debate is structured by conflicting notions of rights, responsibilities and values, rather than by consideration of the role of technique in practical policy‐making. This paper attempts to take the debate forward and begins by examining the ways in which rights, responsibilities and values have been historically created. The techniques of economic valuation rest on particular conceptions of these, making them irreducibly political, and at the same time their results are often used to justify political decisions. Yet the proper role of technique ought to be to explore options. Provided that the sort of clarification that economic valuation offers is understood, it may, along with other types of technique, be used to open up the decision making process.     

Risk Management of Sediment Stress: A Framework for Sediment Risk Management Research

Research related to the ecological risk management of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk management research program relies heavily on model development and verification, and should be applied under an adaptive management approach. The framework is centered on using best management practices (BMPs), including eco-restoration. It is designed to encourage the development of numerical representations of the performance of these management options, the integration of this information into sediment transport simulation models that account for uncertainty in both input and output, and would use strategic environmental monitoring to guide sediment-related risk management decisions for mixed land use watersheds. The goal of this project was to provide a sound scientific framework based on recent state of the practice in sediment-related risk assessment and management for research and regulatory activities. As a result, shortcomings in the extant data and measurement and modeling tools were identified that can help determine future research direction. The compilation of information is beneficial to the coordination of related work being conducted within and across entities responsible for managing watershed-scale risks to aquatic ecosystems.     

Implementing an environmental business strategy: A step-by-step guide

With more and more organizations seeking opportunities to generate benefits beyond compliance from environmental management activities, the challenges for environmental directors today is to develop and implement an environmental strategy that links environmental performance with the overarching strategic business goals of the organization. Organizations today are looking for opportunities to develop environmental management solutions that not only address the concerns of regulatory stakeholders, but also provide opportunities to improve operating efficiency and financial performance, enhance customer satisfaction, sustain market growth, and enhance goodwill, to satisfy the demands of a broader set of stakeholder groups including customers, investors, and employees. To achieve broader benefits from environmental management investments, this article shows how organizations must first develop a methodology for aligning their environmental management activities with the organization's strategic business goals and create a plan for systematically managing continuous improvement to achieve these goals. The second challenge is to implement this strategy at the business unit and facility level in a manner which integrates environmental management activities with an organization's core business processes to achieve improved product and service performance.     

Strategic evaluation of environmental projects in SMEs

This article examines how small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can improve their capital investment decisionmaking process for both environmental and general capital projects. It proposes a framework that helps integrate environmental impacts into capital investment decisions, while recognizing SMEs' specific management practices, unique culture, and constraints. The framework presented here is also applicable to independent strategic business units of larger organizations where the capital investment decision process is decentralized. ©2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

How rational are investment decisions in the copper industry?

This paper examines ex-post 51 investment decisions made in regard to copper mines coming on stream from 1957 through 1999. It discusses two critical variables: investment timing and mine capacity choice. Using a 15% discount rate, results suggest that fewer than half of decisions were made at the right time – i.e., low price periods – confirming countercyclical investment as the optimal policy. In terms of capacity choice, the distortion is even higher, as 36 projects should have entered at least 40% larger or smaller. Realized investment decisions for timing and capacity choice would have caused a 49.1% loss over the NPV potentially achievable under optimal resolutions. Although the difference could be specifically attributed to copper price uncertainty, this paper discusses how investment evaluation methodologies could be contributing to firms not being fully rational (in the neoclassical sense) when investing.     

Mineral sector technologies: policy implications for developing countries

Over the past 20 years the mining industry has been a leader in the conception and application of advanced technologies. New thinking about earth tectonics as well as advances in geophysics, geochemistry, remote sensing, data processing and communications permit more effective and accurate geological exploration. Mechanization, more durable materials and more powerful explosives, as well as computer aided mine design and management have led to substantial gains in productivity. Minerals processing has similarly seen significant technological advances including solvent extraction, electro-winning of metal ores, bath smelting techniques, cyanide leach to produce gold, and bioleaching of sulphide and refractory ores. New technologies have dramatically improved mine health and safety as well as making possible control of water and air pollution. Improved communication and transport have stimulated competition and fostered the internationalization of mineral commodity prices. As these technologies are essentially market driven, developing countries should continue current efforts towards economic liberalization. Promoting investment in mining entails lifting many of the restrictions and taxes that can hinder efficient exploration and development. We examine some developments that have greatly increased the efficiency of exploration, mining and marketing. To obtain maximum benefit from many of these technologies requires governments to adopt a wide range of new policies which are examined in some detail.     

Economic liberalisation, innovation, and technology transfer: opportunities for cleaner production in the minerals industry

The liberalisation of investment regimes for mining over the past decade is encouraging an inflow of foreign investment for mining and mineral processing projects in developing and former centrally-planned economies. This new investment is occurring at a time of technological change within the international mining industry as market and regulatory pressures lead the most dynamic firms to invest in the development or acquisition of new technologies and management practices. The effective transfer and assimilation of these technologies enable mining companies to combine gains in productivity with improvements in environmental management. Joint ventures and other strategic alliances between inwardly investing firms and the newly privatised or remnant state-owned mining enterprises may provide an effective vehicle for the transfer of the techniques for more productive and cleaner operations. Specific examples of innovative process and remediation technologies are analysed and it is suggested that the ability of innovative technologies to improve competitiveness and sustain best-practice environmental management in the recipient is linked to the transfer and effective acquisition of the capacity to manage the complex processes of technological and organisational change. The paper closes with some recommendations for further research directed towards a systematic examination of this hypothesis.     

Policy And Practice Green Grass and Brown Roots: Understanding Environmental Problems in Deprived Neighbourhoods

Understanding neighbourhood conditions can play an important role in urban environmental management, especially when environmental services are lacking and new approachesare being debated. This paper describes and evaluates three research methods for assessing some of the environmentalproblems facing low income households and communities: (1) broad spectrum household surveys; (2) participatory rapid assessment; and (3) contingent valuation. As part of the study upon which this paper is based, the techniques were applied on a small scale in Jakarta. The paper finds that each technique can provide important and often complementaryinsights. The broad spectrum survey is particularly suitable to broad based planning, participatory appraisal to NGO initiatives and contingent valuation to utility pricing decisions.     

Equity and productivity assessments in the Olifants River basin, South Africa

Emerging approaches to water resources development and management typically highlight equity and productivity as two main objectives. In the context of integrated water resources management within a river basin, managers and stakeholders often need a comparative assessment of different options for water augmentation and/or allocation. Pitting such options against predefined objectives, such as equity and productivity, requires an assessment of the effects that available options will have on these objectives. Available documentation indicates that not only does the interpretation of such objectives vary widely, but also the available methods for assessing equity and productivity run into significant limitations in the availability of adequate data. This limitation has largely kept decision makers from gaining a comprehensive overview of equity and productivity scenarios, whether within or across sectors, that could facilitate better‐informed decisions. To address this methodological gap, this article scrutinizes different notions associated with equity and water productivity, and limitations in prevalent assessment methods with the view to develop and demonstrate pragmatic methodologies for assessing equity and productivity in data‐scarce contexts. The discussion and findings are based on a review of relevant literature and empirical and consultative research work in the Olifants River basin in South Africa. The demonstrated methodologies for assessing equity and productivity, besides being useful in data‐scarce contexts, are insightful for initiating several policy measures and also for exploring the relationship between equity and water productivity.     

News sentiment to market impact and its feedback effect

Although market feedback on investor sentiment effect has been conceptually identified in the existing finance literature and investment strategies have been designed to explore this effect, there lacks systematic analysis in a quantified manner on such effect. Digitization of news articles and the advancement of computational intelligence applications have led to a growing influence of news sentiment over financial markets in recent years. News sentiment has often been used as a proxy for gauging investor sentiment and reflecting the aggregate confidence of the society toward future market. Previous studies have primarily focused on elucidating the unidirectional impact of news sentiment on market returns and not vice versa. In this study, we analyze more than 12 millions of news articles and document the presence of a significant feedback effect between news sentiment and market returns across the major indices in the US financial market. More specifically, we find that news sentiment exhibits a lag-5 effect on market returns and conversely market returns elicit consistent lag-1 effects on news sentiment. This aligns well with our intuition that news sentiment drives trading activity and investment decisions. In turn, heightened investment activity further stimulates involuntary responses, which manifest in the form of more news coverage and publications. The evidence presented highlights the strong correlation between news sentiment and market returns and demonstrates the benefits of advancing knowledge in data-driven modeling and its interaction with market movements.     

Economic valuation as a tool to support decision-making in strategic green infrastructure planning

Decision-making in spatial planning is often based only on administrative regulations and procedures. This approach does not guarantee an efficient allocation of scarce financial resources. Consequently, the present paper discusses the practical relevance of an approach to incorporate results of economic valuation into strategic spatial planning for the example of green infrastructure. For this, a contingent valuation was conducted at a reference site in Esslingen, Germany. Here, participants of the survey stated their willingness to pay for different green infrastructure investment categories. Build on the survey results, the possible future foci of regional green infrastructure planning are derived and impacts on regional green infrastructure policy for the case of the Neckar region are investigated.     

Financing energy transformation: The role of renewable energy equity indices

The support of financial markets for the transformation of the energy system to a low carbon society seems critical for its success. But will they support this transformation on the basis of market incentives alone? This study analyses how equity indices that try to capture renewable energy investments perform compared to conventional benchmark indices. Especially financial market investors—such as pension funds, insurance companies, and mutual funds—use these to assess and guide their renewable energy investments. As such, we take the perspective of financial market participants, which mainly only indirectly invest in renewable energy. We also analyze whether renewable energy indices are to be regarded as an example of market environmentalism. We find that the renewable energy indices’ risk-adjusted return is very poor and suggests renewables is not a financially attractive portfolio investment yet. We also argue that renewable energy equity indices can be regarded as an example of market environmentalism, especially with respect to commodification and frame-shifting.