Some political aspects of pollution control

In this paper some principles of optimal control theory are applied to an examination of the possible differences that political and economic decisions making may have in the area of pollution control. The main points are that (1) Pollution Control Boards (PCB's) may behave as though they place weights on control and benefit functions that differ from market determined weights, (2) divergencies between political and market weights impose welfar; losses, and (3) given that PCB's may be succeeded by another board the current PCB may adapt its behavior to counteract or enforce the expected future behavior of the new PCB.     

A general model for analyzing Taylor's spatial scaling laws

Taylor's spatial scaling law concerns the relation between the variance and the mean population counts within areas of a given size. For a range of area sizes, the log of the variance often is an approximately linear function of the mean with a slope between 1 and 2, depending on the range of areas considered. In this paper, we investigate this relationship theoretically for random quadrat samples within a large area. The model makes a distinction between the local point process determining the position of each individual and the population density described by a spatial covariance function. The local point process and the spatial covariance of population density both contribute to the general relationship between the mean and the variance in which the slope may begin at 1, increase to 2, and decrease to 1 again. It is demonstrated by an example that the slope theoretically may exceed 2 by a small amount for very regular patterns that generate spatial covariance functions that increase in certain intervals. We also show how properties of population dynamics in space and time determine this relationship.     

The backward incidence of pollution control in a rigid-wage economy

The backward incidence of pollution controls onto the polluting and nonpolluting industries is examined in a two-sector, rigid-wage economy characterized by unemployment in both the short run and the long run. As expected, more restrictive pollution controls result in contraction in the polluting sector and expansion in the nonpolluting sector. Somewhat unexpectedly, national income may rise with stronger pollution controls, if the polluting industry is relatively capital intensive.     

A dynamic model of human dispersal in a land-based economy

This paper presents a dynamic state variable model that examines human dispersal in a land-based economy. In humans, like other animals, many individuals disperse during their lifetimes, with extensive variability in the timing and likelihood of dispersal by individuals of different states. The model places human and non-human dispersal in a common framework, specifically by utilizing a cost-benefit approach. As with other animals, individual access to resources likely plays an important role in shaping human dispersal, and the model explores the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Over a series of time steps, individuals must decide whether to stay in their natal area or disperse, given their states (wealth, marital, and inheritance status) and the environmental constraints on dispersal. Costs of dispersal include time and an initial drop in wealth, while the benefit is the potential of the dispersal area to increase wealth. The model determines whether dispersing or staying results in the highest fitness, where fitness is a function of individual wealth and years married. The model shows that dispersal is favorable under a wide range of environmental conditions, but that it also varies predictably according to individual states. Men of middle wealth values disperse under a wider variety of circumstances than poorer or wealthier men. Wealthy men, who are particularly sensitive to the time cost and mortality risk associated with dispersing, appear to adopt a more conservative dispersal strategy than poorer men, who are more sensitive to the wealth cost and wealth growth rate associated with dispersing. Dispersal behavior is also contingent on its effects on an individual's probability of marrying or inheriting wealth. Finally, the model fosters an examination of how the interaction of life events, and their directions of causation, can be studied. Received: 6 May 1998 / Received in revised form: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

A model for ecological assessment to pesticide pollution management

Applying the relational analysis in the Grey System Theory and Method, the comprehensive evaluation on five pesticide pollution controlling techniques in the vegetable production has been made and a comprehensive profit (cp–comprehensive cost (cc) evaluation system (composed of 15 comprehensive cost indices and 14 comprehensive profit indices) has been established, with a index optimization matrix of comprehensive cost indices and comprehensive profit indices obtained and a ratio model of comprehensive cost to comprehensive profit (R_cc/cp) built. Results show that the R_cc/cp value of vegetables intercropping soybeans in insect-proof thin film greenhouses is the smallest and the R_cc/cp value of vegetables intercropping taros in insect-proof net greenhouses, pheromones in insect-proof thin film greenhouses, pheromones in insect-proof thin film greenhouses and ground planting (only using chemical pesticide for insect-proof without covering materials and synthetic sex pheromone) other four techniques are 0.6268, 0.6393, 0.6407, 0.9809 respectively. In accordance with the R_cc/cp value, vegetables intercropping soybeans in insect-proof thin film greenhouses can be the most optimized pesticide pollution controlling technique in the vegetable growing.     

CBM-CFS3: A model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards

The scientific community, forest managers, environmental organizations, carbon-offset trading systems and policy-makers require tools to account for forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. In this paper we describe updates to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) implemented over the past years. This model of carbon-dynamics implements a Tier 3 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Good Practice Guidance for reporting on carbon stocks and carbon stock changes resulting from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The CBM-CFS3 is a generic modelling framework that can be applied at the stand, landscape and national levels. The model provides a spatially referenced, hierarchical system for integrating datasets originating from different forest inventory and monitoring programs and includes a structure that allows for tracking of land areas by different land-use and land-use change classes. Ecosystem pools in CBM-CFS3 can be easily mapped to IPCC-defined pools and validated against field measurements. The model uses sophisticated algorithms for converting volume to biomass and explicitly simulates individual annual disturbance events (natural and anthropogenic). Several important scientific updates have been made to improve the representation of ecosystem structure and processes from previous versions of CBM-CFS. These include: (1) an expanded representation of dead organic matter and soil carbon, particularly standing dead trees, and a new algorithm for initializing these pools prior to simulation, (2) a change in the input data requirement for simulating growth from biomass to readily available merchantable volume curves, and new algorithms for converting volume to biomass, (3) improved prediction of belowground biomass, and (4) improved parameters for soil organic matter decay, fire, insect disturbances, and forest management. In addition, an operational-scale version of CBM-CFS3 is freely available and includes tools to import data in standard formats, including the output of several timber supply models that are commonly used in Canada. Although developed for Canadian forests, the flexible nature of the model has enabled it to be adapted for use in several other countries.     

Derived decision rules for pollution control in a general equilibrium space economy

This paper attempts to narrow the gap between economic theory and policy inthe field of environmental pollution control by expanding the traditional general equilibrium model to include the kind of spatial detail that is important for describing pollution. This model is then used to derive theorems which provide the basis for the development of spatially differentiated, tax-based decision rules. In spite of the fact that these rules require no information on either damage costs or control costs, they maintain many of the desirable properties of the more conventional informationally intensive tax policies.     

A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of \(\text {NO}_{x}\) in the Los Angeles area during a 10 year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated \(R^2\) of approximately \(0.7\) at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.     

A model for approving and controlling sea water pollution for recreational activity

A model for assessing approval of a beach for recreational water activity was proposed. The model is based upon a sanitary survey together with intensive microbiological monitoring three times a day, five times a week for a month. In highly populated areas, continuous surveys once a day, five days a week are needed in order to assure the cleanliness and safety of these beaches.

Due to our intensive monitoring system, we can assure that Tel‐Aviv has one of the cleanest beaches near a metropolitan area in the Mediterranean Sea.     

Alternative policy instruments under uncertainty: A programming model of toxic pollution control

This paper presents the results of a programming model which examines the relative performance of different regulatory regimes under uncertainty in controlling toxic wastes discharged by industry to a central treatment plant when the central is subject to threshold-type losses in treatment performance. Four regulatory regimes are examined: non-market quantity, price, marketable permit, and mixed price-quantity. The theoretical framework of the model is based on the analysis of prices vs quantities by Weitzman in 1974 and its extension to the case of a discontinuous threshold effect. The data used are based on the situation of Bridgeport, Connecticut, which has a number of metal finishing firms.     

The short and long run effects of tied foreign aid on pollution abatement, pollution and employment: A pilot model

There exists in the literature a presumption that tied foreign aid can be used effectively to reduce cross-border pollution. Focusing, in contrast to the received literature, on the interaction between the public and private provisions of pollution abatement in the recipient country, we question the effectiveness of tied foreign aid in reducing pollution. In this context, we obtain many novel and policy relevant insights. Allowing for changes in labour employment and distinguishing between short and long run effects, tied foreign aid is shown to crowd out the private provision for pollution abatement in the short run. In the long run, tied foreign aid raises employment and therefore may be desirable for the recipient but undesirable for the donor country because it also raises pollution. The results change drastically if only the government provides pollution abatement.     

A chance-constrained goal programming model to evaluate response resources for marine pollution disasters

This paper develops a model to aid Coast Guard managers in formulating appropriate policies with respect to planning for various types of equipment required to contain major pollution incidents. The model is elaborated in terms of three primary stages of response: offloading, containment, and removal. The zero order rule of chance constrained programming is used to obtain a deterministic equivalent of the original chance constrained model. This is then replaced by a goal programming formulation to allow for plans that come “as close as possible” to desired quality and risk levels for each pertinent region and type of incident. Numerical examples illustrate potential uses of the model with special emphasis on its value for budgetary (equipment) planning by central management that extends to evaluation of risk and performance quality levels, as well as the usual dual evaluator approaches for evaluating initially prescribed levels for equipment and their efficiency coefficients.     

A global security approach towards implementing sustainable development in southern Africa

SUMMARY

An interactive and incremental developmental approach to sustainable development is proposed. It requires broad public participation, is based on the development of a shared value system for civic society and norms which determine the behaviour of states. It is aimed at building commitment rather than directing change. This is achieved by simultaneoulsy harnessing the notions of ‘positive human survival’ adopted from Global Security theory and a co-evolutionary approach to human socio-economic constructs. Modern threats to Nation States can be regarded as ‘threats without enemies’, are not compatible with traditional views of sovereignty, and confronting such threats frequently requires co-operative behaviour and good neigbourliness from states. Principles likely to underpin an evolving shared value system for Nation states and civil society include: democracy, equity and diversity. In order to deal with the uncertainty of evolving socio-economic constructs and the conceptual pluralism inherent in modern societies, public agencies need to develop significant mediation, negotiation and facilitation skills. This view has significant implications for National and Regional policy, and the democratisation of information and the development of early warning capabilities about potential threats to human security are pivotal.     

重金属污染土壤属性区间识别模型的赋权分析

土壤重金属污染评价为土壤重金属污染的及时防范和综合治理提供重要的理论依据。文章在属性区间识别理论的基础上,构建土壤重金属污染评价的属性区间识别模型：选取土壤重金属污染中普遍存在的Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cu、Zn作为评价指标,采用均化系数将各评价指标的属性测度区间转化为综合属性测度;为避免主观因素,利用主成分分析法、熵权法、CRITIC法对各评价指标进行3次客观赋权;最后根据置信度准则和分级标准进行土壤重金属污染的综合评价。对3种赋权法得到的权重和评价结果进行比较,表明：属性识别模型在土壤重金属污染评价中适用且有利于评价结果准确性的提高;3种客观赋权法算得的权重合理,且其优异程度为主成分分析法〈熵权法〈CRITIC法。     

大气化学污染的植物净化研究进展

大气污染是人类面临的严重环境问题之一,植物除了可以监测大气的化学污染外,在近地表大气污染物的清除中起着重要作用。利用植物净化大气化学污染是一种经济、有效、非破坏型的环境污染修复方式,植物净化污染大气的思想及其技术对城市园林绿化、环境规划和生态环境建设等具有直接的指导意义和应用价值。文章简要介绍了大气化学污染植物净化的机理,综述了近年来利用植物净化大气无机污染物和有机污染物的研究成果,并展望了今后需要进一步研究的领域。植物净化化学性大气污染的主要过程是持留和去除:持留过程涉及植物截获、吸附和滞留等,去除过程包括植物吸收、降解、转化、同化和超同化等。利用生物学、化学、农学、土壤科学和环境科学等多学科交叉,筛选高效的净化植物、研究污染物在植物体内的转化机理和影响净化效果的因素、开发联合修复技术、培育转基因净化植物等是未来研究的主要方向。     

汞污染及人体负荷研究进展

汞污染是个全球性的问题,汞在一些厌氧微生物的作用下会生成毒性较大的甲基汞,对人体健康产生威胁.本文综述了汞污染以及人体负荷的一些研究进展,包括汞对人体的危害、生物学指标、普通人群甲基汞暴露的两条主要途径等.之前普遍认为食用鱼贝类等水产品是造成人体甲基汞暴露的主要途径,但最近有研究发现大米中甲基汞含量偏高,食用大米会造成潜在甲基汞暴露风险.目前大米甲基汞暴露研究大多集中在我国贵州地区,未来非常有必要在更多的地区开展大米中甲基汞水平的调查,评价大米中低剂量甲基汞长期暴露的风险,以保障大米的安全性.     

A review of marine pollution issues in the Caribbean

Marine pollution and coastal degradation have become serious development issues in the Caribbean. Early evidence of marine pollution was mainly anecdotal, but within the last 10--15 years, work conducted by universities and research institutions in the Region has provided the beginnings of a database that identifies several common marine pollution problems. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and the Pan American World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO) have also been instrumental in co-ordinating several marine pollution studies. In the English-speaking Caribbean, the University of the West Indies, the Institute of Marine Affairs in Trinidad and Tobago, and the Caribbean Environmental Health Institute located in St Lucia, have taken a lead role in identifying marine pollution problems in their Sub-Region. For the Wider Caribbean a database for petroleum pollution and marine debris has been developed. Land-based sources of marine pollution have been identified as a major problem, with several hot spots identified in mainland countries and in some of the larger industrialised islands. Organic and nutrient pollution, particularly from sewage, is most widespread and is possibly the most serious marine pollution problem in the Caribbean. A lack of capital investment funds to install the appropriate infrastructure to deal with sewage and other liquid effluents is a major stumbling block to solving the problem of marine pollution in the Caribbean. Other factors include political will and administrative and legal structures to regulate human development activities.     

Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory

In this study, a model for assessing of environmental disasters in near-shore areas was developed using a multi-criteria evaluation method of catastrophe theory. The assessment model involved scenarios of eutrophication, pollution with heavy metals and organic compounds. An evaluation system of the model was composed of seven mesosphere indicators and twenty underlying indicators including water chemistry, water physics, water biology, heavy metals and organic pollutants in water and surface sediments. The model was applied to possibility assessment of environmental disasters in different functional regions of the Dalian Bay in 2001 and 2006. Results showed that the environmental disaster indicators in 2001 were equivalent to the Level 4 standard values of marine functional areas, but the eutrophication disaster indicators were lower than the Level 4 standard values. It is consistent with the occurrence of a large-scale red tide in Dalian Bay in 2001. In 2006, eutrophication remained the dominant problem of the region but organic pollutants, such as oil, were reduced remarkably. This coincided with ongoing local environmental-friendly practices for industries.     

The backward incidence of pollution control: A dual approach

The backward incidence of pollution control is reexamined using the techniques of duality theory. The simple geometry used establishes the results and clarifies them without the complicated mathematical manipulations required in earlier works, thereby making the material more attractive for classroom presentation.