Appraisal of coastal recreational resources in Qingdao by travel cost method

This paper serves to appraise the monetary cost of coastal recreational resources in Qingdao using the travel cost method (TCM), which is typically used in developed countries. The total revenue produced by Qingdao’s coastal recreational resources is about RMB 5.51×10¹⁰ annually, based on questionnaires given at Qingdao’s major tourist destinations. These questionnaires establish correlation functions that factor in the number of tourists, travel expenses, etc. The data processing software named Eviews was used to determine the tourist demand regression curve and to calculate their residual and actual travel expenses. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for applicable industries interested in development and management decision-making. Therefore, this study assesses the reasonable usage of coastal recreational resources.     

Energy demand of larval and juvenile Cape horse mackerels, Trachurus capensis, and indications of hypoxia tolerance as benefit in a changing environment

Trachurus capensis is an important fisheries resource in the degraded Namibian upwelling ecosystem. Food supply and shoaling of hypoxic zones are hypothesised to influence the species’ recruitment success. This paper is the first to quantify energy requirements and hypoxia tolerance of larval and juvenile stages of a Trachurus species. We measured normoxic respiration rates of T. capensis with a size range from 0.001 to 20.8 g wet mass (WM) collected off Cape Town (33.9°S, 18.5°E, 12/2009) and in the northern Benguela (17–24°S, 11–15°E, 02/2011). Routine metabolic rate (RMR) and standard routine rate (SRR) (mg O₂ h^?1) followed the allometric functions RMR = 0.418 WM^0.774 and SRR = 0.275 WM^0.855, respectively. Larvae and juveniles had comparatively high metabolic rates, and the energy demand of juveniles at the upper end of the size range appeared too high to be fuelled by a copepod diet alone. T. capensis’ early life stages showed a high tolerance to hypoxic conditions. RMR in larvae did not change until 30 % O₂sat at 18 °C. In juveniles, critical oxygen saturation levels were low (P_C for SRR = 11.2 ± 1.7 % O₂sat and P_C for RMR = 13.2 ± 1.6 % O₂sat at 20 °C) and oxy-regulation effective (regulation index = 0.78 ± 0.09). A high hypoxia tolerance may facilitate the retention of larvae in near-shore waters providing favourable feeding conditions and allowing juveniles to exploit food resources in the oxygen minimum zone. These mechanisms seem to well adapt T. capensis to a habitat affected by spreading hypoxic zones and probably enhance its recruitment success.     

Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM,CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice

WARM (Water Accounting Rice Model) simulates paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.), based on temperature-driven development and radiation-driven crop growth. It also simulates: biomass partitioning, floodwater effect on temperature, spikelet sterility, floodwater and chemicals management, and soil hydrology. Biomass estimates from WARM were evaluated and compared with the ones from two generic crop models (CropSyst, WOFOST). The test-area was the Po Valley (Italy). Data collected at six sites from 1989 to 2004 from rice crops grown under flooded and non-limiting conditions were split into a calibration (to estimate some model parameters) and a validation set. For model evaluation, a fuzzy-logic based multiple-metrics indicator (MQI) was used: 0 (best) ≤ MQI ≤ 1 (worst). WARM estimates compared well with the actual data (mean MQI = 0.037 against 0.167 and 0.173 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). On an average, the three models performed similarly for individual validation metrics such as modelling efficiency (EF > 0.90) and correlation coefficient (R > 0.98). WARM performed best in a weighed measure of the Akaike Information Criterion: (worst) 0<wk<1$0<w_k<1$ (best), considering estimation accuracy and number of parameters required to achieve it (mean wk=0.983$w_k=0.983$ against 0.007 and ∼0.000 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). WARM results were sensitive to 30% of the model parameters (ratio being lower with both CropSyst, <10%, and WOFOST, <20%), but appeared the easiest model to use because of the lowest number of crop parameters required (10 against 15 and 34 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). This study provides a concrete example of the possibilities offered using a range of assessment metrics to evaluate model estimates, predictive capabilities, and complexity.     

A combined ecosystem and value chain modeling approach for evaluating societal cost and benefit of fishing

We describe a combined ecological and economic approach aimed at giving more equal emphasis to both disciplines, while being integrated so that design, analysis, data entry and storage, and result capabilities are developed with emphasis on deriving a user-friendly, easily accessible tool. We have thus developed the approach as an integrated module of the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim scientific software; the world's most widely applied ecological modeling tool. We link the trophic ecosystem model to a value-chain approach where we explicitly and in considerable detail keep track of the flow (amounts, revenue, and costs) of fish products from sea through to the end consumer. We also describe the social aspects of the fish production and trade, by evaluating employment and income diagnostics. This is done with emphasis on distribution income while accounting for social aspects of the fishing sector. From a management perspective, one of the interesting aspects of the approach we introduce here, is that it opens for direct evaluation of what impact management interventions, e.g., quota settings, effort regulation, or area closures, may have on the ecosystem, the economy and the social setting, as well as on food availability for the consumer.     

有机肥与化肥的生产能耗、投入成本和环境效益比较分析——以污泥堆肥生产有机肥为例

针对目前国内肥料生产和施用现状,分别从能耗、成本和污染物排放等三个方面对有机肥和化肥进行比较分析。化肥生产呈现高能耗和高污染排放,而有机肥则表现为低能耗、无污染的特点,同时还可消纳废弃物,减轻污染负荷。从投入成本上分析,化肥相对于有机肥具有一定优势,其单位面积和折纯养分投入分别是有机肥的53%和26%。有机肥相对于化肥,其污染物排放负荷很低。从节能减排和降低投入的角度,提出支持基于废弃物资源化的有机肥产业化发展。     

Air lead,blood lead and travel by car

Evidence on the relevance of lead in petrol to lead in blood has come from two main sources. Cross sectional studies of blood lead levels in population samples and in the air to which they are exposed suggest that petrol makes only a very small contribution. However longitudinal studies in the USA in which changes in lead levels in petrol and changes in blood lead have been studied suggest that petrol makes a substantial contribution to blood lead. The possibility that this discrepancy might be explained by the exposure of subjects to very high levels of lead when travelling in motor vehicles is examined, and rejected.     

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.     

Separability, partial demand systems, and consumer's surplus measures

In practice, complete demand systems are not estimated. Rather, either an incomplete demand system is estimated, or separability is invoked and a partial demand system is estimated. This paper considers the relationship between the conventional compensating variation (equivalent variation) and the corresponding welfare measure that can be derived from a partial demand system and the current budget allocation to the separable group. Even assuming the separability assumption invoked is appropriate, these partial measures provide, in general, only a limited amount of information about the compensating variation and no information about the equivalent variation. Great care is therefore needed when using partial welfare measures to evaluate policy.     

Renewable electricity policies,heterogeneity, and cost effectiveness

Renewable electricity policies promote investment in renewable electricity generators and have become increasingly common around the world. Because of intermittency and the composition of other generators in the power system, the value of certain renewable – particularly wind and solar – varies across locations and technologies. This paper investigates the implications of this heterogeneity for the cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies. A simple model of the power system shows that renewable electricity policies cause different investment mixes. Policies also differ according to their effect on electricity prices, and both factors cause the cost effectiveness to vary across policies. We use a detailed, long-run planning model that accounts for intermittency on an hourly basis to compare the cost effectiveness for a range of policies and alternative parameter assumptions. The differences in cost effectiveness are economically significant, where broader policies, such as an emissions price, outperform renewable electricity policies.     

Site rent,air quality,and the demand for amenities

There has been considerable debate as to the information contained in the coefficients of a cross-sectional regression of site rent on air quality. Much of the confusion surrounding the analysis of the relationships (a) between air quality changes and property value changes, (b) between property value changes and benefits derived from quality changes, and (c) between the estimated cross-sectional coefficients and all of the above, can be cleared up by a discussion of the meaning of the hedonic equation. In that context, the implications for demand analysis are clarified.     

Lose some, save some: Obesity, automobile demand, and gasoline consumption

This paper examines the unexplored link between the prevalence of overweight and obesity and vehicle demand in the United States. Exploring annual sales data of new passenger vehicles at the model level in 48 U.S. counties from 1999 to 2005, we find that new vehicles demanded by consumers are less fuel-efficient on average as a larger share of people become overweight or obese. The OLS results show that a 10 percentage point increase in obesity and overweight reduces the average MPG of new vehicles demanded by 1.4 percent, an effect requiring a 12 cent increase in gasoline prices to counteract. The 2SLS results after controlling for possible endogeneity in overweight and obesity prevalence put those two numbers at 5 percent and 54 cent, respectively. These findings, robust to a variety of specifications, suggest that policies to reduce overweight and obesity can have additional benefits for energy security and the environment.     

Growth pattern of the sea urchin, Loxechinus albus (Molina, 1782) in southern Chile: evaluation of growth models

The growth pattern of Loxechinus albus in southern Chile was studied using size-at-age data obtained by reading growth bands on the genital plates. The scatter plots of sizes-at-age for samples collected in three different locations indicated that growth is linear between ages 2 and 10. Five different growth models, including linear, asymptotic and non-asymptotic functions, were fitted to the data, and model selection was conducted based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The AIC identified the Tanaka model as the most suitable for two of the three sites. However, the BIC led to the selection of the linear model for all zones. Our results show that the growth pattern of L. albus is different from the predominantly asymptotic pattern that has been reported for other sea urchin species.     

Experimental analysis of food detection in capuchin monkeys: effects of distance, travel speed, and resource size

Knowing how far away animals can detect food has important consequences for understanding their foraging and social behaviors. As part of a broader set of field experiments on primate foraging behavior, we set out artificial feeding platforms (90 × 90 cm or 50 × 50 cm) throughout the home range of one group of 22 brown capuchin monkeys, at sites where they had not seen such platforms previously. Whenever the group approached such a new platform to within 100 m, we recorded the group's direction and speed of approach, and the identity and distance from the platform of the group member that detected the platform or came closest to it without detecting it. We used logistic regression on these data to examine the effects of group movement speed, platform size and height, and focal individual age and sex on the probability of detecting the platform as a function of distance. Likelihood of detecting a platform decreased significantly at greater distances – the probability of detecting a platform reached 0.5 at 41 m from the group's center and 25.5 m from the nearest group member. These results show that detectability of platforms by the entire group (9 adults, 13 juveniles) was less than twice that for single group members. Detectability at a given distance decreased severely as the group moved faster; at their fastest speed, individuals had to approach a platform to within less than 10 m to find it. The large platforms were significantly more likely to be detected than the small ones, suggesting that increased use of larger food patches by wild primates may not necessarily reflect foraging preferences. Received: 20 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 5 April 1997     

The relationships among tourism development,energy demand,and growth factors in developed and developing countries

The objective of the study is to explore the different factors that affect tourism development in the panel of 34 developed and developing countries, over the period of 2005–2013. Energy consumption, air pollution, health expenditures, and economic growth played a vital role to change tourism development indicators in the region. The results confirmed the long-run association between the energy, environment, growth, and tourism indicators in the panel of selected 34 countries. The results of fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) indicate that health expenditures have a positive relationship with the tourism indicators, while energy consumption exerts a negative association with the tourism indicators in the region. The results of dynamic ordinary least squares regression also confirmed the same results of FMOLS regarding health expenditures and energy consumption, that is, positive and negative impacts on the tourism indicators. However, carbon dioxide emissions exert a positive relationship with the tourism indicators in the region.     

Maternal allocation in bison: co-occurrence of senescence, cost of reproduction, and individual quality

Parental allocation strategies are of profound interest in life history because they directly impact offspring fitness and therefore are highly valuable for understanding population dynamics and informing management decisions. Yet, numerous questions about reproductive allocation patterns for wild populations of large mammals remain unanswered because of the challenges for measuring allocation in the wild. Using a nine-year longitudinal data set on life-history traits of mother-calf bison pairs, we identified sources of variation in relative maternal allocation (calf mass ratio on mother mass) and assessed the occurrence of reproductive costs associated with differential maternal allocation. We found that heavy mothers provided a lower allocation but still produced heavier calves than light mothers. Older females produced lighter calves and tended to decrease allocation as they aged, supporting the occurrence of reproductive senescence. Mothers that had produced a calf the previous year produced lighter calves and allocated less than mothers that did not lactate the previous year, revealing reproductive costs. However, greater maternal allocation did not reduce the probability of breeding in successive years, and the amount of allocation provided by a mother was positively correlated among the offspring she produced, illustrating individual heterogeneity. Although life-history studies are usually classified as either supporting costs of reproduction or individual quality, our study demonstrates that these contrasting evolutionary forces can shape variation within a single trait. Our work illustrates that many processes can coevolve within a population, emphasizing the need to integrate multiple concepts to better understand the evolution of life-history traits. With regard to management of bison herds, if the goal of culling programs is to select for animals with the best performance, this research suggests that managers should account for the condition and previous reproductive status of mothers when taking culling decisions on juvenile bison.     

Space-time Bayesian small area disease risk models: development and evaluation with a focus on cluster detection

This paper extends the spatial local-likelihood model and the spatial mixture model to the space-time (ST) domain. For comparison, a standard random effect space-time (SREST) model is examined to allow evaluation of each model’s ability in relation to cluster detection. To pursue this evaluation, we use the ST counterparts of spatial cluster detection diagnostics. The proposed criteria are based on posterior estimates (e.g., misclassification rate) and some are based on post-hoc analysis of posterior samples (e.g., exceedance probability). In addition, we examine more conventional model fit criteria including mean square error (MSE). We illustrate the methodology with a real ST dataset, Georgia throat cancer mortality data for the years 1994–2005, and a simulated dataset where different levels and shapes of clusters are embedded. Overall, it is found that conventional SREST models fair well in ST cluster detection and in goodness-of-fit, while for extreme risk detection the local likelihood ST model does best.     

The evaluation strip: A new and robust method for plotting predicted responses from species distribution models

Increasing use is being made in conservation management of statistical models that couple extensive collections of species and environmental data to make predictions of the geographic distributions of species. While the relationships fitted between a species and its environment are relatively transparent for many of these modeling techniques, others are more ‘black box’ in character, only producing geographic predictions and providing minimal or untraditional summaries of the fitted relationships on which these predictions are based. This in turn prevents robust evaluation of the ecological sensibility of such models, a necessary process if model predictions are to be treated with confidence. Here we propose a new but simple method for visualizing modeled responses that can be implemented with any modeling method, and demonstrate its application using five common methods applied to the prediction of an Australian tree species. This is achieved by insetting an “evaluation strip” into the spatial data layers, which, after predictions have been made, can be clipped out and used for creating plots of the modelled responses. We present findings of the application strip for algorithms GLMs, GAMs, CLIM, DOMAIN and MARS. Evaluation strips can be constructed to investigate either uni-variate responses, or the simultaneous variation in predicted values in relation to two variables. The latter option is particularly useful for evaluating responses in models that allow the fitting of complex interaction terms.     

Demography, demand, death, and the seasonal allocation of labor in the Florida harvester ant (Pogonomyrmex badius)

As a self-organizing entity, an ant colony must divide a limited number of workers among numerous competing functions. Adaptive patterns of labor allocation should vary with colony need across each annual cycle, but remain almost entirely undescribed in ants. Allocation to foraging in 55 field colonies of the Florida harvester ant (Pogonomyrmex badius) followed a consistent annual pattern over 4 years. Foragers preceded larvae in spring and peaked during maximal larval production in summer (0.37). In spring, proportion foraging increased due to an increase in forager number and reduction in colony size, and in late summer, it decreased as colony size increased through new worker birth and a loss of ～3 % of foragers per day. The removal of 50 % of the forager population revealed that, at the expense of larval survival, colonies did not draw workers from other castes to fill labor gaps. To determine if labor allocation was age specific, whole colonies were marked with cuticle color-specific wire belts and released, and each cohort's time to first foraging was noted. Workers that eclosed in summer alongside sexual alates darkened quickly and became foragers at ～43 days of age, whereas autumn-born workers required 200 or more days to do so. Following colony reproduction, these long-lived individuals foraged alongside short-lived, summer-born sisters during the next calendar year. Therefore, the large-scale, predictable patterns of labor allocation in P. badius appear to be driven by bimodal worker development rate and age structure, rather than worker responsiveness to changes in colony demand.     

Age,stages, and the role of generation time in matrix models

The earliest matrix models, proposed in the 1940s, consider age classes, and were later proved to be equivalent to the discrete time version of the stable population theory. In this theory and models, besides the asymptotic growth rate, a very important characteristic is the turnover of individuals, measured in various ways by generation time. Models considering stages, on the contrary, do not take into account the age of individuals and seem largely preferable to age-structured models for many populations in which demographic characteristics are related to biological stages (such a seed, rosette, flowering plant, etc.) rather than to age per itself. These two kinds of models can be embedded as particular cases of stage by age models or multistate models. Theses general models can be used to develop a multistate stable population theory with many advantages. This general theory is reviewed with emphasis on general rules for sensitivity analyses in which generation time plays a central role.     

Remote sensing of crop production in China by production efficiency models: models comparisons,estimates and uncertainties

Regional estimates or prediction of crop production is critical for many applications such as agricultural lands management, food security warning system, food trade policy and carbon cycle research. Remote sensing offers great potential for regional production monitoring and estimates, yet uncertainties associated with are rarely addressed. Moreover, although crops are one of critical biomes in global carbon cycle research, few evidences are available on the performance of global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in estimating regional crop NPP. In this study, we use high quality weather and crop data to calibrate model parameter, validate and compare two kinds of remote sensing based production efficiency models, i.e. the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and Global Production Efficiency Model Version 2.0 (GLO-PEM2), in estimating maize production across China. Results show that both models intend to underestimate maize yields, although they also overestimate maize yields much at some regions. There are no significant differences between the results from CASA and GLO-PEM2 models in terms of both estimated production and spatial pattern. CASA model simulates better in the areas with dense crop and weather data for calibration. Otherwise GLO-PEM2 model does better. Whether the water soil-moisture down-regulator is used or not should depend on the percent of irrigation lands at the regions. The improved and validated models can be used for many applications. Further improvement can be expected by increasing remote sensing image resolution and the number of surface data stations.