Generation time and the maximum growth rate for populations with age-specific fecundities and unknown juvenile survival

In age-classified population models where all parameters are known, the generation time and growth rate are calculated in a straightforward manner. For many populations, some parameters, such as juvenile survival, are difficult to estimate accurately. In a simplified population model where fecundity and survival are constant from the onset of breeding, it is known that generation time may be calculated given only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the population growth rate. However, the assumption of constant fecundity from the onset of breeding does not hold for many populations. An extended population model allows calculation of generation time with the additional knowledge of the ratio of age-specific fecundities compared to a maximum fecundity rate. When these relative fecundities are unknown, an ad hoc adjustment to the simplified model performs well.When the study population is in an ideal environment, the optimal generation time and maximum growth rate are linked, and both may be approximated knowing only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the relative fecundities. The maximum growth rate has important conservation implications, and calculating it correctly is therefore important. Improper use of the simplified population model to calculate the maximum growth rate, combined with a simple decision rule, leads to an average overharvest of 36%, and >60% for three of six bird species studied, compared to the full population model. By comparison, using the approximation from the extended or adjusted models results in average overharvests of only 8% (extended model) and 5% (adjusted model), and <50% for all six species (either model).     

Cost-Effective Management Alternatives for Snake River Chinook Salmon: a Biological-Economic Synthesis

Abstract: The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource‐management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological‐economic trade‐offs in recovery of Snake River spring‐ and summer‐run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon‐passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age‐structured matrix model to predict long‐term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost‐effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least‐cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon‐management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost‐effective and generally increased long‐term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost‐effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost‐effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80–90% of management alternatives from the cost‐effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science‐based policy and management.     

Modified Weibull multi-state models for the analysis of animal carcinogenicity data

The Peto test is the standard method of analysis used in carcinogenicity studies to compare tumor incidence in groups of animals. It assumes that tumors are either instantly fatal or have no effect on mortality and requires a judgement of the lethality of each tumor. To avoid this requirement, parametric multi-state models have been proposed. In addition these allow estimation of tumor onset and mortality rates. This paper considers two such models and presents a modification. It is shown that the modified models provide a better fit to carcinogenicity data and simulated data are used to show that the modified models provide a modest increase in test power relative to the Peto test.     

A health risk assessment for fluoride in Central Europe

Like many elements, fluorine (which generally occurs in nature as fluoride) is beneficial to human health in trace amounts, but can be toxic in excess. The links between low intakes of fluoride and dental protection are well known; however, fluoride is a powerful calcium-seeking element and can interfere with the calcified structure of bones and teeth in the human body at higher concentrations causing dental or skeletal fluorosis. One of the main exposure routes is via drinking water and the World Health Organisation currently sets water quality guidelines for the element. In Central Europe, groundwater resources that exceed the guideline value of 1.5 mg l⁻¹ are widespread and effects on health of high fluoride in water have been reported. The aim of the current project was to develop a geographic information system (GIS) to aid the identification of areas where high-fluoride waters and fluorosis may be a problem; hence, where water treatment technologies should be targeted. The development of the GIS was based upon the collation and digitisation of existing information relevant to fluoride risk in Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary and Slovakia assembled for the first time in a readily accessible form. In addition, geochemistry and health studies to examine in more detail the relationships between high-fluoride drinking waters and health effects in the population were carried out in Moldova and Ukraine demonstrating dental fluorosis prevalence rates of 60–90% in adolescents consuming water containing 2–7 mg l⁻¹ fluoride.     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序 ;论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点 ;认为应用网络技术 ,建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系 ,可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

An individual-oriented model for ecological risk assessment of wading birds

The contribution of certain contaminants to reproductive failure in many avian species has been an ongoing concern. Appropriate quantitative techniques have focused either on the individual organisms by providing explicit bioaccumulation dynamics or on whole ecosystems by looking at the fate of the contaminant but fail to make the necessary link via population dynamics of interacting individuals. We used the individual-oriented approach in an effort to quantify effects of chronic contaminant exposure on individual birds. This was made possible by the use of an object-oriented model, where individual birds are interacting objects, and their actions are implemented by passing to them appropriate messages. Using this modeling approach a breeding colony of Great Blue Herons (Ardea herodias) is simulated as an assemblage of interacting individuals whose daily actions (foraging, growth, feeding of the young) are simultaneously followed over short time intervals for a nesting season. Spatial distribution of the contaminants in prey resources is used on a cell by cell basis and their effects on certain behavior characteristics of adult birds (e.g. foraging efficiency, effects on flying efficiency, parental care) are taken into account. Results showed that sublethal effects could have a considerable effect on colony success. Appropriate selection of endpoints for risk assessment yields a variety of scenarios for colony success.     

铅暴露对人体健康风险评价的模型综述

铅是一种在暴露环境下,可以通过手口途径或者皮肤接触而进入人体,从而对人体许多组织器官都产生毒性作用的重金属,其对儿童的危害尤为突出.我国对暴露在铅环境下人体健康的风险评价研究起步较晚,基于血铅指标的铅污染土壤风险评估方法导则仍在探讨建立中.而国外已经存在一些较为成熟的用于成人及儿童的铅暴露吸收和生物动力学模型,其中被广泛接受和使用的是成人血铅模型(ALM)以及儿童在铅中的综合暴露吸收生物动力学模型(IEUBK).前者描述了关于非居住区土壤中铅暴露物对成人风险的评估,且重点针对污染土壤的铅暴露物所导致的孕妇体内胎儿的血铅浓度进行评估;后者则重点预测6—84个月的儿童在铅的综合暴露下的健康风险.本文旨在通过对这些模型进行对比总结,从而提出可用于我国铅污染风险评估的理论依据及指导方法.     

Modeling and risk assessment for soil temperatures beneath prescribed forest fires

Prescribed fire is a management tool used by wildland resource management organizations in many ecosystems to reduce hazardous fuels and to achieve a host of other objectives. To study the effects of fire in naturally accumulating fuel conditions, the ambient soil temperature is monitored beneath prescribed burns. In this study we developed a stochastic model for temperature profiles (values at 15 minute intervals) recorded at four depths beneath the soil during a large prescribed burn study. The model was used to assess the temporal fit of the data to particular solutions of the heat equation. We used a random effects model to assess the effects of observed site characteristics on maximum temperatures and to estimate risks of temperatures exceeding critical levels in future similar prescribed fires. Contour plots of estimated risks of temperatures exceeding 60°C for a range of fuel levels and soil depths indicated high risks of occurrence, especially when the moisture levels are low. However, the natural variability among sites seems to be large, even after controlling fuel and moisture levels, resulting in large standard errors of predicted risks.     

Toxic equivalency factor approach for risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

The toxic equivalency factor (TEF) method has been developed to evaluate structurally related compounds, sharing a common mechanism of action. Because certain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) appear to fit this requirement and are ubiquitous environmental contaminants, these compounds are TEF candidates. Toxicity is often expressed relative to benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), the reference standard (e.g., TEF = EC50_BaP/EC50_PAH). BaP‐like toxicity or toxic equivalents (TEQs) can then be calculated: TEQ = S(PAH _i × TEF _i ), where PAH _i and TEF _i are the concentration and TEF, respectively, for individual PAH congeners. Representative TEFs for PAHs were compiled from studies measuring carcinogenic potency and surrogate biomarkers. This review examines the application of TEFs to PAHs with established criteria (i.e., demonstrated need, defined chemical grouping, broad toxicological database, endpoint consistency, additivity, common mechanism of action, consensus). Although all criteria are not satisfied (e.g., endpoint inconsistency, nonadditivity) and more rigorous validation studies are needed, the TEF method is useful when limitations are recognized. Refinements of the method might include incorporation of pharmacokinetic factors and segregation of TEFs derived from mammalian vs. nonmammalian systems to increase endopoint consistency. Probabilistic analysis may also prove useful to assess the range of TEF values reported both within and between human health and ecological risk assessments.     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

Modeling and interpreting the accuracy assessment error matrix for a doubly classified map

This paper considers two maps having the same spatial extent and the same mapping categories but where each map is subject to classification error. An overlay of the maps yields a (dis)similarity matrix whose (i, j)-entry is the areal proportion placed into category i by the first map and into category j by the second map. A parametric model, called the latent truth model, is proposed which specifies the dissimilarity matrix in terms of the true (but unknown) proportions for the mapping categories as well as the unknown error rates for the two maps. The number of parameters in the model exceeds the degrees of freedom in the dissimilarity matrix. However, a method of regularization is applied to effectively reduce the dimension of the parameter space and to permit model fitting. From the fitted model, one obtains estimates for the true mapping proportions as well as estimated error matrices for each of the maps. Accuracy assessment characteristics for each map (such as user's accuracy, producer's accuracy, overall accuracy, and the kappa coefficient) can be computed from the estimated error matrices. Methods are illustrated with two landcover maps of Wicomico County, Maryland.     

Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species’ distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11–13% for all species combined (14–15% for mammals, 7–8% for birds, and 12–15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one‐time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded.     

Health risk assessment maps for arsenic groundwater content: application of national geochemical databases

This investigation assesses the feasibility of calculating and visualizing health risk estimates from exposure to groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As) using data from national geochemical databases. The potential health risk associated with As-contaminated groundwater was assessed based on an elaboration of existing geochemical data in accordance with accepted methodological procedures established for human health risk assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency methodology). A screening analysis approach was used for estimating the contribution of As to the total chronic health risk from exposure to groundwater contaminated with potentially toxic elements, including As, Ba, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn, and the results indicate that As contributes significantly (>50%) to this total health chronic risk in about 10% of Slovak territory. Based on the calculation of the potential risk level by exposure modelling, increased chronic as well as carcinogenic risk levels (medium to high) were documented in approximately 0.2 and 11% of the total Slovak area, respectively. The areas characterized by high health risk levels are mainly those geogenically contaminated. High and very high carcinogenic risk was determined in 34 of 79 districts and in 528 of 2924 municipalities.     

Cadmium-hazard mapping using a general linear regression model (Irr-Cad) for rapid risk assessment

Research undertaken over the last 40 years has identified the irrefutable relationship between the long-term consumption of cadmium (Cd)-contaminated rice and human Cd disease. In order to protect public health and livelihood security, the ability to accurately and rapidly determine spatial Cd contamination is of high priority. During 2001–2004, a General Linear Regression Model Irr-Cad was developed to predict the spatial distribution of soil Cd in a Cd/Zn co-contaminated cascading irrigated rice-based system in Mae Sot District, Tak Province, Thailand (Longitude E 98°59′–E 98°63′ and Latitude N 16°67′–16°66′). The results indicate that Irr-Cad accounted for 98% of the variance in mean Field Order total soil Cd. Preliminary validation indicated that Irr-Cad ‘predicted’ mean Field Order total soil Cd, was significantly (p < 0.001) correlated (R ² = 0.92) with ‘observed’ mean Field Order total soil Cd values. Field Order is determined by a given field's proximity to primary outlets from in-field irrigation channels and subsequent inter-field irrigation flows. This in turn determines Field Order in Irrigation Sequence (Field Order^IS). Mean Field Order total soil Cd represents the mean total soil Cd (aqua regia-digested) for a given Field Order^IS. In 2004–2005, Irr-Cad was utilized to evaluate the spatial distribution of total soil Cd in a ‘high-risk’ area of Mae Sot District. Secondary validation on six randomly selected field groups verified that Irr-Cad predicted mean Field Order total soil Cd and was significantly (p < 0.001) correlated with the observed mean Field Order total soil Cd with R ² values ranging from 0.89 to 0.97. The practical applicability of Irr-Cad is in its minimal input requirements, namely the classification of fields in terms of Field Order^IS, strategic sampling of all primary fields and laboratory based determination of total soil Cd (T-Cd_P) and the use of a weighed coefficient for Cd (Coeff_W). The use of primary fields as the basis for Irr-Cad is also an important practical consideration due to their inherent ease of identification and vital role in the classification of fields in terms of Field Order^IS. The inclusion of mean field order soil pH (1:5_water) to the Irr-Cad model accounted for over 79% of the variation in mean Field Order bio-available (DTPA (diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid)-extractable) soil Cd. Rice is the staple food of countries of the Greater Mekong Sub-region (includes Vietnam, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand and Yunnan Province, China). These countries also have actively and historically mined Zn, Pb, and Cu deposits where Cd is likely to be a potential hazard if un-controlled discharge/runoff enters areas of rice cultivation. As such, it is envisaged that the Irr-Cad model could be applied for Cd hazard assessment and effectively form the basis of intervention options and policy decisions to protect public health, livelihoods, and export security.     

An ecological risk assessment model for a pulsed contaminant emission into a wetland channel flow

As a continuation of the modelling on ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of pollutant emission into an idealized two-dimensional free-surface wetland flow (Zeng, L., Chen, G.Q., 2009b. Ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of contaminant in wetland. Ecol. Model., doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.024), an ecological risk assessment model for the typical case of a pulsed contaminant emission into a realistic three-dimensional wetland channel flow is presented in this paper for the fate of cross-sectional mean concentration under environmental dispersion. An environmental dispersion model for the mean concentration is devised as an extension of Taylor’s classical analysis on dispersion in fluid flows. The velocity distribution and the environmental dispersivity in the fully developed steady flow through the wetland is found and illustrated with limiting cases covering various known solutions for the porous media flow between parallel plates, flow in a shallow wetland, sweeping flow in a densely vegetated wetland, and single phase flow in a channel. Obtained by Aris’s method of moments, the environmental dispersivity is shown characterized with multi-scale asymptotic time variations with stem dominated stage, transitional stage, and width-depth-stem dominated stage. Based on the solution for the evolution of contaminant cloud in the wetland channel flow, critical length and duration of the contaminant cloud with concentration beyond given environmental standard level are concretely illustrated for typical pollutant constituents in wastewater emission. Under the same emission intensity and environmental standard, the duration of contaminant cloud in the wetland channel is revealed shorter than that in a free surface wetland, due to the lateral effect.     

基于盲数的水体沉积物潜在生态风险评价方法

基于生态风险评价系统中多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的特性,将盲数理论应用于水体沉积物潜在生态风险的评价研究。在将Hakanson潜在生态风险指数模型参数定义为盲参数的基础上,建立了沉积物潜在生态风险评价的盲数模型,并提出了污染程度和潜在生态风险等级识别盲数可靠性计算模型。根据上述盲数模型,不仅可以得到沉积物污染程度和潜在生态风险的可能取值区间,也可以得到各区间相应的可信度水平,进而定量计算待评价对象隶属于各评价等级的主观可能性大小。作为案例,将上述模型应用于巢湖十五里河河口沉积物中重金属潜在生态风险评价的研究。在得到沉积物中单个重金属污染物(Hg,Cd,Pb,Cu,Cr)隶属于污染程度各等级和潜在生态风险各等级可信度水平的基础上,得出十五里河河口处于较高生态风险水平的结论,相应的可信度为0.626。实例研究表明,以盲数理论评价沉积物的潜在生态风险,理论上可行,评价结论可信。     

江苏沿海化工快速发展下区域生态风险评价模型研究

区域生态风险评价是区域建立生态风险预警机制,实现有效生态风险管理的基础,而其中区域生态风险评价模型的构建是关键。本研究在分析江苏沿海化工风险源及危害性、风险受体以及风险相应能力的基础上,根据科学性、可操作性、动态性与静态性相结合、定性与定量相结合以及因地制宜的原则,选取代表性强、表征明显、简明且易于统计量化的要素和因子,在传统数学模式的基础上,运用系统动力学、景观生态学以及GIS分析、引入区域化工风险压力、化工园区风险度、区域环境敏感指数等指数,采用Delphi、AHP法构建了包括化工风险压力指数、区域环境状态指数、区域生态风险管理指数的区域化工生态风险的多指标综合评价模型。建立的评价模型为研究区域尺度政策实施的生态风险状态及发展趋势提供了一种思路。     

A concise review of ecological risk assessment for urban ecosystem application associated with rapid urbanization processes

ABSTRACT

Urban ecological risk (UER) caused by rapid urbanization means potential threat to urban ecosystem structure, pattern and services. The scales of ecological risk assessment (ERA) have been expanded from individual organisms to watersheds and regions. The types of stressor range from chemical to physical, biological and natural events. However, the application of ERA in urban ecosystems is relatively new. Here, we summarize the progress of urban ERA and propose an explicit framework to illumine future ERA based on UER identification, analysis, characterization, modeling, projection and early warning and management. The summary includes six urban ERA-relevant methods: weight-of-evidence (WoE), procedure for ecological tiered assessment of risks (PETAR), relative risk model (RRM), multimedia, multi-pathway, multi-receptor risk assessment (3MRA), landscape analysis and ecological models. Furthermore, we review critical cases of urban ERA in landscape ecology, soil, air, water and solid waste. Based on the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing, an urban ERA management platform integrates various urban ERA methodologies that can be developed to provide better implementation strategies of UER for urban ecosystem managers and stakeholders. We develop a conceptual model of urban ERA based on the urban characteristics in China. The future applications of urban ERA include uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques on the basis of geospatial techniques and comprehensive urban ERA using nonlinear models or process models.     

Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland fire risk for several regions of Spain. After defining the conceptual scheme for fire risk assessment, the paper describes the methods used to generate the risk parameters, and presents proposals for their integration into synthetic risk indices. The generation of the input variables was based on an extensive use of geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, since the project was intended to provide a spatial and temporal assessment of risk conditions. All variables were mapped at 1 km² spatial resolution, and were integrated into a web-mapping service system. This service was active in the summer of 2007 for semi-operational testing of end-users. The paper also presents the first validation results of the danger index, by comparing temporal trends of different danger components and fire occurrence in the different study regions.