Identifying the land use and land cover change drivers: methods and case studies of two forest reserves in Northern Benin

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is one of the problems that the world has been facing for the last few decades despite political attention....     

Temporal patterns of road network development in the Brazilian Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is a globally important ecosystem that is undergoing rapid development and land-use change. Roads are a key spatial determinant of land-use conversion and strongly influence the rates and patterns of habitat loss and represent a key component of models that attempt to predict the spatio-temporal patterns of Amazonian land-use change and the consequences of such changes. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of road network development are poorly understood and seldom quantified. Here, we used manually digitised satellite imagery at multiple temporal and spatial scales across the Brazilian Amazon to quantify and model the rate at which road networks are proliferating. We found that the road network grew by almost 17,000 km per year between 2004 and 2007. There was large spatial variation in road network density, with some municipalities having road densities as high as 0.5 km/km², and road network growth rates were highest in municipalities with an intermediate road network density. Simulations indicated that road network development within municipalities follows a logistic growth pattern through time, with most of the development occurring within a 39-year time period. This time period is similar to those of other boom and bust development dynamics observed in the Brazilian Amazon. Understanding the temporal patterns of road development will aid the development of better predictive land-use change models for the Amazon, given the key importance of roads as a predictor of deforestation in many existing models.     

Linking satellite-based forest cover change with rainfall and land surface temperature in Kerala,India

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Forest cover change is having an enduring link with climatic factors. This study was designed to study the impact of forest cover change in the Western...     

Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

This study quantified land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Pearl River Delta (PRD) of South China and its impact on regional climate over the last two decades. The LULC change analyses were accomplished by applying a change detection method to a set of Landsat imagery and ancillary data acquired from 1970s to 2000. The results indicate that the urban expansion is the prevailing LULC change in the PRD. Impact of LULC change on regional climate was simulated by using a mesoscale climate model. Two different land cover datasets circa 1990 and 2000 were input to the model to investigate the impact of urbanization on regional weather and climate condition in summer 2005. The simulation results show that rapid urban expansion can substantially alter regional climate conditions in the PRD region including monthly mean temperature, precipitation, moisture, and surface heat fluxes.     

Land use and land cover change affecting habitat distribution in the Segara Anakan lagoon, Java, Indonesia

This study quantifies and spatially characterizes land use and land cover changes in the Segara Anakan lagoon (SAL), Java, Indonesia, from 1987–2006. Classification of four satellite (SPOT) images from the years 1987, 1995, 2004 and 2006 and field ground truth data from 2004 and 2005 were used for map generation. The results show major changes in the western area of the SAL, with large area increases of rice fields, dry land agriculture, aquaculture and rural areas, and decreases in mangrove cover, mud flat and lagoon area. In the eastern area, minor decreases in mangrove area and increase in aquaculture, rural and industrial areas were also observed. Changes are due to the filling of the lagoon with riverine sediments derived from the hinterland and to mangrove conversion and resources exploitation. The results of this study provide basic information which is required for developing measures towards a sustainable management and conservation of the SAL.     

Evaluating land cover change and its impact on hydrological regime in Upper Shire river catchment, Malawi

A study was conducted to investigate hydrological impacts of land cover changes in the degradation of the hydrological on flow regimes of the Upper Shire river, Malawi. Remote sensing techniques were used to inventory temporal changes of land cover changes in the catchment. Hydrological data were analyzed to reveal the alterations and trends for two periods; 1989 and 2002. The study revealed significant changes in magnitude and direction that have occurred in the catchment between 1989 and 2002, mainly in areas of human habitation. Trends in land cover change in the Upper Shire river catchment depict land cover transition from woodlands to mostly cultivated/grazing and built-up areas. The land cover mapping showed that 23% of the land was covered by agricultural land in 1989. Subsistence agricultural area has increased by 18%, occupying 41% of the study area in 2002. The effects of the derived land cover changes on river flow in the Upper Shire river were investigated using the semi distributed soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. River flows were found to be highly variable and sensitive to land cover changes. Simulation results show that 2002 land cover data produces higher flow peaks and faster travel times compared to the 1989 land cover data. The changes detected indicate the effects of land use pressure in the catchment. The study highlights the importance of considering effects of land use and land cover changes on ecosystems, and water resources for an informed decision on proper catchment planning and management.     

Impacts of predicted sea level rise on land use/land cover categories of the adjacent coastal areas of Mumbai megacity,India

Physical and ecological responses of the coastal areas in the vicinity of Mumbai, India, due to relative sea level rise are examined by different inundation scenarios. Evaluation of potential habitat loss under sea level rise was made by incorporating the land use/land cover (LULC) adopted from the digital elevation model with the satellite imagery. LULC categories overlaid on 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 m coastal elevation showed that the coastal areas of Mumbai were mostly covered by vegetation followed by barren land, agricultural land, urban areas and water bodies. For the relative sea level rise scenarios of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 m, the tidal inundation areas were estimated to be 257.85, 385.58, 487.56 and 570.63 km², respectively, using GIS techniques. The losses of urban areas were also estimated at 25.32, 41.64, 54.61 and 78.86 km² for the 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 m relative sea level rise, respectively, which is most alarming information for the most populated city on the eastern coast of India. The results conclude that relative sea level rise scenario will lead profound impacts on LULC categories as well as on coastal features and landforms in the adjoining part of Mumbai. The sea level rise would also reduce the drainage gradients that promote flooding condition to rainstorms and subsequently increase saltwater intrusion into coastal regions. Alterations in the coastal features and landforms correlated with inundation characteristics that make the coastal region more vulnerable in the coming decades due to huge development activities and population pressures in Mumbai.     

Erratum to: Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

Regional Environmental Change -     

Integration, synthesis and climate change adaptation: a narrative based on coastal wetlands at the regional scale

The idea that integration and synthesis are critical for designing climate change adaptation and mitigation is well entrenched conceptually. Here, we review the concepts of adaptation, synthesis and integration and apply them to the case study of coastal wetlands in South East Queensland, Australia. The distribution and condition of coastal wetlands will change as climate changes. This will create conservation challenges and economic costs, but these can be minimised by drawing from a broad sectoral perspective in undertaking adaptation planning and by ensuring integration into policy. Our review indicates that adaptations to sea level rise that are focussed on wetland and biodiversity conservation are likely to have impacts for urbanisation patterns. Planning regulations that provide spatial buffering around wetlands may give rise to more compact urban forms that may lead to reductions in the cost of defence against sea level rise, reduce energy usage per person and provide more green space. However, more compact urban forms could exacerbate heat island effects and place greater burden on the economically disadvantaged as, for example, single-family homes become more expensive. Planning for climate change needs to balance these equity and cross-sectoral issues in order to reduce the likelihood of unforeseen negative consequences.     

Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.     

The social viability and environmental sustainability of direct action land reform settlements in the Amazon

State-led agrarian reform (SLAR) settlements established in the Amazon in the 1970s led to environmental degradation and mixed socioeconomic outcomes. More recently, direct-action land reform (DALR) settlements have proliferated, which are leading to new forest clearing in the name of agrarian reform. The emergence of DALR begs questions about social and environmental outcomes in recent Amazon settlements. This paper compares DALR settlements in two different regions of the eastern Amazon: the South of Pará and the Transamazon. Analysis of household survey data shows that DALR settlements in the two study areas differ substantially in terms of their histories of formation and regional contexts. However, social and environmental outcomes do not always differ among the two study areas, which in turn resemble older SLAR settlements.     

Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.     

Dynamics of land use land cover and its impact on carbon stocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: an overview

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Land use land cover change (LULCC) is a global environmental trend that plays a key role in worldwide environmental change and sustainable development....     

Uncertainty in the difference between maps of future land change scenarios

It is essential to measure whether maps of various scenarios of future land change are meaningfully different, because differences among such maps serve to inform land management. This paper compares the output maps of different scenarios of future land change in a manner that contrasts two different approaches to account for the uncertainty of the simulated projections. The simpler approach interprets the scenario storyline concerning the quantity of each land change transition as assumption, and then considers the range of possibilities concerning the value added by a simulation model that specifies the spatial allocation of land change. The more complex approach estimates the uncertainty of future land maps based on a validation measurement with historic data. The technique is illustrated by a case study that compares two scenarios of future land change in the Plum Island Ecosystems of northeastern Massachusetts, in the United States. Results show that if the model simulates only the spatial allocation of the land changes given the assumed quantity of each transition, then there is a clearly bounded range for the difference between the raw scenario maps; but if the uncertainties are estimated by validation, then the uncertainties can be so great that the output maps do not show meaningful differences. We discuss the implications of these results for a future research agenda of land change modeling. We conclude that a productive approach is to use the simpler method to distinguish clearly between variations in the scenario maps that are due to scenario assumptions versus variations due to the simulation model.     

Changing land use/cover patterns and implications for sustainable environmental management in the Irangi Hills,central Tanzania

This article examines the changes in land-use/cover types in the Irangi Hills, central Tanzania during the last 45 years and how such changes have influenced environmental and agricultural sustainability in the area. The spatial and temporal changes of land-use/cover were analysed through aerial photographs interpretation. Local perceptions and experiences of changes were addressed through household interviews and field observations. Results from this study show that during the last 45 years open and wooded grasslands, and other tree-cover types covered about 40% of the land area, ranging from 29% in 1960 to 43–45% between 1977 and 1992. Also, during the same period both the total area and spatial distribution of cultivated fields varied greatly. The cultivated area increased from 31% in 1977 to 35% in 1992, mainly due to agricultural expansion into areas formerly used for grazing and in sandy watercourses that shrunk by 55% between 1977 and 1992. The spatial distribution of the different land-use/cover types is influenced by variations in the scale of soil erosion and soil-conservation initiatives implemented in the Irangi Hills since the early 1970s. However, with increasing pressure on the land, and the declining capacity of the soil conservation authority, sustaining agricultural production in the area remains a major challenge.     

Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis

Land use and carbon emissions have long been a heated topic in China as well as developing countries. This paper contributes to the study of the related area as to investigate the causal relationship between the land urbanization quality and carbon emissions using panel data from 30 provinces in China over the period of 2004–2013. The empirical results show that: There exists bidirectional causality between land urbanization quality and carbon emissions across the country; land urbanization quality has negative effects on carbon emissions in all areas, with its effects largest in the Central region, followed by the Eastern, and the Western ranked at last; causal relationship exists in all regions, in addition to Eastern China; Central region has the highest potential of energy conservation. These findings provide new insights and valuable information for optimizing land use and urban development in China. In particular, to actively adjust the industrial structure, innovation in science and technology, and separate policy focus can contribute to energy conservation and urban land use.