Vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise

Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt’s economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.     

GIS ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE ROSETTA AREA, EGYPT TO IMPACTS OF SEA RISE

A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (slr). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise.Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings.Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands.     

National assessment of sea level rise using topographic and census data for Turkish coastal zone

Turkish coastal zone elevation to sea level rise was illustrated by using digital elevation model and Geographical information systems methods. It was intended to determine several parameters such as population, settlements, land use, wetlands, contribution to national agricultural production and taxes at risk by using high resolution SRTM topographic, orthorectified Landsat Thematic Mapper Mosaics and census data with GIS methods within 0-10 m elevation of national level. All parameters were examined for coastal cities, coastal districts, settlements and villages' status. As a result of the analysis of data set, it was found that approximately 7,319 km(2) of land area lies below 10 m contour line in Turkey, and is hence highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. 28 coastal cities, 191 districts and 181 villages or towns are located below 10 m contour line in study area. In the short term, for the struggle of negative impact of sea level rise, the findings suggest that the Ministry of Environment should declare new areas as protection areas and develop special environmental programs for national level.     

天津近岸海域水污染评价

为了认识天津近岸海域水质主要污染指标及污染物随年份的演变规律,根据1996年—2007年天津近岸海域水质监测数据,对天津近岸海域水污染状况进行了时空分析。结果表明,天津近岸海域水质总体呈恶化趋势,劣Ⅳ类海域面积比例呈增加趋势,主要污染因子为无机氮。提出,应确立治海先治陆的思想理念,建立陆源污染排放总量控制制度;加强对海上作业的管理,加强保护开发海域的生态环境。     

Monitoring the changing position of coastlines using aerial and satellite image data: an example from the eastern coast of Trabzon, Turkey

Coastline mapping and coastline change detection are critical issues for safe navigation, coastal resource management, coastal environmental protection, and sustainable coastal development and planning. Changes in the shape of coastline may fundamentally affect the environment of the coastal zone. This may be caused by natural processes and/or human activities. Over the past 30 years, the coastal sites in Turkey have been under an intensive restraint associated with a population press due to the internal and external touristic demand. In addition, urbanization on the filled up areas, settlements, and the highways constructed to overcome the traffic problems and the other applications in the coastal region clearly confirm an intensive restraint. Aerial photos with medium spatial resolution and high resolution satellite imagery are ideal data sources for mapping coastal land use and monitoring their changes for a large area. This study introduces an efficient method to monitor coastline and coastal land use changes using time series aerial photos (1973 and 2002) and satellite imagery (2005) covering the same geographical area. Results show the effectiveness of the use of digital photogrammetry and remote sensing data on monitoring large area of coastal land use status. This study also showed that over 161 ha areas were filled up in the research area and along the coastal land 12.2 ha of coastal erosion is determined for the period of 1973 to 2005. Consequently, monitoring of coastal land use is thus necessary for coastal area planning in order to protecting the coastal areas from climate changes and other coastal processes.     

全国近岸海域水质空间插值算法精度分析

空间插值技术对近海环境数据的分析和表征具有广泛应用价值,但目前针对各类模型适用性和精度比较的研究很少。基于2009年全国近岸海域299个站位的水质监测数据,利用交叉检验法,对3种插值算法13种模型的空间拟合结果进行分析和验证。结果表明,13种模型的模拟值与实测值显著相关(r=0.643~0.750,P0.01,n=299),说明其均适用于近岸海域水质的空间模拟;综合比较模拟结果与实测结果的相关系数、平均误差、平均绝对误差、均方差及偏离程度,排序为IDW(p2)Spline-TensionIDW(p3)IDW(p4)IDW(p1)IDW(p5)IDW(p6)Kriging-GuassianKriging-Spherical,Kriging-CircularKriging-LinearKriging-ExponentialSpline-Regularized,提出IDW(p2)是精度最优的空间插值模型。     

Land cover change of watersheds in Southern Guam from 1973 to 2001

Land cover change can be caused by human-induced activities and natural forces. Land cover change in watershed level has been a main concern for a long time in the world since watersheds play an important role in our life and environment. This paper is focused on how to apply Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) satellite image of 1973 and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite image of 2001 to determine the land cover changes of coastal watersheds from 1973 to 2001. GIS and remote sensing are integrated to derive land cover information from Landsat satellite images of 1973 and 2001. The land cover classification is based on supervised classification method in remote sensing software ERDAS IMAGINE. Historical GIS data is used to replace the areas covered by clouds or shadows in the image of 1973 to improve classification accuracy. Then, temporal land cover is utilized to determine land cover change of coastal watersheds in southern Guam. The overall classification accuracies for Landsat MSS image of 1973 and Landsat TM image of 2001 are 82.74% and 90.42%, respectively. The overall classification of Landsat MSS image is particularly satisfactory considering its coarse spatial resolution and relatively bad data quality because of lots of clouds and shadows in the image. Watershed land cover change in southern Guam is affected greatly by anthropogenic activities. However, natural forces also affect land cover in space and time. Land cover information and change in watersheds can be applied for watershed management and planning, and environmental modeling and assessment. Based on spatio-temporal land cover information, the interaction behavior between human and environment may be evaluated. The findings in this research will be useful to similar research in other tropical islands.     

江苏近岸海域富营养化现状评价与成因分析

应用综合污染指数法和富营养化指数法评价了2010年度江苏近岸海域水质状况。结果表明,50%的海水水质测点已显现出不同程度的富营养化迹象;影响江苏近岸海域的首要污染物为无机氮和活性磷酸盐,二者污染分担率之和近50%;现阶段造成江苏近岸海域水体富营养化的主要因素来源于入海河流和直排海污染源的氮磷输入,与"十五"末相比,全省主要入海河流TN排放量增长约284%,TP排放量增长约451%。     

Simulation of Wind Circulation and Pollutant Diffusion Over the Pearl River Delta Region

Changes in urban surface areas and population growth have significantly affected the weather and environment. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are increasing in the Pearl River Delta region. Nitrogen compounds emitted by factories and motor vehicles are the major sources of nitric pollution. To study the impacts of urbanization and the relationship between pollutant diffusion and the atmospheric environment, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale forecast model MM5 (v3.73), which was developed by Penn State University and the National Center of Atmospheric Research, and a mass continuity equation for air pollutants, were used in this study. Two experiments were designed. One experiment (BE) applied horizontal grid resolutions of 27, 9, 3, and 1?km in four nested domains. The other experiment adopted new land-use data (in domain 4) directly retrieved from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to replace the 1980s data of the United States Geological Survey in BE. A 48-h simulation (from 0000?UTC on 21 October to 0000?UTC on 23 October 2008) was conducted, with the first 12?h being the spin-up time and the remaining 36?h being the effective simulation, so as to capture the diurnal features of the thermally induced winds associated with the land–sea breeze and urban heat island circulations. The different results obtained from the two tests for wind circulation and air pollution dispersion and transportation in the Pearl River Delta region were analyzed. The simulated results show that the both experiments can well simulate land–sea breeze circulation and remarkable land–sea breeze evolution, comparing with observation data. The height of the PBL had a significant diurnal cycle. The structure of the wind field can obviously impact the dispersion of the NO _x in three dimensions. Nitrogen oxides mainly diffused along the dominant wind direction (east or southeast wind), therefore the majority of the pollutants accumulated in the northwest region of the fine domain in both simulation experiments. However, it induced the pollutants concentration in an irregular pattern due to the fine-resolution grid spaces and complicated inland wind field in the northwest area of the inner domain. Moreover, increasing the proportion of urban surface caused sensible heat flux increase, latent heat flux decrease and humility reducing relatively in the region of urban surface characteristics apparently. Urbanization will cause pollution accumulated severely over the urban surface.     

Groundwater stress and vulnerability in rural coastal aquifers under competing demands: a case study from Sri Lanka

Rural coastal aquifers are undergoing rapid changes due to increasing population, high water demand with expanding agricultural and domestic uses, and seawater intrusion due to unmanaged water pumping. The combined impact of these activities is the deterioration of groundwater quality, public health concerns, and unsustainable water demands. The Kalpitiya peninsula located northwest of Sri Lanka is one area undergoing such changes. This land area is limited and surrounded almost completely by sea and lagoon. This study consists of groundwater sampling and analysis, and vulnerability assessment using the DRASTIC method. The results reveal that the peninsula is experiencing multiple threats due to population growth, seawater intrusion, land use exploitation for intensive agriculture, groundwater vulnerability from agricultural and domestic uses, and potential public health impacts. Results show that nitrate is a prevalent and serious contaminant occurring in large concentrations (up to 128 mg/l NO₃?CN), while salinity from seawater intrusion produces high chloride content (up to 471 mg/l), affecting freshwater sources. High nitrate levels may have already affected public health based on limited sampling for methemoglobin. The two main sources of nitrogen loadings in the area are fertilizer and human excreta. The major source of nitrogen results from the use of fertilizers and poor management of intense agricultural systems where a maximum application rate of up to 11.21 metric tons N/km² per season is typical. These findings suggest that management of coastal aquifers requires an integrated approach to address both the prevalence of agriculture as an economic livelihood, and increasing population growth.     

Toxicity of Surficial Sediments from Sydney Harbour and Vicinity, Australia

The toxicological responses of three species to 103 surficial saltwater sediment samples from Sydney Harbour, and coastal lakes and estuaries on the south-east coast of New South Wales, Australia, were tested in a battery of four to six laboratory toxicity tests. This is the first large-scale toxicological study of sediments in Australia, the objective of which is to assess the protective and predictive abilities of North American biological effects-based sediment quality guidelines, recently adopted in Australia. Amphipods were exposed to whole sediments in survival and reburial tests, sea urchin fertilisation and larval development tests were conducted on porewaters, and bacterial bio-luminescence (Microtox) tests were conducted on organic solvent extracts and porewaters. Local indigenous species were used for the amphipod and sea urchin tests (Corophium sp. and Heliocidaris tuberculata, respectively). A wide range of responses, from <25 to 100% of negative controls were observed in all tests. Mean control-adjusted responses ranged from 46 to 96% for all tests. The percentages of highly toxic samples ranged from 11 to 83% in the various tests. The order of test sensitivity was: amphipod survival < Microtox test of porewaters < amphipod reburial < sea urchin larval development < sea urchin fertilisation < Microtox test of solvent extracts. Concordance between toxicity tests in classifying samples as highly toxic or not, ranged from 47 to 79%, indicating some similarities between test results, but not complete equivalence. Combined toxicity test results showed that the incidence of highly toxic responses occurring in the majority of tests (75-100% of tests) was low (5% of samples), but a large percentage of samples had highly toxic results in at least one test (76% of samples). Toxicity was more pervasive in the Sydney region than in coastal lakes and estuaries south of Sydney. The current study demonstrated the utility of indigenous invertebrate species and the Microtox bacterium in a sediment toxicity test battery for Australian saltwater sediments.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity in the Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. In turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants. Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed. Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals. The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.     

Shoreline change and potential sea level rise impacts in a climate hazardous location in southeast coast of India

Climate change impact on the environment makes the coastal areas vulnerable and demands the evaluation of such susceptibility. Historical changes in the shoreline positions and inundation based on projected sea-level scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m were assessed for Nagapattinam District, a low-lying coastal area in the southeast coast of India, using high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data; multi-dated Landsat satellite images of 1978, 1991, 2003, and 2015; and census data of 2011. Image processing, geographical information system, and digital shoreline analysis system methods were used in the study. The shoreline variation indicated that erosion rate varied at different time scales. The end point rate indicated the highest mean erosion of ??3.12 m/year, occurred in 73% of coast between 1978 and 1991. Weighted linear regression analysis revealed that the coast length of 83% was under erosion at a mean rate of ??2.11 m/year from 1978 to 2015. Sea level rise (SLR) impact indicated that the coastal area of about 14,122 ha from 225 villages and 31,318 ha from 272 villages would be permanently inundated for the SLR of 0.5 and 1 m, respectively, which includes agriculture, mangroves, wetlands, aquaculture, and forest lands. The loss of coastal wetlands and its associated productivity will severely threaten more than half the coastal population. Adaptation measures in people participatory mode, integrated into coastal zone management with a focus on sub-regional coastal activities, are needed to respond to the consequences of climate change.     

Ecosystem classification for EU habitat distribution assessment in sandy coastal environments: An application in central Italy

Many recent developments in coastal science have gone against the demands of European Union legislation. Coastal dune systems which cover small areas of the earth can host a high level of biodiversity. However, human pressure on coastal zones around the world has increased dramatically in the last 50 years. In addition to direct habitat loss, the rapid extinction of many species that are unique to these systems can be attributed to landscape deterioration through the lack of appropriate management. In this paper, we propose to use of an ecosystem classification technique that integrates potential natural vegetation distribution as a reference framework for coastal dune EU Habitats (92/43) distribution analysis and assessment. As an example, the present study analyses the EU Habitats distribution within a hierarchical ecosystem classification of the coastal dune systems of central Italy. In total, 24 land elements belonging to 8 land units, 5 land facets, 2 land systems and 2 land regions were identified for the coastal dunes of central Italy, based on diagnostic land attributes. In central Italy, coastal dune environments including all the beach area, mobile dunes and all the fixed-dune land elements contain or could potentially hold at least one EU habitat of interest. Almost all dune slack transitions present the potentiality for the spontaneous development of EU woodlands of interest. The precise information concerning these ecosystems distribution and ecological relationships that this method produces, makes it very effective in Natura 2000 European network assessment. This hierarchical ecosystem classification method facilitates the identification of areas to be surveyed and eventually bound, under the implementation of EU Habitat directive (92/43) including areas with highly disturbed coastal dune ecosystems.     

Water Quality Modeling of Municipal Discharges from Sea Outfalls,Mumbai

The island city of Mumbai with a population of about 10 million generates about 2000 million liters per day (mld) of sewage from the seven service areas of the city sewerage network and discharges it into the adjoining west coast and the two creeks in the Arabian Sea. This has resulted in degradation of coastal water quality, contamination of the adjoining beaches and seafronts. The Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai has therefore, undertaken the task of delineating appropriate sewage disposal system to achieve cleaner marine ecosystem through marine outfalls at specific locations. This paper presents the results of the mathematical simulations on the impacts of discharge is-a-vis the length of the outfall and level of land treatment apriori. The results of the simulation indicate the level of bacterial pollution to be higher near the diffuser locations as compared to nearshore regions. 48 hsimulation result analysis shows that FC counts nearthe diffuser location will be in the range of 2000–8000 counts per 100 ml.     

Spatial variability of soil salinity in coastal saline soil at different scales in the Yellow River Delta,China

The objectives of this study were to explore the spatial variability of soil salinity in coastal saline soil at macro, meso and micro scales in the Yellow River delta, China. Soil electrical conductivities (ECs) were measured at 0–15, 15–30, 30–45 and 45–60 cm soil depths at 49 sampling sites during November 9 to 11, 2013. Soil salinity was converted from soil ECs based on laboratory analyses. Our results indicated that at the macro scale, soil salinity was high with strong variability in each soil layer, and the content increased and the variability weakened with increasing soil depth. From east to west in the region, the farther away from the sea, the lower the soil salinity was. The degrees of soil salinization in three deeper soil layers are 1.14, 1.24 and 1.40 times higher than that in the surface soil. At the meso scale, the sequence of soil salinity in different topographies, soil texture and vegetation decreased, respectively, as follows: depression >flatland >hillock >batture; sandy loam >light loam >medium loam >heavy loam >clay; bare land >suaeda salsa >reed >cogongrass >cotton >paddy >winter wheat. At the micro scale, soil salinity changed with elevation in natural micro-topography and with anthropogenic activities in cultivated land. As the study area narrowed down to different scales, the spatial variability of soil salinity weakened gradually in cultivated land and salt wasteland except the bare land.     

2019年连云港近岸海域水质环境分析与综合评价

于2019年春、夏、秋季对连云港近岸海域海水中营养盐、重金属等共19项指标进行3个航次采样监测.依照海水水质评价标准统计分析站点达标率,采用有机污染物指数法和富营养化指数法,对调查海域海水有机污染、营养水平等进行综合评价.结果表明:2019年连云港市海域站位全年达标率为86.4％,达标面积为6543 km2,占管辖海域...     

福建沿海地区不同区域稻田土壤重金属元素富集特征与环境质量评价

通过调查福建沿海地区不同区域的水稻田土壤重金属元素Hg、Cd、Pb污染富集现状,采集样品195件,采用单因子指数、地质累积指数以及内梅罗综合污染指数对土壤环境质量进行评价。结果表明,福建沿海各区域水稻田土壤均有不同程度的重金属富集污染。单项污染指数评价结果显示,Hg分4级,分别是安全等级、警戒线级、轻污染级和中度污染级;Pb全部为安全等级;Cd分2级,分别是安全级和警戒线级。Hg的地质累积指数分3级,分别是轻污染级、中度污染级和中强度污染级;Pb全部为轻污染级;Cd分2级,轻污染级和中度污染级。内梅罗综合污染指数评价结果为安全级有5个地区,警戒线级有3个地区,轻污染等级2个地区。地质累积指数评价结果与单因子污染指数评价结果有明显差异。调查区域土壤环境质量评价为Cd、Pb平均值未超出国家《土壤环境质量标准》(GB 15618—1995)Ⅱ级标准,Hg有40%地区超标。福建沿海地区土壤重金属污染具有中等到高的生态风险。     

Accumulation of total trace metals due to rapid urbanization in microtidal zone of Pallikaranai marsh, South of Chennai, India

The article presents the results for enrichment of total trace metals (TTMs) from Pallikaranai salt marsh in South Chennai, a metropolis on the southeast coast of India. TTMs Fe, Mn, Cr, Cu, Ni, Co, Pb, Zn, Cd, Sr, V, and Hg along with sediment texture, OC, and CaCO₃ were analyzed in 36 surface sediments collected during August 2008 to recognize and observe the input of TTMs in the marsh from various sources in the city limits. In view of the rapid urbanization and industrialization in Chennai City, especially on the southern side, uncontrolled input of sewage, garbage, and industrial effluents into the Pallikaranai marsh land, the elevated concentrations are not surprising. The level of enrichment of TTMs has also increased by 20% to 60% for most of the elements when compared with all other ecosystems in the world as well as the nearby area. The results also indicate that the marshy region is more heavily contaminated with Cd, Hg, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn than other regions on the southeast coast of India. The Enrichment Factor, Contamination Factor, and I _geo indexes are calculated, and these values are useful to assess the degree of pollution in sediments. The spatial distributions of TTMs are also controlled by other factors like geochemical, precipitation, and flocculation of particulate substances in the marsh. The results of the present study suggest the need for a regular monitoring and management program which will help to improve the quality of Pallikaranai pristine marsh land.