An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM Project

This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 and 2100. Scenarios consisted of trends in emissions, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition and climate change. Critical loads and critical levels were used to assess the impacts of deposition to forest soils and a new analogous concept of “critical climate change” was developed to assess the impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the limitations of the scope and models used in the study, preliminary conclusions were: (1) regional air pollution and climate change may be fairly weakly coupled in the natural environment, i.e. climate change was not found to have a large impact on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to regional air pollution, nor on the distribution of deposition; nor did regional air pollution (in the form of sulfate aerosols) have a significant impact on climate change in Europe; (2) however, regional air pollution and climate change may be strongly coupled in the “policy” environment. It was estimated that virtually all of Europe at mid-century might be affected by either regional air pollution or climate change, or both, and this will require a strong policy response. Moreover, the indirect effects of climate policies were found to reduce the costs of controlling air pollution emissions by more than 50%, suggesting a strong potential financial linkage between policies to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.     

Estimation of climate change influence on the sensitivity of trees in Europe to air pollution concentrations

This paper describes the results of combining several simple models to assess the changes in plant sensitivity to direct effects of gaseous air pollutants that result from changes in climatic conditions. This research has been carried out within the framework of a project on the integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (AIR-CLIM). The modulation of plant sensitivity to gaseous pollutants has been studied using a model of stomatal conductance that simulates the flow of water vapor from the atmosphere to the plant interior through the stomata. The model has been applied to Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The critical atmospheric concentration levels for SO₂ and NO_x adopted in international environmental norms have been modified to maintain in different climate scenarios a concentration level inside the plant equivalent to the critical limit in 1990. These simulated critical concentrations are compared with the predicted atmospheric concentrations. Our work indicates that the response can be very different for the two types of forests and in different regions. In general, climate change sensitivity increases in boreal areas and decreases in temperate areas due to temperature and water stress. If the air pollution levels are in the predicted ranges, the problems are less severe now than in 1990, but the cumulative stress will still be significant.     

Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO₂, NH₃, VOC, CO, NO_x, black carbon, organic carbon, PM_2.5, and CH₄. We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.     

Benefits and costs of controlling three allergenic alien species under climate change and dispersal scenarios in Central Europe

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS.     

空气污染健康损失中统计生命价值评估研究

采用权变评价法(CVM)评估了我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值,并分析了其影响因素.结果表明,我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值约为100万元/a.区间值线性回归模型分析显示,年龄、受教育程度、人均年收入、健康和家庭规模等因素对统计生命价值均有显著影响,但是城市的不同对统计生命价值并没有显著影响.     

Science and policy in air pollution abatement strategies

In modern society, science is considered to have a pivotal role in defining environmental risks and problems as well as proposing relevant solutions to them. However, even political action is needed, which is not the least apparent when it comes to transboundary environmental problems. Today, there is an urgent need to create ways for science and policy to co-operate to find acceptable international solutions to transboundary environmental problems.This article focuses on the relationship between science and policy within the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution (CLRTAP). The LRTAP convention is seen as one of the most science-based regimes that exist, and is considered by researchers as well as politicians an exemplary form of co-operation between science and policy. Within this convention the concept of critical loads (CL) of ecosystem and the interactive computer model of the regional acidification information system (RAINS) have served as important tools for connecting scientific knowledge to policy-making. Through an empirical investigation, the article shows that CL and RAINS have different meanings for the involved actors, which include heterogeneous views on the boundary between science and policy. However, this has not constrained but rather enabled co-operation. Through a flexible understanding of CL and RAINS, actors from different fields have been able to find and agree upon successful solutions.     

A policy review of synergies and trade-offs in South African climate change mitigation and air pollution control strategies

Climate change mitigation and air quality management are mostly addressed separately in South African legal acts and policies. This approach is not always coherent, especially in the context of other serious issues South Africa is facing, such as poverty alleviation. Policies implemented to mitigate climate change might increase negative health affects due to unanticipated outcomes (e.g. increased local air pollution), and these indirect consequences must therefore be taken into account when devising mitigation strategies. However, greenhouse gas mitigation policies can also have co-benefits and positive impacts on local air pollution. An evidence-based approach that takes into account greenhouse gas emissions, ambient air pollutants, economic factors (affordability, cost optimisation), social factors (poverty alleviations, public health benefits), and political acceptability is needed tackle these challenges. A proposal is made that use of an integrated climate/air pollution techno-economic optimising model, such as the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Synergies (GAINS) model, may provide a rational decision support tool to guide policy makers into effective strategies for combined Climate Change and Air Quality mitigation measures.     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

气候变化对陕西省大气污染潜势的影响

分析了大气扩散潜势的分布,利用大气扩散模型对不同年份、季节扩散模式进行模拟,针对不同气候与短期气候变化问题进行模拟,以评估短期气候变化或区域气候变化对大气环境和大气污染潜势的冲击。结合1999—2009年气候变化潜势的模拟结果,气候变化使陕北及陕南大气扩散潜势呈逐年不利的扩散形式,SO₂平均浓度每年增加率分别为1.38%和0.29%,而关中地区大气扩散潜势变化则有利于扩散,其SO₂平均浓度每年减少约3.59%。     

工业大气污染治理的环境经济政策体系研究

分析了工业能源利用过程中大气污染防治的环境经济政策。从产业结构调整、能效优化、排污管理等层面对现行政策进行梳理和分析,并通过模拟中国不同类型城市的发展情景,提出对应的政策组合选择建议:对于数量扩张型城市,可选择增值税优惠、信贷融资支持政策,鼓励环境友好型、科技创新型产业的发展;对于资源依赖型城市,可选择合理设定资源税从价计征税率,发展排污权交易,辅以能效领跑者制度,引导产业结构调整,鼓励企业提高能效,并对污染物排放进行较为严格的管理;对于综合发展型城市,可推行企业环保信用奖惩机制,充分发挥信用体系在现代经济社会中的重要性,促进企业向环境友好型发展,约束和推动企业兼顾业务拓展和环境责任。     

Adapting to climate change: reducing water-related risks in Europe – EU policy and research considerations

Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle, e.g. leading to changes of precipitation patterns, have been observed over several decades. Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes hydrometeorological events (including floods and droughts) are likely to exacerbate different types of pressures on water resources with possible negative impacts on ecosystems and human health. In addition, sea-level rise is expected to extend areas of salinisation of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease of freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas. Furthermore, climate-related changes in water quantity and quality are expected to affect food availability, water access and utilisation, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, as well as the operation of water infrastructure (e.g. hydropower, flood defences, and irrigation systems). This paper serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy dealing with climate change impacts on water-related disasters. It provides a brief background about relevant EU water policies and examples of EU-funded research trends which illustrate on-going efforts to improve understanding and modelling of climate changes related to the hydrological cycles at scales that are relevant to decision making (possibly linked to policy).     

Long-term,consistent scenarios of emissions,deposition, and climate change in Europe

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH₃ emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change).Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO₂ emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants.     

Statistics of concentrations due to single air pollution sources to be applied in numerical modelling of pollutant dispersion

A test of goodness of fit based on rank statistics was applied to prove the applicability of the Eggenberger-Polya discrete probability law to hourly SO₂-concentrations measured in the vicinity of single sources. With this end in view, the pollutant concentration was considered an integral quantity which may be accepted if one properly chooses the unit of measurement (in this case μg m⁻³) and if account is taken of the limited accuracy of measurements.The results of the test being satisfactory, even in the range of upper quantiles, the Eggenberger-Polya law was used in association with numerical modelling to estimate statistical parameters, e.g. quantiles, cumulative probabilities of threshold concentrations to be exceeded, and so on, in the grid points of a network covering the area of interest. This only needs accurate estimations of means and variances of the concentration series which can readily be obtained through routine air pollution dispersion modelling.     

COVID-19期间区域大气高污染发生的非线性动力机制

以长株潭城市群3个城市(长沙、株洲和湘潭)疫情期间(2020年1月24日～2020年5月31日)大气PM2.5和O3小时平均浓度时间序列数据为研究对象,对污染物日变化规律、长期持续性、多重分形性及自组织演化动力学特性进行研究.以期阐释疫情期间高污染事件发生及演化的内在动力机制.首先,对3个城市PM2.5和O3质量浓度的...     

京津冀大气污染传输通道区大气污染时空格局研究

客观理解京津冀大气污染传输通道城市（“2+26”城市）空气污染时空格局对于区域大气污染联合防治具有重要意义.本研究采用遥感数据反演的PM_2.5浓度产品，利用趋势分析法和重心分析法，揭示了京津冀城市大气污染传输通道区2000~2015年大气污染时空格局演化特征.结果表明：（1）区域PM_2.5平均浓度整体呈现出太行山脉区域较低，太行山脉以东较高的格局，城镇地区明显高于周边地区.（2）2000~2015年区域PM_2.5年均浓度总体呈增加趋势，主要表现在2000~2007年，呈显著增加趋势的面积占全区的88.48%，之后呈稳定状态.（3）区域PM_2.5污染重心位于衡水、邢台和德州3市交界处，区域北部大气污染较严重.本研究可为京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治政策制定和措施实施提供参考与支持.     

2002~2009年兰州PM10人体健康经济损失评估

参考近年来公开发表的国内外流行病学文献,筛选出PM10的健康效应终点和适合于兰州地区的暴露-反应关系系数,对2002~2009年兰州地区PM10人体健康经济损失进行了计算.结果表明2002年以来兰州地区PM10人体健康经济损失并未明显升高,而是逐年波动;年损失值均在10亿元以上,其中2009年最高为16.6亿元; PM10人体健康经济损失与GDP的比值呈明显下降的趋势.     

旅游和区域大气污染对四川九寨沟气溶胶的贡献

2010年4月~2011年4月,在九寨沟连续监测了总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)和水溶性无机离子的浓度.结果表明:旅游活动显著增加了空气中TSP、SO42-、Ca2+、K+、NH4+和NO3-的含量,而Na+、Mg2+和Cl-则主要来自自然源;旅游强度最高时期(6~10月),降水对空气的清洗作用最强,气溶胶污染程度为全年最低;旅游强度较低时期(1~3、4~5和11~12月),降水量较低且西北沙尘易在春季抵达九寨沟,所以气溶胶污染程度较高;区域燃煤可能是气溶胶[SO42-]:[NO3-]比值较高的原因;生物质燃烧可能是K+在秋末至次年初春较高的原因之一.九寨沟大气环境已明显受当地旅游活动和污染物长距离传输的影响.     

Minimizing air pollution exposure: A practical policy to protect vulnerable older adults from death and disability

Air pollution causes an estimated 200,000 deaths per year in the United States alone. Older adults are at greater risk of mortality caused by air pollution. Here we quantify the number of older adult facilities in Los Angeles County who are exposed to high levels of traffic derived air pollution, and propose policy solutions to reduce pollution exposure to this vulnerable subgroup. Distances between 20,362 intersections and 858 elder care facilities were estimated, and roads or highways within 500 of facilities were used to estimate traffic volume exposure. Of the 858 facilities, 54 were located near at least one major roadway, defined as a traffic volume over 100,000 cars per day. These 54 facilities house approximately 6000 older adults. Following standards established for schools, we recommend legislation mandating the placement of new elder care facilities a minimum of 500 ft from major roadways in order to reduce unnecessary mortality risk from pollution exposure.     

The impact of China's high-speed rail investment on regional economy and air pollution emissions

The high-speed rail (HSR) network in China has experienced rapid development since the2000s.In 2016,the State Council of the People’s Republic of China issued a revised version o the“Mid-and Long-term Railway Network Plan”,detailing the expansion of the railway net work and construction of an HSR system.In the future,the HSR construction efforts in China will further increase,which is considered to impact regional development and air pollutan emissions.Therefore,in this paper,we apply a transpor...