中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本评估——基于Meta分析方法

准确评估中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本的经济可行性,是科学制定碳中和林业行动方案的基础。然而针对中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本的不同结果差异明显,可靠性需要进一步验证。为此,基于相关文献,采用Meta分析方法,对中国森林碳汇潜力与增汇成本及其导致差异的原因展开评估。研究表明：(1)中国森林碳汇量呈现不断增长的态势,但不同研究对森林碳汇潜力测度结果存在较大差异。(2)中国森林增汇的平均成本为220.45元/t CO_2e(区间值为3.9～1457.02元/t CO_2e),与工业减排成本相比,中国森林增汇更具有经济可行性,但波动幅度较大。(3)评估方法采用、碳库数量选择等因素是导致已有森林碳汇潜力文献估计结果差异的关键因素;森林增汇成本差异则主要受碳汇成本测度研究方法、成本收益数据来源等因素影响。(4)中国森林增汇对碳中和的贡献将会持续增加。基于研究结果,提出进一步深化森林碳汇潜力与成本测算相关研究等方面的政策建议。     

The carbon sequestration potential of tree crop plantations

Carbon (C) conservation and sequestration in many developing countries needs to be accompanied by socio-economic improvements. Tree crop plantations can be a potential path for coupling climate change mitigation and economic development by providing C sequestration and supplying wood and non-wood products to meet domestic and international market requirements at the same time. Financial compensation for such plantations could potentially be covered by the Clean Development Mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Kyoto Protocol, but its suitability has also been suggested for integration into REDD?+?(reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation and enhancement of forest C stocks) currently being negotiated under the United Nations FCCC. We assess the aboveground C sequestration potential of four major plantation crops – cocoa (Theobroma cacao), oil palm (Elaeis guineensis), rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), and orange (Citrus sinesis) – cultivated in the tropics. Measurements were conducted in Ghana and allometric equations were applied to estimate biomass. The largest C potential was found in the rubber plantations (214 tC/ha). Cocoa (65 tC/ha) and orange (76 tC/ha) plantations have a much lower C content, and oil palm (45 tC/ha) has the lowest C potential, assuming that the yield is not used as biofuel. There is considerable C sequestration potential in plantations if they are established on land with modest C content such as degraded forest or agricultural land, and not on land with old-growth forest. We also show that simple C assessment methods can give reliable results, which makes it easier for developing countries to partake in REDD?+ or other payment schemes.     

Carbon labelling of grocery products: public perceptions and potential emissions reductions

Public perceptions of a UK carbon labelling trial were assessed via three focus groups. The public found it very difficult to make sense of labelled emissions values without additional information. There was also little evidence of a willingness to use labels for product selection. There is a strong case for using carbon reduction labels to indicate a programme of on-going emissions reductions, rather than expecting consumers to incentivise emissions reductions by actively choosing the lower carbon variant of two or more products. The normalisation issues and emissions reduction potential of carbon labelling are discussed.     

含菌气溶胶扩散对人群的潜在影响风险

为分析生物气溶胶释放对人群潜在影响风险的情况,利用CALPUFF模型定量模拟了2019年7月24~8月20日中牧兰州生物药厂含菌气溶胶扩散、浓度空间分布、对人群潜在健康风险,并结合公开报道的检测数据开展验证.结果显示：生物药厂的含菌气溶胶排放源附近高值区主要集中于厂区四周,影响范围主要以厂区为中心,并向四周逐渐扩散;检测结果中兰州兽研所1#,兰州大学2#地区健康风险比例41.49：1,在模拟的相对风险大小的误差区间（36.15±8.48）范围内,说明本研究含菌气溶胶对人群潜在影响风险的模拟结果可信.     

土壤团聚体制备方法对其稳定性及固碳潜力评价的影响研究

为探讨不同土壤团聚体制备方法对评价城市土壤固碳潜力的影响,本研究采集北京市两种典型的不同利用类型土壤—城市绿地土壤和城郊农田土壤,分别采用干筛法和湿筛法制备土壤团聚体,对其团聚体组成、有机碳含量以及稳定碳同位素特征进行了解析.结果表明:干筛法制备的机械稳定性团聚体均以>0.25mm的大团聚体为主(城市绿地土壤:69.80%;农田土壤:71.36%);而湿筛法制备的水稳性团聚体均以<0.25mm微团聚体为主(城市绿地土壤:57.70%;农田土壤:52.14%).红外光谱解析发现,不同制备方法下,两类土壤中微团聚体中均是稳定有机碳比活性有机碳相对含量高;北京城郊农田土壤中稳定芳香碳的相对含量较多,而脂肪碳相对含量较少;城市绿地土壤则具有相反特征,说明城市绿地土壤中有机碳具有更高活性易在一定条件下被释放.结合稳定碳同位素比值解析发现,湿筛制备方法下¹³C在<0.053mm团聚体颗粒组中富集,更符合土壤团聚体胚胎发育模型,说明在土壤固碳潜力研究中,湿筛法比干筛法制备团聚体更具有实际评价价值,本研究为进一步评价我国城市土壤的固碳潜力具有参考意义.     

Long-term impact of a gliricidia-maize intercropping system on carbon sequestration in southern Malawi

Tree/crop systems under agroforestry practice are capable of sequestering carbon (C) in the standing biomass and soil. Although studies have been conducted to understand soil organic C increases in some agroforestry technologies, little is known about C sequestered in simultaneous tree/crop intercropping systems. The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of agroforestry practice on C sequestration and CO₂-C efflux in a gliricidia-maize intercropping system. The experiment was conducted at an experimental site located at the Makoka Agricultural Research Station, in Malawi. The studies involved two field plots, 7-year (MZ21) and 10-year (MZ12), two production systems (sole-maize and gliricidia-maize simultaneous intercropping systems). A 7-year-old grass fallow (Grass-F) was also included. Gliricidia prunings were incorporated at each time of tree pruning in the gliricidia-maize. The amount of organic C recycled varied from 0.8 to 4.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ in gliricidia-maize and from 0.4 to 1.0 Mg C ha⁻¹ in sole-maize. In sole-maize, net decreases of soil carbon of 6 Mg C ha⁻¹ at MZ12 and 7 Mg C ha⁻¹ at MZ21 in the topsoil (0–20 cm) relative to the initial soil C were observed. After 10 years of continuous application of tree prunings C was sequestered in the topsoil (0–20 cm) in gliricidia-maize was 1.6 times more than in sole-maize. A total of 123–149 Mg C ha⁻¹ were sequestered in the soil (0–200 cm depth), through root turnover and pruning application in the gliricidia-maize system. Carbon dioxide evolution varied from 10 to 28 kg ha⁻¹ day⁻¹ in sole-maize and 23 to 83 kg ha⁻¹ day⁻¹ in gliricidia-maize. We concluded that gliricidia-maize intercropping system could sequester more C in the soil than sole-maize.     

重庆市农田土壤有机碳时空变化与固碳潜力分析

区域土壤有机碳库、固碳潜力的估算,对全球气候变化中的碳循环研究具有重要意义.本研究基于1978—1979年全国第二次土壤普查和2007—2011年农业部"测土配方施肥"项目的数据,并结合大量前人调研资料和田间试验数据进行整理与比较分析.同时,采取土壤类型法估算了重庆市农田土壤碳库储量和碳密度;基于GIS分析了重庆市农田土壤碳密度的空间分布特征;对30年来各区县农田土壤碳量变化趋势进行拟合分析,估算了农田土壤固碳潜力.结果表明,土壤表层有机碳库总储量为233.54×106t,土壤有机碳密度平均值为3.08 kg·m-2;渝西南、渝东北和渝东南的农田土壤有机碳密度较高,长江干流沿岸及附近低山丘陵地区土壤有机碳密度较低;重庆市农田土壤固碳潜力约为30.82 Tg(以C计),农田土壤单位面积固碳潜力平均值为6.71 t·hm-2.     

Socioeconomic potential of carbon sequestration through agroforestry in the West African Sahel

The recognition of agroforestry as a greenhouse-gas mitigation strategy under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) offers an opportunity to agroforestry practitioners to benefit from the global Carbon (C) credit market. Our knowledge on this important topic from the semiarid regions such as the West African Sahel (WAS) is, however, very limited. In order to fill this gap, this study was undertaken in the Ségou region of Mali (annual temperature, 29°C; annual rainfall, 300–700 mm in 60 to 90 days), focusing on two improved agroforestry systems (live fence and fodder bank) along with traditional parkland agroforestry systems of the region. A cost–benefit analysis was conducted to assess the economic profitability and risks associated with the systems considering them as 25-year projects and their potential for participation in C credit market. The traditional systems had high C stock in their biomass and soil, but little potential for sequestering additional C; on the other hand, the improved systems had low C stock, but high sequestration potential. For the standard size live fence (291 m) and fodder bank (0.25 ha) projects, the estimated net present values (NPV) were $ 96.0 and $158.8 without C credit sale, and $109.9 and $179.3 with C sale, respectively. From the C sale perspective, live fence seemed less risky and more profitable than fodder bank. Carbon credit sale is likely to contribute to economic development of the subsistence farmers in the WAS.

The potential of cropland soil carbon sequestration in the Loess Plateau, China

It is generally accepted that cropland soils could be managed to store significant carbon (C), however little information is available regarding the cropland soil C sequestration potential of the Loess Plateau in northern China. This study aimed to estimate the cropland soil C sequestration potential in this area using the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method with region-specific C stock change factors. The results show that the C sequestration potential can reach 6.054 Tg C yr^?1 (1Tg?=?10¹² g) in cropland soils of the Loess Plateau using techniques that are currently available (no-tillage and high residue incorporation). Although the results show a high degree of uncertainty in this estimate with 95 % confidence interval ranges from 2.623 to 11.94 Tg C yr^?1, our study suggests that cropland soil C sequestration could play a meaningful role in helping to mitigate greenhouse gas increases in the Chinese Loess Plateau.     

Mediterranean shrublands carbon sequestration: environmental and economic benefits

To date, only a few attempts have been done to estimate the contribution of Mediterranean ecosystems to the global carbon cycle. Within this context, shrub species, composition and structure of the Mediterranean shrublands developing along the Latium coast (Italy) were analyzed in order to evaluate their contribution to carbon (C) sequestration, also taking into consideration the economic benefits at a national level. The considered shrublands had a shrub density of 1,200?±?500 shrubs ha^?1. Shrubs were classified into small (S), medium (M) and large (L), according to their volume (V) and leaf area index (LAI). The total yearly carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration per species (SC_y) was calculated multiplying the total photosynthetic leaf surface area (spt) of each species by the mean yearly photosynthetic rate and the total yearly photosynthetic activity time (in hours). Q. ilex and A. unedo had the highest SC_y (46.2?±?15.8 kg CO₂ year^?1, mean value), followed by P. latifolia (17.5?±?6.2 kg CO₂ year^?1), E. arborea, E. multiflora, C. incanus, P. lentiscus, R. officinalis, and S. aspera (6.8?±?4.2 kg CO₂ year^?1, mean value). The total yearly CO₂ sequestration per shrub (SC_shy) was 149?±?5 kg CO₂ year^?1 in L, decreasing 30 % in M and 80 % in S shrubs. Taking into account the frequency of S, M and L and their SC_shy, the total CO₂ sequestration of the Mediterranean maquis was quantified in 80 Mg CO₂ ha^?1?year^?1, corresponding to 22 Mg C ha^?1?year^?1. From a monetary viewpoint, this quantity could be valued to more than 500 US$ ha^?1?year^?1. Extending this benefit to the Mediterranean shrublands throughout the whole country, we obtained a nationwide estimated annual benefit in the order of $500 million.     

沼泽湿地植物光合特性及固“碳”潜势对外源氮输入的响应

以沼泽湿地典型草甸植被小叶章(Calamagrostis angustifolia)为研究对象,在三江平原进行了野外培养实验,探讨了4个不同氮素输入水平(0(NO)、6(N6),12(N12)、24(N24)g·m-2· a-1)下沼泽湿地植物生长与光合特性的响应特征,并从光合固"碳"的角度分析了小叶章沼泽湿地的固"碳"潜势.结果表明,外源氮输入明显促进了小叶章的株高、叶面积及植株数,显著增加了碳的生物量积累,到植物生长季结束,N6、N12和N24三个施氮水平下,小叶章地上部分生物量分别比对照增加了58.79%、133.11%和190.55%.同时,小叶章叶片全氮含量、叶绿素、可溶性蛋白和游离氨基酸含量也显著增加,净光合速率明显提高,分别比对照增加了20.70%、26.69%和53.54%.从光合固"碳"的角度来看,外源氮输入能够促使沼泽湿地植物通过光合作用固定更多CO2.     

光伏行业生命周期碳排放清单分析

本研究建立了光伏行业生命周期碳排放清单,并在处置阶段对不同处置情景的碳排放进行比较.通过现场、资料调研和工艺研发应用的方式,获得光伏行业生产、使用、处置阶段及三个情景的资源、能源的输入/输出和污染物排放数据.结果表明：光伏行业碳排放集中在生产阶段,其中又以高纯多晶硅生产过程的碳排放最高;使用阶段碳排放较小,仅为生产阶段的3%;电耗是最主要的碳排放因素,占生产和使用阶段碳排放的64.98%.处置阶段的3种情景的碳排放由大到小依次是填埋 > 拆解 > 热解,除了填埋略微增加碳排放外,拆解和热解都能显著降低行业碳排放,可分别降低6.03%和33.59%.研究显示采用热解回收技术的光伏组件生命周期单位发电量碳排放强度,不仅低于同类研究,还远低于我国当前电力结构的碳排放水平,发展光伏行业可实现环境与能源双赢.     

The impact of climate change under different thinning regimes on carbon sequestration in a German forest district

The objective of this paper is to assess how much carbon (C) is currently stored in a forest district in Thuringia, Germany, and how the carbon stocks will develop up to the year 2099 with a changing climate and under various management regimes (including no management), with different assumptions about carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization effects. We applied the process-based model 4C and a wood product model to a forest district in Germany and evaluated both models for the period from 2002 to 2010, based on forest inventory data for the stands in the district. Then, we simulated the growth of the stands in the forest district under three different realizations of a climate change scenario, combined with different management regimes. Our simulations show that in 2099, between 630 and 1149 t C ha^?1 will be stored in this district. The simulations also showed that climate change affects carbon sequestration. The no management strategy sequestered the highest amount of carbon (8.7 t C ha^?1 year^?1), which was greater than the management regimes. In the model, the possible fertilization effect of CO₂ is an important factor. However, forest management remains the determining factor in this forest district.     

中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析

随着经济社会的发展与人民生活水平的提高,生活用能强度逐年增大,城市居民生活能源碳排放日益成为碳排放的新增长点.本文采用Theil指数、空间自相关分析了我国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了影响城市居民生活能源碳排放的主要因素.结果表明:12001—2012年我国城市居民生活能源碳排放总量及人均生活能源碳排放量均呈增长趋势,其年增长率分别为9.69%、3.29%;2八大经济区域间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的差异是构成我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放总体差异的主要原因,其对总差异的贡献率达到了57.90%;3我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,2001—2012年间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的"冷点"区变化较为稳定,主要分布在东部和南部经济区,而"热点"区主要分布在西北、东北和黄河中游经济区;4城市人口规模、城市居民可支配收入、城市居民生活消费支出、城市居民年龄结构均对城市居民生活能源碳排放量具有加剧作用,而城市居民能源消费结构具有减缓作用,且北方城市居民生活能源碳排放量明显高于南方;5现有样本数据支持环境Kuznets曲线假说,即随着经济的发展,城市居民生活能源碳排放量存在转折点.     

“双碳”背景下中国能源消费碳排放与植被固碳的时空分异

为理解中国能源消费碳排放(ERCE)与植被固碳(VCS)的演变特征及空间差异,基于气象数据、遥感数据、土地覆盖数据及统计资料等,分别在全国尺度、省域尺度和县域尺度上,定量分析2000~2017年我国ERCE和VCS的动态变化与空间分异格局,并利用碳压力指数(CPI),表征二者之间的相互关系.结果表明:(1)我国ERCE和人均ERCE在2000~2017年间表现出显著增加趋势(P<0.01),但二者分别在2013年和2012年以后出现小幅下降;空间上,二者呈现出“北高南低、东高西低”的差异特征;(2)VCS和人均VCS均在2010年以后呈现快速增加趋势(P<0.01),幅度分别为148.09×10⁶t/a和0.04t/(人·a),东北、西南和黄土高原等区域VCS和人均VCS的增加幅度明显高于其他地区;(3)全国约有近1/3的省份CPI多年平均值在1以上(即ERCE高于VCS),其中上海、天津、江苏、山东、宁夏的CPI平均值较高,且增幅也相对较大,反映出这些区域具有较大的减排压力.研究结果可为我国不同区域碳减排政策的制定提供科学依据.     

Biodiversity,carbon stocks and sequestration potential in aboveground biomass in smallholder farming systems of western Kenya

While Carbon (C) sequestration on farmlands may contribute to mitigate CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere, greater agro-biodiversity may ensure longer term stability of C storage in fluctuating environments. This study was conducted in the highlands of western Kenya, a region with high potential for agroforestry, with the objectives of assessing current biodiversity and aboveground C stocks in perennial vegetation growing on farmland, and estimating C sequestration potential in aboveground C pools. Allometric models were developed to estimate aboveground biomass of trees and hedgerows, and an inventory of perennial vegetation was conducted in 35 farms in Vihiga and Siaya districts. Values of the Shannon index (H), used to evaluate biodiversity, ranged from 0.01 in woodlots through 0.4–0.6 in food crop plots, to 1.3–1.6 in homegardens. Eucalyptus saligna was the most frequent tree species found as individual trees (20%), in windrows (47%), and in woodlots (99%) in Vihiga and the most frequent in woodlots (96%) in Siaya. Trees represented the most important C pool in aboveground biomass of perennial plants growing on-farm, contributing to 81 and 55% of total aboveground farm C in Vihiga and Siaya, respectively, followed by hedgerows (13 and 39%, respectively) and permanent crop stands (5 and 6%, respectively). Most of the tree C was located in woodlots in Vihiga (61%) and in individual trees growing in or around food crop plots in Siaya (57%). The homegardens represented the second C pool in importance, with 25 and 33% of C stocks in Vihiga and Siaya, respectively. Considering the mean total aboveground C stocks observed, and taking the average farm sizes of Vihiga (0.6 ha) and Siaya (1.4 ha), an average farm would store 6.5 ± 0.1 Mg C farm^?1 in Vihiga and 12.4 ± 0.1 Mg C farm^?1 in Siaya. At both sites, the C sequestration potential in perennial aboveground biomass was estimated at ca. 16 Mg C ha^?1. With the current market price for carbon, the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism Afforestation/Reforestation (CDM A/R) projects seems unfeasible, due to the large number of small farms (between 140 and 300) necessary to achieve a critical land area able to compensate the concomitant minimum transaction costs. Higher financial compensation for C sequestration projects that encourage biodiversity would allow clearer win–win scenarios for smallholder farmers. Thus, a better valuation of ecosystem services should encourage C sequestration together with on-farm biodiversity when promoting CDM A/R projects.     

多维视角下新型城市化对中国二氧化碳排放影响的时空变化特征

城市化和碳排放之间关系密切,现有研究多从单一维度来衡量城市化,而忽略了城市化的多维性.本文从人口、经济、社会、空间和生态5个维度建立了新型城市化的评价体系,利用中国30个省、自治区和直辖市2004-2016年的面板数据,基于熵值法和地理加权回归(GWR)模型,从多维视角下研究了新型城市化对中国二氧化碳排放影响的时空变化...     

中国省际碳排放差异与碳减排目标实现——基于碳洛伦兹曲线的分析

通过1997—2009年中国各省份的能源消耗实物量来估算其CO2排放量,并运用收入不平等的度量工具——洛伦兹曲线、序列和基尼系数等来分析中国省际CO2排放差异,进而探讨跨省CO2排放均等化及中国减排目标的实现问题,以期为CO2减排政策制定和普通民众展示一种更直观、更易于接受的分析方法.研究发现,从1997年到2009年,有别于中国地区经济发展不平衡的状况,中国省际CO2排放基尼系数并未超过0.30,从1997年的0.273降为2009年的0.254,近几年基本保持在0.250左右,差异较小且趋于收敛;按照2009年价格计算,中国碳排放强度基本呈下降趋势,从1997年的2.12t.万元-1降为2009年的1.685t.万元-1;基于这些趋势,即使维持现状不变,中国政府的CO2减排承诺也基本可以兑现.     

Dynamics and the economics of carbon sequestration: common oversights and their implications

Accurate assessment of the cost of carbon sequestration is important for the development of mitigation policies globally. Given that sequestration in soils or vegetation is a lengthy process, such assessment requires financial discounting and making realistic assumptions about changes over time in the rate of sequestration, the price of carbon, and the opportunity cost incurred by adopting sequestration practices. Our objective is to demonstrate how these assumptions affect estimates of the cost of sequestration-based mitigation strategies. Using an Australian case study of soil carbon sequestration, our estimates of the carbon price required for financial viability are highly sensitive to dynamic assumptions, varying by a factor of four with different assumptions. Yet the influence of these time-related assumptions is poorly acknowledged in the literature, with many studies either failing to disclose their assumptions, or employing questionable assumptions and methods. Recommended global strategies are for researchers to report their assumptions related to dynamics much more transparently and to improve their research methods and the realism of their assumptions when analysing the economics of carbon sequestration. We recommend that policymakers become better aware of the issues created by dynamics, so that they are able to validly interpret assessments of the cost of sequestration and to ensure that they design policies in a way that facilitates fair comparison of the costs of mitigation strategies that operate over different timescales.