Particulate air quality model predictions using prognostic vs. diagnostic meteorology in central California

Comparisons were made between three sets of meteorological fields used to support air quality predictions for the California Regional Particulate Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) winter episode from December 15, 2000 to January 6, 2001. The first set of fields was interpolated from observations using an objective analysis method. The second set of fields was generated using the WRF prognostic model without data assimilation. The third set of fields was generated using the WRF prognostic model with the four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique. The UCD/CIT air quality model was applied with each set of meteorological fields to predict the concentrations of airborne particulate matter and gaseous species in central California. The results show that the WRF model without data assimilation over-predicts surface wind speed by ～30% on average and consequently yields under-predictions for all PM and gaseous species except sulfate (S(VI)) and ozone(O₃). The WRF model with FDDA improves the agreement between predicted and observed wind and temperature values and consequently yields improved predictions for all PM and gaseous species. Overall, diagnostic meteorological fields produced more accurate air quality predictions than either version of the WRF prognostic fields during this episode. Population-weighted average PM_2.5 exposure is 40% higher using diagnostic meteorological fields compared to prognostic meteorological fields created without data assimilation. These results suggest diagnostic meteorological fields based on a dense measurement network are the preferred choice for air quality model studies during stagnant periods in locations with complex topography.     

An unusual springtime ozone episode at high elevation in the Swiss Alps: contributions both from cross-tropopause exchange and from the boundary layer

An unusually “smooth” springtime ozone episode (maximum 97 ppb(v)) at the Jungfraujoch Observatory (3580 m asl) in the Swiss Alps is described. Analysis of meteorological variables is combined with back-trajectory analysis, and numerical simulations from a mesoscale model nested within a limited area model to examine the origin of the episode. Cross-tropopause exchange on the western flank of an upper trough, deep convection in a Gulf of Genoa cyclone, and the northwards advection of boundary-layer air (with possible in situ photochemistry) all combined to produce the highest ozone concentration of the year (1987) at the mountain site.     

Estimating an annual-average RSP concentration for Hong Kong using days characteristic of the dominant weather patterns

The air quality modelling system Pollutants in the Atmosphere and their Transport over Hong Kong (PATH) has been designed to provide guidance on policy and emission controls in Hong Kong. One important air quality objective to be addressed is the annual-average concentration of respirable suspended particulates (RSP). In PATH, this is done by suitably weighting the simulation results from seven case-study days, each representative of a major meteorological category. This paper describes the selection of these categories, a procedure which follows Heywood (Technical Memoirs, Hong Kong Observatory, No. 6, 1953) and is based on the dominant meteorological mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) patterns for Hong Kong. A statistical analysis of RSP data from five sites showed that the chosen categories, while stratified by meteorology, are also valid for clustering the daily mean RSP concentrations into groups of similar days. The weighting coefficients (annual frequency) were obtained from an inspection of daily weather charts between 1990 and 1995. For each category, the actual day selected for modelling with PATH was chosen so that the daily-mean RSP value for each site was close to the mean for the category. In this way, the annual mean computed using the modelled days is little different from the observed annual mean at each site.     

Respirable particulate matter at an urban and nearby industrial location: concentrations and variability and synoptic weather conditions during high pollution episodes

Continuous data of the concentration measurements of respirable suspended particulates (PM10, particles with aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 10 pm) were analyzed. These measurements were carried out at an urban and nearby industrial location in northern Greece for the 5-year period 1996-2000. The time series concentration trend was examined, the seasonal and diurnal variations were identified, and the lognormality of the daily mean concentration data sets was tested. Over the 5-year data-gathering period, the days on which the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 24-hr PM10 standard was exceeded (episode days) were identified and their relation to prevailing synoptic-scale meteorological conditions was studied. The analysis led to useful information concerning the air quality levels, the contribution of the main pollution sources in this area, as well as some of the mechanisms that influence the PM10 concentrations. It also was proved that the measured PM10 concentrations are a result of a combination of processes including local anthropogenic sources, mesoscale transport, and resuspension. A complex system of sources and meteorological conditions modulate the heavy particulate pollution in the area of interest.     

Development and application of a Lagrangian model to determine the origins of ozone episodes in the UK

This paper describes the further development and application of the Edinburgh–Lancaster Model for Ozone (ELMO). We replace straight-line back-trajectories with trajectories and associated meteorology supplied by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) service to allow more realistic modelling of specific UK ozone episodes. We call this ELMO-2. Model performance is rigorously tested against observed ozone concentrations for two episodes recorded across 14 rural UK monitoring stations during the spring and summer of 1995. For both episodes, the afternoon concentrations (usually coinciding with the daily maxima) are captured well by the model and the diurnal ozone cycle is reproduced, although the amplitude in concentrations is generally smaller than the observed. The summer episode is investigated further through indicator species analysis and source attribution, and found to be mainly VOC-limited. European emissions account for the majority of ozone production. We demonstrate how improved modelling leads to better understanding of regional and local ozone production across the UK under episodic conditions.     

Photochemical and meteorological relationships during the Texas-II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP)

The Moody Tower measurement site at the University of Houston experienced several large ozone events during the Texas-II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP) campaign between 13 Aug–02 Oct, 2006. This rooftop site samples that atmosphere 70 m a.g.l. and consequently is less susceptible to local surface emissions. Several high-ozone episodes encountered at Moody Tower during the TRAMP campaign were preceded one to two days earlier by a cold front passage, creating a situation where polluted air is transported from the North interacts with local Houston emissions and with light local winds. High quality CO measurements were good indicators of long range transport of pollution and/or biomass burning. During TRAMP there were also 4 periods with low “background” CO characterized by southerly winds, overcast conditions and low NOx and O₃ mixing ratios. The summer and fall of 2000 was an unusually hot period in Houston with considerably higher ozone levels than the 2000–2007 climatology. The 2006 TRAMP time period is more representative of the typical conditions for these 8 years. Over the time period from 1991 to 2009 the number of 8-h ozone episode days in Houston has decreased, as have the peak 1-h ozone mixing ratios. It is not possible from this analysis to demonstrate whether these improvements in Houston air quality are due to reductions in NOx levels, VOCs levels, and/or changes in meteorology.     

Neural network-based study for predicting ground-level ozone concentration in large urban areas, applied to the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Events of high concentration of ground-level ozone constitute a matter of major concern in large urban areas in terms of air quality, and public health. In the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), air quality data generated by a network of air quality measuring stations have been used in a number of studies correlating ozone formation with different variables. A study was carried out on the application of neural network models in the identification of typical sceneries leading to high ground-level ozone concentrations in the SPMA. The results were then applied in the selection of variables, and in the definition of neural network-based models for estimating ozone levels from meteorological variables. When combined with existing weather prediction tools, the models can be applied in the prediction of ozone levels in the SPMA     

Rural southeast Texas air quality measurements during the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study

The authors conducted air quality measurements of the criteria pollutants carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and ozone together with meteorological measurements at a park site southeast of College Station, TX, during the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study II (TexAQS). Ozone, a primary focus of the measurements, was above 80 ppb during 3 days and above 75 ppb during additional 8 days in summer 2006, suggestive of possible violations of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in this area. In concordance with other air quality measurements during the TexAQS II, elevated ozone mixing ratios coincided with northerly flows during days after cold front passages. Ozone background during these days was as high as 80 ppb, whereas southerly air flows generally provided for an ozone background lower than 40 ppb. Back trajectory analysis shows that local ozone mixing ratios can also be strongly affected by the Houston urban pollution plume, leading to late afternoon ozone increases of as high as 50 ppb above background under favorable transport conditions. The trajectory analysis also shows that ozone background increases steadily the longer a southern air mass resides over Texas after entering from the Gulf of Mexico. In light of these and other TexAQS findings, it appears that ozone air quality is affected throughout east Texas by both long-range and regional ozone transport, and that improvements therefore will require at least a regionally oriented instead of the current locally oriented ozone precursor reduction policies.     

SAGA: a decision support system for air pollution management around a coal-fired power plant

Air quality models are currently feasible approaches to prevent air pollution episodes. From one of the first source-oriented modelling approaches for air pollution forecasting (Souto et al., 1994, 1996, 1998), a new decision support system for air quality management, SAGA, was developed to provide support to As Pontes Power Plant (APPP) staff. SAGA can provide air pollution forecasts and manage meteorological and air quality measurements. Power plant decisions are supported by the results of a non-hydrostatic meteorological model (ARPS, Xue et al., 2001) to produce Meteorological Forecasts (MFs), and to be coupled to different Lagrangian dispersion models.     

Photo-oxidant chemistry in the polluted boundary layer under changing UV-B radiation

UV-B radiation is a driving factor for the chemistry of the polluted boundary layer. It is involved in the formation of radicals and consequently influences the formation and concentration of photo-oxidants. The 3-D mesoscale photochemical Metphomod model was employed to study the effect of changes in UV-B radiation on the concentration of photo-oxidants in the boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau. The model chemistry is based on the RACM mechanism and a two-stream approximation of radiative transfer. A summer (July) and a late winter (February) episode were simulated. All simulations were replicated with relatively large changes in the prescribed total ozone. The results for an increase in UV-B radiation show increases in PAN, HNO₃, and ozone at noon in NO_x-rich areas and a decrease in NO_x. In NO_x-poor areas in summer the effect on ozone is weak and has a negative sign, the main effect being an increase in H₂O₂. The spatial variability of NO_x concentrations in the Swiss Plateau in the summer case is such that the effect of increased UV-B radiation on ozone is spatially variable. The effect on the ozone production rate in summer is strongest positive at the surface in the NO_x-rich regions in the morning and strongest negative at some altitude above ground in NO_x-poor regions in the early afternoon. In the winter episode, NO_x-rich conditions are found almost everywhere on the Swiss Plateau, the effect of increased UV-B radiation on the ozone production rate is positive all day long and is largest at 300 m above ground at noon. In this case, in contrast to the summer case, the increase in ozone is carried over to the next day. The model results for ozone are in good agreement with results from a case study and a time series analysis of surface ozone measurements. We estimate the effect of day-to-day changes in total ozone on surface ozone peaks to range from 4 to 6 ppb at most.     

A numerical study of an autumn high ozone episode over southwestern Taiwan

Elevated ozone concentration is one of the current major environmental concerns in Taiwan. The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of ground level ozone over Taiwan are investigated by using air quality network stations of Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA). Data shows that high ozone episodes frequently occur over southwest Taiwan during autumn. In this season, shallow northeasterly winds prevail after frontal passage and are diverted by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) because of its mean altitude of about 2.5 km. The windward side in northern Taiwan is usually associated with cloudy days, whereas sunny days with weak wind speeds usually occur on the lee side of the CMR over southwest Taiwan due to topographical blocking. Numerical results indicate that anthropogenic emissions from the north of Kaohsiung could contribute as much as 41% of ozone for the Kaohsiung metropolitan area and 24% for the inland rural Pingtung area during the northerly flow. It is concluded that the contribution of the emissions from the north of Kaohsiung is significant and cannot be ignored. The northerly air masses, which flows over the western plain during daytime, picks up ozone and its precursors which are transported to southwestern Taiwan. After a sea breeze develops, strong onshore flow transports significant amounts of ozone and precursors to the inland rural areas resulting in the high ozone episodes that frequently occur over southwestern Taiwan during the autumn season.     

High ozone levels in the northeast of Portugal: Analysis and characterization

Each summer period extremely high ozone levels are registered at the rural background station of Lamas d'Olo, located in the Northeast of Portugal. In average, 30% of the total alert threshold registered in Portugal is detected at this site. The main purpose of this study is to characterize the atmospheric conditions that lead to the ozone-rich episodes at this site. Synoptic patterns anomalies and back trajectories cluster analysis were performed, for the period between 2004 and 2007, considering 76 days when ozone maximum hourly concentrations were above 200 μg m^?3. The obtained atmospheric anomaly fields suggested that a positive temperature anomaly is visible above the Iberian Peninsula. A strong wind flow pattern from NE is observable in the North of Portugal and Galicia, in Spain. These two features may lead to an enhancement of the photochemical production and to the transport of pollutants from Spain to Portugal. In addition, the 3D mean back trajectories associated to the ozone episode days were analysed. A clustering method has been applied to the obtained back trajectories. Four main clusters of ozone-rich episodes were identified, with different frequencies of occurrence: north-westerly flows (11%); north-easterly flows (45%), southern flow (4%) and westerly flows (40%). Both analyses highlight the NE flow as a dominant pattern over the North of Portugal during summer. The analysis of the ozone concentrations for each selected cluster indicates that this northeast circulation pattern, together with the southern flow, are responsible for the highest ozone peak episodes. This also suggests that long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants is the main contributor to the ozone levels registered at Lamas d'Olo. This is also highlighted by the correlation of the ozone time-series with the meteorological parameters analysed in the frequency domain.     

Synoptic-scale transport of ozone into Southern Ontario

This study focuses on synoptic-scale transport of ozone as it affects Southern Ontario. This process has been analyzed for the summer in 2001, as an example period of a frequent event that usually occurs during summer in this region. The work was carried out using the mesoscale modeling system generation 5 (MM5)/sparse matrix operator kernel emission modeling system (SMOKE)/community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) regional air quality modeling system, together with observational data from monitoring stations located throughout the modeling domain. Other different analyses have been carried out to supply more information apart from that obtained by the modeling system. A back-trajectory cluster methodology was used to evaluate the magnitude of the effects studied and an analysis of wind direction and cloud cover revealed a significant correlation with ozone concentration (R²=0.5–0.6). Synoptic sea-surface level pressure (SLP) patterns were also analyzed to examine other meteorological aspects. The contribution of natural background ozone to the total amount within the region was compared with that from synoptic-scale transport. The influence of emission of pollutants from selected areas on ozone concentrations in Southern Ontario was also analyzed. As relevant results of these analyses, the model predicts that background ozone is the largest contribution to the ground-level ozone concentration during days in which low values were recorded. However, when smog episodes occurred, the model predicts that around 60% of the ozone formed by anthropogenic emissions of pollutants is due to releases from nearby US states.     

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.     

Modelling the photochemical pollution over the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre,Brazil

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the photochemical pollution over the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (MAPA), Brazil, where high concentrations of ozone have been registered during the past years. Due to the restricted spatial coverage of the monitoring air quality network, a numerical modelling technique was selected and applied to this assessment exercise. Two different chemistry-transport models – CAMx and CALGRID – were applied for a summer period, driven by the MM5 meteorological model. The meteorological model performance was evaluated comparing its results to available monitoring data measured at the Porto Alegre airport. Validation results point out a good model performance. It was not possible to evaluate the chemistry models performance due to the lack of adequate monitoring data. Nevertheless, the model intercomparison between CAMx and CALGRID shows a similar behaviour in what concerns the simulation of nitrogen dioxide, but some discrepancies concerning ozone. Regarding the fulfilment of the Brazilian air quality targets, the simulated ozone concentrations surpass the legislated value in specific periods, mainly outside the urban area of Porto Alegre. The ozone formation is influenced by the emission of pollutants that act as precursors (like the nitrogen oxides emitted at Porto Alegre urban area and coming from a large refinery complex) and by the meteorological conditions.     

Detecting and Tracking Changes in Ozone Air Quality

This paper presents a statistical method for filtering out or moderating the influence of meteorological fluctuations on ozone concentrations. Use of this technique in examining trends in ambient ozone air quality is demonstrated with ozone data from a monitoring location in New Jersey. The results indicate that this method can detect changes in ozone air quality due to changes in emissions in the presence of meteorological fluctuations. This method can be useful in examining the effectiveness of regulatory initiatives in improving ozone air quality.     

Analysis of the impact of the forest fires in August 2007 on air quality of Athens using multi-sensor aerosol remote sensing data,meteorology and surface observations

Data from multiple satellite remote sensors are integrated with ground measurements and meteorological data to study the impact of Greek forest fires in August 2007 on the air quality in Athens. Two pollution episodes were identified by ground PM₁₀ measurements between August 23 and September 4. In the first episode, Evia and Peloponnese fires contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. In the second episode, transport of industrial pollution from Italy and Western Europe as well as forest fires in Albania contributed substantially to the air pollution levels in Athens. Local air pollution sources also contributed to the observed particle levels during these episodes. Satellite data provide valuable insights into the spatial distribution of particle concentrations, thus they can be used identify pollution sources. In spite of a few weaknesses in current satellite data products identified in this analysis, combining satellite aerosol remote sensing data with trajectory models and ground measurements is a powerful tool to study intensive particle pollution events such as forest fires.     

Assessing the meteorological conditions of a deep Italian Alpine valley system by means of a measuring campaign and simulations with two models during a summer smog episode

The typical features of a summer smog episode in the highly complex terrain of the Province of Bolzano (Northern Italy) were investigated by numerical modelling with two non-hydrostatic models, ground-based monitoring stations, and vertical profiling with two sodars and an ultra-light aircraft. High ozone concentrations are most likely to appear in situations where the local circulation in the valleys is decoupled from the synoptic flow above during anticyclonic weather regimes. Both models (MM5 and TVM) produced similar results and were able to simulate the local winds in the valleys. A comparison of the measured data to the model simulation results made an evaluation of the performance of the two models in such complex terrain possible. Both models proved to be suitable for the simulation of the meteorological conditions during such summer smog episodes in complex terrain.     

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and high humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique, used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] Air Quality System [AQS] Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site, located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990–2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000 and 2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, particularly lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), whereas 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post 2000 could be attributed to NO_x emission reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000–2016 and 0.155 ± 0.005 ppb/yr for the overall period of 1990–2016.

Implications: The effectiveness of air emission controls can be evaluated by developing long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influences. The KZ filter technique is a well-established method to separate an air quality time series into short-term, seasonal, and long-term components. This paper applies the KZ filter technique to MDA8 ozone data between 1990 and 2016 at an urban site in the greater Houston area and estimates the variance accounted for by the primary meteorological control variables. Estimates for linear trends of MDA8 ozone are calculated and underlying causes are investigated to provide a guidance for further investigation into air quality management of the greater Houston area.     

The influence of tropospheric ozone on the air temperature of the city of Toronto,Ontario, Canada

Weekday/weekend variations in tropospheric ozone concentrations were examined to determine whether ground-level greenhouse gases have a significant impact on local climate. The city of Toronto, Canada, was chosen due to a high volume of commuter traffic and frequent exposure to high ozone episodes. Due to day-of-the-week variations in commuter traffic, ozone concentrations were shown to vary significantly between weekdays and weekends. During high ozone episodes weekend air temperatures were significantly higher than those observed on weekdays. As no meteorological phenomenon is known to occur over a 7 day cycle the observed temperature variations were attributed to anthropogenic activity.