Tracking Cholera in Coastal Regions Using Satellite Observations1

Jutla, Antarpreet S., Ali S. Akanda, and Shafiqul Islam, 2010. Tracking Cholera in Coastal Regions Using Satellite Observations. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 651-662. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00448.x Abstract: Cholera remains a significant health threat across the globe. The pattern and magnitude of the seven global pandemics suggest that cholera outbreaks primarily originate in coastal regions and then spread inland through secondary means. Cholera bacteria show strong association with plankton abundance in coastal ecosystems. This review study investigates the relationship(s) between cholera incidence and coastal processes and explores utility of using remote sensing data to track coastal plankton blooms, using chlorophyll as a surrogate variable for plankton abundance, and subsequent cholera outbreaks. Most studies over the last several decades have primarily focused on the microbiological and epidemiological understanding of cholera outbreaks. Accurate identification and mechanistic understanding of large scale climatic, geophysical, and oceanic processes governing cholera-chlorophyll relationship is important for developing cholera prediction models. Development of a holistic understanding of these processes requires long and reliable chlorophyll datasets, which are beginning to be available through satellites. We have presented a schematic pathway and a modeling framework that relate cholera with various hydroclimatic and oceanic variables for understanding disease dynamics using the latest advances in remote sensing. Satellite data, with its unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage, have potentials to monitor coastal processes and track cholera outbreaks in endemic regions.     

A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

Using Dynamic Modeling to Scope Environmental Problems and Build Consensus

/ This paper assesses the changing role of dynamic modeling for understanding and managing complex ecological economic systems. It discusses new modeling tools for problem scoping and consensus building among a broad range of stakeholders and describes four case studies in which dynamic modeling has been used to collect and organize data, synthesize knowledge, and build consensus about the management of complex systems. The case studies range from industrial systems (mining, smelting, and refining of iron and steel in the United States) to ecosystems (Louisiana coastal wetlands, and Fynbos ecosystems in South Africa) to linked ecological economic systems (Maryland's Patuxent River basin in the United States). They illustrate uses of dynamic modeling to include stakeholders in all stages of consensus building, ranging from initial problem scoping to model development. The resultant models are the first stage in a three-stage modeling process that includes research and management models as the later stages.KEY WORDS: Dynamic modeling; Scoping; Consensus building; Environmental management; Ecosystem management; Policy making; Graphical programming languages     

Assessments of Wetland Functions: What They Are and What They Are Not

/ Many methods have been developed over the last two decades to provide information about wetland functions, but there has been little discussion of the models and algorithms used. Methods for generating information about wetlands were analyzed to understand their similarities, differences, and the type of information provided. Methods can first be grouped by the type of information they provide-classifications, characterizations, ratings, assessments, and evaluations. Methods that characterize, rate, or assess wetlands may generate information using one of two conceptual approaches-logic and mechanistic. Most methods that generate a numeric assessment of performance or value of wetland functions rely on the mechanistic approach to constructing models. Rapid assessment methods based on mechanistic models, however, do not assess the rates or dynamics of ecological processes occurring in wetlands. Rather, they provide a clear and concise way of organizing our current, and often subjective, knowledge about wetland functions. This is one limitation of current methods that is often misunderstood both by wetland managers and the scientific community. The advantages and limitations of the assumptions and the computational elements inherent in these approaches are discussed to provide wetland managers and regulators a better understanding of the information they are using. KEY WORDS: Wetlands; Functions; Assessment; Models; Methods     

A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios. Published on line     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONCEPTUALIZATION IN THE HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODELS1

In 1988, the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) funded project to develop an advanced hydrologic model for shallow water table systems. The FIPR hydrologic model (FHM) was developed to provide an improved predictive capability of the interactions of surface water and ground water using its component models, HSPF and MODFLOW. The Integrated Surface and Ground Water (ISGW) model was developed from an early version of FHM and the two models were developed relatively independently in the late 1990s. Hydrologic processes including precipitation, interception, evapotranspiration, runoff, recharge, streamflow, and base flow are explicitly accounted for in both models. Considerable review of FHM and ISGW and their applications occurred through a series of projects. One model evolved, known as the Integrated Hydrological Model IHM. This model more appropriately describes hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration fluxes within small distributed land‐based discretization. There is a significant departure of many IHM algorithms from FHM and ISGW, especially for soil water and evapotranspiration (ET). In this paper, the ET concepts in FHM, ISGW, and IHM will be presented. The paper also identifies the advantages and data costs of the improved methods. In FHM and IHM, ground water ET algorithms of the MODFLOW ET package replace those of HSPF (ISGW used a different model for ground water ET). However, IHM builds on an improved understanding and characterization of ET partitioning between surface storages, vadose zone storage, and saturated ground water storage. The IHM considers evaporative flux from surface sources, proximity of the water table to land surface, relative moisture condition of the unsaturated zone, thickness of the capillary zone, thickness of the root zone, and relative plant cover density. The improvements provide a smooth transition to satisfy ET demand between the vadose zone and deeper saturated ground water. While the IHM approach provides a more sound representation of the actual soil profile than FHM, and has shown promise at reproducing soil moisture and water table fluctuations as well as field measured ET rates, more rigorous testing is necessary to understand the robustness and/or limitations of this methodology.     

A review on optimization techniques for sizing of solar-wind hybrid energy systems

Solar and wind are inexhaustible, abundant, environmentally friendly and freely available renewable energy sources. Integration of these two sources has always been a complex optimization problem which requires efficient planning, designing and control strategies. Many researchers have designed cost effective and efficient hybrid solar-wind energy systems by using various available software tools and optimization algorithms. With the advancement in artificial intelligence methods, various new optimization techniques have been developed in the last few decades. This paper presents state of the art optimization methods applied to hybrid renewable based energy systems. A brief introduction of each technique is presented along with papers published in different reputed journals. This article also reviews different power management, control strategies and multi-objective optimization methods used for hybrid wind-solar systems. A case study is presented to demonstrate the efficacy of some of the algorithms.     

FOREST HYDROLOGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: ADDITIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS1

ABSTRACT: While much is known about the hydrology of forested mountain catchments in the Pacific Northwest, important research questions remain. For example, the dynamics of storm precipitation amounts and the modeling of catchment outflows represent a continuing research need. Without an improved understanding of the spatial and temporal aspects of storm precipitation patterns, our ability to evaluate and improve physically-based hydrologic models is limited. From a practical perspective, tens of thousands of kilometers of access roads have been constructed across forested catchments of the Pacific Northwest. Yet, few forestry research programs focus on road drainage (e.g., ditches, culverts, fords). The few studies that address this issue indicate road drainage systems need to function effectively over a wide range of flow events and terrain conditions. In addition, historical forest practices associated with hillslopes and riparian systems have altered the character of many Pacific Northwest aquatic ecosystems. If restoration of these systems is to be effective, research efforts are needed to better understand the linkages between riparian forests, geomorphic processes, and hydrologic disturbance regimes.     

GEOCHEMICAL INTERPRETATIONS OF GROUNDWATER FLOW SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT. Interest in the geochemistry of groundwater is increasing owing to the great number of current projects involving underground liquid waste storage, artificial recharge of potable water, accidental contamination of groundwater bodies, sanitary landfills, and pollution monitoring. Geochemical techniques used to facilitate the understanding of a groundwater system range from extremely simple to those requiring sophisticated theories, equipment, and procedures. An interpretation of the simple trilinear diagram for samples collected from the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico provided evidence that the fresh-water body was only a few tens of meters thick and was underlain everywhere by an extensive body of salt water. A geochemical technique that has been used effectively to identify the source of salt water in coastal aquifers is measurement of the carbon-14 concentrations. Carbon-14 has been used in a regional carbonate aquifer to determine the velocity of groundwater movement, rates of chemical reactions, and distribution of hydraulic conductivity. The application of principles of irreversible thermodynamics to groundwater systems provides a basis for constructing models which permit prediction, over both time and space, of changes in head distribution and chemical character of the water resulting from imposed stresses on the system. In essence, proper application of irreversible thermodynamics combines the potential theory of Hubbert with principles of reversible chemical thermodynamics, such as solution of carbonate minerals, to describe and explain controlling chemical reactions and processes of groundwater systems.     

Ecological Engineering Practices for the Reduction of Excess Nitrogen in Human-Influenced Landscapes: A Guide for Watershed Managers

Excess nitrogen (N) in freshwater systems, estuaries, and coastal areas has well-documented deleterious effects on ecosystems. Ecological engineering practices (EEPs) may be effective at decreasing nonpoint source N leaching to surface and groundwater. However, few studies have synthesized current knowledge about the functioning principles, performance, and cost of common EEPs used to mitigate N pollution at the watershed scale. Our review describes seven EEPs known to decrease N to help watershed managers select the most effective techniques from among the following approaches: advanced-treatment septic systems, low-impact development (LID) structures, permeable reactive barriers, treatment wetlands, riparian buffers, artificial lakes and reservoirs, and stream restoration. Our results show a broad range of N-removal effectiveness but suggest that all techniques could be optimized for N removal by promoting and sustaining conditions conducive to biological transformations (e.g., denitrification). Generally, N-removal efficiency is particularly affected by hydraulic residence time, organic carbon availability, and establishment of anaerobic conditions. There remains a critical need for systematic empirical studies documenting N-removal efficiency among EEPs and potential environmental and economic tradeoffs associated with the widespread use of these techniques. Under current trajectories of N inputs, land use, and climate change, ecological engineering alone may be insufficient to manage N in many watersheds, suggesting that N-pollution source prevention remains a critical need. Improved understanding of N-removal effectiveness and modeling efforts will be critical in building decision support tools to help guide the selection and application of best EEPs for N management.     

Sustainable Management for the Eastern Mediterranean Coast of Turkey

The objective of this article is to propose a program for the integrated coastal zone management that is required to stimulate and guide sustainable development of the Mediterranean coastal zone of Turkey. Improved data collection, quality control, analysis, and data management will provide a firm basis for future scientific understanding of the East Mediterranean coast of Turkey and will support long-term management. Various innovative procedures were proposed for a promising ecosystem-based approach to manage coastal wetlands in the Mediterranean: remote data acquisition with new technologies; environmental quality monitoring program that will provide a baseline for monitoring; linking a Geographic Information System (GIS) with natural resource management decision routines in the context of operational wetlands, fisheries, tourism management system; environmental sensitivity analysis to ensure that permitted developments are environmentally sustainable; and use of natural species to restore the wetlands and coastal dunes and sustain the system processes. The proposed management scheme will benefit the scientific community in the Mediterranean and the management/planning community in Eastern Turkey.     

HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.     

CURVE NUMBER HYDROLOGY IN WATER QUALITY MODELING: USES,ABUSES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Although the curve number method of the Natural Resources Conservation Service has been used as the foundation of the hydrology algorithms in many nonpoint source water quality models, there are significant problematic issues with the way it has been implemented and interpreted that are not generally recognized. This usage is based on misconceptions about the meaning of the runoff value that the method computes, which is a likely fundamental cause of uncertainty in subsequent erosion and pollutant loading predictions dependent on this value. As a result, there are some major limitations on the conclusions and decisions about the effects of management practices on water quality that can be supported with current nonpoint source water quality models. They also cannot supply the detailed quantitative and spatial information needed to address emerging issues. A key prerequisite for improving model predictions is to improve the hydrologic algorithms contained within them. The use of the curve number method is still appropriate for flood hydrograph engineering applications, but more physically based algorithms that simulate all streamflow generating processes are needed for nonpoint source water quality modeling. Spatially distributed hydrologic modeling has tremendous potential in achieving this goal.     

MODELING OF THE GREAT LAKES WATER SYSTEM1

There have been two predominate approaches to the modeling of the Great Lakes water system: physical models and mathematical models. The physical models have been of individual lakes whereas the mathematical models have varied from models of individual processes such as evaporation occurring in one portion of one lake to models which include all water quantity components for all five Great Lakes. The assumptions and limitations of the two approaches are presented along with the kinds of results to be expected from each type of modeling. Examples of previous modeling efforts are given to illustrate these assumptions, limitations, and results. Other areas requiring further research are outlined.     

SOIL MOISTURE PREDICTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Herein, a recently developed methodology, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), is presented and applied to the challenge of soil moisture prediction. Support Vector Machines are derived from statistical learning theory and can be used to predict a quantity forward in time based on training that uses past data, hence providing a statistically sound approach to solving inverse problems. The principal strength of SVMs lies in the fact that they employ Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) instead of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM). The SVMs formulate a quadratic optimization problem that ensures a global optimum, which makes them superior to traditional learning algorithms such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The resulting model is sparse and not characterized by the “curse of dimensionality.” Soil moisture distribution and variation is helpful in predicting and understanding various hydrologic processes, including weather changes, energy and moisture fluxes, drought, irrigation scheduling, and rainfall/runoff generation. Soil moisture and meteorological data are used to generate SVM predictions for four and seven days ahead. Predictions show good agreement with actual soil moisture measurements. Results from the SVM modeling are compared with predictions obtained from ANN models and show that SVM models performed better for soil moisture forecasting than ANN models.     

Feedbacks in Human–Landscape Systems

This article identifies key questions and challenges for geomorphologists in investigating coupled feedbacks in human–landscape systems. While feedbacks occur in the absence of human influences, they are also altered by human activity. Feedbacks are a key element to understanding human-influenced geomorphic systems in ways that extend our traditional approach of considering humans as unidirectional drivers of change. Feedbacks have been increasingly identified in Earth-environmental systems, with studies of coupled human–natural systems emphasizing ecological phenomena in producing emerging concepts for social–ecological systems. Enormous gaps or uncertainties in knowledge remain with respect to understanding impact-feedback loops within geomorphic systems with significant human alterations, where the impacted geomorphic systems in turn affect humans. Geomorphology should play an important role in public policy by identifying the many diffuse and subtle feedbacks of both local- and global-scale processes. This role is urgent, while time may still be available to mitigate the impacts that limit the sustainability of human societies. Challenges for geomorphology include identification of the often weak feedbacks that occur over varied time and space scales ranging from geologic time to single isolated events and very short time periods, the lack of available data linking impact with response, the identification of multiple thresholds that trigger feedback mechanisms, the varied tools and metrics needed to represent both physical and human processes, and the need to collaborate with social scientists with expertise in the human causes of geomorphic change, as well as the human responses to such change.     

Advanced in situ spectroscopic techniques and their applications in environmental biogeochemistry: introduction to the special section

Understanding the molecular-scale complexities and interplay of chemical and biological processes of contaminants at solid, liquid, and gas interfaces is a fundamental and crucial element to enhance our understanding of anthropogenic environmental impacts. The ability to describe the complexity of environmental biogeochemical reaction mechanisms relies on our analytical ability through the application and developmemnt of advanced spectroscopic techniques. Accompanying this introductory article are nine papers that either review advanced in situ spectroscopic methods or present original research utilizing these techniques. This collection of articles summarizes the challenges facing environmental biogeochemistry, highlights the recent advances and scientific gaps, and provides an outlook into future research that may benefit from the use of in situ spectroscopic approaches. The use of synchrotron-based techniques and other methods are discussed in detail, as is the importance to integrate multiple analytical approaches to confirm results of complementary procedures or to fill data gaps. We also argue that future direction in research will be driven, in addition to recent analytical developments, by emerging factors such as the need for risk assessment of new materials (i.e., nanotechnologies) and the realization that biogeochemical processes need to be investigated in situ under environmentally relevant conditions.     

Remote Sensing of Landscape-Level Coastal Environmental Indicators

Advances in technology and decreases in cost are making remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) practical and attractive for use in coastal resource management. They are also allowing researchers and managers to take a broader view of ecological patterns and processes. Landscape-level environmental indicators that can be detected by Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and other remote sensors are available to provide quantitative estimates of coastal and estuarine habitat conditions and trends. Such indicators include watershed land cover, riparian buffers, shoreline and wetland changes, among others. With the launch of Landsat 7, the cost of TM imagery has dropped by nearly a factor of 10, decreasing the cost of monitoring large coastal areas and estuaries. New satellites, carrying sensors with much finer spatial (1-5 m) and spectral (200 narrow bands) resolutions are being launched, providing a capability to more accurately detect changes in coastal habitat and wetland health. Advances in the application of GIS help incorporate ancillary data layers to improve the accuracy of satellite land-cover classification. When these techniques for generating, organizing, storing, and analyzing spatial information are combined with mathematical models, coastal planners and managers have a means for assessing the impacts of alternative management practices.     

Electronic waste recycling: A review of U.S. infrastructure and technology options

The useful life of consumer electronic devices is relatively short, and decreasing as a result of rapid changes in equipment features and capabilities. This creates a large waste stream of obsolete electronic equipment, electronic waste (e-waste).Even though there are conventional disposal methods for e-waste, these methods have disadvantages from both the economic and environmental viewpoints. As a result, new e-waste management options need to be considered, for example, recycling. But electronic recycling has a short history, so there is not yet a solid infrastructure in place.In this paper, the first half describes trends in the amount of e-waste, existing recycling programs, and collection methods. The second half describes various methods available to recover materials from e-waste. In particular, various recycling technologies for the glass, plastics, and metals found in e-waste are discussed. For glass, glass-to-glass recycling and glass-to-lead recycling technologies are presented. For plastics, chemical (feedstock) recycling, mechanical recycling, and thermal recycling methods are analyzed. Recovery processes for copper, lead, and precious metals such as silver, gold, platinum, and palladium are reviewed. These processes are described and compared on the basis of available technologies, resources, and material input–output systems.     

Evaluation of Current Approaches to Stream Classification and a Heuristic Guide to Developing Classifications of Integrated Aquatic Networks

Conservation and management of fresh flowing waters involves evaluating and managing effects of cumulative impacts on the aquatic environment from disturbances such as: land use change, point and nonpoint source pollution, the creation of dams and reservoirs, mining, and fishing. To assess effects of these changes on associated biotic communities it is necessary to monitor and report on the status of lotic ecosystems. A variety of stream classification methods are available to assist with these tasks, and such methods attempt to provide a systematic approach to modeling and understanding complex aquatic systems at various spatial and temporal scales. Of the vast number of approaches that exist, it is useful to group them into three main types. The first involves modeling longitudinal species turnover patterns within large drainage basins and relating these patterns to environmental predictors collected at reach and upstream catchment scales; the second uses regionalized hierarchical classification to create multi-scale, spatially homogenous aquatic ecoregions by grouping adjacent catchments together based on environmental similarities; and the third approach groups sites together on the basis of similarities in their environmental conditions both within and between catchments, independent of their geographic location. We review the literature with a focus on more recent classifications to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We identify gaps or problems with the current approaches, and we propose an eight-step heuristic process that may assist with development of more flexible and integrated aquatic classifications based on the current understanding, network thinking, and theoretical underpinnings.