“In common nature”: an ethnography of climate adaptation in the Lesotho Highlands

In Lesotho, climate change adaptation funding is being managed and distributed by the same mechanisms which have traditionally operationalised humanitarian aid and international development assistance in the country. Lessons from the HIV/AIDS disaster, along with insights into the value of participatory approaches foregrounding the expertise of indigenous communities, must be heeded in order to ensure that those most affected by climate change have a say in how adaptation is carried out. This paper proposes that indigenous people have developed and actively maintained resilience strategies, encoded in social practices and farming techniques, designed out of long experience with climatic variability. Through case studies, indigenous resilience strategies are explored, with emphasis on the anarchistic, improvisational nature of traditional ecological knowledge. Future directions for policy-makers and practitioners dealing with climate change adaptation are suggested, namely the need to foreground indigenous knowledge and the experiences of frontlines experts in key policy arenas.     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

Transformation of rural communities: lessons from a local self-initiative for building resilience in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change, where people’s livelihoods and their well-being are threatened, especially the viability of isolated communities. Realising the increasing risks from climate change on communities, government, in partnership with aid-donor partners, has invested millions of dollars in climate change projects, through mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a form of adaptation, the government invests in programmes aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable communities through landscape and seascape projects across the rural communities. Focusing on the “transformation concept” as a long-term adaptation strategy and enlargement of climate engineering and ecological resilience concepts, the paper discusses why building resilience from transformation of rural communities, as well as from landscape and seascape projects, would benefit communities and relevant authorities. This paper describes the findings of a study on two rural villages, Keigold and Mondo, from Ranogha Islands, Western Province, in Solomon Islands, where 80% of households decided to relocate from their old village “Mondo” to their new home “Keigold” after an earthquake in 2007, as part of a self-initiative. The reallocation process can be seen as a case of pro-active community transformation that provides valuable lessons to other rural communities that may be forced to move due to impacts from natural catastrophes, including those explained by climate change risks. Lessons from this experience suggest that policy-makers and non-government organisations should consider and empower local transformation initiatives as a way to building long-term adaptation to climate change.     

Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh

This paper is aimed to identify the factors that influence peoples' preference for adaptation against the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh are randomly interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. First, employing the principal component analysis various factors that influence adaptation preferences of people are identified. These factors are related to “demographic and social aspects”, “wealth and economic standing”, “past coping and adaptive behaviour”, “climate knowledge and information” and “spatial aspect” of life. What is common in these factors is their ability to influence peoples' vulnerability. Finally, the binomial logistic regression model is employed to compute the explanatory power of these factors to predict the respondents' preference for adaptation in situ over retreat or vice versa. Model findings are robust for two scenarios of SLR, i.e. 2050–2075 (LR χ ²?=?133.65, pseudo-R ²?=?0.53, p?<?0.001) and 2080–2100 (LR χ ²?=?282.61, pseudo-R ²?=?0.85, p?<?0.001). Therefore, it is concluded that to avoid relocation of substantial number of people initiative for encouraging adaptation in situ must be taken along side establishment of safe shelter, community radio service and campaign for raising climate awareness.     

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida1

Guha, Hillol and Sorab Panday, 2012. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 510-529. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00630.x Abstract: Freshwater resources of coastal communities in the United States and world over are threatened by the rate of sea level rise. According to recent estimates by various governmental agencies and climate researchers, the global sea level rise is likely to be between 0.6 and 2.1 m by the year 2100. South Florida is a coastal community and much of its coastline is subject to sea level rise and potential impacts to wetlands and the water resources of the area. To understand what the impact of sea level rise would cause to the groundwater level and salinity intrusion, an integrated groundwater and surface water model was developed for North Miami-Dade and Broward Counties of South Florida. The model was calibrated against daily groundwater heads, base flows in canals, and chloride concentrations for a period of one year and six months. Three separate sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the sea level by 0.6, 0.9, and 1.22 m. Results of the simulations shows increase of groundwater heads in some areas from 4 to 15%; whereas the average relative chloride concentrations increased significantly by 100-600% in some wells. The increase in groundwater elevations and chloride concentrations varies from location of the wells and its proximity to the coast. The model results indicate that even a 0.6 m increase in sea level (which is the conservative estimate) is likely to impair the vital freshwater resources in many parts of South Florida.     

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

Can California coastal managers plan for sea-level rise in a cost-effective way?

This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.     

Wilderness campsite impacts: Do managers and visitors see them the same?

Human-induced impacts from recreational use of wilderness continue to be a significant management challenge, threatening the integrity of the wilderness resource and the quality of visitor experiences. Campsite impacts are of particular concern to managers. One approach to this problem is the Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) planning system, which focuses attention on the question, “How much change in wilderness conditions is acceptable?” The research reported here compares and contrasts wilderness manager and visitor perceptions of theacceptability of different levels of campsite impacts,amount of impact, and perceptual zoning of wilderness. The results reinforce previous findings regarding differences between managers and visitors. Management implications are discussed.