Adapting to Climate Change at the Local Level: The Spatial Planning Response

Climate change is a major issue for all levels of government, global, national and local. Local authorities' responses to climate change have tended to concentrate on their role in reducing greenhouse gases. However, the scientific consensus is that we also need to adapt to unavoidable climate change. Spatial planning at a local level has a critical anticipatory role to play in promoting robust adaptation. This paper reviews the shift in local authorities' planning policies for climate change adaptation in the UK since 2000, and provides evidence of underlying attitudes amongst planning professionals to climate change. It shows that, while the issue of climate change is becoming recognized with respect to flood risk, the wider implications (for instance, for biodiversity and water resources) are not yet integrated into plans. The reasons for this lie in lack of political support and lack of engagement of the planning profession with climate change networks. But the paper also argues there are difficulties in acknowledging the need for adaptation at the local level, with the short-term horizons of local plans at odds with perceptions of the long-term implications of climate change.     

City Partners Maintain Climate Change Action Despite National Cuts: Residential Energy Efficiency Programme Valued at Local Level

Cities, regional governments and their local utilities are taking leading roles in programmes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Agenda 21 highlighted the need for such local action to achieve the goals of the 1992 Earth Summit and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This trend of increasing local action was demonstrated dramatically in Canada in 2006 when the newly elected federal government cancelled many of the previous government's climate change programmes. The EnerGuide for Houses Program illustrates the growing importance of local decisions where the federal government developed a home energy rating system that was delivered through a range of partnerships across the country. Despite all political parties voting to increase funding for the programme in 2005, the Conservative government cancelled it in May 2006. The response by provincial and local governments was immediate. Their actions revealed the ability and desire among lower-tier governments to sustain popular climate change initiatives. Both the political responses and financial implications are included in the examination of the shift in environmental responsibility from the national to the local sphere.     

City Partners Maintain Climate Change Action Despite National Cuts: Residential Energy Efficiency Programme Valued at Local Level

Cities, regional governments and their local utilities are taking leading roles in programmes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Agenda 21 highlighted the need for such local action to achieve the goals of the 1992 Earth Summit and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This trend of increasing local action was demonstrated dramatically in Canada in 2006 when the newly elected federal government cancelled many of the previous government's climate change programmes. The EnerGuide for Houses Program illustrates the growing importance of local decisions where the federal government developed a home energy rating system that was delivered through a range of partnerships across the country. Despite all political parties voting to increase funding for the programme in 2005, the Conservative government cancelled it in May 2006. The response by provincial and local governments was immediate. Their actions revealed the ability and desire among lower-tier governments to sustain popular climate change initiatives. Both the political responses and financial implications are included in the examination of the shift in environmental responsibility from the national to the local sphere.     

Options for National Parks and Reserves for Adapting to Climate Change

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.     

From Spatial to Local: The Impact of the European Union on Local Authority Planning in the UK

In 1998 the Minister for the Regions, Regeneration and Planning issued a statement which argued that the European context for planning had been largely missing from the planning system in England. This paper explores the impact of European Union (EU) membership on the practice of local authority planning in the UK. The research was based on nine local planning authorities in England, Scotland and Wales. The results indicate that EU membership has exerted a direct and indirect influence on planning at the local level. A classification of EU influences on local planning activities is developed. The research also indicates that the scope and structure of the UK planning system are being influenced by EU membership. There is considerable emphasis on the role of planning as a tool for sustainable development, and the development of environmental quality standards, coupled with existing policies in the sphere of nature conservation, present a challenge to the traditional approach of the UK planning system of balancing all material considerations.     

Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO₂ emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.     

Local Governance and Climate Change: Reflections on the Swedish Experience

Abstract

The focus of this article is the Swedish experience of local governance and climate change, including mitigation and adaptation. The municipal response to these two challenges is set within a broader policy context that acknowledges Sweden as a pioneer in environmental governance, including its comparatively high ambitions with regard to the reduction of greenhouse ga emissions. Central–local relations in climate policy are analysed, and climate change mitigation and adaptation are exemplified by some snapshots of municipal initiatives, including the popular habit of networking between municipalities within as well as across national borders. In conclusion we briefly evaluate the Swedish local governance experience of climate change mitigation and adaptation to date as characterized by radical rhetoric and ambitious goals combined with a lot of promising initiatives, although still with fairly modest results in terms of tangible outcomes. Finally, we reflect upon what we consider to be the most important questions for future research on local governance and climate change.     

Local Governance and Climate Change: Reflections on the Swedish Experience

The focus of this article is the Swedish experience of local governance and climate change, including mitigation and adaptation. The municipal response to these two challenges is set within a broader policy context that acknowledges Sweden as a pioneer in environmental governance, including its comparatively high ambitions with regard to the reduction of greenhouse ga emissions. Central-local relations in climate policy are analysed, and climate change mitigation and adaptation are exemplified by some snapshots of municipal initiatives, including the popular habit of networking between municipalities within as well as across national borders. In conclusion we briefly evaluate the Swedish local governance experience of climate change mitigation and adaptation to date as characterized by radical rhetoric and ambitious goals combined with a lot of promising initiatives, although still with fairly modest results in terms of tangible outcomes. Finally, we reflect upon what we consider to be the most important questions for future research on local governance and climate change.     

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20–30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977–2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers’ perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.     

Adapting to Climate Change on Western Public Lands: Addressing the Ecological Effects of Domestic, Wild, and Feral Ungulates

Climate change affects public land ecosystems and services throughout the American West and these effects are projected to intensify. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, adaptation strategies for public lands are needed to reduce anthropogenic stressors of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to help native species and ecosystems survive in an altered environment. Historical and contemporary livestock production—the most widespread and long-running commercial use of public lands—can alter vegetation, soils, hydrology, and wildlife species composition and abundances in ways that exacerbate the effects of climate change on these resources. Excess abundance of native ungulates (e.g., deer or elk) and feral horses and burros add to these impacts. Although many of these consequences have been studied for decades, the ongoing and impending effects of ungulates in a changing climate require new management strategies for limiting their threats to the long-term supply of ecosystem services on public lands. Removing or reducing livestock across large areas of public land would alleviate a widely recognized and long-term stressor and make these lands less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Where livestock use continues, or where significant densities of wild or feral ungulates occur, management should carefully document the ecological, social, and economic consequences (both costs and benefits) to better ensure management that minimizes ungulate impacts to plant and animal communities, soils, and water resources. Reestablishing apex predators in large, contiguous areas of public land may help mitigate any adverse ecological effects of wild ungulates.     

Stakeholder Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts at the Regional Scale: Implications for the Effectiveness of Regional and Local Responses

Interviews and three workshops with a wide range of stakeholders to explore their perceptions of climate change impacts and responses were conducted in two English regions (East Anglia and north-west England) as part of a UK government-funded research project on the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the following domains: biodiversity, the coastal zone, agriculture and water resources. The findings suggest that whilst local and regional impacts are of considerable interest to regional stakeholders, their ability to respond through adapted policy and practice depends upon their existing frames of reference with respect to their understanding of the policy- and decision-making systems, and the operation of current institutional processes and response mechanisms. The authors use the empirical and conceptual findings to support the notion of the co-production of knowledge with institutional frameworks and processes.     

Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.     

Climate Change and Planning and Consultation for the UK Aviation White Paper

This note discusses environmental aspects of the planning and consultation process undertaken for the UK aviation White Paper. The process as a whole has involved some three years of forecasting and assessment of the operational, economic and environmental implications of some 28 options for airport expansion at 14 UK locations. Unconstrained passenger demand forecasts have been used as a basis for the planning and consultation, and a mitigation approach to environment has predominated. This is inadequate, given the climate impacts of the forecast aviation expansion. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction should be a high priority in transport infrastructure planning, not the subject of post-hoc analysis.     

东北地区典型农区土地利用变化对农业扩张和气候变化的响应研究

大规模的农业扩张和全球气候变化导致东北地区发生剧烈的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。本研究分析了研究区1976—2008年的土地利用变化和生长季各月气温的变化趋势,并结合农业扩张程度,探究LUCC对农业扩张和气候变化的响应,为指导农业发展规划和保障国家粮食安全提供理论依据。结果表明,1976—2008年农田面积逐步增加,生长季气温一直呈上升趋势。1976—2001年生长季气温的上升趋势不稳定,气温变化程度较大;2001—2008年,农业扩张放缓,生长季气温上升趋势显著,且上升趋势一直增加,气温变化比上一时期更稳定;且这两个时期农业扩张和气候变化对土地利用强度的影响在南北和东西方向上均存在明显差异。     

Governing Climate Adaptation in the Local Arena: Challenges of Risk Management and Planning in Sweden

This paper directs attention to conditions for climate adaptation as an important part of governing climate change in the local arena. Empirical focus is put on attempts to manage flood risks by means of risk management and planning in two Swedish municipalities. Following the need to widen our understanding of how, when and under what conditions climate adaptation occurs, three challenges are particularly emphasized from the case studies: facing the safety vs. scenery conflict where political priorities and reducing societal vulnerabilities prove difficult; the process of deciding what to adapt to, in which the troublesome role of knowledge is striking; and finally, taking responsibility for measures of flood protection. At the end of the paper, analytical generalizations illustrate the need to give increased attention to institutional challenges and challenges emanating from the science-policy interface in order to come to terms with the implementation deficit in governing climate change in the local arena.     

Governing Climate Adaptation in the Local Arena: Challenges of Risk Management and Planning in Sweden

Abstract

This paper directs attention to conditions for climate adaptation as an important part of governing climate change in the local arena. Empirical focus is put on attempts to manage flood risks by means of risk management and planning in two Swedish municipalities. Following the need to widen our understanding of how, when and under what conditions climate adaptation occurs, three challenges are particularly emphasized from the case studies: facing the safety vs. scenery conflict where political priorities and reducing societal vulnerabilities prove difficult; the process of deciding what to adapt to, in which the troublesome role of knowledge is striking; and finally, taking responsibility for measures of flood protection. At the end of the paper, analytical generalizations illustrate the need to give increased attention to institutional challenges and challenges emanating from the science–policy interface in order to come to terms with the implementation deficit in governing climate change in the local arena.     

Constrained Choice and Climate Change Mitigation in US Agriculture: Structural Barriers to a Climate Change Ethic

This paper examines structural barriers to the adoption of climate change mitigation practices and the evolution of a climate change ethic among American farmers. It examines how seed corn contracts in Michigan constrain the choices of farmers and allow farmers to rationalize the over-application of fertilizer and associated water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Seed corn contracts use a competitive “tournament” system where farmers are rewarded for maximizing yields. Interviews and a focus group were used to understand fertilizer over-application and barriers to participating in a climate change mitigation program. Results indicate that farmers agree that they over-apply fertilizer but would be unlikely to participate in a mitigation program due to their contracts and lack of support from seed corn companies. Because only a few companies control access to the seed corn market, farmers feel they have few choices. Farmers rationalized their practices as their only option given the competitive nature of their contracts and blamed other sources of pollution. Despite increasing efforts to educate farmers about climate change, structural barriers will continue to constrain participation in mitigation efforts and the development of a climate change ethic.