Validation of a hybrid forecasting system for the ozone concentrations over the Paris area

A simplified hybrid statistical-deterministic chemistry-transport model, is used in real time for the prediction of ozone in the area of Paris during Summer 1999. We present here a statistical validation of this experiment. We distinguish the forecasts in the urban area from forecasts in the pollution plume downwind of the city. The validation of model forecasts, up to 3 days ahead, is performed against ground based observations within and up to 50 km outside of Paris. In the urban area, ozone levels are fairly well forecast, with correlation coefficients between forecast and observations ranging between 0.7 and 0.8 and root mean square errors in the range 15–20 μg m⁻³ at short lead times. While the bias of urban forecast is very low, the largest peaks are somehow underestimated. The ozone plume amplitude is generally well reproduced, even at long lead times (root mean square errors of about 20–30 μg m⁻³), while the direction of the plume is only captured at short lead times (about 70% of the time). The model has difficulties in forecasting the direction of the plume under stagnant weather conditions. We estimate the model ability to forecast concentrations above 180 μg m⁻³, which are of practical relevance to air quality managers. It is found that about 60% of these events are well forecast, even at long lead times, while the exact monitoring station where the exceedance is observed can only be forecast at short lead times. Finally, we found that about half of the forecast error is due to the error in the estimation of the boundary conditions, which are forecast by a simple linear regression model here.     

Mesoscale modelling of vertical atmospheric transport in the Alps associated with the advection of a tropopause fold – a winter ozone episode

The role of vertical atmospheric transport (VAT) for a winter ozone episode (January 1988) in the Alps, observed both on the mountain crest (3580 m asl) and in the lee of the Alps (209 m asl), is investigated. Numerical simulations were carried out with a doubly nested mesoscale model (14 km horizontal resolution), characterised by a refined orography scheme. A comparison between the modelled vertical profiles with features observed in the aerological soundings over Payerne indicated that the model is able to reproduce the fold in the Alps down to 650 hPa. Frictional processes are found to be responsible for the fragmentation of the lower parts of the fold when it is advected over the mountains, thus enhancing ozone concentrations at the mountain crest with likely cross-tropopause mixing. Vertically propagating gravity waves and strong mesoscale vertical winds (nordfoehn) are responsible for the further downward transport of ozone-rich air to the lower troposphere. This mechanism leads to ozone concentrations up to 70 ppb(v) in the leeside. The study is important because tropospheric ozone trends in the lee of the Alps have been inferred, in the past, from ozone peaks associated with such nordfoehn conditions. It is now shown that nordfoehn may entrain air which has been recently exchanged across the tropopause.     

An unusual springtime ozone episode at high elevation in the Swiss Alps: contributions both from cross-tropopause exchange and from the boundary layer

An unusually “smooth” springtime ozone episode (maximum 97 ppb(v)) at the Jungfraujoch Observatory (3580 m asl) in the Swiss Alps is described. Analysis of meteorological variables is combined with back-trajectory analysis, and numerical simulations from a mesoscale model nested within a limited area model to examine the origin of the episode. Cross-tropopause exchange on the western flank of an upper trough, deep convection in a Gulf of Genoa cyclone, and the northwards advection of boundary-layer air (with possible in situ photochemistry) all combined to produce the highest ozone concentration of the year (1987) at the mountain site.     

A review of surface ozone in the polar regions

Surface ozone records from ten polar research stations were investigated for the dependencies of ozone on radiative processes, snow-photochemisty, and synoptic and stratospheric transport. A total of 146 annual data records for the Arctic sites Barrow, Alaska; Summit, Greenland; Alert, Canada; Zeppelinfjellet, Norway; and the Antarctic stations Halley, McMurdo, Neumayer, Sanae, Syowa, and South Pole were analyzed. Mean ozone at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stations (excluding Summit) is ∼5 ppbv higher than in Antarctica. Statistical analysis yielded best estimates for the projected year 2005 median annual ozone mixing ratios, which for the Arctic stations were 33.5 ppbv at Alert, 28.6 ppbv at Barrow, 46.3 ppbv ppb at Summit and 33.7 ppbv at Zeppelinfjellet. For the Antarctic stations the corresponding ozone mixing ratios were 21.6 ppbv at Halley, 27.0 ppbv at McMurdo, 24.9 ppbv at Neumayer, 27.2 ppbv at Sanae, 29.4 ppbv at South Pole, and 25.8 ppbv at Syowa. At both Summit (3212 m asl) and South Pole (2830 m asl), annual mean ozone is higher than at the lower elevation and coastal stations. A trend analysis revealed that all sites in recent years have experienced low to moderate increases in surface ozone ranging from 0.02 to 0.26 ppbv yr⁻¹, albeit none of these changes were found to be statistically significant trends. A seasonal trend analysis showed above-average increases in ozone during the spring and early summer periods for both Arctic (Alert, Zeppelinfjellet) and Antarctic (McMurdo, Neumayer, South Pole) sites. In contrast, at Barrow, springtime ozone has been declining. All coastal stations experience springtime episodes with rapid depletion of ozone in the boundary layer, attributable to photochemically catalyzed ozone depletion from halogen chemistry. This effect is most obvious at Barrow, followed by Alert. Springtime depletion episodes are less pronounced at Antarctic stations. At South Pole, during the Antarctic spring and summer, photochemical ozone production yields frequent episodes with enhanced surface ozone. Other Antarctic stations show similar, though less frequent spring and summertime periods with enhanced ozone. The Antarctic data provide evidence that austral spring and summertime ozone production in Antarctica is widespread, respectively, affects all stations at least through transport events. This ozone production contributes to a several ppbv enhancement in the annual mean ozone over the Antarctic plateau; however, it is not the determining process in the Antarctic seasonal ozone cycle. Although Summit and South Pole have many similarities in their environmental conditions, this ozone production does not appear to be of equal importance at Summit. Amplitudes of diurnal, summertime ozone cycles at these polar sites are weaker than at lower latitude locations. Amplitudes of seasonal ozone changes are larger in the Southern Hemisphere (by ∼5 ppbv), most likely due to less summertime photochemical ozone loss and more transport of ozone-rich air to the Arctic during the NH spring and summer months.     

Ozone assessment in the southern part of the Alps

In this paper ozone measurements carried out at six alpine and prealpine sites, located in the Italian region of Central Alps are shown. The stations are placed at altitudes between 800 and 1900 m a.s.l., far away from local sources of pollution. Ozone concentrations appear to be quite uniform, with summer mean values varying from 40 to 47 ppb and winter ones from 19 to 35 ppb. The number of hours exceeding the 75 and 100 ppb WHO thresholds and the AOT40 (Average Over Threshold 40 ppb of ozone) are evaluated for the growing season. The temporal variability of weekly ozone cycle at alpine stations provides useful informations to assess an emission control strategy.     

Impact of biogenic VOC emissions on a tropical cyclone-related ozone episode in the Pearl River Delta region,China

For quantitative estimate of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (BVOCs) in South China and their impact on the regional atmospheric chemistry, a 3-day tropical cyclone-related ozone episode was modeled using chemical transport model CMAQ, which was driven by the mesoscale meteorological model MM5. Hourly biogenic emission inventories were constructed using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. The simulation results show good agreement with observation data in air temperature, ozone and NO_x levels. The estimated biogenic emissions of isoprene, terpene, and other reactive VOCs (ORVOCs) during this tropical cyclone-related episode are 8500, 3400, and 11 300 ton day⁻¹, respectively. The ratio of isoprene to the total BVOCs was 36.4%. Two test runs were carried out with one incorporated biogenic emissions and the other without. The simulations show that Guangdong province, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, was the area most reactive to biogenic emissions in South China. More ozone was produced in all layers under 1500 m when biogenic emissions were included in comparison to that without BVOCs. The net formation of ozone from 9:00 to 15:00 h was the highest near the surface and could reach 38 ppb, which include 4 ppb attributed to biogenic impact. The enhanced ozone due to biogenic emissions first appeared in the PRD region and slowly spread to a greater area in South China. Process analysis indicated that the surface ozone budget was dominated by the vertical transport and dry deposition. The horizontal transport and gas-phase chemical production were relatively small in the surface layer. Presumably, ozone was produced in upper layers within the atmospheric boundary layer and convected down to surface where it is destroyed. When BVOCs was included, apart from the enhancement of gas-phase chemical production of ozone, both the surface deposition and vertical transport were also augmented.     

An exceptional ozone episode in northern Fennoscandia

Ground-based observations of ozone have been performed at three sites in northern Fennoscandia, Karasjok, Esrange and Pallas. The sites are located in remote, unpolluted areas far away from the European source regions, and thus representing the northern hemispheric background. Events of photochemical episodes are rare. However, on 19 and 20 April 2003 two episodes with unusually high ozone values were measured at these stations. The highest values of 85.4 and 83.5 ppbv were observed at Esrange and Pallas, respectively, on the 20th April. A simultaneous increase of other pollutants, e.g. nitrate, supports the idea that this was an anthropogenic episode to the far north. A third episode was seen on the 21st at Esrange and Pallas but not at Karasjok.Results from a source–receptor analysis with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART show southern continental Europe as the main source of the polluted air masses in connection with the enhanced ozone, whereas in between transport of cleaner air masses from the North-Atlantic took place. The highest ozone peaks measured at Esrange and Pallas can most likely be traced back to transport of pollution from the Iberian peninsula superimposed on pollution transported from the Northern Mediterranean.     

Surface ozone background in the United States: Canadian and Mexican pollution influences

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with 1° × 1° horizontal resolution to quantify the effects of anthropogenic emissions from Canada, Mexico, and outside North America on daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations in US surface air. Simulations for summer 2001 indicate mean North American and US background concentrations of 26 ± 8 ppb and 30 ± 8 ppb, as obtained by eliminating anthropogenic emissions in North America vs. in the US only. The US background never exceeds 60 ppb in the model. The Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancement averages 3 ± 4 ppb in the US in summer but can be occasionally much higher in downwind regions of the northeast and southwest, peaking at 33 ppb in upstate New York (on a day with 75 ppb total ozone) and 18 ppb in southern California (on a day with 68 ppb total ozone). The model is successful in reproducing the observed variability of ozone in these regions, including the occurrence and magnitude of high-ozone episodes influenced by transboundary pollution. We find that exceedances of the 75 ppb US air quality standard in eastern Michigan, western New York, New Jersey, and southern California are often associated with Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancements in excess of 10 ppb. Sensitivity simulations with 2020 emission projections suggest that Canadian pollution influence in the Northeast US will become comparable in magnitude to that from domestic power plants.     

The impact of an 8 h ozone air quality standard on ROG and NOx controls in Southern California

The new National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone in the US uses 8 h averaging for the concentration. Based on the 1993 ambient data for Southern California, 8 h averaging has a moderate tendency to move the location of the peak ozone concentration east of the location of the peak 1 h ozone concentration. Reducing the area-wide peak 8 h ozone concentration to 80 ppb would require an effective reduction of the area-wide peak 1 h ozone concentration to around 90 ppb. The Urban Airshed Model with improved numerical solvers, meteorological input based on a mesoscale model and an adjusted emissions inventory was used to study the effect of reactive organic gases (ROG) and NO_x controls on daily-maximum and peak 8 h ozone concentrations under the 26–28 August 1987 ozone episodic conditions in Southern California. The NO_x disbenefit remains prominent for the case of 8 h ozone concentration but is somewhat less prominent, especially when areal ozone exposure is considered, than the case for 1 h ozone concentration. The role of two indicators – O₃/NO_y and H₂O₂/HNO₃ – for NO_x- and ROG-sensitivity for 1 and 8 h ozone concentrations were also studied. In general, the indicator trends are consistent with model predictions, but the discriminating power of the indicators is rather limited.     

Ozone episodes in urban Hong Kong 1994–1999

Summer pollution episodes in Hong Kong are related to the passage of tropical storms close to the territory. Between 1994 and 1999, there were six territory-wide ozone episodes in Hong Kong during which the Hong Kong Air Quality Objective for ozone (240 μg m⁻³, 1 h) was violated. The maximum O₃ concentration for the period was 334 μg m⁻³ recorded in August 1999. Synoptically, tropical storms were in the vicinity on all the episode days. Northwesterly/westerly winds induced by the storms are believed to cause ozone precursor emissions from local power plants in the western part of Hong Kong to impact the territory, and at the same time allowing the import of emissions from upwind sources along the mainland coast. Other important meteorological factors that contribute to the occurrence of the episode events include: stable atmospheres, morning break-up of nocturnal inversions, low winds, strong solar radiation and high temperatures. Trajectory analysis of airflows at 850 hPa confirms the long-range pollutant transport. The strong correlation between non-sea-salt sulphate (NS-SO₄) and selenium for the summer of 1999 indicates that the main source of high levels of NS-SO₄ in summer in Hong Kong is coal combustion. The correlation between arsenic (As) and vanadium (V) for the summers of 1996–1999 suggests a concomitant influence of coal and residual oil combustion in the region.     

The evolution of photochemical smog in a power plant plume

The evolution of photochemical smog in a plant plume was investigated with the aid of an instrumented helicopter. Air samples were taken in the plume of the Cumberland Power Plant, located in central Tennessee, during the afternoon of 16 July 1995 as part of the Southern Oxidants Study – Nashville Middle Tennessee Ozone Study. Twelve cross-wind air sampling traverses were made at six distance groups from 35 to 116 km from the source. During the sampling period the winds were from the west–northwest and the plume drifted towards the city of Nashville TN. Ten of the traverses were made upwind of the city, where the power plant plume was isolated, and two traverses downwind of the city when the plumes were possibly mixed. The results revealed that even six hours after the release, excess ozone production was limited to the edges of the plume. Only when the plume was sufficiently dispersed, but still upwind of Nashville, was excess ozone (up to 109 ppbv, 50–60 ppbv above background levels) produced in the center of the plume. The concentrations image of the plume and a Lagrangian particle model suggests that portions of the power plant plume mixed with the urban plume. The mixed urban power plant plume began to regenerate O₃ that peaked at 120 ppbv at a short distance (15–25 km) downwind of Nashville. Ozone productivity (the ratio of excess O₃ to NO_y and NO_z) in the isolated plume was significantly lower compared with that found in the city plume. The production of nitrate, a chain termination product, was significantly higher in the power plant plume compared to the mixed plume, indicating shorter chain length of the photochemical smog chain reaction mechanism.     

A model for predicting maximum and 8 h average ozone in Houston

The objective of this research was to develop a statistical model to predict one day in advance both the maximum and 8 h (10 am–5 pm) average ozone for Houston (TX). A loess/generalized additive model (GAM) approach was taken to model development. Ozone data (1983–1991) from ten stations in the immediate Houston area were used in the study. The meteorological data came from the Houston International Airport. The models were developed using data for April through October for 1983–1987 and 1989–1990. Forecasts were developed for 1988 and 1991. The final model, which was multiplicative in nature, contained three interaction terms for the west/east and south/north wind components (average of hourly values from 8 pm to 5 am, 6 am to 9 am, and 10 am to 5 pm). Opaque cloud cover (averaged over the period 10  am to 5 pm), yesterday’s maximum ozone, today’s maximum temperature and morning mixing depth were also important variables in the model.Individual forecasts were generated for all ten stations in the Houston area using observed meteorology. In addition forecasts were produced for three measures of the network as a whole. The root-mean-square prediction error for the 8 h average forecasts ranged from 13.2 to 16.3 ppb (with R² ranging from 0.66 to 0.73) for the individual stations and from 18.5 to 22.0 ppb (with R² ranging from 0.61 to 0.68) for maximum ozone. A detailed examination was undertaken for a day on which the forecast was much too low.     

Spatial variations of ground level ozone concentrations in areas of different scales

The spatial variation of ground level ozone concentrations was investigated for areas of three different scales: (1) an air quality management district (a region about 100×70 km²) in northern Taiwan, (2) the neighborhood (about 2 km in radius) of an air quality monitoring station, and (3) an open field (about 400×600 m²) surrounded by 3- and 4-story buildings in an elementary school. Analysis of data on hourly ozone concentration, obtained at 13 m above the ground at 21 monitoring stations in the air quality management district, showed that the stations downwind of the urban center in the district had significantly higher ozone concentrations. Measurements for 8-h average ozone concentrations at 1.5 m above the ground by passive samplers showed that, in a flat area about 2 km in radius, the ratios of the ozone concentration at open areas to that at the monitoring station (0.86–0.93) were significantly higher than those obtained at areas with higher traffic flow and density of buildings (0.60–0.68). For the open field in an elementary school, the 8-h average ozone concentrations at 1.5 m above the ground at sites less than 10 m from the nearest building were considerably lower than those at sites farther away from buildings. The results indicated that, in areas of small scales, the spatial distributions of ozone concentration were highly non-uniform and there were appreciable day-to-day variability in spatial distribution. Such variability should be taken into account in determining the extent to which an individual is exposed to ozone.     

Trace gas variations at Cape Point,South Africa,during May 1997 following a regional biomass burning episode

During the continuous monitoring of atmospheric parameters at the station Cape Point (34°S, 18°E), a smoke plume originating from a controlled fire of 30-yr-old fynbos was observed on 6 May 1997. For this episode, which was associated with a nocturnal inversion and offshore airflow, atmospheric parameters (solar radiation and meteorological data) were considered and the levels of various trace gases compared with those measured at Cape Point in maritime air. Concentration maxima in the morning of 6 May for CO₂, CO, CH₄ and O₃ amounted to 370.3 ppm, 491 ppb, 1730 ppb and 47 ppb, respectively, whilst the mixing ratios of several halocarbons (F-11, F-12, F-113, CCl₄ and CH₃CCl₃) remained at background levels. In the case of CO, the maritime background level for this period was exceeded by a factor of 9.8. Differences in ozone levels of up to 5 ppb between air intakes at 4 and 30 m above the station (located at 230 m above sea level) indicated stratification of the air advected to Cape Point during the plume event. Aerosols within the smoke plume caused the signal of global solar radiation and UV–A to be attenuated from 52.4 to 13.0 mW cm⁻² and from 2.3 to 1.3 mW cm⁻², respectively, 5 h after the trace gases had reached their maxima. Emission ratios (ERs) calculated for CO and CH₄ relative to CO₂ mixing ratios amounted to 0.042 and 0.0040, respectively, representing one of the first results for fires involving fynbos. The CO ER is somewhat lower than those given in the literature for African savanna fires (average ER=0.048), whilst for CH₄ the ER falls within the range of ERs reported for the flaming (0.0030) and smouldering phases (0.0055) of savanna fires. Non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) data obtained from a grab sample collected during the plume event were compared to background levels. The highest ERs (ΔNMHC/ΔCH₄) have been obtained for the C₂–C₃ hydrocarbons (e.g. ethene at 229.3 ppt ppb⁻¹), whilst the C₄–C₇ hydrocarbons were characterised by the lowest ERs (e.g. n-hexane at 1.0 and n-pentane at 0.8 ppt ppb⁻¹).     

Impact of large scale circulation on European summer surface ozone and consequences for modelling forecast

In this study, we investigate the benefit for European ozone simulation of using day-to-day varying chemical boundary conditions produced by a global chemical weather forecast platform instead of climatological monthly means at the frontiers of a regional model. We performed two simulations over Europe using the regional (0.5 × 0.5°) CHIMERE CTM forced by global scale simulations based on the LMDz-INCA CTM. For summer 2005, ozone differences exceeding 20 ppb can be punctually found between these two simulations in the borders of the domain. The mean of the differences ranges between 0 and 3 ppb beyond 15° of the frontiers of the regional model.Correlations with ground-based ozone measurements at more than 400 stations are slightly increased by the use of daily boundary conditions. The simulation of the temporal variability is significantly enhanced in particular for the daily means and daily maxima. As expected, the gain is higher at the borders of the regional domain.The change of percentile distribution shows that the net impact of high temporal resolution boundary conditions is not of major concern for surface ozone peaks which are mainly due to local photochemistry. The use of daily boundary conditions is however necessary to correctly simulate concentrations in the 20–35 ppb range which are of crucial interest for human and vegetation exposure effects.     

Nonlinear dynamical analysis of ground level ozone concentrations at different temporal scales

The nonlinear dynamical analysis of ground level ozone concentration is carried out by using correlation integral method to examine its scale invariance property. The dynamics of the time series is often studied at one temporal scale. It is assumed that if the time series is determined to be chaotic at one temporal scale, its behavior at another scale can be determined as the scale shifts are allowed due to scale invariance property. The actual dynamics at other scales is however not yet analyzed. The assumption of scale invariance of the time series at different time scales is tested in this study. The analysis is carried out for ground ozone levels observed during 2006 at two sites of different land use characteristics, as traffic and mixed-use in Delhi at four temporal scales as 1 h, 4 h, 8 h and 24 h. The chaotic nature is observed for the ozone concentration with 1 h and 4 h frequency, whereas at 8 h and 24 h time scale, the ozone concentration shows random behavior. As expected, a decrease in the variability is observed in the ozone levels with increase in the scales from 1 h to 24 h. The results indicated the temporal scale shifts are allowed from 1 h to 4 h resolution and vice versa. The ozone time series at 8 h and 24 h scalings however, should be dealt separately. Further analysis for corresponding NO₂ concentration at two sites suggested finite d₂ for 1 h, 4 h and 8 h scalings with higher value at traffic site than that at mixed-use site. The analysis also indicated same degrees of freedom for ozone and NO₂ concentration at traffic site whereas at mixed-use site the number of variables governing the NO₂ pollution are less than the ozone concentration.     

A comparison of operational Lagrangian particle and adaptive puff models for plume dispersion forecasting

Transport and dispersion of pollutants in the lower atmosphere are predicted by using both a Lagrangian particle model (LPM) and an adaptive puff model (APM2) coupled to the same mesoscale meteorological prediction model PMETEO. LPM and APM2 apply the same numerical solutions for plume rise; but, for advection and plume growth, LPM uses a stochastic surrogate to the pollutant conservation equation, and APM2 applies interpolated winds and standard deviations from the meteorological model, using a step-wise Gaussian approach. The results of both models in forecasting the SO₂ ground level concentration (glc) around the 1400 MWe coal-fired As Pontes Power Plant are compared under unstable conditions. In addition, meteorological and SO₂ glc numerical results are compared to field measurements provided by 17 fully automated SO₂ glc remote stations, nine meteorological towers and one Remtech PA-3 SODAR, from a meteorological and air quality monitoring network located 30 km around the power plant.     

Trends in near-surface ozone concentrations in Switzerland: the 1990s

A time series analysis of ozone monitoring data from several locations in Switzerland from 1991 to 1999 is presented. Different methods are used to address changes in the ozone level during these years and to account for the influence of changing meteorological conditions. The results show a slight decrease of the peaks but a highly significant increase of the mean value of around 0.5–0.9 ppb yr⁻¹. The frequency distribution has changed in the sense that very low values have become less frequent and that there is a strong increase in frequency of occurrence of half-hourly mean values between about 45 and 55 ppb. A selection procedure reveals slight tendencies towards different trends of afternoon ozone peaks in summer depending on weather and pollution situations. Ozone peaks tend to decrease on fair weather days at rural sites (but increase at urban sites) and show a small increase on cloudy and windy days. A non-linear regression model is used to estimate trends of summertime afternoon ozone peaks in the presence of meteorological variability. In the model, the long-term signal is additively split into a linear part and a part which is modulated by global radiation. The coefficients for both terms are statistically significant at many sites, with an increasing linear trend at the sites north of the Alps of around 1 ppb yr⁻¹ and a decrease of ozone peaks under fair weather conditions relative to cloudy conditions. When additionally considering the effect of precursor concentrations in the regression models, both trends are weakened, which means that they can partly be explained by changes in local to regional emissions. However, at the sites north of the Alps remains a tendency towards a positive linear “base trend” of around 0.4 ppb yr⁻¹. This could possibly be due to increasing background ozone concentrations.     

Ozone and UV-B variations at Ispra from 1993 to 1997

An analysis of the variability of the total ozone column at Ispra (Italy) has been performed to ascertain if, even in a short-time interval of 5 years (1993–1997), a decline of the monthly mean ozone values could be demonstrated. A linear fit of the data displays a decrease of 0.21% per year with a mean value equal to 319±2 D.U. and an amplitude of the annual cycle of about 10% of the mean. A linear regression of the surface monthly mean ozone values has also been performed showing a decreasing trend (−1% per year) that could contribute, even if for a very small amount, to the decline of the total ozone values. Ispra monthly mean total ozone data have been compared with those of three stations located within 2° latitude and 3° longitude from Ispra (Haute Provence, Hohenpeissenberg and Arosa). A linear fit of the data shows some discrepancies in the ozone changes, which can be attributed to the limited length of the observational period.An analysis has been performed to verify if the variation of ozone at Ispra is in agreement with that of the solar UV measured at a wavelength (305 nm) where the ozone absorption is still remarkable. The results, taken at a fixed solar zenith angle of 68°, show a clear anticorrelation between the monthly mean values of UV and the corresponding values of the total ozone column; the linear fit of the UV data displays an increase of 2.0% per year, much higher than expected from the ozone decrease, and a mean value of 1.4±0.1 mW m^-2 nm^-1.     

Ozone production from Grenoble city during the August 2003 heat wave

The heat wave from 1 to 16 August 2003 is considered in the city of Grenoble (French Alps). The modelling system (PREVALP) is based on several models operating on nested domains: MM5 for dynamics, CHIMERE for chemistry (18 km and 6 km grid size) and METPHOMOD for both dynamics and chemistry (2 km grid size). The analysis of the results shows that during the heat wave, the mixing layer is thicker, up to 3500 m agl, hence inducing transport of ozone to high altitude. Two regimes were diagnosed: (1) a freely developing convective layer, (2) a layer trapped under south wind which makes ozone precursors accumulate in the city. Local ozone production is estimated to be 40% of the plume maximum in case (2) and only 30% in case (1). Sensitivity analysis by step increase for temperature at the boundary of the inner domain shows the non-linearity of the response; in this case most of the effect comes from chemistry. By changing biogenic emission significant changes are observed in restricted areas.