南方冬季覆盖作物的碳蓄积及其对水稻产量的影响

冬季覆盖作物为在冬闲季节以减少土壤裸露、增加生物产量、抑制硝态氮淋溶等为目的而种植的作物。南方水稻种植区地处热带、亚热带湿润地区有利于冬闲覆盖作物生产。冬季覆盖作物在增加生物产量的同时,可以增加稻田生态系统碳蓄积效应。本研究在南方水稻种植区选择冬闲季覆盖作物黑麦草、紫云英、油菜,以冬闲田为照进行生产比较试验,考察不同覆盖作物碳蓄积能力及对后茬作物产量的影响。结果表明,黑麦草地上部碳蓄积为4044.9kg·hm-2,地下部碳蓄积为1533.7kg·hm-2,紫云英地上部、地下部碳蓄积分别为1799.6kg·hm-2,1023.8kg·hm-2,油菜的分别为1023.8kg·hm-2,339.0kg·hm-2;黑麦草的碳蓄积量显著高于紫云英和油菜,各覆盖作物处理碳蓄积量均显著高于冬闲田。黑麦草地下根系表现强大的碳蓄积能力,可以提高土壤碳汇效应。不同覆盖作物-双季稻稻田生态系统,冬季覆盖作物残茬短期内对主作物的产量因素均没有显著的影响。     

Aristolochic acid I: an investigation into the role of food crops contamination,as a potential natural exposure pathway

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Aristolochic acid I (AAI) is a potent nephrotoxic and carcinogenic compound produced by plants of the Aristolochiaceae family and thoroughly investigated as...     

施用硫磺和ALA对碱性盐土上作物生长发育及土壤性质的影响

寻求行之有效的盐渍化土壤改良措施,对于农业可持续发展具有重要理论和实践意义.采用盆栽试验,探讨了施用硫磺和喷施ALA对碱性盐土上冬小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)和玉米(Zea mays L.)幼苗生长发育及土壤性质变化的影响.结果表明,无论施用石膏、硫磺还是喷施ALA,对于小麦生长均有明显促进作用,其中硫磺效果更为明显;施用硫磺显著提高了后一茬玉米的出苗率,同时土壤中SO42-、Ca2+、Mg2-含量显著增加,但施硫降低土壤pH的作用较为有限;而施用ALA对土壤pH和盐分均无明显影响.这表明施加硫磺可以使盐渍化土壤的性质发生明显改变;ALA的效果则必须在作物苗期生长良好的前提下,通过提高作物自身的抗盐性来实现.     

Some effects of food density on the growth and behaviour of plaice larvae

The effect of food density on the growth, survival, and swimming activity of plaice larvae (Pleuronectes platessa L.) was investigated under controlled laboratory conditions. Suboptimal food concentrations decrease the growth of the height of the body musculature relative to length, and increase the amount of time spent searching for food. Older larvae are able to withstand much longer periods without food than young larvae. On the basis of these experiments, it is suggested that food limitation in a larval plaice population is likely to result in a concave mortality curve.     

Predators choosing between patches with standing crop: the influence of switching rules and input types

Where prey arriving in a patch are not consumed immediately, they will accumulate. Predators are then presented with a prey density or standing crop that increases through further input, and decreases through the consumption by predators. Firstly, I show that the switching rule of predators has a significant influence on the expected predator equilibrium distribution in such a dynamic system. Three rules are compared; for all rules, analytical solutions are calculated (where possible). To test their plausibility for natural situations, predator distributions are simulated given the assumption that each predator obtains individual patch profitability estimates by using a common learning rule. As long as prey arrive in the patches in constant numbers per time unit, the first rule leads to input matching because predators stop switching when consumption in the two patches is equal. The other two rules, where predators continue to sample both patches even in the equilibrium state, lead to predator distributions where the more profitable patch is underused. The final equilibrium depends on the exact assumptions of the switching rule; however, it is independent of interference. But if the input delivered into a patch is a function of the current prey standing crop (for example in a reproducing prey population), predator and prey distributions will not reach an equilibrium in most cases: either standing crops increase indefinitely, or they approach zero, with all predators concentrating on the better patch. Only a small number of parameter sets show intermediate crops that are reasonably stable. With this input type, only up to 54% of the simulations reach the expected distribution. In a system with competition for dynamic standing crop, it is therefore essential to know the type of input and the switching-rule used by predators to be able to predict equilibrium predator distributions. Received: 17 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 5 November 1995     

Influence of food concentration on the physiological energetics and growth ofOstrea edulis larvae

Feeding, respiration and growth rates of oyster (Ostrea edulis L.) larvae reared at five food levels were measured throughout the entire larval period. Energy budgets were derived as a function of alga (Isochrysis galbana Parke) food concentration. Ingestion rate (IR, cells h^-1) and oxygen consumption rate ( , nl h^-1) were almost isometric functions of larval size [ash-free dry weight, (AFDW, g)], characterized by the equations: IR=803.9 AFDW^1.13 and =4.85 AFDW^1.09. Ingested ration was directly correlated to cell concentration up to a maximum at 200 cells l^-1, with further increases failing to support higher ingestion rates. Likewise, growth rate linearly increased with food ration up to 100 cells l^-1 (max. growth efficiency,K ₁=25%) and reached a maximum at 200 cells l^-1 (growth rate=5.6 m d^-1), with further increases in food not supporting significantly faster growth. Maintenance ration was 2 to 3% daily dry weight (DW); optimum ration increased during larval development from 5 to 20% DW; maximum ration was 20% DW. During larval rearing, an increasing feeding schedule of 50, 100 and 200 cells l^-1 from Days 0, 5 and 10, respectively, is recommended.     

Effects of food type and ration on reproductive maturation and growth of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis

We investigated the effects of food quality and quantity on reproductive maturation and growth of juveniles of Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Müller) in a 22 month laboratory experiment in which we fed sea urchins four diets: (1) kelp (Laminaria spp.) for 6 d wk⁻¹ and mussel (Mytilus spp.) flesh for 1 d wk⁻¹ (KM); (2) kelp for 7 d wk⁻¹ (high ration, KH); (3) kelp for 1 d wk⁻¹ (low ration, KL) and (4) no food other than encrusting coralline algae (NF). At their first and second opportunity for reproduction, all sea urchins in the KM and KH treatments, and most in the KL treatment were reproductively mature, whereas all sea urchins in the NF treatment remained immature. Gonad index differed significantly among all fed treatments at first and second reproduction, and was highest in the KM and lowest in the KL treatment. Gonad index was similar in both sexes at first reproduction, but it was higher in females than in males at second reproduction. Diet had little or no effect on the relative abundance of spermatocytes, spermatozoa, or nutritive phagocytes in testes at first and second reproduction. In ovaries, nutritive phagocytes were significantly more abundant in females in the KM and KH treatments than in the KL treatment at first reproduction, and significantly more abundant in unfed (NF) than fed (KM, KH, KL) females at second reproduction. Mean oocyte size was similar in all fed females at first reproduction, but significantly larger in fed than unfed females at second reproduction. Mean ovum size was similar in all fed females in both reproductive periods. Increase in test diameter was greatest in the KM treatment and smallest in the KL treatment; sea urchins in the NF treatment decreased slightly in size. Survival was 95 to 100% in all fed sea urchins but significantly lower in unfed ones. The feeding rate on kelp was significantly greater in the KL than the KM and KH treatments. In the KM treatment, the feeding rate on kelp increased significantly over a 6 d period after mussel flesh was provided. Our results demonstrate that a diet of high food quality and quantity accelerates reproductive maturation and growth rate, and enhances gonad production and survival in juvenile and young adult S. droebachiensis. These findings contribute to our understanding of the reproductive ecology of S. droebachiensis in habitats with differing food supplies (e.g., kelp beds and barrens). Our results also can be used to improve aquacultural practices for sea urchins. Received: 3 June 1998 / Accepted: 2 February 1999     

Simulating the fate of Florida Snowy Plovers with sea-level rise: Exploring research and management priorities with a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis perspective

Changes in coastal habitats due to sea-level rise provide an uncertain, yet significant threat to shoreline dependent birds. Rising sea levels can cause habitat fragmentation and loss which can result in considerable reduction in their foraging and nesting areas. Computational models and their algorithmic assumptions play an integral role in exploring potential mitigation responses to uncertain and potentially adverse ecological outcomes. The presence of uncertainty in metapopulation models is widely acknowledged but seldom considered in their development and evaluation, specifically the effects of uncertain model inputs on the model outputs. This paper was aimed to (1) quantify the contribution of each uncertain input factor to the uncertainty in the output of a metapopulation model which evaluated the effects of long-term sea-level rise on the population of Snowy Plovers (Charadrius alexandrinus) found in the Gulf Coast of Florida, and (2) determine the ranges of model inputs that produced a specific output for the purpose of formulating environmental management decisions. This was carried out by employing global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA) using two generic (model independent) methods, the qualitative screening Morris method and a quantitative variance-based Sobol’ method coupled with Monte Carlo filtering. The analyses were applied to three density dependence scenarios: assuming a ceiling-type density dependence, assuming a contest-type density dependence, and assuming that density dependence is uncertain as to being ceiling- or contest-dependent. The sources of uncertainty in the outputs depended strongly on the type of density dependence considered in the model. In general, uncertainty in the outputs highly depended on the uncertainty in stage matrix elements (fecundity, adult survival, and juvenile survival), dispersal rate from central areas with low current populations (the “Big Bend” area of Florida) to the northern, panhandle populations, the maximum growth rate, and density dependence type. Our results showed that increasing the maximum growth rate to a value of 1.2 or larger will increase the final average population of Snowy Plovers assuming a contest-type density dependence. Results suggest that studies that further quantify which density dependence relationship best describes Snowy Plover population dynamics should be conducted since this is the main driver of uncertainty in model outcomes. Furthermore, investigating the presence of Snowy Plovers in the Big Bend region may be important for providing connection between the panhandle and peninsula populations.     

Patterns of growth and fluctuating asymmetry: the effects of asymmetrical investment in traits with determinate growth

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA, small and random deviations from perfect symmetry in otherwise bilaterally symmetrical traits) is assumed to depend directly on developmental stability (DS). However, since the processes related to DS operate at a microscopic level, the translation of microscopic errors to the macroscopic character asymmetries (i.e. the DS-FA relation) could be mediated by the cost of growth. To investigate the consequences of this hypothesis, I constructed a model with the following assumptions: the degree of development of a trait depends on the amount of resources allocated to growth, which may differ between individuals and between traits; the cost of growth increases with development, and developmental noise causes random asymmetries in biosynthesis in the two sides of the body. The model predicts that FA follows a parabolic trajectory as growth investment levels increase, regardless of DS. However, depending on the range of variation of investment levels, different relationships (positive, negative or flat) between trait size and asymmetry could be expected. This model may also explain why FA is correlated with the degree of stress in some traits but not in others, and why some traits present a higher level of FA than others. The model also suggests that FA measured on growing traits, at a certain size, could be a more reliable indicator of DS than FA measured on fully grown traits. A study analysing FA patterns of developing and fully grown feathers in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) corroborates that the levels of FA, and the relationship between asymmetry and feather length, depend on the degree of feather development.     

Effect of food type and ration on growth of juvenile Capitella sp. I (Annelida: Polychaeta): macro- and micronutrients

Growth rates of juvenile Capitella sp. I were determined on different rations of six food types: Gerber's mixed cereal, TetraMin fish flakes, benthic diatoms, Ulva sp., spring detritus, and summer detritus. A simple growth model estimated maximum growth rate and maintenance ration for each food. There were differences in the growth response among foods relative to nitrogen content. As juveniles increased in size, differences in growth between foods became more pronounced. For all juveniles, growth rates were correlated with levels of the amino acids histidine, phenylalanine, threonine, and valine, and the polyunsaturated fatty acid 20:5w3; correlations with histidine and phenylalanine levels were the most significant. Regressions of growth rates as a function of these two amino acids suggest a daily maintenance ration of 300 pg histidine and phenylalanine mg^-1 nitrogen biomass. Juvenile worms grew on spring detritus but not on summer detritus, indicating the probable importance of micronutrients (polyunsaturated fatty acids, amino acids) for growth of juvenile Capitella sp. I in the field.     

Effects of temperature and food ration on gonad growth and oogenesis of the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis

To assess the effects of both temperature and food ration on gonad growth and oogenesis of the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (O.F. Müller), individuals collected December 1996 (winter experiment) and June 1997 (summer experiment) were maintained for 3 months in one of four experimental treatments: (1) 3 °C and fed ad libitum (high ration), (2) 3 °C and fed one-seventh of the maximum ration (low ration), and (3) 12 °C and fed the high ration; (4) 12 °C and fed the low ration. All individuals were fed an artificial diet and exposed to only 1 h of light every day. At the end of both experiments, mean gonad indices of sea urchins fed the high ration had increased significantly (11–24% and 6–19% in the winter and summer experiments, respectively), while the gonad indices of individuals fed the low ration did not change. At the high ration (both experiments), the increase in gonad index of sea urchins occurred primarily as the result of a significant increase in the mass of nutritive phagocytes, as revealed by histological analyses. Primary oocytes were significantly larger in individuals held at 3 °C than at 12 °C throughout the winter experiment, regardless of food ration; during the summer experiment, primary oocytes were significantly larger in individuals receiving the high ration, regardless of the temperature at which they were held. These results suggest that: (1) food availability is the most important factor regulating energy storage and the relative size of gonads throughout the year, (2) temperature affects the rate of growth and maturation of primary oocytes during the later stages of oogenesis, and (3) once gametogenesis has been initiated, mature ova will be produced, even under conditions of low food availability. Conditions of high food availability in summer and low temperature in winter would thus favor reproductive output in sea urchin populations. Received: 1 March 2000 / Accepted: 4 October 2000     

Influence of food quantity and temperature on development and growth of the marine copepod Calanus chilensis from northern Chile

An experiment under laboratory conditions was conducted to test the hypothesis that development and growth of copepodite stages in Calanus chilensis are temperature-dependent and not subject to food shortage in the upwelling area of the Humboldt Current, northern Chile. Field data obtained from June 1994 to May 1995 in Bahía Mejillones (23°S) were used to define four combinations of temperature and food under which copepodites were reared from Stage CIII to adulthood. The high temperature was 18.1 °C and the low temperature 13.1 °C, whereas the high food level was in the range of 6.8 to 24.8 μg l⁻¹ chlorophyll a and the low level 1.0 to 6.8 μg l⁻¹ chlorophyll a. As food a mixture of three unknown species of phytoflagellates and the diatom Navicula cryptocephala was used. This phytoplankton was initially obtained from the same sampling sites as copepods and kept in f/2 media at stable levels and composition throughout the experiment. The development rate (1/t), estimated from the time (t) elapsing between Stage CIV and adult, was significantly affected by both temperature and food, although low-food effects were much more remarkable. Low-food conditions also significantly reduced body length and “structural” (lipid-discounted) body mass at adulthood, while temperature only affected body length. The weight-specific growth rate was also affected by food and temperature, but again food effects were much more drastic. The results indicate that C. chilensis is a highly sensitive species to lack of food, and is possibly subject to food shortage during its annual cycle in the coastal upwelling area of northern Chile. Food limitation may help explain the seasonal pattern of adult size reported by previous studies in the area and the lack of consistence between the number of generations predictable from a temperature-dependent model and that observed in the field during the annual cycle. Received: 10 September 1996 / Accepted: 29 October 1996     

Effect of temperature fluctuations and food supply on the growth and metabolism of juvenile sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus)

On the eastern shore of Nova Scotia late summer atmospheric systems cause upwelling of shelf water; the associated temperature variations of 10 °C with a 6 to 8 d period are comparable in magnitude to the seasonal variation. A laboratory study was undertaken to assess the effects of these temperature fluctuations on sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) growth and metabolism. In a factorial design, scallops were subjected to constant (10 °C) or a variable (6 to 15 °C) 8 d temperature cycle, and either a low (seston in filtered seawater) or high (seston supplemented with cultured phytoplankton) food diet. During the 48 d experiment scallop mortality was low and growth positive in all treatments. Shell and total tissue growth rate did not differ between temperature treatments, but growth in the high food treatments was 40 to 50% higher than in the low food treatments. However, soft tissue (excluding adductor) growth did show a temperature treatment effect; growth rates were significantly higher in the fluctuating temperature treatment, due in part to greater gonad development. Weight-standardized rates of scallop oxygen consumption (V _sO₂ , μmol O₂ g⁻¹ h⁻¹) were 20 to 25% higher in high food than in low food treatments, consistent with the expected increase in respiration due to the higher growth rates. Scallop metabolism did not acclimate to the fluctuating temperature cycle; V _sO₂ and ammonium excretion (V _sNH⁺ ₄, μmol O₂ g⁻¹ h⁻¹) remained dependent on ambient temperature throughout the experiment. V _sNH⁺ ₄ Q₁₀ (2.77) was higher than V _sO₂ Q₁₀ (2.01) which was reflected in a decrease in the O:N ratio at 15 °C, indicating a shift toward increased protein catabolism and a stressed state. At 10 °C, V _sO₂ and V _sNH⁺ ₄ in the variable temperature treatments were 15 to 18% lower than in the constant temperature treatments, a difference that was not detected in growth measurements. Results demonstrate that the metabolism of Placopecten magellanicus, unlike some bivalve species, is tightly coupled to fluctuations in ambient temperature. Although an absence of compensatory acclimation had a minimal effect on growth in this study, if high temperatures were combined with low food conditions a reduction in scallop production could result. Received: 23 June 1998 / Accepted: 8 February 1999     

A hydrodynamic and water quality modeling study of spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton growth in a stratified lake with buoyant incoming flow

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was applied to Lake Paldang, a lake in South Korea that is stratified by incoming flows. The spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton growth in this lake were determined from the model. The model was calibrated and verified using data measured under different hydrological conditions. The model results were in reasonable agreement with the field measurements, in both the calibration and verification phases. The distributions of water quality and residence time in the lake and phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient loads were examined with the model, and the influence of the hydrodynamics on phytoplankton response was analyzed. The simulation results indicated that Lake Paldang is an essentially phosphorus-limited system, but that phytoplankton growth is limited by low water temperature and short residence time during the winter and the summer monsoon period, respectively. The results of sensitivity analyses also suggested that the hydrodynamics within the lake may have an indirect influence on phytoplankton responses to changes in the limiting nutrient loads, and that reducing phosphorus loading from Kyoungan Stream should be a high priority policy for controlling algal blooms during the pre- and post-monsoon periods. From this study, it was concluded that the three-dimensional water quality model incorporating hydrodynamic processes could successfully simulate phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient loads and that it could become a useful tool for identifying the essential factors determining phytoplankton growth and for developing the best management policy for algal blooms in Lake Paldang.     

On the ecology of a North Adriatic benthic community: Distribution,standing crop and composition of the macrobenthos

The boundaries as well as the macro-epibenthic biomass distribution and composition of a North Adriatic benthic community, dominated by the brittle star Ophiothrix quinquemaculata (D.Ch.), the sponges Reniera ssp., and the ascidians Microcosmus ssp. were determined. Transects totalling more than 80 km (i.e., a recorded area of approximately 150 000 m²) were taken by means of a combined TV- and photocamera sled. The observations, TV-recordings, and photos, together with 392 diver-collected quantitative samples were evaluated. The biomass values were used to establish isobenths. Within the community, the mean biomass, measured as wet weight, amounted to 370 (±73) g/m² with maxima of more than 1000 g/m². 64% of the biomass was due to the designating group Ophiothrix-Reniera-Micrcosmus, 87.5% were represented by filter- and suspension-feeding species alone. The mean biomass in the peripheral areas was evaluated at 166 (±62) g/m². Biomass distribution and composition is examined, and the ecological function and meaning of the observed patterns is discussed.This investigation was carried out within the frame of a joint programme between the Lehrkanzel für Meeresbiologie, University of Vienna, and the Marine Biological Station, Portoroz, University of Ljubljana.     

The influence of arsenic speciation (AsIII & AsV) and concentration on the growth, uptake and translocation of arsenic in vegetable crops (silverbeet and amaranth): greenhouse study

We examined arsenic (As) uptake by vegetable crops (amaranth, Amaranthus gangeticus, and silverbeet, Beta vulgaris) as affected by As speciation (As^III and As^V) and their concentrations in nutrient solution. Amaranth and silverbeet were grown in a nutrient solution containing four levels of arsenate (As^V): 0, 1, 5, and 25 mg As/l and three levels of arsenite (As^III): 0, 5, 10 mg As/l. Both As^V and As^III are phytotoxic to these crops with the latter being five times more toxic. Amaranth treated with As^III exhibited As toxicity symptoms within 48 h of exposure and was close to death within 1 week. However, As^V treatment did not show clear toxicity symptoms other than wilting and yield reduction at the highest dose rate of 25 mg As^V/l. The main mechanism used by vegetable crops to tolerate As^V is probably avoidance—limiting As transport to shoots and increasing As accumulation in the root system. When As^V was added to the nutrient solution, the uptake of As in shoots increased and, at the highest dose (25 mg As^V/l), 60 μg As/g DW (3.6 mg/kg FW) accumulated in the edible portion, which exceeds the WHO recommended limit for food stuffs (2 mg/kg FW) as the water contents of the crops were 94%. It is therefore important to determine the nature of the As species and their bio-accessibility. Iron treatment with 0.5 mg NaFe(III)EDTA/l dose decreased silverbeet As uptake by 45% given its affinity to bind As at the root surface or root rhizosphere and so restrict As translocation to the shoots.     

Effect of streambed bacteria release on E. coli concentrations: Monitoring and modeling with the modified SWAT

Streambed sediment has been attracting attention as a reservoir for bacteria, including pathogenic strains. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been augmented with a bacteria transport subroutine in SWAT2005 in which bacteria die-off is the only in-stream process. The purpose of this study was to develop the partial model of sediment-associated bacteria transport in stream and to evaluate the potential significance of streambed Escherichia coli (E. coli) release and deposition within the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Streambed E. coli release and deposition were simulated based on the sediment resuspension and deposition modules in SWAT. The modified SWAT was applied to the Little Cove Creek watershed, Pennsylvania, which has forestry and dairy pasture landuses. Temporal changes in sediment E. coli concentrations were derived from monitoring data rather than from a streambed bacteria population model. Sensitivity analyses and calibrations were separately conducted for both hydrologic and bacteria parameters. Hydrologic calibration characterized soils in the watershed as pervious and thus the surface runoff was only moderately contributing to the streamflow. However, the surface runoff carried large numbers of E. coli to the stream, and sediment resuspension contributed to the persistent concentration of E. coli in stream water. Although the uncertainty of E. coli concentrations in streambed sediments and from wildlife probably affected the performance of the modified SWAT model, this study qualitatively confirmed the significance of modeling E. coli release from streambed and deposition for the SWAT microbial water quality simulations. Further developments should include modeling dynamics of bacteria populations within streambeds.     

Influence of seasonal variation in temperature, salinity and food availability on module size and colony growth of the estuarine bryozoan Conopeum seurati

Zooid size and colony growth of the estuarine bryozoan Conopeum seurati (Canu) (order: Cheilostomatida; suborder: Malacostegina) were examined over 15 mo at Avonmouth Dock, Avon, England. Data were analysed in conjunction with synchronous measurements of temperature, salinity and food availability. Zooid length, width and area were strongly temperature-dependent, while both food availability and colony growth rate had no significant effect on zooid length, width or area. Salinity and the interaction of temperature and salinity significantly influenced zooid length and area, suggesting that changes in zooid size may result from oxygen limitation in warm waters. The validity of a number of other mechanisms proposed to account for temperature-related changes in zooid size is discussed. The results support the use of zooid size as an indicator of both long-term trends and seasonal variations in temperature in Recent and fossil assemblages as long as data sets are large and the effects of other factors on zooid size are considered. Colony growth rate was found to be significantly influenced by both the amount of food available to the colonies and the combined effect of temperature and food availability, suggesting that growth rate increases as food increases, but that the former may be limited at low temperatures when metabolic rates are low. Received: 30 March 1999 / Accepted: 24 September 1999     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.