Research on the prediction model of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents

In recent years, hazardous chemicals road transport accidents have occurred frequently, causing huge casualties and property losses, and accident risk assessment has become the focus of researchers' research. To predict the risk probability value of hazardous chemical road transport accidents, first, we compiled data on road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China in the past five years. And the nine nodes in the Bayesian network (BN) structure were defined in combination with relevant classification standards. The optimal Bayesian network structure for hazardous chemical road transport accidents was determined based on the K2 algorithm and the causalities between the nodes. Second, the node conditional probabilities were derived by parameter learning of the model using Netica, and the validity of the model was verified using the 5-fold cross-validation method. Last, the Bayesian network model of hazardous chemical road transport accidents is used to analyze accident examples, and the accident chain of “rear-end-leakage” is predicted, and the accident is most likely to be disposed of within 3–9 h. The study shows that the derived accident prediction model for hazardous chemical road transportation can reason reasonably about the evolution of accident scenarios and determine the probability values of accident risks under different parameter conditions.     

Key airborne concentrations of chemicals for emergency response planning in HAZMAT road transportation- margin of safety or survival

The release of chemicals due to road transportation accidents could have adverse consequences such as fatality, physical and financial loss and environmental damage. The purpose of this study was to determine the suitable margin of safety/survival of individuals in HAZMAT road transportation accidents for use in Emergency Response Planning (ERP). In this study, at first, the safety margin and survival margin were defined and proposed. Then, as a case study, the chemical tanker trucks in Iran's road transport fleet were investigated and the full bore rupture of the tanker trucks was considered as the selective scenario. Eventually, safety margin and survival margin were determined using ALOHA and PHAST software and the Chemical Exposure Index (CEI). The results showed that using the CEI, among the selected chemicals, ammonia, chlorine and 1,3-butadiene had the highest chemical release potential with the exposure indices of 597, 548 and 284, respectively, and need further investigation. The possible safety margin obtained in this study was distances over 5100 m (using ALOHA software for ammonia) and 10,983 m (using PHAST software for chlorine). On the other hand, the survival margin was distances over 980 m away from the accident area (using ALOHA software for ammonia) and 620 m away from the accident area (using the PHAST software for chlorine). The results of this study indicate that determining the safety and survival margins surrounding the tanker trucks and containers of chemicals is a critical issue for the emergency response planning and determining the standards of road's safety and survival margins. On the other hand, due to the obtainment of different results by various methods and software, in road accidents, the highest hazard distance is suggested to be considered to determine the safety margin (distances longer than 10,983 m) and survival margin (distances longer than 980 m) for ERP, regardless of the type of used material and software.     

Removal of Cr(VI) from simulative contaminated groundwater by iron metal

The Cr(VI) removal from simulative contaminated groundwater using zero-valent iron (Fe⁰) filings, Fe⁰ powder and nanoscale Fe⁰ in batch experimental mode was studied. Cr(VI) is a primary pollutant of some soils and groundwater. Zero-valent iron, an important natural reductant, could transform Cr(VI) to Cr(III) which is much less toxic and immobile. The Cr(VI) removal percentage was 87% at a metal to solution ratio of 6 g l⁻¹ for commercial iron powder (200 mesh) in 120 min, and 100% Cr(VI) was removed when the metal to solution ratio was 10 g l⁻¹. The results demonstrates that the Cr(VI) removal percentage was affected apparently by pH, the amount of Fe powder and the reaction temperature. The Cr(VI) removal percentage with nanoscale Fe⁰ was much higher than those with Fe⁰ filings or Fe⁰ powder at the same reaction time. Electrochemical analysis of the reaction process led to the conclusion that the Cr(VI) trended to form Cr(III) hydroxide under the reaction conditions. The kinetics analysis showed that Cr(VI) reduction by Fe⁰ could be described as a pseudo-first-order kinetics model.     

基于危化品事故案例的决策规则提取算法研究*

为充分解析文本形式的危化品事故案例,探讨事故类型与大量事故致因间的因果关联,从化工行业入手,通过扎根理论对175起危化品事故案例进行因素提取,共确定5个子系统、19个因素、80个子因素,提出基于事故生命周期的事故致因框架;在此基础上,提出改进的Gra Apriori算法,以解决经典的Apriori无法考虑属性类别关系的问题,最终获得14个以事故类型为决策属性的规则。结果表明:这些规则从不同事故阶段细致地剖析了危化品事故所遵循的规律,重现事故的演变过程,为危化品事故风险管理提供准确可靠的预防策略和决策支持。     

Improved models of failure time for atmospheric tanks under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires

Fire accidents of chemical installations may cause domino effects in atmospheric tank farms, where a large amount of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Pool fire is a major form of fire accidents, and the thermal radiation from pool fire is the primary hazard of domino accidents. The coupling of multiple pool fires is a realistic and important accident phenomenon that enhances the propagation of domino accidents. However, previous research has mostly focused on the escalation of domino accidents induced by a single pool fire. To overcome the drawback, in this study, the failure of a storage tank under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires was studied in view of spatial and temporal synergistic process. The historical accident statistics indicated that the accident scenario of two-pool fires accounted for 30.6% in pool fires. The domino accident scenario involving three tanks is analyzed, and the typical layout of tanks is isosceles right triangle based on Chinese standard “GB50341-2014”. The thermal response and damage of a target tank heated by pool fires were numerically investigated. The volume of 500 m³, 3000 m³, 5000 m³ and 10000 m³ were selected. Flame temperature was obtained by FDS, and then was input onto the finite element model. The temperature field and stress field of target tanks were simulated by ABAQUS. The results showed that the temperature rise rate of the target tanks under multiple pool fires was higher than that under a single pool fire. The failure time of the tank under the coupling effect of multiple fires was lower than that under the superposition of multiple fires without the first stage. The stress and yield strength were compared to judge the failure of the target tank. The model of failure time for the tank under the coupling effect of pool fires was established. Through the verification, the deviation of this model is 4.02%, which is better than the deviation of 15.76% with Cozzani's model.     

CFD analysis of the dispersion of toxic materials in road tunnels

The present work is aimed at analyzing the evolution of accidental scenarios deriving from the release of toxic materials inside a tunnel. This scenario, compared to the more frequently investigated cases of fire, followed by smoke dispersion, may involve a large variety of common products characterized by widely differing physical properties; nonetheless it has been analysed in the literature less than expected. The present study compares the dispersion of two common toxic chemicals (chlorine and ammonia), in order to derive some preliminary information about the influence of the physical properties and the release rate. A reference road tunnel geometry is assumed, while the release occurs from ground level, at the centre of one lane and in the middle of the tunnel. Two study cases involving a road tanker, transporting the product as liquefied gas under pressure, were considered: a catastrophic release, from a 220 mm hole, emptying the tanker in a few tens seconds (case A), and a continuous release, from a much smaller hole (15 mm), lasting 5 min (case B). For the sake of simplicity, the release is assumed to be in gaseous phase; the dispersion of the toxic is simulated for the 5 min period following the start of the release using a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analysis, according to an RANS (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) approach with the standard k–ε turbulence model, assuming no ventilation conditions. Structured curvilinear grids with hexaedric cells, refined according to the local concentration gradient, are used. For case A scenarios, especially for the whole release duration, dispersion is mainly governed by the “plug-flow” effect caused by the large volume of toxic entering the tunnel in a rather short time; then, the role of diffusivity and gravity becomes more important. Chlorine, heavier than air and with lower diffusivity than ammonia, progressively accumulates towards the floor; the dispersion of ammonia, which is lighter than air, appears more influenced by diffusivity than by gravity, since a limited stratification is observed. These trends are more evident for case B scenarios, where the toxic flow rates are much lower. It is expected the results will give some useful insight into the dispersion phenomenon within highly confined spaces and maybe also provide some suggestion about ventilation systems design and emergency procedures.     

2000-2009年全国职业中毒状况规律分析和对策探讨

职业中毒是我国的主要职业病之一,严重影响着劳动者的健康和社会的和谐稳定。根据卫生部2000-2009年公布的职业病统计数据,分析总结我国职业中毒的发生规律。结果表明：职业中毒是仅次于尘肺病的第二大类职业病。职业中毒占职业病总数的12.8%-18%,在职业中毒病例中,急性职业中毒占22.4%-39.6%,慢性职业中毒占60.4%-77.6%。职业中毒总人数变化从2000年到2005年较平稳,从2006年起,呈波浪形上升趋势,但其增幅远小于职业病总数和尘肺病新发病例人数的增幅。其中,急性职业中毒总人数略有下降趋势,慢性职业中毒总人数呈波浪形上升趋势。引起急性职业中毒占前两位的化学毒物主要是一氧化碳和硫化氢,引起慢性职业中毒占前两位的化学毒物主要是铅及其化合物和苯。中小企业职业中毒发生率高。建议各级职能部门重点加强相关行业的监管,尤其是其中的中小企业的监管;履行指导的职责,加强有效果的安全教育和培训;同时加强职业监控监护。     

Class-2 hazmat transportation consequence assessment on surrounding population

The transportation of hazardous materials by road is an utmost necessity of the world for the societal benefits, but at the same time the activity is inherently dangerous. Incidents involving hazardous material (hazmat) cargo particularly the class-2 materials can lead to severe consequences in terms of fatalities, injuries, evacuation, property damage and environmental degradation. The rationale behind considering class-2 hazmats is that they pose the greatest danger to the people and property along the transport route because of their storage condition on the transport vessel. They are stored either in pressurized vessels or in cryogenic containers. Any external impact due to collision may cause catastrophic failure of transport vessels, known as BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) with devastating consequences. Further, any continuous release from containment may cause what is known as ‘Unconfined Vapour Cloud Explosion’ (UVCE). Historically frequency of BLEVE occurrence is of the order of 1 × 10⁻⁶ per year or less, but other release scenarios e.g. a large vapour or liquid leaks are more probable and could also have devastating effects on the surrounding population. As such, the paper discussed various event scenarios and the consequences taking examples of a class-2.1 material (1,3 butadiene) and another class-2.3 (ammonia) hazmat. Comparative analysis suggests that per ton basis a rupture of ammonia tanker gives rise to larger impact areas and poses larger lethality risks compared to 1,3 butadiene as far as toxic effects are concerned. Besides, from fireball fatality on similar basis propylene causes higher consequence distance than LPG followed by ethylene oxide and 1,3 butadiene. The impact zone study results may be utilized as inputs for identifying the potential vulnerable area on a GIS enabled map, along a designated State highway route passing through an important industrial corridor in western India.     

Toluene removal biofilter modeling: Optimization and case study

Based on the model proposed by De Visscher and Van Cleemput for methane oxidation in landfill cover soils, a simulation model for biofiltration of toluene-contaminated air has been developed for biofilters with substrate inhibition. A convenient way to optimize biofilter performance was developed assuming Haldane kinetics. It was calculated that for a typical oilsands operation emitting 200 ton of toluene annually, 90% of the toluene can be removed by a 740 m³ biofilter, if the waste gas sent to the biofilter has a toluene concentration of 2.25 g m⁻³. The optimal initial concentration increases with increasing target efficiency.     

Korean experience of process safety management (PSM) regulation for chemical industry

From the 1960s, Korean industries have been encouraged by the government to nurture heavy and chemical industry and to modernize the economics and industrial structures. The development of chemical industry particularly became the turning point in industrial development, and played a major role in the construction of a new industrialized country. However, the process systems in the chemical industry have become more complex and larger, and the inventories of dangerous chemicals that are produced or consumed have continuously increased. Therefore, the hazards from potential accidents such as fire and explosion or release of toxic chemicals have also increased. In fact, from the end of 1980s to the beginning of 1990s in Korea, a number of major industrial accidents such as ABS extruder explosion, TDI release and dryer explosion, etc. Occurred and caused many fatalities. As the chemical companies recognized the importance of preventing major hazards, PSM system, the prevention of major industrial accidents, was introduced in January 1995 by amending Industrial Safety and Health Act, and it has been enforced from January 1, 1996. According to the law, the business owner of a workplace with hazardous or dangerous equipment shall submit a process safety report to the Government to prevent any accidents, which could inflict an immediate damage on workers or on areas in the vicinity of the workplaces. As a result of PSM implementation for 19 years, chemical accident prevention system has been stabilized and various kinds of effectiveness and desirable customer satisfaction have been made.     

Risk and consequence analyses of hazardous chemicals in marshalling yards and warehouses at Ikonio/Piraeus harbour, Greece

The risk and the consequences of possible accidents at Ikonio (Piraeus harbour, Greece) are investigated and analyzed in this paper. At this harbour large cargoes of dangerous chemicals (toxic or flammable) are unloaded and stored in warehouses or in marshalling yards. Houses and a school are located near the plant and are directly exposed to danger in the case of an accident. The results were obtained by Breeze Hazard Professional software package, which contains several models for performing consequence modeling through quantitative risk assessment.     

危化品事故应急救援能力提升方法研究——基于天津港“8·12”瑞海公司危险品仓库特别重大火灾爆炸事故教训

为提升危化品事故应急救援能力,保障消防救援队员救援时安全,基于2015年天津港“8·12”瑞海公司危险品仓库特别重大火灾爆炸事故教训,从应急管理生命周期的角度构建危化品应急管理体系,研究危化品事故应急救援能力提升方法。结果表明:事故发生及特大伤亡与预防和应急准备工作不足有密切关系。构建基于应急管理生命周期的危化品企业、有关监管部门、技术服务机构、消防队联动应急管理体系是提升危化品应急救援能力的重要方法。危化品企业、有关监管部门、技术服务机构、消防队应做好危化品事故预防与应急准备工作,通过充足的预防和准备工作促使有效应急响应。事故发生后,危化品企业做好早期处置利于消防队采取针对性应急救援方案。对于复杂性危化品事故,及时成立抢险救援指挥部,科学应急响应,可保障消防救援的安全有效。     

危险化学品公路运输事故新特点及对策研究

统计分析了2008年1月～2010年5月我国发生的485起危险化学品公路运输事故。从事故发生的原因、事故涉及的化学品、事故造成的危害、事故发生的月份分布及年份变化等几个方面,分析了近年来危险化学品公路运输事故的新特点及变化规律。经统计分析,道路交通事故是引发危险化学品运输事故的主要原因之一;侧翻是危险化学品车辆最容易发生的道路交通事故;而随着我国高速公路的迅猛发展,追尾造成的危险化学品运输事故数量呈上升趋势;危险化学品公路运输过程中易燃液体事故起数最多,爆炸品和毒性物质事故造成的人员伤亡最严重;春节前后取代夏季,成为近两年危险化学品运输事故高发期。针对这些特点,对我国危险化学品公路运输安全管理与监控提出了建议。     

Numerical modelling for effect of water curtain in mitigating toxic gas release

Hydrogen fluoride and ammonia are widely used in chemical industries. Both substances are hazardous and frequently a source of leakage accidents. Since a hydrogen fluoride release accident occurred in Gumi, S. Korea (2012), the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency (KOSHA) has emphasized that special attention and management are needed with respect to toxic substances. For post-release mitigation, a water curtain is known as one of the most effective and economical systems. In this study, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program was used to identify the effect of using a water curtain as a mitigation system for toxic substances that leak out from industrial facilities. Simulations were conducted to analyze how effectively a water curtain could mitigate the dispersion of toxic substances. To verify the simulation's accuracy, the INERIS Ammonia dispersion experiment and Goldfish experiment were simulated and compared. Various water curtains were applied to the simulated field experiment to confirm the mitigation factors with toxic substances. The results show that the simulations and experiments are consistent and that the dispersion of toxic substances can be mitigated by water curtains in certain circumstances.     

The effectiveness of process safety management (PSM) regulation for chemical industry in Korea

From the 1960s, Korean industries have been encouraged by the government to nurture heavy and chemical industry and to modernize the economics and industrial structures. The development of chemical industry particularly became the turning point in industrial development, and played a major role in the construction of a new industrialized country. However, the process systems in the chemical industry have become more complex and larger, and the inventories of dangerous chemicals that are produced or consumed have continuously increased. Therefore, the hazards from potential accidents such as fire and explosion or release of toxic chemicals have also increased. In fact, from the end of 1980s to the beginning of 1990s in Korea, a number of major industrial accidents such as ABS extruder explosion, TDI release and dryer explosion, etc. occurred and caused many fatalities. As the chemical companies recognized the importance of preventing major hazards, PSM system, the prevention of major industrial accidents, was introduced in January 1995 by amending Industrial Safety and Health Act, and it has been enforced from January 1, 1996. According to the law, the business owner of a workplace with hazardous or dangerous equipment shall submit a process safety report to the Government to prevent any accidents, which could inflict an immediate damage on workers or on areas in the vicinity of the workplaces. As a result of PSM implementation for 7 years, various kinds of effectiveness have been made. Accident rate including number of fatalities has been decreased, and productivity has been increased as well as product quality.     

Study of high-tech process furnace using inherently safer design strategies (I) temperature distribution model and process effect

High-tech industries, such as those producing semiconductor and TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display), have recently become the most important economic activities in Taiwan. Each of these industries has a complete chain of supply from raw material production, production pre-processing, product manufacturing, to waste handling. Any company in the chain is a critical component, since any accidents of fire, explosion, gas leakage, or power outage would cut off the supply chain, causing inability of continuous operation. In industries of semiconductor and TFT-LCD, great amounts of special gases and chemicals with many machinery equipments are used in the production processes. In cases of accidents or improper installation, this chain of supply, from raw material production, preproduction, product manufacturing, to waste handling materials and equipments may cause severe damages or incidents.This study used the existing model of the horizontal furnace to develop a simulation program. The simulation results were consistent with the existing model, and produced even slightly better results on temperature distribution and temperature sensitivity. The simulation model applied on a vertical furnace could provide data on furnace temperature control for industrial use. Meanwhile, this study also deduced actual temperature control and an ISD strategy, which are consistent with design strategy principles.The validation results on the proposed temperature distribution model suggested that the model can be applied in temperature distribution and sensitivity analysis to obtain adjustment and control models for various heating zones. In the case of a single tool, when processing reduction is 60 pieces, switching off the two heating zones can reduce 44% of power output, for a capacity utilization rate of 93.7% for the entire plant. The application of the proposed temperature control model can reduce power consumption by 121.4 kWh. In addition, with the same number of tools, facilities layouts in two cases have an area difference of 41.4775 m², thus shortening the evacuation time for operators. The experimental results proved that the proposed model has realized the ISD principles of intensification, attenuation, and limitation of effects.     

Planning an Emergency Response Centre in Southern Taiwan Science Park

Since the 1980s, various types of accidents, such as fire, explosion, and toxic release, have occurred in science parks (SC_s) in Taiwan. The aftermath included financial losses, damaged reputations, business and operation interruption, property damage, and loss of lives. Considering loss prevention, this study plans an emergency response centre (ERC) in order to properly and proactively cope with incidents occurring in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSIP) since its inception in 1996. This article also design and promulgate the use of central monitoring system (CMS) between the ERC and various plants located in the STSIP. With a view to alleviating hazards, the integrated CMS could comprehensively bring a safer environment to all workers and staff at STSIP. Only through the reviews of table-top or functional exercise and real accidents, a comprehensive, fail-safe, and real-life system could be establish to lessen the hazards in STSIP.     

Epidemiology of occupational accidents among Iranian insured workers

Work-related accidents are considered as a major health problem worldwide. The aim of present study was to determine the epidemiological pattern of occupational accidents among workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2001 and 2005.Subjects consisted of all workers and drivers who had a work-related accident during 2001–2005 and were registered in the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) database according to the inspection reports. An ordinal logistic regression model (proportional odds regression model) was used to assess the concurrent effects of independent variables on accident outcomes.Overall, 86,437 work-related accidents were investigated. The accidents were more frequent in metal workplaces and electrical industries, respectively. More than half of the accidents were due to incautious activities. Workers’ age (age at the time of accident) (OR = 0.99, CI: 0.989–0.994), gender (OR = 1.3, CI: 1.191–1.683), marital status (OR = 1.25, CI: 1.143–1.675) as well as accident setting (OR = 1.88, CI: 1.728–1.975) had significant effect on accident outcomes. Pattern of occupational injuries in Iran was consistent with the global pattern for accident outcomes.