Pesticide prediction in ground water in North Carolina domestic wells using artificial neural networks

This paper illustrates the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) for prediction of pesticide occurrence in rural domestic wells from the available limited information. Among the three ANN models (a feed-forward back propagation [BP], a radial basis function [RBF] and an adaptive neural network-based fuzzy inference system [ANFIS]) employed for this investigation, the BP neural network was found to be superior to RBF and ANFIS type networks for the detection of pesticide occurrences in wells. For improved model prediction efficiency, optimization of network structure (e.g., number of hidden layers and number of nodes in each hidden layer) and spread (the width of the radial basis function) are important for BP and RBF type of network, respectively. A four layer BP network with a 3:2 neurons ratio of the first hidden layer to the second hidden layer produced better prediction performance efficiencies in terms of the pesticide detection efficiency (E_f), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the correlation coefficient (R) and the overall E_f of the BP neural network was found greater than 85%. Sensitivity analysis was performed to measure the relative importance of one input parameter over the other in pesticide occurrence in wells. It was shown in terms of the prediction efficiencies (E_f, RMSE, and R) of a four-layer BP neural network that the time of sample collection (TSC; month of the year), the depths of wells, and pesticide travel times (PTT) were more important parameters in the prediction of the pesticide occurrences in rural domestic wells. This means that the wells having shallow ground water table are more vulnerable to pesticide occurrence.     

Modeling and optimization of Nile blue sulfate mineralization by heterogeneous fenton oxidation

Artificial neural network and response surface methodology have been used to develop a model for simulation and optimization of the removal of Nile blue sulfate by heterogeneous Fenton oxidation. Experimental data were used to train an artificial neural network model with linear transfer function at the output layer and a tangent sigmoid transfer function at the hidden layer. A Box–Behnken design was employed to assess the effects of input process parameters on the total organic carbon removal. First order kinetics and lumped kinetics models were used to describe the reaction; a high regression coefficient indicated that the latter fitted best. The formation of non-oxidizable compounds was shown by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry.     

Artificial neural network modeling of the river water quality—A case study

The paper describes the training, validation and application of artificial neural network (ANN) models for computing the dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) levels in the Gomti river (India). Two ANN models were identified, validated and tested for the computation of DO and BOD concentrations in the Gomti river water. Both the models employed eleven input water quality variables measured in river water over a period of 10 years each month at eight different sites. The performance of the ANN models was assessed through the coefficient of determination (R²) (square of the correlation coefficient), root mean square error (RMSE) and bias computed from the measured and model computed values of the dependent variables. Goodness of the model fit to the data was also evaluated through the relationship between the residuals and model computed values of DO and BOD. The model computed values of DO and BOD by both the ANN models were in close agreement with their respective measured values in the river water. Relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output was evaluated through the partitioning approach. The identified ANN models can be used as tools for the computation of water quality parameters.     

A simulation model for Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) migrations in the western North Pacific

A two-dimensional individual-based model coupled with fish bioenergetics was developed to simulate migration and growth of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific. In the model, fish movement is controlled by feeding and spawning migrations with passive transport by simulated ocean current. Feeding migration was assumed to be governed by search for local optimal habitats, which is estimated by the spatial distribution of net growth rate of a sardine bioenergetics model. The forage density is one of the most important factors which determines the geographical distributions of Japanese sardine during their feeding migrations. Spawning migration was modeled by an artificial neural network (ANN) with an input layer composed of five neurons that receive environmental information (surface temperature, temperature change experienced, current speed, day length and distance from land). Once the weight of the ANN was determined, the fish movement was solved by combining with the feeding migration model. To obtain the weights of the ANN, three experiments were conducted in which (1) the ANN was trained with back propagation (BP) method with optimum training data, (2) genetic algorithm (GA) was used to adjust the weights and (3) the weights of the ANN were decided by the GA with BP, respectively. BP is a supervised learning technique for training ANNs. GA is a search technique used in computing to find approximate solutions, such as optimization of parameters. Condition factor of sardine in the model is used as a factor of optimization in the GA works. The methods using only BP or GA did not work to search the appropriate weights in the ANN for spawning migration. In the third method, which is a combined approach of GA with BP, the model reproduced the most realistic spawning migration of Japanese sardine. The changes in temperature and day length are important factors for the orientation cues of Japanese sardine according to the sensitivity analysis of the weights of the ANN.     

Neural network modelling of coastal algal blooms

An artificial neural network (ANN), a data driven modelling approach, is proposed to predict the algal bloom dynamics of the coastal waters of Hong Kong. The commonly used back-propagation learning algorithm is employed for training the ANN. The modeling is based on (a) comprehensive biweekly water quality data at Tolo Harbour (1982–2000); and (b) 4-year set of weekly phytoplankton abundance data at Lamma Island (1996–2000). Algal biomass is represented as chlorophyll-a and cell concentration of Skeletonema at the two locations, respectively. Analysis of a large number of scenarios shows that the best agreement with observations is obtained by using merely the time-lagged algal dynamics as the network input. In contrast to previous findings with more complicated neural networks of algal blooms in freshwater systems, the present work suggests the algal concentration in the eutrophic sub-tropical coastal water is mainly dependent on the antecedent algal concentrations in the previous 1–2 weeks. This finding is also supported by an interpretation of the neural networks’ weights. Through a systematic analysis of network performance, it is shown that previous reports of predictability of algal dynamics by ANN are erroneous in that ‘future data’ have been used to drive the network prediction. In addition, a novel real time forecast of coastal algal blooms based on weekly data at Lamma is presented. Our study shows that an ANN model with a small number of input variables is able to capture trends of algal dynamics, but data with a minimum sampling interval of 1 week is necessary. However, the sufficiency of the weekly sampling for real time predictions using ANN models needs to be further evaluated against longer weekly data sets as they become available.     

Prediction of longitudinal dispersion coefficients in natural rivers using artificial neural network

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for predicting the longitudinal dispersion coefficient in natural rivers. The model uses few rivers’ hydraulic and geometric characteristics, that are readily available, as the model input, and the target output is the longitudinal dispersion coefficient (K). For performance evaluation of the model, using published field data, predictions by the developed ANN model are compared with those of other reported important models. Based on various performance indices, it is concluded that the new model predicts the longitudinal dispersion coefficient more accurately. Sensitive analysis performed on input parameters indicates stream width, flow depth, stream sinuosity, flow velocity, and shear velocity to be the most influencing parameters for accurate prediction of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient.     

A comparison of two models with Landsat data for estimating above ground grassland biomass in Inner Mongolia,China

Two models, artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR), were developed to estimate typical grassland aboveground dry biomass in Xilingol River Basin, Inner Mongolia, China. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and topographic variables (elevation, aspect, and slope) were combined with atmospherically corrected reflectance from the Landsat ETM+ reflective bands as the candidate input variables for building both models. Seven variables (NDVI, aspect, and bands 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7) were selected by the ANN model (implemented in Statistica 6.0 neural network module), while six (elevation, NDVI, and bands 1, 3, 5 and 7) were picked to fit the MLR function after a stepwise analysis was executed between the candidate input variables and the above ground dry biomass. Both models achieved reasonable results with RMSEs ranging from 39.88% to 50.08%. The ANN model provided a more accurate estimation (RMSE_r = 39.88% for the training set, and RMSE_r = 42.36% for the testing set) than MLR (RMSE_r = 49.51% for the training, and RMSE_r = 53.20% for the testing). The final above ground dry biomass maps of the research area were produced based on the ANN and MLR models, generating the estimated mean values of 121 and 147 g/m², respectively.     

应用于水文预报的优化BP神经网络研究

利用广东省滨江流域的水文观测资料，建立了以前期降水量为预报因子、以水位为输出的BP人工神经网络水文预报模型。首先采用了合理的方法进行样本组织，进而利用最优子集回归技术进行输入因子的确定，然后进行了不同隐层节点数、不同转移函数、不同训练算法的组合试验，确定了应用于水文预报中的优化BP神经网络：网络结构为8-9-1；转移函数的组合方式为tansig-线性函数；训练算法为采用evenberg-Marquardt(Lm)算法。为便于精度分析，还采用了最优子集回归模型作了研究。结果表明，优化BP网络模型无论在拟合精度还是在预测精度上都高于最优子集模型。总的来说BP网络是一种精度较高的水文预测模型。     

Neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in the Gru?a reservoir, Serbia

The objective of this study is to develop a feedforward neural network (FNN) model to predict the dissolved oxygen in the Gru?a Reservoir, Serbia. The neural network model was developed using experimental data which are collected during a three years. The input variables of the neural network are: water pH, water temperature, chloride, total phosphate, nitrites, nitrates, ammonia, iron, manganese and electrical conductivity. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of input variables on the dependent variable. The most effective inputs are determined as pH and temperature, while nitrates, chloride and total phosphate are found to be least effective parameters. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to train the FNN. The optimal FNN architecture was determined. The FNN architecture having 15 hidden neurons gives the best choice. Results of FNN models have been compared with the measured data on the basis of correlation coefficient (r), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE). Comparing the modelled values by FNN with the experimental data indicates that neural network model provides accurate results.     

The application of artificial neural networks to flow and phosphorus dynamics in small streams on the Boreal Plain,with emphasis on the role of wetlands

Historically, management strategies in Canada's boreal forest have focused on forest polygons and terrestrial biodiversity to address ecological considerations in forest management. The Forest Watershed and Riparian Disturbance (FORWARD) project examines the problem from a watershed perspective rather than a forest polygon viewpoint. The main objective of this study was to devise an artificial neural network (ANN) modeling tool that can predict flow and total phosphorus (TP) concentration for ungauged watersheds (where daily flow is not monitored). This dictates that all inputs should be easily accessed via a public domain database, like the Environment Canada weather database, without the need to install flow gauges in each modeled watershed. Daily flow and TP concentration for two of the project watersheds were modeled using ANNs. The two watersheds (1A Creek, 5.1 km² and Willow Creek, 15.6 km²) were chosen to reflect variations in wetland area and composition in the study area. Flow was modeled with a feed-forward multilayer perceptron ANN trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. Simulated values for flow were then used, as inputs, to model TP concentration using the same neural networks algorithm. One hidden layer with three slabs; each operating with a different activation function was utilized to simulate the conceptual differences between base flow, snowmelt, and storm events. Time domain analysis was conducted to identify possible model time-lagged inputs reflecting the time dependency of the modeled variables. Spectral analysis was used to address data hystereses. Our results highlight the capabilities of ANN in modeling complex ecosystems and highly correlated variables. Results also indicated that more research towards the phosphorus dynamics in wetlands is required to better represent the impact of wetland area and composition on the water-phase phosphorus in ANN modeling.     

城市给水管网余氯的预测模型

选择余氯为研究对象,以南方某市给水管网水质监测的数据为基础,使用线性回归和非线性神经网络(ANN)方法建立模型,找到了一种利用在线监测数据和人工监测数据实时预测管网余氯的方法。通过建立给水管网水质模型,可以由监测系统动态回传的数据来实时的预测下一天人工点的水质。模拟的结果显示ANN模型比线性回归模型有更好的预测能力,预测的平均相对误差:ANN模型为14.9%,线性回归模型为25.8%。使用ANN模型可以实现实时预测。     

醇和酚类污染物对欧洲林蛙蝌蚪及梨形四膜虫毒性的定量结构-活性模型

醇和酚类等有机化合物作为重要的工业原料,广泛应用于医药卫生、有机合成、食品工业等领域,但生产中排放于环境的这些物质,会对生物造成一定的毒性作用。为建立包含醇和酚类有机污染物对欧洲林蛙蝌蚪及梨形四膜虫毒性的定量结构-活性相关性模型,计算了227种有机污染物的分子连接性指数和分子形状指数,优化筛选了分子连接性指数的0X、1X、2X、4X和5Xc、分子形状指数的K1和K2共7种参数,将这7种结构参数作为神经网络输入层变量,110种有机污染物对欧洲林蛙蝌蚪的毒性值作为输出层变量,采用7:8:1的网络结构方式,构建了令人满意的对欧洲林蛙蝌蚪毒性的神经网络预测模型,方程总相关系数r为0.988,毒性预测值与实验值之间的平均误差为0.14。为检验指数的普适性,同样用这7个结构参数与117种醇和酚类化合物对梨形四膜虫的毒性进行分析,所得神经网络模型的总相关系数达到0.997,对梨形四膜虫毒性的预测值与实验值之间的平均误差仅为0.065,结果表明,所建模型具有良好的预测有机污染物对林蛙蝌蚪及梨形四膜虫急性毒性的能力。     

Efficient adsorption of thiophene from model fuel by pyrolysed rice husks: factors of influence

Rice husks pyrolysed at different temperatures in the range of 250–700°C were investigated as adsorbents for thiophene removal from a model fuel. The adsorption ability of the samples was evaluated under both static and dynamic conditions. It was found that pyrolysed rice husks without any pretreatment are a promising adsorbent for the removal of sulphur-containing molecules from the model fuel. Removal of 92% of the sulphur from the fuel was achieved. The adsorption capacity of the pyrolysed rice husks correlates with their textural and chemical characteristics which strongly depend on the pyrolysis temperature. The adsorption of thiophene is influenced by the initial sulphur concentration level, the fractional composition of the adsorbent, the temperature and the adsorbent/fuel volume ratio. The adsorption capacity of the pyrolysed rice husks is higher under static than under dynamic conditions.     

Review and comparison of methods to study the contribution of variables in artificial neural network models

Convinced by the predictive quality of artificial neural network (ANN) models in ecology, we have turned our interests to their explanatory capacities. Seven methods which can give the relative contribution and/or the contribution profile of the input factors were compared: (i) the ‘PaD’ (for Partial Derivatives) method consists in a calculation of the partial derivatives of the output according to the input variables; (ii) the ‘Weights’ method is a computation using the connection weights; (iii) the ‘Perturb’ method corresponds to a perturbation of the input variables; (iv) the ‘Profile’ method is a successive variation of one input variable while the others are kept constant at a fixed value; (v) the ‘classical stepwise’ method is an observation of the change in the error value when an adding (forward) or an elimination (backward) step of the input variables is operated; (vi) ‘Improved stepwise a’ uses the same principle as the classical stepwise, but the elimination of the input occurs when the network is trained, the connection weights corresponding to the input variable studied is also eliminated; (vii) ‘Improved stepwise b’ involves the network being trained and fixed step by step, one input variable at its mean value to note the consequences on the error. The data tested in this study concerns the prediction of the density of brown trout spawning redds using habitat characteristics. The PaD method was found to be the most useful as it gave the most complete results, followed by the Profile method that gave the contribution profile of the input variables. The Perturb method allowed a good classification of the input parameters as well as the Weights method that has been simplified but these two methods lack stability. Next came the two improved stepwise methods (a and b) that both gave exactly the same result but the contributions were not sufficiently expressed. Finally, the classical stepwise methods gave the poorest results.     

Online recognition of drainage type based on UV-vis spectra and derivative neural network algorithm

• UV-vis absorption analyzer was applied in drainage type online recognition. • The UV-vis spectrum of four drainage types were collected and evaluated. • A convolutional neural network with multiple derivative inputs was established. • Effects of different network structures and input contents were compared. Optimizing sewage collection is important for water pollution control and wastewater treatment plants quality and efficiency improvement. Currently, the urban drainage pipeline network is upgrading to improve its classification and collection ability. However, there is a lack of efficient online monitoring and identification technology. UV-visible absorption spectrum probe is considered as a potential monitoring method due to its small size, reagent-free and fast detection. Because the performance parameters of probe like optic resolution, dynamic interval and signal-to-noise ratio are weak and high turbidity of sewage raises the noise level, it is necessary to extract shape features from the turbidity disturbed drainage spectrum for classification purposes. In this study, drainage network samples were online collected and tested, and four types were labeled according to sample sites and environment situation. Derivative spectrum were adopted to amplify the shape features, while convolutional neural network algorithm was established to conduct nonlinear spectrum classification. Influence of input and network structure on classification accuracy was compared. Original spectrum, first-order derivative spectrum and a combination of both were set to be three different inputs. Artificial neural network with or without convolutional layer were set be two different network structures. The results revealed a convolutional neural network combined with inputs of first and zero-order derivatives was proposed to have the best classification effect on domestic sewage, mixed rainwater, rainwater and industrial sewage. The recognition rate of industrial wastewater was 100%, and the recognition rate of domestic sewage and rainwater mixing system were over 90%.     

Prediction of total bed material load for rivers in Malaysia: A case study of Langat,Muda and Kurau Rivers

A soft computational technique is applied to predict sediment loads in three Malaysian rivers. The feed forward-back propagated (schemes) artificial neural network (ANNs) architecture is employed without any restriction to an extensive database compiled from measurements in Langat, Muda, Kurau different rivers. The ANN method demonstrated a superior performance compared to other traditional sediment-load methods. The coefficient of determination, 0.958 and the mean square error 0.0698 of the ANN method are higher than those of the traditional method. The performance of the ANN method demonstrates its predictive capability and the possibility of generalization of the modeling to nonlinear problems for river engineering applications.     

酚类化合物臭氧氧化速率的神经网络研究

酚类化合物(BP)是重要的工业原料或中间体,但工业废水含有的酚类化合物会对环境造成污染。为建立酚类化合物臭氧氧化速率的QSPR(quantitative structure-property relationship)预测模型,分析了23种酚的分子结构与臭氧氧化速率之间的相关关系,计算了这些酚的分子连接性指数和分子形状指数,优化筛选了连接性指数的1χ和2χ、分子形状指数的K1和K2共4种参数,将其作为BP神经网络的输入层变量,臭氧氧化速率作为输出层变量,采用4:2:1的网络结构,获得了令人满意的QSPR神经网络预测模型,模型总相关系数r为0.976,计算得到的臭氧氧化速率的预测值与实验值较为吻合,平均残差仅为0.05;为检验结构参数建立模型的普适性,同样方法建立对酚类化合物的辛醇-水分配系数的预测模型,模型总相关系数r达到0.993,辛醇-水分配系数的预测值与实验值吻合度较为理想,结果表明,本法建构的神经网络模型具有良好的稳健性和预测能力。     

Estimation of total sediment load concentration obtained by experimental study using artificial neural networks

Estimation of sediment concentration in rivers is very important for water resources projects planning and managements. The sediment concentration is generally determined from the direct measurement of sediment concentration of river or from sediment transport equations. Direct measurement is very expensive and cannot be conducted for all river gauge stations. However, sediment transport equations do not agree with each other and require many detailed data on the flow and sediment characteristics. The main purpose of the study is to establish an effective model which includes nonlinear relations between dependent (total sediment load concentration) and independent (bed slope, flow discharge, and sediment particle size) variables. In the present study, by performing 60 experiments for various independent data, dependent variables were obtained, because of the complexity of the phenomena, as a soft computing method artificial neural networks (ANNs) which is the powerful tool for input–output mapping is used. However, ANN model was compared with total sediment transport equations. The results show that ANN model is found to be significantly superior to total sediment transport equations.     

Artificial neural network approach for modelling nitrogen dioxide dispersion from vehicular exhaust emissions

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are useful alternative techniques in modelling the complex vehicular exhaust emission (VEE) dispersion phenomena. This paper describes a step-by-step procedure to model the nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) dispersion phenomena using the ANN technique. The ANN-based NO₂ models are developed at two air-quality-control regions (AQCRs), one, representing, a traffic intersection (AQCR1) and the other, an arterial road (AQCR2) in the Delhi city. The models are unique in the sense that they are developed for ‘heterogeneous¹’ traffic conditions and tropical meteorology. The inputs to the model consist of 10 meteorological and 6 traffic characteristic variables. Two-year data, from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 1998 has been used for model training and data from 1 January to 31 December 1999, for model testing and evaluation purposes. The results show satisfactory performance of the ANN-based NO₂ models on the evaluation data set at both the AQCRs (d = 0.76 for AQCR1, and d = 0. 59 for AQCR2).