Evaluation and application of a three-dimensional water quality model in a shallow lake with complex morphometry

Fundamental hydrodynamic and ecological processes of a lake or reservoir could be adequately depicted by one-dimensional (1D) numerical simulation models. Whereas, lakes with significant horizontal water quality and hydrodynamic gradients due to their complex morphometry, inflow or water level fluctuations require a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamics and ecological analyses to accurately simulate their temporal and spatial dynamics. In this study, we applied a 3D hydrodynamic model (ELCOM) coupled with an ecological model (CAEDYM) to simulate water quality parameters in three bays of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. A considerable effort was made in setting up the model and a systematic parameterization approach was adopted to estimate the value of parameters based on their published values. Model calibration covered the entire length of the simulation periods from March 29 to October 20, 2000. Sensitivity analysis identified the top parameters with the largest contributions to the sensitivity of model results. The model was next verified with the same setup and parameter values for the period of April 25 to October 10, 2005 against field data. Spatial and temporal dynamics were well simulated and model output results of water temperature (T), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP) and one group of algae (Cyanobacteria) represented as chlorophyll a (Chla) compared well with an extensive field data in the bays. The results show that the use of the model along with an accurate bathymetry, a systematic calibration and corroboration (verification) process will help to analyze the hydrodynamics and geochemical processes of the morphologically complex Lake Minnetonka. An example of an ecological application of the model for Lake Minnetonka is presented by examining the effect of spatial heterogeneity on coolwater fish habitat analysis in 3D and under a scenario where horizontal spatial heterogeneity was eliminated (1D). Both analyses captured seasonal fish habitat changes and the total seasonal averages differed moderately. However, the 1D analysis did not capture local and short duration variabilities and missed suitable fish habitat variations of as much as 20%. The experiment highlighted the need for a 3D analysis in depicting ecological hot spots such as unsuitable fish habitats in Lake Minnetonka.     

Identification of a dynamic lake model by the group method of data handling: An application to lake ontario

A revised algorithm of the group method of data handling (GMDH) is used to model and identify water quality dynamics in Lake Ontario. The state variables in the model are corrected chlorophyll a, volume-averaged over the top 20 m, and soluble reactive phosphorus in three layers, 0–20 m, 20–40 m and from 40 m to bottom. Inputs are the average quarterly temperatures for each layer and the total phosphorus loadings. Two kinds of model are developed: recursive and iterative; they are used to simulate long-term predictions for three different hypothetical rates of phosphorus loading. Results show that GMDH can be usefully employed to develop lake models with a very low expense of manpower and computer time. This exercise compares well with other large-scale modelling efforts of Lake Ontario, even if necessarily more limited in scope.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

A hydrodynamic and water quality modeling study of spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton growth in a stratified lake with buoyant incoming flow

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was applied to Lake Paldang, a lake in South Korea that is stratified by incoming flows. The spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton growth in this lake were determined from the model. The model was calibrated and verified using data measured under different hydrological conditions. The model results were in reasonable agreement with the field measurements, in both the calibration and verification phases. The distributions of water quality and residence time in the lake and phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient loads were examined with the model, and the influence of the hydrodynamics on phytoplankton response was analyzed. The simulation results indicated that Lake Paldang is an essentially phosphorus-limited system, but that phytoplankton growth is limited by low water temperature and short residence time during the winter and the summer monsoon period, respectively. The results of sensitivity analyses also suggested that the hydrodynamics within the lake may have an indirect influence on phytoplankton responses to changes in the limiting nutrient loads, and that reducing phosphorus loading from Kyoungan Stream should be a high priority policy for controlling algal blooms during the pre- and post-monsoon periods. From this study, it was concluded that the three-dimensional water quality model incorporating hydrodynamic processes could successfully simulate phytoplankton response to changes in nutrient loads and that it could become a useful tool for identifying the essential factors determining phytoplankton growth and for developing the best management policy for algal blooms in Lake Paldang.     

Eradication via destratification: whole-lake mixing to selectively remove rainbow smelt, a cold-water invasive species

Invasive species can have severe effects on aquatic ecosystems. After invasions occur, eradication should be considered whenever the potential loss of ecosystem services outweighs the cost of the eradication method. Here we evaluate the possibility of destratifying Crystal Lake, Wisconsin, USA, to eradicate the invasive fish rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We modeled the effects of three destratification scenarios (non-, low-, and high-mixing) using both physical and biological models. Field observations were used to calibrate the models. Water temperatures estimated from 18 unique DYRESM simulations were used in a bioenergetics model to estimate growth of five age classes of rainbow smelt under normal and destratified conditions. Our simulations indicate that destratification can eliminate optimal rainbow smelt thermal habitat resulting in mortality. Destratified lake temperatures also surpassed several physiological critical temperatures. Bioenergetics simulations predicted a weight loss of 45-55% in yearling and adult rainbow smelt. We found that destratification is potentially effective for eradicating cold-water species in temperate lakes.     

白洋淀芦苇型水陆交错带水化学动态及其净化功能研究

于2007年3月-11月对富营养化湖泊一白洋淀进行了现场调查,分析了温度、溶解氧（DO）、叶绿素、总磷（TP）及其他水化学指标的动态变化规律,并讨论了它们之间的相互关系。结果表明：白洋淀芦苇（Phragmites australis var．baiyangdiansis）型水陆交错带对营养物质具有强烈的截留作用,可以达到净化白洋淀水体的效果。从水质指标的空间分布看,污染较重的府河河口区域其水体TP、化学需氧量（CODc,）含量明显高于污染较轻的湖泊中心区域,空间梯度上呈逐步递减趋势。根据水体盐度、总溶解性固体、TP及DO含量进行聚类分析,可以将采样点分为3类：Ⅰ区、污染较重河口区域;Ⅱ区、中间过渡缓冲区域;Ⅲ区、污染较轻中心区域。Ⅰ区其水体DO含量明显低于Ⅲ区,而水体盐度则明显高于Ⅲ区。通过调查发现：在8月份,白洋淀水体DO含量突然增加;相关分析表明：叶绿素含量与DO（P=0．046）及温度（P〈0．01）之间呈显著正相关关系。结合叶绿素等指标的动态变化规律,8月份左右可能是白洋淀藻类爆发的危险时期。     

Recruitment of Hexagenia mayfly nymphs in western Lake Erie linked to environmental variability.

After a 40-year absence caused by pollution and eutrophication, burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia spp.) recolonized western Lake Erie in the mid 1990s as water quality improved. Mayflies are an important food resource for the economically valuable yellow perch fishery and are considered to be major indicator species of the ecological condition of the lake. Since their reappearance, however, mayfly populations have suffered occasional unexplained recruitment failures. In 2002, a failure of fall recruitment followed an unusually warm summer in which western Lake Erie became temporarily stratified, resulting in low dissolved oxygen levels near the lake floor. In the present study, we examined a possible link between Hexagenia recruitment and periods of intermittent stratification for the years 1997 2002. A simple model was developed using surface temperature, wind speed, and water column data from 2003 to predict stratification. The model was then used to detect episodes of stratification in past years for which water column data are unavailable. Low or undetectable mayfly recruitment occurred in 1997 and 2002, years in which there was frequent or extended stratification between June and September. Highest mayfly reproduction in 2000 corresponded to the fewest stratified periods. These results suggest that even relatively brief periods of stratification can result in loss of larval mayfly recruitment, probably through the effects of hypoxia. A trend toward increasing frequency of hot summers in the Great Lakes region could result in recurrent loss of mayfly larvae in western Lake Erie and other shallow areas in the Great Lakes.     

滇池水体磷的时空变化与藻类生长的关系

水体磷的时空变化与藻类生长的关系对研究水体富营养化具有十分重要的作用。采用GPS定位,对滇池海埂、斗南、罗家村、新街、昆阳等5个代表性位点监测断面水体总磷、可溶性磷及叶绿素a含量进行了为期1年（2003年5月至2004年5月）的动态研究,并在滇池海埂位点进行了日变化试验,全面分析了滇池不同区域、不同层次、不同时期水体总磷和可溶性磷的年变化、日变化及水体氮/磷比对藻类生长的影响。结果表明,滇池水体磷与藻类生长呈现显著的年变化和日变化特征,显示了滇池全湖水体总磷与叶绿素a周年变化呈显著正相关,水体可溶性磷与叶绿素a呈正相关趋势;海埂位点水体总磷与叶绿素a日变化呈显著正相关,水体可溶性磷与叶绿素a日变化呈显著的负相关,水体氮磷比与叶绿素a呈显著正相关。表明水体磷负荷对藻类生长影响呈现显著的水体区域性和水层差异性和季节性,藻类生长主要吸收水体中的可溶性磷,暗示了滇池水体磷是藻类生长的主要限制因子之一。     

A Numerical Study of the Dynamics of the Riverine Thermal Bar in a Deep Lake

A numerical model based on a Finite Volume formulation of the Navier–Stokes equations is used to simulate a range of scenarios leading to a thermal bar formed by a river inflow to an idealised deep lake. The results presented here show that small riverine salinity increases have a profound effect on the dynamics of the thermal bar, suppressing horizontal propagation of the plume and raising the possibility of a thermal bar which is capable of sinking to great depths. This finding is particularly relevant to Lake Baikal in Siberia, where the vigorous deep-water renewal is still not fully understood. An analysis of the buoyancy forces governing the depth of penetration of the thermal bar plume shows that realistic salinity gradients are an important factor in determining the circulation of Baikal waters. Observations of the saline curtailment of the thermal bar's horizontal propagation also reveal a potential for reduced productivity in the ecosystem of any temperate river delta during the Spring renewal period.     

Spatial and temporal hydrodynamic and water quality modeling analysis of a large reservoir on the South Carolina (USA) coastal plain

Two-dimensional, 31-segment, 61-channel hydrodynamic and water quality models of Lake Marion (surface area 330.7 km²; volume 1548.3×10⁶ m³) were developed using the WASP5 modeling system. Field data from 1985 to 1990 were used to parameterize the models. Phytoplankton kinetic rates and constants were obtained from a related in situ study; others from modeling literature. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated to estimates of daily lake volume; the water quality model was calibrated for ammonia, nitrate, ortho-phosphate, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, biochemical oxygen demand, organic nitrogen, and organic phosphorus. Water quality calibration suggested the model characterized phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics quite well. The model was validated (Kolmogorov–Smirnov two-sample goodness-of-fit test at P<0.05) by reparameterizing the nutrient loading functions using an independent set of field data. The models identified several factors that may contribute to the spatial variability previously reported from other research in the reservoir, despite the superficial absence of complex structure. Sensitivity analysis of the phytoplankton kinetic rates suggest that study site-specific estimates were important for obtaining model fit to field data. Sediment sources of ammonia (10–60 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) and phosphate (1–6 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) were important to achieve model calibration, especially during periods of high temperatures and low dissolved oxygen. This sediment flux accounted for 78% (nitrogen) and 50% (phosphorus) of the annual load. Spatial and temporal variability in the lake, reflected in the calibrated and validated models, suggest that ecological factors that influence phytoplankton productivity and nutrient dynamics are different in various parts of the lake. The WASP5 model as implemented here does not fully accommodate the ecological variability in Lake Marion due to model constraints on the specification of rate constants. This level of spatial detail may not be appropriate for an operational reservoir model, but as a research tool the models are both versatile and useful.     

Phytoplankton dynamics and species diversity in a shallow eutrophic,natural mid-altitude lake in Himachal Pradesh (India): role of physicochemical factors

Rewalsar Lake, a mid-altitude, shallow and recreational water body located in the north-western Himalayas, Himachal Pradesh (India) was studied through monthly surveys in two consecutive years (March 2008 to February 2010). Forty-seven species belonging to seven groups of phytoplankton were identified from the lake. Microcystis aeruginosa and Synedra ulna exhibited a perennial habit. Ankistrodesmus falcatus, Chlorella vulgaris, Scenedesmus bijugatus, Chlamydomonas reinhardi, Eudorina elegans, Navicula cuspidate, Synedra ulna, Euglena acus, Euglena oxyuris, Spirulina gomontii, Oscillatoria princeps and Arthrospira khannae were abundant, and Oscillatoria limosa and Microcystis aeruginosa were highly abundant. Twenty-one important criteria were studied, for example, temperature, free carbon dioxide, biochemical oxygen demand, total alkalinity, nitrate, silicate and phosphate, which provide an idea of the portability of water for irrigation and drinking purposes as per the permissible limits given in World Health Organization, Indian Council of Medical Research and Indian Standards Institute standards. Pearson's correlation revealed a significant relationship between physicochemical parameters and different algal groups. Both plankton and chlorophyll a showed a bimodal pattern of fluctuation. High annual mean concentrations of chlorophyll a (mg L^?1) were recorded as 11.44 in 2008–09, and 11.04 in 2009–10. As per the Palmer pollution index, 13 pollution-tolerant algal species with a pollution score of 37 were observed. The Central Pollution Control Board categorised the water at Rewalsar Lake as ‘D–E’.     

A simple Lagrangian model to simulate temporal variability of algae in the Elbe River

We present a five-year (1997–2001) numerical simulation of daily mean chlorophyll a concentrations at station Geesthacht Weir on the lower Elbe River (Germany) using an extremely simple Lagrangian model driven by (a) water discharge, global radiation, water temperature, and (b) silica observations at station Schmilka in the upper reach of the Elbe River. Notwithstanding the lack of many mechanistic details, the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll a variability surprisingly well, including a number of sharp valleys and ascents/descents in the observed time series. The model's success is based on the assumption of three key effects: prevailing light conditions, sporadic limitation of algal growth due to lack of silica and algae loss rates that increase above an empirically specified temperature threshold of 20 °C. Trimmed-down model versions are studied to analyse the model's success in terms of these mechanisms.In each of the five years the model consistently fails, however, to properly simulate characteristic steep increases of chlorophyll a concentrations after pronounced spring minima. Curing this model deficiency by global model re-calibration was found to be impossible. However, suspension of silica consumption by algae for up to 10 days in spring is shown to serve as a successful placeholder for processes that are disregarded in the model but apparently play an important role in the distinctly marked period of model failure. For the remainder of the year the very simple model was found to be adequate.     

湖泊营养物参照状态建立方法研究

建立生态分区内各类型湖泊营养物的参照状态是营养物基准制定过程中最为核心的内容之一。在系统分析和评价国外确定湖泊营养物参照状态的若干种方法,包括参照湖泊法、湖泊群体分布法、三分法、回归分析等几种统计学方法以及模型推断和古湖沼学重建方法后,文章根据总磷（total phosphorus,TP）、总氮（total nitrogen,TN）、叶绿素a（chlorophyll a,Chl-a）和塞氏透明度（Secci depth）等四项指标的历史监测数据,应用若干统计学方法建立了巢湖的营养物基准参照状态。通过互相之间的比较分析以及长江中下游湖区古湖沼学重建数据的验证,推荐采用湖泊群体分布法5％点位对应的值作为巢湖营养物基准的参照状态。因此,巢湖营养物参照状态阈值范围为总磷0．023～0．27mg·L^-1,总氮O．62～0．63mg·L^-1,叶绿素aO．65～0．67mg·m^-1,塞氏透明度0．65-0．72m。     

Structure and function of a warm monomictic lake

Construction and simulation of a model of Lake Conway, Florida, U.S.A., provided a framework for defining major characteristics of this ecosystem. The relationships that are formalized in this model comprise a set of hypotheses about the nature of a warm monomictic lake. The data that were used to parameterize the model came primarily from literature estimates, although approximations of biomass levels were available from associated research conducted on the lake.Submersed macrophytes are a major biomass component in Lake Conway; simulation suggested that their role in nutrient recycling overshadows their importance in the grazing food chain. Phytoplankton biomass and degree of fluctuation are considerably lower than are observed in most cool temperate lakes, although simulated respiration and herbivory rates are closer to temperate values than tropical values. Simulated epipelic algae biomass varies an order of magnitude during the year, and this group appears to be a significant part of the food chain. Simulated zooplankton consumption and turnover rates are very high, in part because of the relatively small biomass per individual. Simulation of the model suggests that slightly more carbon is processed through the grazing food chain in Lake Conway than through the detritus food chain.     

Coupling soil water and shoot dynamics in three grass species: A spatial stochastic model on water competition in Neotropical savanna

Savannas are ecosystems known for their high environmental and economic value. They cover at least 20% of the global land surface and, in some cases, can act as a boundary between tropical rainforest and deserts. Water is an important determinant of savanna ecosystems.In this paper, we present a theoretical stochastic model of root competition for water, which couples, soil water availability, phenology, and root and shoot architecture applied to three Neotropical savanna grasses. Soil moisture was simulated using a daily balance, as proposed by Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. [Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Porporato, A., Ridolfi, L., Isham, V., Cox, D.R., 1999. Probabilistic modelling of water balance at a point: the role of climate, soil and vegetation. Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 455, 3789–3805.]. To simulate rainfall stochasticity, we used daily precipitation data from the airport weather station in the State of Barinas, Venezuela, for the period 1991–2007. Competition among neighbouring plants took into account the spatial distribution of the individuals. As a final step, the model allowed us to calculate the shoot dynamic of the species as a function of soil water availability.Using these data, we compared the behaviour of isolated plants, pairs and trios, and we found below-ground competition to be a fundamental component of global (shoot + root) competition. Finally, our model suggests various circumstances that allow poor competitor plants to coexist in competition for water with more successful competitors. Apparently, this is not only due to transpiration rates, but also to differences in shoot emergence and shoot growth.     

Adapting empirical equations to Lake Kinneret data by using three calibration methods

This paper examines whether the relationships between a number of characteristic limnological variables (suspended particulate matter, turbidity, Secchi depth, light attenuation, and chlorophyll a) determined for temperate lakes are consistent with the relationships found in Mediterranean lakes such as Lake Kinneret. We found that the use of published relationships between lake variables may lead to erroneous results when applied indiscriminately to other lake types.     

Lake phosphorus dynamics and climate warming: A mechanistic model approach

Model results in this work indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. A physical lake model and a mechanistic phosphorus model are combined with two temperature scenarios generated by a regional climate model (RCM) in three sites in central Sweden—Lake Erken and two basins of Lake Mälaren (Galten and Ekoln). In the phosphorus model water mixing, mineralization, diffusion and biouptake are temperature dependent. In the simulations, Lake Erken is much more sensitive to climate warming than the two basins of Lake Mälaren, and the reason is shown to be the much longer water residence time in Lake Erken (7 years), stressing the importance of internal lake processes. In Galten and Ekoln the water residence times are less than 1 year, and the effects of water temperature changes are small. In Lake Erken the concentration of epilimnetic-dissolved phosphorus is almost doubled in spring and autumn in the warmest climate scenario. Since the lake is mostly phosphorus limited, this means that the potential for phytoplankton production is almost doubled. The implication would be that in Lake Erken, and in other eutrophic lakes with long water residence times, eutrophication problems may become serious in the future, and that managers may need to take action today in order to maintain good water quality in these lakes.     

A two-dimensional numerical model for eutrophication in Baiyangdian Lake

Hydrodynamic, physical, and biochemical processes in the Baiyangdian Lake water environment were analyzed comprehensively. An eutrophication ecodynamics model including the effects of reed resistance on flow was coupled with the hydrodynamics governing equations. An improvement on the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP, a modeling system introduced by the US Environmental Protection Agency) is established, which uses the zooplankton kinetic equation. The model simulates water quality constituents associated with eutrophication in the lake, including phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and others. Various kinetic coefficients were calibrated using measured data or information from relevant literature, to study eutrophication in the lake. The values calculated by the calibrated model agree well with field data, including ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen. Changes related to nutrition and dissolved oxygen during the processes were simulated. The present model describes the temporal variation of water quality in Baiyangdian Lake with reasonable accuracy. Deviations between model-simulated and observed values are discussed. As an ideal tool for environmental management of the lake, this model can be used to predict its water quality, and be used in research to examine the eutrophication process.     

Simulating the development of chlorophyll maxima in the celtic sea

A chlorophyll maximum is often present in shallow seas during periods of thermal stratification. Data from the Celtic Sea are used to support formulation of a dynamic model describing the vertical-temporal distribution of cyanobacteria, flagellates, diatoms, copepods, ammonium, and nitrate, given year-long background patterns for temperature and available solar radiation. Simulated results include the typical spring diatom peak coupled to mixed layer depletion of ammonium and nitrate, as well as subsequent peaks for other plankters and accumulation of chlorophyll within the thermocline.