中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。     

A comparative review for understanding elite interest and climate change policy in China

China’s climate change policy has rapidly evolved from one of neglect to necessity with sinologists drawing on a wide range of theories in trying to explain this shift. The rising influence of citizens' movements coupled with international pressure are often cited as significant drivers behind the government’s evolving climate change strategy. But can the influence of public pressure and international lobbying offer a complete explanation for the government’s dramatic policy changes? In this article, we advance theoretical pluralism where three contending schools of thought are made complementary to offer distinct explanations for understanding the mechanisms and rationale for Beijing’s elite-driven climate change policy. In brief, by bridging three separate theoretical streams including rational choice theory, authoritarian environmentalism and advocacy coalition framework, we show that the interests of elites in China’s upper political echelon are the driving force behind the country’s climate change policy.     

Once there was a lake: vulnerability to environmental changes in northern Mali

Vulnerability assessment is increasingly recognised as a starting point to identify climate adaptation needs and improve adaptive capacity. However, vulnerability assessments are challenging because of the complexity of multifaceted biophysical, human and institutional factors, interacting at different scales and levels within socio-ecological systems. Using a participatory approach across levels and genders, this paper explores the vulnerability of livestock- and forest-based livelihoods to climate variability and change in Lake Faguibine, northern Mali, where drastic ecological, political and social changes have occurred. Our results show that the distribution of vulnerabilities within livelihoods and groups shifted when the ecosystem evolved from a lake to a forest. New vulnerability drivers have emerged, related to resources availability, access and power relations. In addition, political interests and psychological barriers hinder the local transition to an equitable and sustainable use of forest ecosystem services. Divergent perceptions, social identities, interests and power explained why different actors—governmental and non-governmental, men and women, local, sub-national and national—differed in their vulnerability assessments. This is exemplified in the way actors at different levels and of different gender analysed the effects of herders’ mobility and in the way women analysed men’s migration. This case study confirms the need for participatory and gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments across different scales and levels that consider the interaction between socio-ecological systems and the dynamics and distribution of vulnerability across different social sub-systems.     

How do local communities adapt to climate changes along heavily damaged coasts? A Stakeholder Delphi study in Ky Anh (Central Vietnam)

The Central Vietnamese coast faces increasing impacts on the local livelihoods of coastal communities as a result of the increasing natural hazards which include tropical storms, heavy rains, and floods. A challenge for the local populations is improving their adaptation capacity to climate change hazards in a sustainable way. This study deals with the impacts of climate change-associated hazards and adaptation capacity in coastal communes of the Ky Anh district, Ha Tinh province along the coast in Central Vietnam. A combination of the Stakeholder Delphi technique and the DPSIR (drivers–pressures–states–impacts–responses) framework was used. Delphi questionnaires allowed assessing the consensus among the respondents of a stakeholder group. Twenty questions and 20 statements were listed reflecting the DPSIR components. Thirty-six panel members, which were randomly selected from four stakeholder groups which included local authorities, farmers, fishermen, and fish traders, were involved in a two-round Delphi process. The results show that, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are main drivers (D); migration, calamities, population growth, mineral mining, aquaculture processing, and agriculture are main pressures (P); changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, increasing intensity of storms, floods, and droughts indicate main states (S); changes in agricultural land use and productivity are main impacts (I); construction of and upgrading dykes and irrigation systems should be the principal responses (R) in the vision of the local stakeholders. The Kendall’s W value for the second round is 0.681, indicating a high degree of consensus among the panel members and confidence in the ranks. Overall, the study advocates developing sustainable ecosystems, an upgraded New Rural Planning, and renewable energy strategies as the main local adaptations to climate change hazards in this area.     

Perceptions of climate change risk in four disaster-impacted rural Australian towns

Australia, a country which has regularly experienced various natural disasters, is now set to face more intense and frequent disasters in the twenty-first century as a result of climate change. Prior research indicates that in Australia, the perceived risks of climate change are mixed and becoming less prevalent across rural and urban locations, posing a threat to the public’s adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Research was conducted in four disaster-impacted rural Australian towns to investigate whether prior disaster experience, trust in climate change risk communications and specific location predicted climate change risk perceptions. Four case study sites were chosen exemplifying communities impacted by different types of disaster events. The case study towns were Beechworth (wildfire, 2009) and Bendigo (drought, 2002–2008) in Victoria; Ingham (flood, 2009) and Innisfail (cyclone, 2006) in Queensland. Structural equation modelling analyses of surveys returned by a sample of 1,008 householders across the four towns showed that prior disaster experience had no impact upon climate change risk perceptions. Instead climate change risk perceptions were predicted by trust in climate change communications, climate change knowledge and the geographical location of the sample, suggesting the need for targeted, place-specific contextual communication interventions that consider the needs and socioeconomic characteristics of the community in question.     

Risk as a challenge in practice: investigating climate change in water management

Climate change is one of the risks that society faces today. Among other things, it has the potential to interfere with the water environment, and thus it can be a relevant factor in current work with river basin management plans (RBMPs) in Denmark. At the same time, climate change in theory has characteristics that can pose challenges, if included in such a planning process. In this article, it is investigated what the attitudes towards climate change are among actors in the planning process, and what the main drivers, barriers and challenges related to including climate change in the RBMPs are, compared to the theoretical challenges. The investigation consists of a document study of hearing responses, interviews, and a survey among Danish municipalities. The overall results are that there are many attitudes towards the inclusion of climate change as a factor in RBMPs and that this diversity theoretically can be a challenge in the planning process. The main theoretical and practical barriers and challenges in connection with inclusion of climate change in RBMPs relate to lacking knowledge and uncertainty.     

Direct and indirect effects of climate and fishing on changes in coastal ecosystem services: a historical perspective from the North Sea

Humanity depends on the marine environment for a range of vital ecosystem services, at global (e.g. climate regulation), regional (e.g. commercial fisheries) and local scales (e.g. coastal defence and recreation). At the same time, marine ecosystems have been exploited for centuries, and many systems today are under stress from multiple sources. Recent studies have shown how both climate change and fishing have caused long-term changes in the marine environment. However, there is still poor understanding of how these changes influence change in coastal ecosystem services. In this paper, an integrated modelling approach is used to assess how the final delivery of marine ecosystem services to coastal communities is influenced by the direct and indirect effects of changes in ecosystem processes brought about by climate and human impacts, using fisheries of the North Sea region as a case study. Partial least squares path analysis is used to explore the relationships between drivers of change, marine ecosystem processes and services (landings). A simple conceptual model with four variables—climate, fishing effort, ecosystem process and ecosystem services—is applied to the English North Sea using historic ecological, climatic and fisheries time series spanning 1924–2010 to identify the multiple pathways that might exist. As expected, direct and indirect links between fishing effort, ecosystem processes and service provision were significant. However, links between climate and ecosystem processes were weak. This paper highlights how path analysis can be used for analysing long-term temporal links between ecosystem processes and services following a simplified pathway.     

Scenario analysis for regional decision-making on sustainable multifunctional land uses

Land-use patterns are influenced by both top-down and bottom-up (local) factors, with their interactions varying in both space and time. This provides a major challenge to decision-making for sustainable multifunctional landscapes. A cross-scale scenario structure has been developed to integrate top-down and bottom-up context based upon the familiar IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios framework. Qualitative scenario storylines are converted into multiple quantified simulations of regional land-use change using a series of rules, with information translated across scales using a hierarchical land-use classification. Land-use parcels (fields) are used as key landscape reference units representing the local dimension of regional changes. Biophysical limitations on land use are represented through land capability classes (climate, soils and topography). Socio-economic factors are characterised in reference to global drivers, policy targets or local preferences. A flexible stochastic software tool (LandSFACTS) ensures spatiotemporal coherence of land-use allocation simulations consistent with scenario storylines. Scenario development is designed to be interactive, bridging ‘problem-focussed’ and ‘actor-focussed’ approaches. A case study is presented from NE Scotland, where plans to enhance multifunctionality through new woodland are evaluated against drivers of globalisation and climate change. Competing priorities, such as food security, mean that in some scenarios, a policy objective for woodland expansion to occur on farmland cannot be met. Woodland expansion would then have to occur on uncultivated upland areas. Scenario analysis has highlighted specific sensitivity to change in ‘marginal’ agricultural areas, with the varying influence of different top-down or bottom-up factors leading to divergent potential outcomes.     

Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe

There is now overwhelming evidence of climate change and variability impacts in Africa, among them a reduction in agricultural production. This is a cause for concern given that 70 % of the continent’s population derives its livelihoods directly from rain-fed agriculture. There is need for adaptation strategies at all levels from the national to the local level to mitigate these adverse impacts from climate change. It is important to take advantage of and strengthen already existing household and community strategies. This study used both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to explore the role that livelihood dynamics play in local-level decision-making for adaptation to everyday vulnerability. Risk is considered to extend beyond climate to non-climatic stressors, and the notion of climate change as the major shock among many others is downgraded to one that is secondary to other shocks that even pose more danger to household and community livelihoods. The natural capital remains the basis upon which all the other capitals depend as drivers of choice for adaptation practices. A reorientation of capitals and associated activities is inevitable to deal with everyday vulnerability given that livelihood capitals play a key role in adaptation. Choice of household response strategies to shocks is not entirely intrinsic, but rather integral to a context where other players such as the extension operate to influence adaptation choices. This then highlights the need for embeddedness and context in understanding adaptation and livelihood changes.     

Foreign,Domestic, and Cultural Factors in Climate Change Reporting: Swedish Media’s Coverage of Wildfires in Three Continents

This study examines domestic media’s coverage of foreign wildfires from a climate change perspective. It explores Swedish newspapers’ coverage of wildfires in Australia, the Mediterranean region, and the USA during a three-year period (February 2013–March 2016), focusing on how and to what extent climate change is viewed as an underlying cause. A central result is that climate change is mentioned far more often in the case of Australian wildfires than of fires in the other two regions. Another finding is that the climate change issue became more prominent after a severe domestic wildfire in 2014. These observations are also examined qualitatively through a combined frame and discourse study where the importance of foreign news values, the use of foreign sources, cultural proximity/distance, and domestication procedures are analysed. In conclusion, foreign, domestic, and cultural factors in climate change reporting in relation to extreme events are further discussed.     

气候变化移民:极端气候事件与适应——基于对2010年西南特大干旱农村人口迁移的调查

国际上对气候因素引致人口迁移的直接关联性和重要程度一直存在争议.2010年我国西南地区遭受的特大千旱给探索极端气候事件和气候变化移民之间的复杂关系提供了研究背景.在此特大干旱影晌下,当地农村居民是否、以及怎样采用迁移的方式来应对?本文以2010年8-9月在受灾严重的云南省昆明市寻甸县所进行的田野调查为基础,揭示了特大干旱背景下当地农村人口的迁移行为及特征.调研结果表明在所调查的村组并未因此极端气候事件而引起大规模的气候变化移民活动,无论是暂时的还是永久的.为了解释灾后当地农村人口的迁移选择,本文引入“气候变化一人口迁移响应”的基本理论框架模型,考虑公共和私人两个层面的作用,对当地政府、村集体和农户自身的灾后适应行为进行深入分析和效果评价.结果表明在公共层面的各类帮扶和救助下,农户自身亦采取了多样化的适应措施,两个层面适应行为的共同作用缓解了特大干旱给农户生计带来的压力,使得农户家庭成员的迁移并不成为必须的选择.     

Social participation and climate change

Social participation has been broadly analysed by comparing case studies of different types of socio-economic developments in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). A key objective has been to consider how effective social participation has been in incorporating society’s points of view in the decision making process. In most cases, it would appear that very little can be done by stakeholders to change big decisions on development policies that support public and private development because in reality social participation often only provides an opportunity for discussion and agreement on specific issues regarding how development will be undertaken and how stakeholders will be affected. Although Brazil and the United Kingdom have socio-economic and cultural differences, it is necessary to emphasize that education, self-organization and knowledge of civil rights are crucial for an effective social participation process. As climate change is an important topic for present and future generations and that some of the development activities analysed in this study will emit greenhouse gases, this study also attempts to investigate if climate change mitigation strategies have been integrated into the social participation process. Investigation shows that there is little evidence that climate change mitigation actions involving stakeholders have been integrated into development strategies or have been part of social participation schemes in the case studies analysed. Having said that, the study also describes positive examples of climate change mitigation actions in different parts of the world that involve local people in ‘carbon-neutral’ or ‘social-carbon’ projects and proposes the creation of a carbon-neutral committee that would be responsible for coordinating climate change mitigation measures within development proposals such as the ones analysed in this study.     

Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.     

Exploring the Use of Online Platforms for Climate Change Policy and Public Engagement by NGOs in Latin America

The engagement of environmental non-governmental groups in collaborative communication efforts and decision-making about climate change remains a significant challenge. In Latin America, the website Intercambio Climático was set up to attempt to play a breakthrough role in the region's discussion of climate change. This case study focuses on the development, accomplishments, and challenges of this unique online communication initiative among non-governmental organizations working in climate change issues in Latin America with a US-based partner, as a vehicle to achieve their goals. We used secondary data and in-depth interviews to examine this platform's role in disseminating information and influencing decision-making. The results suggest that generally the participants perceive the website positively, but there are also problematic aspects of the collaboration that are not fully recognized by the members, which prevents a more functional and effective communication strategy.     

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

Climate Engagement in a Digital Age: Exploring the Drivers of Participation in Climate Discourse Online in the Context of COP21

Various scholars underscore the importance of public engagement with climate change to successfully respond to the challenges of global warming. However, although online media provide various new opportunities to actively engage in climate discourse so far very little is known about the drivers of this form of engagement. Against this background, this study tested a theoretical model on the effects of media and interpersonal communication on participation in climate discourse online using data from a representative online survey of German citizens (n?=?1392) carried out while COP21. Overall, the results show that receiving information on climate change from social media (social networks, Twitter, blogs), active information seeking online and interpersonal conversations about COP21 strongly encourage participation in climate discourse online. Moreover, results provide relevant insights on the role of interest in climate politics, personal issue relevance and climate scepticism as preconditions of communication effects.     

Coastal management, climate change adaptation and sustainability in small coastal communities: leatherback turtles and beach loss

Beaches are frequently subjected to erosion and accretion that are influenced by coastal development interventions and natural variations due to storms and changes in river flow. Climate change may also exacerbate beach erosion and accretion. Natural scientists are concerned with the sustainability of species dependent on the beach ecosystem. Policymakers are pre-occupied with the economic sustainability of coastal communities should species decline and prolonged beach loss occur. The aim of this paper is to explore the linkage between science and policy by reporting the findings of a study of coastal change impacts on leatherback turtle nesting and analysing the socio-economic and adaptation implications of these changes for coastal communities. Grande Riviere, Trinidad, was used as a case study. Primary fieldwork investigated unsustainable coastal management practices. A questionnaire was administered to examine livelihoods, including ecotourism based on leatherback turtle nesting, and knowledge and awareness of climate change. One key finding of the study was that the community’s livelihoods were natural resources dependent, and that natural beach dynamics and unsustainable coastal management practices posed major threats to natural resource and economic sustainability. Another key finding was that, despite these impacts, community knowledge and awareness of climate change in general was low, and there was a perception of state responsibility for climate change adaptation. The research findings have global applicability for coastal communities at risk of exposure and that are highly vulnerable to natural resources damage arising from anthropogenic stress and potential climate change. These communities require policy reforms to strengthen current coastal management practices and adaptation responses aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

气候变化条件下的气候移民问题及对策分析

气候变化及其不利影响所导致的现实或潜在的大量气候移民,成为了21世纪人类社会面临的严峻挑战,正日益受到各国政府和国际社会的高度重视和广泛关注。通过对人类社会现实和历史发展进程中,诸种气候变化形式导致的气候移民现象及其概念的剖析;对气候移民数量规模不断攀升、波及区域持续扩大、临时性迁移向永久性移民持续演变、多种因素叠加交织下气候移民问题日趋复杂化等亟需关注与解决的问题进行了透视。针对气候移民问题,提出了加强国际合作、致力减缓与主动适应并举、在国际社会建立应对政策与治理机制和管理机构、降低气候移民的社会脆弱性等对策建议。以期为有效破解气候移民难题,化解气候移民面临的各种社会风险,促进社会的良性运行与协调发展做出初步探索