基于灰色系统理论的煤矿人因事故关键因素分析

通过对煤矿人因失误事故致因因素进行分析,统计出相关的关键影响因素,运用灰色系统关联理论,根据国家安监局近十年煤矿事故统计数据,对煤矿人因失误事故影响类型进行了分析。以煤矿事故发生起数和事故死亡人数作为参考指标,计算和分析行为失误致因、个人违章、组织管理失误等十项主要与煤矿人因事故相关的灰色关联度,进而推算出这些因素的灰色关联序,确定出导致煤矿人因失误事故的关键因素,最终得到煤矿人因事故与关键影响因素之间的定量化分析结果。采用灰色关联理论对煤矿人因失误影响因素进行分析,能够很好地说明人因失误与各关键影响因素之间的权重关系,对煤矿人因事故主致因机理有更加深刻的理解,为煤矿事故的预防和控制提供重要的参考依据。     

基于HFACS的化工企业火灾爆炸事故人因分析*

为研究化工企业火灾爆炸事故的主要人为因素,以63起火灾爆炸事故案例为样本,构建人为因素分析与分类系统（HFACS）模型,进行火灾爆炸事故人为因素分类统计与分析,并利用卡方检验和比值比分析HFACS模型上下层级间的因果关系。结果表明:HFACS模型中上下层级人为因素间存在显著的因果关系,层级1中的“不良的组织氛围”及“组织过程漏洞”和层级2中“监督不充分”在HFACS模型中可以显著增大事故发生的可能性,且“资源管理漏洞”、“不良的组织氛围”、“组织过程漏洞”→“监督不充分”→“人员因素”→“违规”是引发事故的关键路径,并根据HFACS模型中引发事故的关键路径及其人为因素的主要表现形式,提出针对性的化工企业火灾爆炸事故预防措施。     

基于图论的海洋平台连锁风险评价

为控制海洋平台连锁风险,基于图论(GT),提出一种新型定性风险评价方法,将分析对象的复杂风险分析转化为图形分析运算。该方法综合考虑研究对象的风险,重点考虑事故可能的发展模式,建立并转换可能发生的事故的连锁图,用图论算法进行图形运算,得到造成结果事故发生的关键路径、最短路径和点割集,设置并优化安全屏障,防止初始事故发生。最后,结合墨西哥湾事故,建立事故连锁图,通过图形变换与运算得到2条最短路径、3条关键路径和2个点割集,并提出风险控制措施。     

价格对中国煤矿事故的影响分析

针对我国目前煤炭产业严峻的安全形势，本文采用、统计的方法，分析了煤炭价格和产量与煤矿安全生产事故之间的相关关系，验证煤炭价格与煤矿安全生产事故的发生存在协整关系，而且煤价是煤矿伤亡事故的致因，并进一步做回归分析，并尝试从价格的角度揭示煤矿安全生产事故发生的规律。     

CNG加气站危险性分析及事故预防措施研究

本文首先研究提出了国内外CNG加气站的一般组成结构,即调压计量系统、净化干燥系统、气体压缩系统、压缩天然气储存系统、控制系统和售气系统6个子系统;接着对近几年发生的加气站事故进行统计与分析,指出了加气站易发生事故的关键部位一售气系统、高压储气系统和CNG压缩系统;然后对CNG加气站的常见危险有害因素进行了辨识与分析,即高压、易燃易爆、易泄漏、点火源众多等;最后根据辨识结果,研究提出了建设安全监控预警与事故应急综合管理系统等具体事故预防措施。     

基于“纵深防御”原则的危化企业事故预防系统建立

危险化学品生产是当前的高危行业和安全管理的重点领域。面对事故频发的严峻形势,如何开展好危险化学品生产企业的安全管理,建立事故预防系统防止事故的发生非常关键。“纵深防御”原则作为核电厂实现核安全的一项基本原则,为核电厂长期稳定安全的发展奠定了坚实的基础,对危化企业提升事故预防能力,建立事故预防系统有较强的借鉴意义。借鉴“纵深防御”原则,文章分析危化企业应用“纵深防御”原则预防和减少事故发生的必要性,结合生产特点建立了事故纵深防御系统,对企业提高安全管理水平,预防事故的发生有重要的意义。     

Occupational injuries and sick leaves in household moving works

Background. This study is concerned with household moving works and the characteristics of occupational injuries and sick leaves in each step of the moving process. Methods. Accident data for 392 occupational accidents were categorized by the moving processes in which the accidents occurred, and possible incidents and sick leaves were assessed for each moving process and hazard factor. Results. Accidents occurring during specific moving processes showed different characteristics depending on the type of accident and agency of accidents. The most critical form in the level of risk management was falls from a height in the ‘lifting by ladder truck’ process. Incidents ranked as a ‘High’ level of risk management were in the forms of slips, being struck by objects and musculoskeletal disorders in the ‘manual materials handling’ process. Also, falls in ‘loading/unloading’, being struck by objects during ‘lifting by ladder truck’ and driving accidents in the process of ‘transport’ were ranked ‘High’. Conclusion. The findings of this study can be used to develop more effective accident prevention policy reflecting different circumstances and conditions to reduce occupational accidents in household moving works.     

安全控制技术──用“控制论”研究重大工业危险源

首次将“控制论”中过程控制的理论与方法应用于重大工业危险源的安全控制，提出了“安全通道”和“事故临界状态”的概念，它不停留于对危险源的认识上（安全评价），而是针对危险源可能发生的灾难性事故采取切实有效的解决办法，是防止事故的最具成效的研究方法。本方法主要适用于大型、连续化生产的工业对身，用以防止重大事故。     

含硫油品储罐自燃机理及事故原因分析

通过企业现场调研并结合若干事故案例的剖析分析了含S油品储罐自燃事故的发生原因,总结了事故的主要影响因素。在建立含S油品储罐自燃的事故树（FTA）图的基础上,通过最小割集的计算与分析,探讨了事故的主要原因及发生条件,并提出了相应的预防控制措施。     

影响危险化学品生产企业安全评价有效性的因素探讨

随着化学工业的迅速发展,化学品的产量和品种大幅增加,危险化学品生产企业各类事故频发,严重阻碍了化学工业的发展.为此,国家制定了一系列的法律法规,以期遏制恶性事故的发生.安全评价作为预防事故的重要手段,现已广泛应用于各个行业,危险化学品生产企业也不例外.但是,随着安全评价工作的开展,也暴露出与安全评价有关的一些问题.本文简要介绍了我国危险化学品生产企业的安全现状,详细分析了影响危险化学品生产企业安全评价有效性的各种因素,并提出了相应的对策措施.     

Analysis of motorcycle accidents using association rule mining-based framework with parameter optimization and GIS technology

IntroductionAnalyzing key factors of motorcycle accidents is an effective method to reduce fatalities and improve road safety. Association Rule Mining (ARM) is an efficient data mining method to identify critical factors associated with injury severity. However, the existing studies have some limitations in applying ARM: (a) Most studies determined parameter thresholds of ARM subjectively, which lacks objectiveness and efficiency; (b) Most studies only listed rules with high parameter thresholds, while lacking in-depth analysis of multiple-item rules. Besides, the existing studies seldom conducted a spatial analysis of motorcycle accidents, which can provide intuitive suggestions for policymakers. Method: To address these limitations, this study proposes an ARM-based framework to identify critical factors related to motorcycle injury severity. A method for parameter optimization is proposed to objectively determine parameter thresholds in ARM. A method of factor extraction is proposed to identify individual key factors from 2-item rules and boosting factors from multiple-item rules. Geographic information system (GIS) is adopted to explore the spatial relationship between key factors and motorcycle injury severity. Results and conclusions: The framework is applied to a case study of motorcycle accidents in Victoria, Australia. Fifteen attributes are selected after data preprocessing. 0.03 and 0.7 are determined as the best thresholds of support and confidence in ARM. Five individual key factors and four boosting factors are identified to be related to fatal injury. Spatial analysis is conducted by GIS to present hot spots of motorcycle accidents. The proposed framework has been validated to have better performance on parameter optimization and rule analysis in ARM. Practical applications: The hot spots of motorcycle accidents related to fatal factors are presented in GIS maps. Policymakers can refer to those maps straightforwardly when decision making. This framework can be applied to various kinds of traffic accidents to improve the performance of severity analysis.     

Building Safety indicators: Part 2 – Application,practices and results

Petroleum exploration and production in the Barents Sea is a controversial topic. The Goliat field outside the northern coast of Norway will be the first offshore oil development in this region, with planned production start in 2013–2014. Avoiding major accidents at Goliat is critical; not only to reduce the risks to human lives and the environment, but also to gain political acceptance. Providing early warnings of major accidents for Goliat is one of the main objectives of the research project ‘Building Safety’. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of early warnings in the form of indicators. In addition, the paper includes an overview of current status of early warnings of accidents in other major hazard industries; the nuclear power industry, the chemical process industry, and aviation. Experiences from these industries, including lessons learned from recent major accidents, have been used as important input to the development of early warning indicators.     

Quantitative risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals leakage and application

The hazardous chemical accidents remain a matter of major concern. However, there is a dearth of practical measures about the emergency management of hazardous chemicals leakage. Therefore, in order to provide more accurate management plan, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue in chemical industry. The main aim of this study is to quantify the risk of hazardous chemicals leakage, and take precautions against the accidents. In this study, a Fire-Explosion-Poisoning Quantitative Probability Model (FEPQPM) has been established. The paper introduced the probability analysis methods to analyze derivative accidents caused by hazardous chemicals leakage, established quantitative risk assessment models, and made acceptable risk level analysis. This model has been applied to quantitatively assess an enterprise’s storage tank at Changshou Chemical Industrial Distripark (CID) in Chongqing, China. Evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the CID. It is shown that the probability of poisoning is very large, causing more economic loss than the other two types of accidents, and death toll of leakage accident increases over time, resulting in greater economic losses. The risk level of leakage accident involving poisoning is unacceptable.     

基于DEMATEL的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析

针对铁路行车人因事故受多因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于信息熵和DEMATEL法耦合的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析方法。首先依据铁路行车人因事故认知行为模型,从感知、决策、计划和执行4个过程分析铁路行车人因事故的影响因素;然后综合运用信息熵和DEMATEL法构建关键因素量化识别模型,利用中心度和原因度两个参数分析铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素;最后,结合2008—2013年铁路行车人因事故数据进行实证分析。结果表明,机车操作人员相关情形记忆失误、情景诊断失误、未严格执行操作规则和采取错误行动是铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素。     

Investigation of accidents involving powered two wheelers and bicycles – A European in-depth study

Introduction: The number of road fatalities have been falling throughout the European Union (EU) over the past 20 years and most Member States have achieved an overall reduction. Research has mainly focused on protecting car occupants, with car occupant fatalities reducing significantly. However, recently there has been a plateauing in fatalities amongst ‘Vulnerable Road Users’ (VRUs), and in 2016 accidents involving VRUs accounted for nearly half of all EU road deaths. Method: The SaferWheels study collected in-depth data on 500 accidents involving Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) and bicycles across six European countries. A standard in-depth accident investigation methodology was used by each team. The Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) was used to systematically classify accident causation factors. Results: The most common causal factors related to errors in observation by the PTW/bicycle rider or the driver of the other vehicle, typically called ‘looked but failed to see’ accidents. Common scenarios involved the other vehicle turning or crossing in front of the PTW/bicycle. A quarter of serious or fatal injuries to PTW riders occurred in accidents where the rider lost control with no other vehicle involvement. Conclusions: Highly detailed data have been collected for 500 accidents involving PTWs or bicycles in the EU. These data can be further analyzed by researchers on a case-study basis to gain detailed insights on such accidents. Preliminary analysis suggests that ‘looked but failed to see’ remains a common cause, and in many cases the actions of the other vehicle were the critical factor, though PTW rider speed or inexperience played a role in some cases. Practical Applications: The collected data can be analyzed to better understand the characteristics and causes of accidents involving PTWs and bicycles in the EU. The results can be used to develop policies aimed at reducing road deaths and injuries to VRUs.     

1992-2017年近25年硫化氢中毒事故统计分析研究

为系统掌握硫化氢中毒事故特征及规律,预防事故与灾害发生,本文统计分析了1992年1月至2017年12月间275起硫化氢中毒事故发生时间、区域、行业类别、企业经济类型及事故原因等。结果表明:1992—2015年我国硫化氢中毒事故总起数和死亡人数呈明显增长趋势,2005—2017年事故总起数和死亡人数呈下降趋势;硫化氢中毒事故中一般事故占45.82%,较大事故占53.45%;5、6、7、8月份是事故的高发月份;浙江、山东、上海、江苏、新疆等省份是事故多发区;事故发生主要集中在制造业行业,占事故总数的59%;主要事故经济类型是有限责任公司,占事故总数的50%;29.8%的事故因违反操作规程或劳动纪律导致,15.6%的事故因教育培训不够、缺乏安全操作知识导致。     

基于双重预防机制优化企业安全管理研究

为优化企业安全管理,提高安全管理效率,减少事故的发生和降低事故造成后果的严重程度,本文根据双重预防机制的要求和对企业安全管理的研究,采用危险源辨识、事故因果连锁论、安全风险分级和层次分析等方法,通过对可能导致事故发生的各阶段子事件进行分析,研究系统性的危险源辨识、辨析临界事故发生的紧急情况事件、各事件安全风险分级标准和安全管理资源分配等问题。结果表明:企业安全管理体系的优化理论可结合企业实际情况,形成企业自查自改自治的闭环安全管理体系,提高企业对风险管控的效果;并且优化后的安全管理方法对管理资源的利用更为科学,可提高企业安全管理工作的效率。     

LNG as a potential alternative fuel - Safety and security of storage facilities

The aim of this article is to summarize the safety and security aspects of storing of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a potential alternative fuel. The contribution deals with possible scenarios of accidents associated with LNG storage facilities and with a methodology for the assessment of vulnerability of such facilities. The protection of LNG storage facilities as element of critical infrastructure should also be a matter of interest to the state. The study presents the results of determination of hazardous zones around LNG facilities in the event of various sorts of release. For calculations, the programs ALOHA, EFFECTS and TerEx were used and results obtained were compared. Scenarios modelled within this study represent a possible approach to the preliminary assessment of risk that should be verified by more detailed modelling (CFD). These scenarios can also be used for a quick estimation of areas endangered by an incident or accident. The results of modelling of the hazardous zones contribute to a reduction in risk of major accidents associated with these potential alternative energy sources.     

What are we to make of safe behaviour programs?

Safe behaviour programs are currently a popular strategy for improving safety in large organizations. This paper provides a critical look at the assumptions that underlie such programs and identifies some of their limitations.Safe behaviour programs run the risk of assuming that unsafe behaviour is the only cause of accidents worth focusing on. The reality is that unsafe behaviour is often merely the last link in a causal chain and not necessarily the most effective link to focus on, for the purposes of prevention.One major drawback of these programs is that they miss critically important unsafe behaviour, such as attempts by workers to re-start processes that have been temporarily interrupted. Conventional safe behaviour programs aimed at front line workers are also of no use in preventing accidents in which the behaviour of front line workers is not involved.Given that it is the behaviour of management that is most critical in creating a culture of safety in any organization, behavioural safety observations are likely to have their greatest impact if directed upwards, at managers.The paper concludes with an appendix about accident repeater programs that are sometimes introduced along with safe behaviour programs.