灾区居民重建信心及其影响因素研究

汶川地震已2周年了.研究灾区居民的重建信心及影响因素,有利于有针对性采取措施增强他们的重建信心,充分发挥其重建主体作用,从而为实现各项重建任务目标奠定基础,并为青海玉树的灾后重建提供经验借鉴.因此研究受灾群众的重建信心具有重要意义,但相关理论与实证研究鲜见.本文通过回顾国内外的有关文献,构建起评价受灾群众重建信心指标体系,通过2008年8月、2009年2月、2010年1月三个不同时点对五大极重灾县(市)近3 000个样本实证分析,结果表明:不同受灾群众的重建信心在不同时点具有显著差异,目前重建信心有下降趋势;因灾受伤情况越严重、除房屋外因灾财产损失及地震对工作经营或生产影响越大的群体,其重建信心总体上越弱;随着时间推移,"震前经济状况"不同的受灾群众之间的重建信心差异由不显著向显著转变,而"银行住房贷款"数量不同的受灾群体之间的重建信心差异由显著向不显著转变.     

丹江口库区农村待迁移民搬迁意愿分析

丹江口大坝加高工程将动迁33万移民。为了实现和谐搬迁,有必要了解待迁移民对搬迁的态度及其影响因素。采用丹江口库区农村待迁移民194例入户问卷调查资料,进行二项逻辑回归分析,得到结论:目前农业收入比重、偏远村、较远村、成员平均年龄、户主年龄、家庭规模、农忙是否换工、户主受教育年限每变化一个单位,相应的愿意搬迁的发生比分别是26.6,8.7,3.1,0.9,0.7,0.5,0.2和0.1;其中,后5个变量是负向影响。由此可知,目前较高的非农收入比重,较好的地理位置、人力资源和政治资源,会显著降低搬迁意愿。因此,选择经济水平较高的安置地是提高搬迁意愿的重要因素;同时应针对各群体的不同预期,采用分步搬迁和灵活多样的安置、补偿方式。     

基于Mixed-MRIO模型的湖北省洪涝灾害脆弱性区域产业识别

随着区域经济一体化发展,某地区遭受洪涝灾害会通过产业关联对灾区外造成波及影响,准确预估其影响大小有助于城市产业的规划建设。构建直接、波及损失集成评估框架,利用功能脆弱性曲线估算不同超大规模淹没情景下受灾区各产业部门的直接损失,将其设置为外生冲击变量,输入混合多区域投入产出模型(Mixed-MRIO Model),评估灾区外的波及损失,识别湖北省内洪涝灾害脆弱性区域及产业部门。主要结论如下：(1)武汉市中度淹没情景下造成的波及损失是直接损失的36.61%;(2)从区域关联角度分析,荆门市和荆州市与省内其他区域的产业后向关联较为紧密且更加脆弱,在超大规模洪涝灾害冲击数值模拟中所遭受的损失始终位于前列,二者平均损失值约为损失值最小的天门神农架地区的4.8和4.2倍;(3)从产业关联角度分析,省内发生洪涝灾害造成的波及影响主要集中在农业、生活相关制造业以及居民服务业与交通运输、仓储和邮政业等生产性服务业,其中损失值最大的生活相关制造业是损失最小的科学研究和技术服务业的百倍之多。研究结果可为政府制定防灾减灾政策、灾后重建决策等提供参考。     

防霾还是治霾:居民行为选择及意愿研究

本文从提高居民环境参与意识出发,通过抽样调查方式运用结构方程模型分析居民对于PM_(2.5)的认知情况对其行为选择的影响。在此基础上,借助意愿评价法(CVM)、二元选择模型和排序选择模型,建立了居民为降低PM_(2.5)健康风险的支付愿意和支付金额的影响因素模型。研究表明,在居民做出的降低PM_(2.5)健康风险的行为选择中,保护性行为的受影响程度最高;同时,年龄、学历、健康状况、年收入等因素对支付意愿和支付金额有显著影响。     

基于Logit模型的非自愿性移民迁徙分析

我国每年由于建设拆迁、水库工程等引发的移民迁徒数量比较大,移民搬迁涉及政治、经济、社会、民族、宗教、文化等诸多方面,是一项复杂的系统工程.为了更好地为中央对三峡库区移民可持续发展规划提供政策建议,笔者在三峡库区内选择有代表性的W县进行实地调研,调查涉及3个镇、19个村、46个组、9061户,在对调查数据进行Logit分析后得到如下结论:在不考虑搬迁补偿金额和帮扶政策等外部选择条件的前提下,如果只考虑移民自身的特征与其拥有的环境资源禀赋数据会发现:农户自身家庭收入、土地面积以及居住环境、居住位置、居住方式等因素会对农户的搬迁意愿产生显著的影响.因此我们建议在库区搬迁规划时在一定条件下应根据农户的实际条件进行有选择性的搬迁,而不是一刀切式的政策,这样可以避免在实施搬迁过程中的造成的社会冲突与矛盾.     

微观福利视角下的库区移民搬迁意愿调查

三峡地区社会经济的发展受到资源、环境的限制,又面临再次移民的规划.为有效的缓解由于搬迁中搬迁主体与搬迁规划向左而产生的社会矛盾,优化搬迁政策制度,实现社会的和谐,就应分析库区移民自身的福利状态与搬迁意愿之间的关系.本文在福利理论分析框架下建立理论模型并设计问卷,在多层随机抽样调查的基础上,对理论模型进行验证,运用Logit模型建立三个逐次包含的模型,进行回归分析,试图找到对移民搬迁意愿产生较大影响的福利影响因素,并分析其原因.研究表明,对于库区人口搬迁的自身福利的变化而言,最重要的影响因素为:居住环境、居住方式、教育程度、饮水方式、政策了解程度、环境满意度等;收入、承包地面积、工作等因素也起着一定的影响作用;年龄及基础设施建设中的电话和教育建设对于搬迁意愿的影响则不明显.     

四川地震灾后生态低碳均衡的统筹重建模式

5.12汶川大地震破坏了四川的森林、草地、农田和湿地等生态要素,灾区的气候、山体、水体、森林等环境参量受地震影响发生了变化,生态系统表现出高碳不均衡特征。为了解决生态系统高碳化,本文采用系统均衡理论,从灾区生态实际状况出发,归纳出灾后生态系统整体特征——熵值增大化、结构高碳化、生态复杂化、系统巨量化;针对震后生态系统结构表现出的高碳化,通过对生态碳循环规律的深入研究,提出生态碳循环均衡概念,构建出灾后生态低碳均衡结构;运用统筹思想,兼顾自然生态系统和人工生态系统碳循环的不同特点,以自然生态的增汇和人工生态的减源作为实践方向,建立灾后生态重建的运行模式;从生态城市、生态工业、生态农业三个维度实施灾后低碳重建工程,并提出在灾区实施低碳政策、实现低碳生产、构建碳汇基地、建立碳汇市场等相关建议,保障灾后生态恢复与人类社会重建的可持续协调发展。     

基于CVM的长江流域居民水资源利用受偿意愿调查分析

目前国内关于流域生态补偿的研究大多关注补偿者的支付意愿,忽略了受偿者的意愿。为了研究受偿者的受偿意愿,课题组对长江流域相关地区居民的生态补偿认知情况和受偿意愿进行了实地调研,并采用Logit模型和回归分析法对该地区居民受偿意愿进行实证分析。研究发现:居民受偿意愿主要受文化水平、职业和生态补偿认知的影响。具体来说,文化程度越高,居民在补偿标准确立意愿方面表现越强烈;职业因素对居民在补偿主体选择、现金补偿计算依据和非现金补偿方式选择方面的影响较强,对生态补偿了解情况则对上述四个方面都有影响;此外,在选择补偿主体上,国家机关层面中居民选择地方政府作为补偿主体的意愿大于国家作为补偿主体的意愿;在选择补偿标准上,选择相对独立的评定或监督机构和企业制定补偿标准优于国家制定补偿标准;在现金补偿依据上,按影响程度计算更优于按耕地面积计算;在非现金补偿中,优惠政策优于其他形式的非现金补偿。基于研究结论结合长江流域特点提出六方面政策建议,以期实现水资源利用的利益和谐与可持续发展,包括:增强长江流域地区居民环境意识和生态补偿意识,让居民学会维护自己的资源生态权益;建立全流域多元主体参与决策机制,提高流域生态补偿决策效度;科学调制政府与市场的关系,确保市场基础性作用;多元化实施全流域内生态补偿工作,呈现出流域生态补偿体系化效果;协调流域社会系统与流域自然系统关系,推动两大系统的可持续协调发展;强化保障流域内居民发展权实现,建立全流域水资源利用生态补偿机制。     

汶川地震重灾区雅安市资源环境承载力

资源环境承载能力评价是汶川地震灾区灾后恢复重建规划的一项重要基础工作,目的在于为重灾区恢复重建提出适宜人口规模,使灾后重建的人口空间布局与资源环境承载力相适应。对影响资源环境承载力的3个关键要素--耕地资源、水资源和环境容量进行分析评价,应用“木桶短板效应”原理,确定以耕地资源的人口承载力反映整个区域的资源环境承载力;并从耕地粮食的人口承载力和耕地经济收入的人口承载力等2个方面分别进行计算,综合确定人口的合理规模。结果表明：雅安市人口的合理规模,在2010年之前的恢复重建阶段,为1535～159万人,恢复重建阶段基本上不用考虑大规模移民;从2020年实现全面小康而言,为1585～164万人,总体上雅安市的资源环境能够满足其震后人口的小康社会建设需求,但要采取综合性政策措施,引导人口向市域内资源环境承载潜力大、产业、人口聚集能力强的雨城区、名山县转移     

汶川地震旅游资源的保护和利用

汶川地震给灾区带来重大灾难,但同时也留下了地震遗存,这些地震遗存不仅数量和种类丰富,而且极具科考、科普、教育和纪念价值,是震后旅游展示的热点。随着灾后重建的展开和四川旅游的恢复,科学保护和利用这些地震遗存,发挥他们的价值具有重要意义。特别是地震旅游可以作为四川旅游市场恢复的切入点,增加灾区就业,并带动灾区相关产业发展。总结了汶川地震遗存的类型和特点,从旅游资源的角度将其归为自然遗存景观和人文遗存景观两大类并从科学研究、社会公益和旅游经济3个方面对其进行价值分析。在此基础上,对汶川地震旅游资源的保护和管理维护以及汶川地震旅游资源的开发利用提出了建议,以便更好的发挥这些地震遗存的价值。     

The effects of exposure of 60Co on the oxidant/antioxidant status among radiation victims

This retrospective study has been performed with radiation victims who were accidentally exposed to a 60Co source and its release into the environment. The aim of the study was to assess the effects of elevated radiation exposures on plasma level, on erythrocyte thio barbituric acid reactive substance (TBARS) level and on erythrocyte glutathione (GSH) levels. Patients were treated in different hospitals with different symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, dizziness, along with severe anemia in some patients. Blood samples were collected 3-5 days following the radiation accident. Increases in plasma (6.25 +/- 0.90 nmol ml(-1)) and erythrocyte TBARS levels (330.5 +/- 30.5 micromol gHb(-1)) were found in comparison to a healthy group (3.72 +/- 0.68 nmol ml(-1) and 150.7 +/- 20.5 micromol gHb(-1), respectively) at a significant level (p<0.001). Erythrocyte GSH levels (5.2 +/- 0.30 micromol gHb(-1)) were found to be decreased among the victims (healthy group: 10.2 +/- 0.7 micromol gHb(-1)) at the same significance level (p<0.001). These observations confirm a significant change induced by radiation in the oxidant/antioxidant status among the victims. It is suggested here that antioxidant supplementation therapy might be effective in preventing the harmful effects of 60Co radiation among radiation victims.     

基于环境责任保险的动态环境侵权救济体系研究

通过对环境责任保险的定义和特点的总结,以及对其环境侵权救济功能的探讨,得出结论:社会从矫正的正义观到分配的正义观的转变,是推动环境责任保险制度发展的根本原因;赋予第三人直接请求权是环境责任保险制度的重要组成部分;公共补偿制度的建立和发展是对环境责任保险制度的必要补充。在此结论的基础上,以环境侵权受害者能够得到及时有效的救济为出发点,构建了以环境责任保险制度为核心的动态侵权救济体系:民事救济作为第一层次,通过法律程序来确认侵权行为、责任主体以及赔偿额度等事项;环境责任保险作为第二层次,用来分散被保险人的污染损害赔偿责任,补偿受害者损失;公共补偿制度作为第三层次,用来补充民事救济和环境责任保险所未能覆盖到的受害者的人身、财产损失。三个层次联动配合、相互补充,从而在我国面临日益增多的环境污染事故的情况下,为受害者、企业和国家开辟了一条新的环境侵权救济之路。     

Yusho and its latest findings—A review in studies conducted by the Yusho Group

The Yusho incident is an unprecedented mass food poisoning that occurred in Japan in 1968. It was caused by the ingestion of rice bran oil contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and various dioxins and dioxin-like compounds, such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs). The victims of Yusho have suffered from characteristic skin manifestations associated with systemic, ophthalmological, and mucosal symptoms for a long period of time. The Study Group of Yusho (the Yusho Group) has been conducting annual medical check-ups on Yusho victims for more than 45 years. Since 2002, when concentrations of dioxins in the blood of Yusho patients started to be measured, the pharmacokinetics of dioxins, relationship between blood levels of dioxins and symptoms/signs in patients directly exposed to dioxins, and the adverse effects on the next generation have become dramatically clear. Herein we review recent findings of studies conducted by the Yusho Group to evaluate chronic dioxin-induced toxicity to the next generation as well as Yusho patients in comparison with a similar food mass poisoning, the Yucheng incident. Additionally, we summarized basic studies carried out by the Yusho Group to re-evaluate the mechanisms of dioxin toxicities in experimental models and various functions of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), known as the dioxin receptor, pathway.     

Search for social justice for the victims of erosion hazard along the banks of river Bhagirathi by hydraulic control: a case study of West Bengal,India

Frequent erosion along the banks of the river Bhagirathi–Hooghly constitutes one of the most important hazards in West Bengal, India. This frequent nature of erosion is induced by hydraulic control by the construction of Farakka Barrage in 1975 and Indo-Bangladesh water sharing treaty of 1977 and 1996. Water sharing treaties result in fluctuating discharge on 10-day scale in the lean period (January–May). The stream discharge variability affects the bank erosion through its impacts on erodibility factors of banks. It has been observed that in the pre-Farakka period bank erosion was huge only during the monsoon months, and rest of the year, there was little or no bank erosion because in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods, the river Bhagirathi received very little or no discharge from the river Ganga. But in the post-Farakka period, the river Bhagirathi received considerable amount of water in variable quantities from the river Ganga, especially in lean period which has steadied the river bank erosion in the year round. It is to mention that benefits of this planning are to survive the port-industrial economy of South Bengal and provision of fresh water for inhabitants of Kolkata. So beneficiaries of this controlled hydrology must have to pay affluent tax for the victims by this project. In this paper, the nature, mechanism and pattern of bank erosion and its impact on socio-economic vulnerability of the people in the selected erosion-prone areas have been depicted. At the end, a search for social justice for the victims has been articulated from the perspective of Pareto-optimal justice.     

Emissions trading: An improved technique for air quality management

The emissions trading program was one of the first major regulatory reform efforts at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Reagan Administration. This program is a set of guidelines for the states to develop federally approved transactions in discharge permits, called an Emission Reduction Credit. The rules governing emissions trading apply within a total ambient constraint or “pollution budget.” This paper provides a discussion of the emissions trading program as an improved technique for air quality management. The paper begins with a discussion of the concept of emissions trading and how the EPA emissions trading program fits into the U.S. Clean Air Act. It is then argued that emissions trading provides a more cost-effective set of implementation incentives in comparison to a “command and control” regulatory system. A number of important attributes of the emissions trading program are discussed, and estimates of cost reductions are provided. The current status of the implementation of the emissions trading program is discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of several legal, technical, and administrative obstacles to obtaining the efficiencies of emissions trading.     

自愿型环境规制:研究进展及未来展望

环境规制工具的选择决定了生态环境保护的成效,环境规制研究也是当前资源环境领域的研究热点之一。根据政府赋予被规制对象自由裁量权空间从小到大,可以将规制工具分为纯粹政府规制、元规制、自我规制、无约束的自由四种类型。既有研究对传统的纯粹政府规制工具给予了大量的关注,相比而言,对元规制和自我规制等自愿型环境规制工具的关注相对较少。已有的自愿型环境规制的研究主要从俱乐部物品理论、制度主义理论、利益相关者理论等视角出发,探讨自愿型环境规制的供给和需求问题。自愿型环境规制工具作为一种俱乐部物品,实践中面临的最大挑战在于如何克服企业的“搭便车”行为。现有的实证研究分别将自愿型环境规制作为自变量和因变量,分别探究①自愿型环境规制对企业环境绩效和经济创新绩效的影响,以及②企业参与自愿型环境规制的内外部动因。对比国内外文献我们发现,目前基于中国的社会经济背景下的自愿型环境规制的研究非常欠缺,这主要是因为中国在环境规制领域具有长期使用纯粹政府规制工具的传统,自愿型环境规制的实践较为欠缺,目前在中国实践较为广泛的自愿型环境规制工具仅有ISO14001环境管理体系以及化工行业的“责任关怀”体系。最后,本文基于现有对于中国自愿型环境规制研究的不足,展望了未来研究可能的方向。我们认为既有对于自愿型环境规制的研究更多关注对企业绩效的因果效应,而对其如何影响企业绩效的因果机制识别不足;此外,现有文献很少将中国特色的政治、经济、社会因素纳入自愿型环境规制的研究领域,未来的研究应当多从这两个方面着手深入。     

Economic implications of groundwater exploitation in hard rock areas of southern peninsular India

The present paper analyses the consequences of groundwater exploitation by using field-level data collected from two distinct well irrigated areas of Karnataka. The study results show that the consequences arising out of groundwater overexploitation are severe in high well interference area compared to low well interference area. The burden of well failure is more or less equally shared by all categories of farmers but small farmers are the worst victims of resource scarcity. As a result, overexploitation of groundwater has different impacts on different categories of farmers in terms of access to groundwater, cost and returns to groundwater irrigation and its negative externality cost. The study suggests maintaining inter-well distance to prevent resource mining and calls for supply and demand side interventions. The institutional reform is necessary to restore surface water bodies to facilitate aquifer recharge.     

关于计划生育法制建设的思考

社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善，给计划生育工作带来了一系列的新情况、新问题。因此，把计划生育工作纳入法制的轨道显得尤为重要。本文分析了我国计划生育工作靠行政约束的局限性；总结了市场经济体制下，计划生育工作面临的新特点；阐述了加强计划生育法制建设的紧迫性和可行性；并提出了计划生育立法的基本思路     

Defining climate-change victims

This article introduces the concept of “climate-change victims” and classifies categories of threats and groups of people who would be vulnerable to and victimized by human-induced climate change. (The full, correct wording is “human-induced climate-change victims”, but we will use just “climate-change victims” in the rest of the article.) It offers a definition with three levels of climate-change victimization and differentiates “climate-change victims” from “natural-disasters victims” and from “climate-change migrants”. The article sets an agenda for a new type of victimhood and could lead to further research on possible prevention, accountability measures, environmental tribunals, and compensation mechanisms to recompense climate-change victims.