北京市模拟给水管网管壁微生物膜群落分析

以北京市模拟给水管网管壁微生物膜为研究对象,采用HPC(异养菌平板计数)和PCR-SSCP(单链构象多态性)方法,分析模拟给水管网管壁微生物膜异养菌数目和微生物群落结构.结果表明,在相同流速条件下,镀锌钢管的管壁微生物数量约为PVC管的5倍.在相同材质的镀锌钢管内,死水区的HPC计数量约为0.6m·s-1,是流速区的1/5.计数结果的差异可能与不同材质表面的光滑度及流速造成微生物生长所需的氧气和营养基质不同有关.而不同材质和不同流速区微生物群落的SSCP电泳图谱则显示为一样,均在相同位置出现同样条带.测序结果显示, SSCP电泳图中的3条带与蜡状芽孢杆菌(Bacillus cereus, GenBank登录号为AB190077)、假单胞菌(Peudomonas sp.yged143, GenBank登录号为EF419342)和未分类细菌(Bacterium UASWS0134, GenBank登录号为DQ190347)的同源性分别为100%、99%和94%.测序结果的一致性可能与取样点为同一模拟管网,距离比较接近,不同微生物容易在其中流动和转移有关.而潜在致病菌蜡状芽孢杆菌和假单胞菌的存在则提示应该更加重视饮用水的微生物安全性.     

An integrated climate change assessment for the Northeast United States

The papers in this Special Issue are the primary technical underpinnings for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), an integrated regional-scale assessment of projected climate change, impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation across the US Northeast. The consequences of future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions on projected climate and impacts across climate-sensitive sectors is assessed by using downscaled projections from three global climate models under both higher (Alfi) and lower (B1) emissions scenarios. The findings illustrate that near-term reductions in emissions can greatly reduce the extent and severity of regionally important impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and public health in the latter half of this century, and increase the feasibility that those impacts which are now unavoidable can be successfully managed through adaptation.     

An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections

Estimates of uncertainty are presented for projections of forest carbon inventory and average annual net carbon flux on private timberland in the US using the model FORCARB. Uncertainty in carbon inventory was approximately ±9% (2000 million metric tons) of the estimated median in the year 2000, rising to 11% (2800 million metric tons) in projection year 2040, with this range covering 95% of the distribution. Relative uncertainties about net flux were higher and more variable than relative uncertainty estimates of carbon inventory. Results indicated that relatively high correlations among projected carbon budgets for the regional forest types led to greater total uncertainty than under assumptions of independence among types, indicating that an accurate portrayal of correlations is important. Uncertainty in soil carbon, closely followed by uncertainty in tree carbon, were most influential in estimating uncertainty in carbon inventory, but uncertainties in projections of volume growth and volume removals were most important in estimating uncertainty in carbon flux. This implies the most effective ways of reducing uncertainty in carbon flux are different from those required to reduce uncertainties in carbon inventory. Analyses as presented here are necessary prerequisites to identify and reduce uncertainty in a systematic and iterative way.     

Indigenous benefits and carbon offset schemes: An Australian case study

The nexus between human rights and the environment is a key issue for climate policymakers and Indigenous peoples around the world. We combine national spatial, social and biological datasets from Australia to describe where Indigenous carbon projects are happening, why Indigenous people are participating, and how effective these schemes might be at marrying Indigenous co-benefit, biodiversity and carbon emission mitigation goals. Our study shows that many Indigenous people engage in carbon offset schemes as part of their broader cultural responsibility for landscapes, and that they seek to grow the relationship between social and ecological benefits. It also highlights the challenges associated with designing carbon offset schemes that address the impacts of climate change and respond to Indigenous peoples’ world views about what is required to sustain cultural-social-ecological systems.     

An assessment of potential responses of Melaleuca genus to global climate change

The genus Melaleuca consists of around 260 species covering over eight million hectares (including native and introduced species) and distributed mostly in Australia, but also occurring in South-East Asia, the Southern United States and the Caribbean. Melaleuca populations predominantly occur in wetland or/and coastal ecosystems where they have been significantly affected by climate change. This paper assesses the potential responses of the Melaleuca genus to climate change, based on the synthesis of worldwide published data. The main findings include: (i) that the Melaleuca genus has a rich species diversity, and significant phenotypic diversity in a variety of ecosystems; (ii) they demonstrate significant local adaptation to harsh conditions; and (iii) the fossil records and taxon biology indicate the evolution of the Melaleuca genus began around 38 million years ago and they have survived several significant climatic alterations, particularly a shift towards cooler and drier climates that has occurred over this period. These findings show that the Melaleuca genus is highly resilient and adaptable and based on this, this paper argues that Melaleuca can adapt to climate change through Wright’s ‘migrational adaptation’, and can be managed to achieve sustainable benefits.     

An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM Project

This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 and 2100. Scenarios consisted of trends in emissions, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition and climate change. Critical loads and critical levels were used to assess the impacts of deposition to forest soils and a new analogous concept of “critical climate change” was developed to assess the impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the limitations of the scope and models used in the study, preliminary conclusions were: (1) regional air pollution and climate change may be fairly weakly coupled in the natural environment, i.e. climate change was not found to have a large impact on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to regional air pollution, nor on the distribution of deposition; nor did regional air pollution (in the form of sulfate aerosols) have a significant impact on climate change in Europe; (2) however, regional air pollution and climate change may be strongly coupled in the “policy” environment. It was estimated that virtually all of Europe at mid-century might be affected by either regional air pollution or climate change, or both, and this will require a strong policy response. Moreover, the indirect effects of climate policies were found to reduce the costs of controlling air pollution emissions by more than 50%, suggesting a strong potential financial linkage between policies to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.     

气候传播,应对气候变化的“提速器”

任何问题的传播都同时伴随人们对这个问题的关注。从受众的角度出发,因为关注,就会有兴趣了解更多,从而催生传播的需求;从传播者的角度分析,只有通过传播,才能使问题得到广泛的、正确的认知,从而推动问题早日解决。毫无疑问,气候变化已经成为全人类共同面对的挑战,气候传播势在必行。     

静电放电模拟器校验系统的设计与实现

自主开发了静电放电模拟器校验系统,可对静电放电电流波形进行测试。测试系统硬件由新型理工Pommerenke电流靶和高性能示波器等组成。介绍了在LabVIEW平台上开发基于GPIB总线的虚拟仪器的全过程及其硬件和软件要求,通过USB／GPIB接口转换器实现了计算机和示波器的通讯,使用示波器的驱动程序实现了对泰克示波器的完全控制。试验证明该校验系统能很好地完成静电放电电流波形的实时采集测量,并将测试结果存盘以供后续分析处理。这种实现方案显著提高了测试工作的效率、精确度以及自动化程度。     

气候变化对景观和区域过程的影响及其对气候系统的反馈

北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向.     

Reducing black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles in Russia: An assessment and policy recommendations

The paper assesses options and challenges of reducing black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles in Russia. Black carbon is a product of incomplete diesel combustion and is a component of fine particulate matter. Particulate matter emissions have adverse health impacts, causing cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer; black carbon is also a large climate forcer. Black carbon emissions from Russian diesel sources affect not only the Russian territory but also contribute to overall pollution. This paper analyzes current ecological standards for vehicles and fuel, evaluates policies for emission reductions from existing diesel vehicle fleet, and assesses Russia's attempts to encourage the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel. Based on best practices of black carbon emission reductions, this paper provides a number of policy recommendations for Russia.     

河口陆基养虾塘沉积物铁的含量和形态

为研究河口陆基养殖塘底泥中铁的迁移和转化机制,本文测定了福建省3个河口养虾塘养殖期表层和亚表层底泥沉积物中活性铁含量及间隙水的常见组分.结果表明,不同站点间晶质Fe（III）、非硫Fe（II）、有机铁、铁硫化物含量存在显著差异.间隙水SO₄^2-和Cl^-可能是影响不同站点间Fe的形态和分布存在异质性的主要环境影响因子之一.盐度较高的养虾塘,铁的硫化物含量较高,有机铁和晶质Fe（III）含量较少.陆基养虾塘底泥沉积物中活性铁含量按固相Fe（III） > 铁硫化物 > 非硫Fe（II） > 有机铁的顺序排列.养虾塘亚表层沉积物铁硫化物（FeS和FeS₂）含量高于表层沉积物,而表层沉积物有机铁含量与间隙水SO₄^2-和NH₄⁺浓度高于亚表层沉积物.铁硫化物的生成一定程度上降低河口陆基养虾塘沉积物营养盐污染的潜在风险.     

The role of carbon sequestration and the tonne-year approach in fulfilling the objective of climate convention

Carbon can be sequestered from the atmosphere to forests in order to lower the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Tonne-years of sequestered carbon have been suggested to be used as a measure of global warming impact for these projects of finite lifetimes. It is illustrated here by simplified example cases that the objective of the stabilisation of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations expressed in the UN Climate convention and the tonne-year approach can be in contradiction. Tonne-years generated by the project can indicate that carbon sequestration helps in the mitigation of climate change even when the impact of the project on the CO₂ concentration is that concentration increases. Hence, the use of the tonne-years might waste resources of fulfilling the objective of the convention. The studied example cases are closely related to the IPCC estimates on global forestation potentials by 2050. It is also illustrated that the use of bioenergy from the reforested areas to replace fossil fuels can in the long term contribute more effectively to the control of carbon dioxide concentrations than permanent sequestration of carbon to forests. However, the estimated benefits depend on the time frame considered, whether we are interested in the decadal scale of controlling of the rate of climate change or in the centennial scale of controlling or halting the climate change.     

大型空间环境模拟器真空系统配置技术研究

分别对国内外大型空间环境模拟器的真空系统配置进行了介绍,并对真空系统各个子系统的配置与技术特点进行了分析,重点针对大型空间环境模拟器真空系统中所需的真空抽气策略进行了研究,为后续超大型环境试验设备的研制和试验测试提供了参考。     

模拟气候升温对湿地土壤微生物群落及磷素形态的影响

通过构建微宇宙湿地柱模拟气候升温的方法,采用高通量测序和核磁共振技术,分别研究了湿地土壤微生物群落和磷素形态对暖化作用的响应特征.结果表明,暖化作用导致了Firmicutes、Clostridia、Clostridiales、Clostridiaceae和Clostridium的相对丰度分别显著下降65%~98%、69%~87%、67%~87%、73%~97%和74%~93%,这表明暖化作用对不同分类水平上的物种Firmicutes到Clostridium具有显著的抑制效应.通过主坐标分析和聚类分析,不同湿地柱采样点的暖化组与对照组样本表现出显著的分离特征,揭示了暖化作用能够诱导微生物群落组成发生显著性变化.磷酸单酯和正磷酸盐是各湿地柱土壤主导的磷素形态,同时暖化作用导致了XX湿地柱采样点的磷酸单酯和正磷酸盐相对丰度分别显著升高275%和下降20%,JH湿地柱采样点的磷酸单酯和多聚磷酸盐相对丰度分别显著升高85%和下降49%,这表明不同磷素形态对暖化作用的响应具有土壤异质性特征.通过典型对应分析,揭示了暖化条件下微生物群落组成的显著变化对磷素形态具有显著的影响效应.     

An assessment of carbon stock for various land use system in Aravally mountains, Western India

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries is of the central importance in efforts to combat climate change. A study was conducted to measure carbon stocks in various land-use systems including forms and reliably estimates the impact of land use on carbon (C) stocks in the forest of Rajasthan, western India (23°3′–30°12′N longitude and 69°30′–78°17′E). 22.8% of India is forested and 0.04% is the deforestation rate of India. In Indian forest sector of western India of Aravally mountain range covered large area of deciduous forest and it’s very helpful in carbon sequestration at global level. The carbon stocks of forest, plantation (reforestation) and agricultural land in aboveground, soil organic and fine root within forest were estimated through field data collection. Results revealed that the amount of total carbon stock of forests (533.64?±?37.54 Mg·ha^?1, simplified expression of Mg (carbon) ·ha^?1) was significantly greater (P?<?0.05) than the plantation (324.37?±?15.0 Mg·ha^?1) and the agricultural land (120.50?±?2.17 Mg·ha^?1). Soil organic carbon in the forests (172.84?±?3.78 Mg·ha^?1) was also significantly greater (P?<?0.05) than the plantation (153.20?±?7.48 Mg·ha^?1) and the agricultural land (108.71?±?1.68 Mg·ha^?1). The differences in carbon stocks across land-use types are the primary consequence of variations in the vegetation biomass and the soil organic matter. Fine root carbon was a small fraction of carbon stocks in all land-use types. Most of the soil organic carbon and fine root carbon content was found in the upper 30-cm layer and decreased with soil depth. The aboveground carbon (ABGC): soil organic carbon (SOC): fine root carbon ratios (FRC), was 8:4:1, 4:5:1, and 3:37:1 for the forest, plantation and agricultural land, respectively. These results indicate that a relatively large proportion of the C loss is due to forest conversion to agricultural land.     

中国地区黑碳气溶胶的气候效应模拟

RegCM模式对于中国区域气候要素模拟的准确性已得到本地化验证,但系统默认的数据源往往不具备本地化的特征,尤其是气溶胶排放清单设定的生物质源具有季节变化性,人为源为固定值,大大降低了人为源的气溶胶气候效应影响。采用多尺度排放清单模型(MEIC)计算的2013年黑碳气溶胶排放清单,设置不同试验情景,对比分析了人为黑碳气溶胶的气候效应。结果表明:黑碳气溶胶的加入使中国地区的辐射强迫、温度、降水以及黑碳气溶胶柱含量都产生明显变化,且有显著季节变化特征;随着季节变化,气候要素的增减效应范围不同,温度呈由南向北的增长趋势,降水量呈南增北减的趋势,黑碳气溶胶柱含量高值区集中出现在南方工业聚集区。     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

黄河三角洲潮间带底栖动物群落结构分析及环境质量评价

2010年5月与8月对黄河三角洲湿地7个潮间带断面的大型底栖动物进行了定量调查,研究了其物种组成、生物量、栖息密度、优势种等群落结构特征,并采用大型底栖动物污染指数(MPI)对该区域环境质量进行了评价。调查中共获得大型底栖动物33种,隶属于软体动物(16种)、甲壳动物(9种)、多毛类环节动物(4种)、鱼类(2种)和腕足动物(1种);优势度指数较高,群落优势种较为集中,主要为光滑河蓝蛤、彩虹明樱蛤、泥螺、托氏昌螺、短文蛤、拟沼螺、双齿围沙蚕、日本刺沙蚕和四角蛤蜊;栖息密度和生物量分别为692.30/m2和658.94 g/m2,因季节及环境状况差异而不同;由MPI评价结果可知,黄河三角洲湿地潮间带总体为清洁和轻度污染,环境质量良好。