“三高”气田钻井过程硫化氢泄漏动态风险分析

传统的H2S泄漏风险分析方法不能很好地对事故发展过程进行动态分析,导致分析结果偏离实际。基于贝叶斯方法,构建了高温、高压、高含硫（“三高”）气田钻井过程中H2S泄漏的蝴蝶结模型并提出将其转化为贝叶斯网络,在事故已发生的情况下更新基本事件发生的概率。然后,假定事故后果在确定的时间段内发生的累积次数已知的条件下,更新安全屏障及事故后果发生的概率,从而完成对H2S泄漏的动态风险分析。结果表明,该方法克服了传统静态定量分析方法中的不足,可动态评估导致H2S泄漏的基本事件发生的概率和对顶事件发生的影响程度,并动态反映安全屏障和事故后果的风险变化,能为钻井过程中H2S泄漏的风险分析及防控措施提供参考。     

石化企业平面布局多米诺效应指标表征研究

多米诺效应是导致石化企业火灾、爆炸及中毒事故后果扩大的根本原因,往往会引起事故损失成倍增长,而合理的平面布局设计可以大幅降低企业的多米诺效应风险。本文在前人研究的多米诺效应评估指标基础上,结合源发事故单元事故场景发生概率、多米诺事故扩展概率,以及目标单元事故强度等概念,构建了基于源发事故单元及目标单元多米诺风险的表征表达式,进一步构建了评估整体布局多米诺风险的评估指标并给出了具体的实施程序,用于评估单元和整个布局的多米诺风险。研究表明该法能够反映厂区布局多米诺特征,对于持续完善多米诺评估指标研究工作以及工程建设初期的布局草案筛选具有一定意义。     

基于Bow-Tie技术的民用机场安全风险分析应用研究

民用运输机场具有运行环境复杂、事故成因复杂、驻场单位众多等特点,其事故成因更具有动态性、隐蔽性、综合性和因果连带性。因此,机场的日常运行安全风险分析一般需要借助多种工具才能完成。本文系统的介绍了一种实用的风险分析方法-Bow-tie风险技术,Bow-tie是一种风险分析和风险管理的工具,通过识别和评估风险、分析风险因素、设置风险屏障、采取风险控制和(减缓)恢复措施,有效预防事故发生。该方法可以对危害事件发生的原因、后果、屏障建立是否充足提供一个可视化的评估。本文就Bow-tie技术在民用机场安全风险中的具体实施步骤进行了描述,最后给出了其在民用机场风险分析中应用的一个实例,并就其可行性和实际应用进行了系统的研究。Bow-tie风险技术是集故障树、事件树和圆葱图理论相结合的系统风险分析及量化技术,对组织缺陷以及人为失误占主导因素的民用机场运行安全风险分析,具有较高的应用价值。     

基于安全屏障模型的海上钻完井作业风险分析

海上钻完井作业面临海洋环境恶劣、浅层地质灾害等复杂工况,极易发生油气泄漏、井喷等事故。为有效预防海上钻完井作业事故,提出基于瑞士奶酪模型的安全屏障模型。采用事故树和故障模式及影响分析相结合的方法,分析作业过程风险。该模型根据挪威标准D-010,建立完井作业关井阶段的物理安全屏障和安全屏障控制原理图,在此基础上构建油气泄漏事故树和失效模式与影响分析表,找出关井阶段可能的油气泄漏途径。通过对重要度计算和风险优先度值排序确定作业过程中最薄弱的安全屏障和关键故障模式。结果表明,作业过程中最薄弱的安全屏障是采油树、油管和地面控制井下安全阀(SCSSV),采油树腐蚀、密封失效、油管接头密封失效和SCSSV开关故障是影响作业过程的关键故障模式。     

米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究

为了研究多米诺效应中多事故点协同作用的后果,将并联系统概率模型运用到贝叶斯概率计算过程中,体现出多事故点协同作用对多米 诺效应传播的概率影响;后果分析部分从人、物、环境3个方面出发,对事故的后果影响以及事故预防提出建议措施。最后运用模型对实例进行 了应用分析,结果表明:多事故点协同作用下储罐的多米诺失效概率增大,罐区危险性增强,可以通过对储罐设置安全屏障等措施,有效的切 断导致事故最大概率的链条。     

多米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究

为了研究多米诺效应中多事故点协同作用的后果,将并联系统概率模型运用到贝叶斯概率计算过程中,体现出多事故点协同作用对多米诺效应传播的概率影响;后果分析部分从人、物、环境3个方面出发,对事故的后果影响以及事故预防提出建议措施。最后运用模型对实例进行了应用分析,结果表明:多事故点协同作用下储罐的多米诺失效概率增大,罐区危险性增强,可以通过对储罐设置安全屏障等措施,有效的切断导致事故最大概率的链条。     

基于定量风险评价的危险化学品重大危险源外部安全防护距离计算

结合笔者日常工作实践,介绍采用定量风险评价法计算重大危险源外部安全防护距离的计算步骤。根据风险的实质为事故发生概率和后果严重性的乘积,对于外部安全防护距离不足的重大危险源企业,从降低事故发生概率和后果严重性两方面提出降低风险的措施。     

基于风险的临港石化基地港口安全运输量研究

临港石化基地港口运输量大小直接影响到事故后果的严重程度。为有效控制港口危险品运输风险,提升港口安全水平,建立了基于风险的港口危险品安全运输量计算模型。以港口码头和船舶为出发点,选取池火灾、蒸气云爆炸、毒气泄漏3种典型事故,将事故预期死亡人数和事故发生概率相结合得到港口运输风险,并将人员平均风险值与可接受个人风险上限值比较,判断其合理性,根据每吨易燃、爆炸、有毒危险品对当班人员造成的平均风险值,推导得到最大安全运输量。计算实例表明,所建计算模型具有较好的可操作性和实用价值。     

基于原因-后果分析的机械安全性评估模型研究

阐述建立基于原因-后果分析(CCD)的机械系统安全性评估模型的步骤以及基本事件重要度计算的方法,在此基础上,建立除尘式砂轮机可能发生事故的CCD模型。该模型计算结果显示:首先,除尘式砂轮机的砂轮破裂飞出造成伤人的事故发生概率、严重程度、风险度最高;其次,大量粉尘飞扬造成的后果风险度排在第二,相对较高;最后,防护措施可使该设备事故概率大幅下降。CCD模型可以帮助找到机械系统的相关安全事故类型,并能够衡量出系统"本质安全"能力,从而为设计和安全监察部门进行安全设计及设备管理提供决策依据。     

不完全信息条件下的FPSO油气泄漏风险分析

为解决数据稀缺情况下的浮式生产系统(FPSO)油气泄漏重大事故风险评价问题,引入新的层次贝叶斯风险分析(HBA)方法。首先,基于安全屏障和事件树分析,建立FPSO油气泄漏事件序列模型;其次,根据事故先兆数据和贝叶斯推断,对安全屏障的先验分布增加一层估计,得到FPSO油气泄漏连锁事故的发生概率;最后,通过实时更新屏障失效概率,实现对FPSO事故风险的动态定量分析。结果表明:HBA法可以充分利用稀缺数据,并从相关数据中添加先验信息,得到各参数的后验概率,并据此确定,初始的油气泄漏大多会演变为大范围泄漏和小范围火灾。     

A development in energy flow/barrier analysis

In this paper, the occupational accidents and their effects on people are modeled. The basis of energy flow/barrier analysis is used to define an accident as the impact of a hazardous agent on a target, as a result of failure of control and protective barriers. This definition is enhanced to include serial and parallel barriers and to distinguish energy barriers from target barriers. The barrier attributes are defined and used to create a quantitative scenario-building model. The probability and severity of various accidents are estimated, by studying barrier reliability and efficiency. This approach is used to develop and simulate accident scenarios and to calculate their consequences. This model can be used in complex systems for analyzing the risk and estimating the importance of barriers.     

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

基于序次Probit模型的航道船舶碰撞危险度研究

船舶碰撞严重威胁着船舶水上航行的安全,船舶碰撞危险度的研究能够为船舶避碰提供有效的预防手段和合理的科学依据。选取航道船舶碰撞危险度作为状态变量,选取船舶会遇方式、风速和能见度作为控制变量,运用序次Probit模型拟合出碰撞危险度状态方程。分别对人为判断和序次Probit模型的碰撞危险度利用插值技术,描绘出控制变量对状态变量的作用效果变化特征图。研究结果表明,拟合状态方程可以良好地表征系统状态的连续变化特征,序次Probit模型能够有效克服人为判断的不确定性。     

A safety barrier-based accident model for offshore drilling blowouts

Blowout is one of the most serious accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry. Accident records show that most of the offshore blowouts have occurred in the drilling phase. Efficient measures to prevent, mitigate, and control offshore drilling blowouts are important for the entire offshore oil and gas industry. This article proposes a new barrier-based accident model for drilling blowouts. The model is based on the three-level well control theory, and primary and secondary well control barriers and an extra well monitoring barrier are established between the reservoir and the blowout event. The three barriers are illustrated in a graphical model that is similar to the well-known Swiss cheese model. Five additional barriers are established to mitigate and control the blowout accident, and event tree analysis is used to analyze the possible consequence chains. Based on statistical data and literature reviews, failures of each barrier are presented. These failures can be used as guidance for offshore drilling operators to become aware of the vulnerabilities of the safety barrier system, and to assess the risk related to these barriers. The Macondo accident is used as a case study to show how the new model can be used to understand the development of the events leading to the accident. The model can also be used as an aid to prevent future blowouts or to stop the escalation of events.     

基于Bowtie模型的机场安全风险分析

运用Bowtie模型对隐患、可能的事故原因以及后果进行评判,分析重点放在风险控制和组织控制的薄弱环节上。利用Bowtie模型,分析机场安全风险,以跑道侵入事件为算例进行深入分析,探讨影响机场安全风险的组织因素。量化影响跑道侵入的结构重要度,计算不同阶段、不同条件下,可能导致跑道侵入事件发生的概率。从风险管理和组织安全的角度,预防跑道侵入事件的发生提供理论依据和实际指导。     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

火电厂(汽轮机部分)职业安全健康风险评价与控制研究

依据职业安全健康管理(OSHM)的要求,在危险辨识的基础上对火力发电厂(汽轮机部分)的危险源进行分类及其相互作用、影响的分析,建立了职业安全健康管理模式及其问卷,针对现场的运行、维修和试验部分进行了详细的调查。应用工业风险评价的定性及量化分析方法,通过现场调研和分析,对各种危险性事件发生的可能性及其后果的严重度进行评价,从安全管理和安全工程两方面提出对不可接受的危险源的预控措施。危险源的有效预测和控制,对火电厂职业安全健康水平的提高将发挥积极作用。     

An integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network

Natural gas industry is developing rapidly, and its accidents are threatening the urban safety. Risk management through quantitative assessment has become an important way to improve the safety performance of the natural gas supply system. In this paper, an integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network is proposed. This method is composed of the probability assessment of accidents, the analysis of consequences and the evaluation of risk. It is noteworthy that the consequences analyzed here include those of the outside and inside gas pipelines. The analysis of consequences of the outside pipelines focuses on the individual risk and societal risk caused by different accidents, while those of the inside pipelines concerns about the risk of the economic loss because of the pressure re-distribution. Risk of a sample urban gas pipeline network is analyzed to demonstrate the presented method. The results show that this presented integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network can be used in practical application.     

Dynamic-risk-informed safety barrier management: An application to cost-effective barrier optimization based on data from multiple sources

An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization.