MATLAB在储罐区蒸气云爆炸分析中的运用

针对储罐区蒸气云爆炸事故,通过建立蒸气云爆炸模型和运用MATLAB程序分析事故后果,得出了死亡、重伤、轻伤的区域半径,进而对伤害区域进行了划分,并将结果以图形的形式呈现,有利于安全人员直观地判断和分析事故后果.同时,借助MATLAB程序使整个分析过程更加简洁高效,有利于制定相应的预防和应急措施.     

蒸气云爆炸后果预测模型的比较研究

介绍了3种蒸气云爆炸后果预测模型,分别是TNT当量模型、多能法、Baker-Strehlow模型。阐述了这些模型的基本原理,将3种模型进行了对比研究,并将3种模型的无量纲距离和超压关系绘制在了同一图中。对某一蒸气云的爆炸后果进行了预测,并对结果进行了分析,指出了不同模型的优缺点。     

改进的蒸气云爆炸模型在LNG储罐爆炸模拟中的应用

针对TNT当量法在LNG储罐蒸气云爆炸模拟中的应用进行了改进,考虑并分析了使用传统TNT模型时所忽略的LNG液池蒸发过程,通过建立LNG与地面的传热模型得出了LNG液池蒸发速率随时间变化的关系,液池的蒸发速率在最初随时间的增长较快,在增至最大值后与时间的平方根成反比逐渐减小。以3万m~3 LNG储罐连续泄漏20 min为例,根据蒸发速率与时间的关系算出了蒸气云团中的燃料量,再结合蒸气云爆炸模型利用Matlab软件进行了事故后果模拟计算,得出发生蒸气云爆炸时的死亡半径为36.629 5 m,重伤半径为83.557 6 m,轻伤半径124.725 m,财产损失半径为109.017 9 m。相较于无蒸发过程的传统模型,此计算结果更加具有参考意义。     

蒸气云爆炸模型在原油储罐火灾事故中的应用研究

本文分析了原油储罐的火灾爆炸事故特点,介绍了蒸气云爆炸模型中热辐射伤害模型以及TNT模型和TNO模型。选取蒸气云爆炸TNT模型以及热辐射伤害模型对10×104m3原油储罐泄漏事故形成的蒸气云爆炸进行后果定量分析,对事故产生的热辐射和冲击波对人员造成的伤害程度进行了对比分析,得出目标到爆炸源距离较近时热辐射对人员造成的伤害较大,目标到爆炸源距离较远时冲击波对人员造成的伤害较大。     

码头油品蒸气云爆炸事故危害评价

运用“蒸气云爆炸”模型,对某码头油品蒸气云爆炸事故危害程度进行分析评价,得出油品爆炸事故危害程度分布的规律,为码头安全运行提供参考。     

苯的蒸气云爆炸伤害分析

介绍了蒸气云爆炸事故机理以及4种方法研究蒸气云爆炸破坏力的影响范围,并根据TNT当量法和TNO建议,计算苯蒸气云燃烧爆炸冲击波的影响范围,即确定死亡半径、重伤半径、轻伤半径及财产损失半径,为企业和政府的应急救援提供帮助。     

蒸气云爆炸荷载计算方法比选研究

通过比较计算爆炸荷载的4种常用方法：三硝基甲苯(Trinitrotoluene, TNT)当量法、贝克-斯特洛-唐(Baker-Strehlow-Tang, BST)法、荷兰应用科学研究组织(Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, TNO)多能法和计算流体动力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics, CFD)方法,得出对于石油化工行业易发的蒸气云爆炸,推荐采用TNO多能法或CFD方法的结论。通过构建蒸气云爆炸场景,定量评估TNO多能法或CFD方法在单爆炸场景计算中的准确度和适用性。研究结果显示,在爆炸冲击波近场,CFD方法在计算中考虑了障碍物对爆炸冲击波的遮挡效应,其近场的计算结果更为可信,但是在爆炸冲击波远场通常会高估爆炸冲击波衰减速度。TNO多能法在爆炸冲击波远场的计算中更有优势,但在爆炸冲击波近场的计算结果受使用者主观影响较大。研究成果可为学者科学地选择计算方法,并准确评估爆炸荷载提供参考和依据。     

障碍物排列方式对海洋平台蒸气云爆炸的影响

为了了解障碍物排列方式对海洋平台蒸气云爆炸的影响,基于CFD方法建立蒸气云爆炸计算模型,选用国外MERGE项目的系列爆炸实验进行模型验证,提出用于衡量障碍物排列不均匀度的量化参数,针对海洋平台典型结构形式,分析障碍物排列方式对爆炸强度的影响。研究结果表明:蒸气云爆炸后果对于结构排列方式比较敏感,结构障碍物间隔均匀排列的形式造成的爆炸冲击作用最大;在爆炸发展初期阶段,障碍物阻塞程度对超压产生和发展影响更加显著。最后,基于研究结果,给出在海洋平台油气泄漏危险区将管线沿甲板非均匀排列布置等防控建议,为海洋平台蒸气云爆炸安全防控提供理论指导。     

医药行业蒸馏系统蒸气云爆炸模型的研究

医药行业对药品生产的纯度控制相当重要,蒸馏操作是医药行业普遍运用的工艺手段之一.但由于蒸馏工序所涉及的物料常伴随具有较强燃爆性的危险化学品,且闪点以上操作加剧了物料的燃爆危险,因此医药行业蒸馏系统便成了事故多发的工艺单元之一.通过对某公司蒸馏系统的危险性分析,找出了蒸馏系统存在燃爆危险的主要因素,再进一步采用蒸汽云爆炸事故模拟评价方法,结合拉乌尔定律和道尔顿分压定律对该公司蒸馏系统进行安全评价,确定蒸馏系统二元混合物蒸气云爆炸冲击波损害半径.     

城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故风险评估

为解决城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故的风险定量评估问题,提出一种网格化的风险评估方法。首先,综合分析管道故障的影响因素和管道泄漏蒸气云爆炸的后果损失类型,并计算管道的失效概率和管道某一点泄漏导致蒸气云爆炸后在一个网格内的后果损失货币量化值,两者相乘得到该网格中心点的风险值。然后,利用叠加场的原理,将对网格中心点有影响的管段各点风险值耦合叠加,得出各网格中心点的总风险值,进而绘制出评估区域的风险等值线。最后,应用于实例,绘制出某地区燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸的风险等值线,根据风险可接受准则,评价区域划分为特别、重点和一般防护区,并得到相应的防护区域范围。结果表明：网格化的风险评估方法能够准确评估城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故风险,并使区域风险划分相比传统方法更加精细和形象,有助于提高社会安全防护物资利用率。     

Use of safety barriers in operational safety decision making

Operational personnel in complex hazardous industries are regularly called upon to make decisions that balance the production and safety objectives of their organisation. Regulations and industry standards focus on defining and complying with operating limits of various kinds as the primary method of achieving the right balance. Such limits remove the need in many cases for in-the-moment judgements about safety and production priorities.Focussing solely on the compliance with a pre-defined envelope underestimates the direct contribution to safety from operational managers based on their professional judgement. Research in a chemical plant, a nuclear power station and an air navigation service provider has identified a “line in the sand” approach taken by experienced operating personnel when abnormal situations arise. In developing these situation-specific self-imposed limits, operational managers focus on the status of safety barriers, rather than considering risk from first principles. This approach could form the basis of a new procedure, which lays out the process to be followed in determining how best to proceed (similar to job safety analysis or permit to work). This would acknowledge that such decisions are necessary, assist operational personnel in making better choices and open such decisions to appropriate audit and scrutiny.     

安全控制论原理和应用

以系统论、信息论、控制论为指导思想,结合安全系统工程现场实践,对开发、完善安全控制论的理论体系及其应用等方面研究成果作了简要介绍,包括安全控制论的数学模型,安全系统的控制方式,安全计量及其在安全评价等方面的应用.     

Offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships

PROBLEM: Tragic marine and offshore accidents have caused serious consequences including loss of lives, loss of property, and damage of the environment. METHOD: A proactive, risk-based "goal setting" regime is introduced to the marine and offshore industries to increase the level of safety. DISCUSSION: To maximize marine and offshore safety, risks need to be modeled and safety-based decisions need to be made in a logical and confident way. Risk modeling and decision-making tools need to be developed and applied in a practical environment. SUMMARY: This paper describes both the offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships in detail with particular reference to the design aspects. The current practices and the latest development in safety assessment in both the marine and offshore industries are described. The relationship between the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment is described and discussed. Three examples are used to demonstrate both the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The study of risk criteria in marine and offshore safety assessment is carried out. The recommendations on further work required are given. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This paper gives safety engineers in the marine and offshore industries an overview of the offshore safety case approach and formal ship safety assessment. The significance of moving toward a risk-based "goal setting" regime is given.     

Influence of active mitigation barriers on LNG dispersion

In recent years, particular interest has been direct to the issues of risk associated with the storage, transport and use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) due to the increasing consideration that it is receiving for energy applications. Consequently, a series of experimental and modeling studies to analyze the behavior of LNG have been carried out to collect an archive of evaporation, dispersion and combustion information, and several mathematical models have been developed to represent LNG dispersion in realistic environments and to design mitigation barriers.This work uses Computational Fluid Dynamics codes to model the dispersion of a dense gas in the atmosphere after accidental release. In particular, it will study the dispersion of LNG due to accidental breakages of a pipeline and it will analyze how it is possible to mitigate the dispersing cloud through walls and curtains of water vapor and air, also providing a criterion for the design of such curtains.     

我国安全评价机构现状与分析

安全评价机构作为安全评价工作的主体实施机构和连接政府和企业之间在安全管理工作上的桥梁,其组织管理和服务状况对安全评价工作的发展与完善有非常重要的影响。本文对截止2006年12月初国家安全生产监督管理总局批准的甲级资质安全评价机构和各省局批准并报总局备案的乙级资质安全评价机构的数量分布、业务范围分布等内容进行了统计、分析,并提出了安全评价机构发展的建议。     

System safety assessment using safety entropy

Safety assessment has a primary role in hazardous operations. Most studies on safety assessment focus on risk and accident modeling, in which safety is absent. These top-down methods are highly dependent on the occurred accidents to establish accidental scenarios, which may make the assessment approach lagging behind the evolving modern systems. Moreover, this “special to general” logic is scientifically suspect in safety assessment. There is a call for the development of safety assessment methods in the presence of system safety to complement risk-focused safety analysis. These methods should provide a framework based on a bottom-up approach to examine system safety from the operational perspective. This paper has attempted to provide a potential solution. In particular, a novel concept of safety entropy is proposed to integrate with The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which is used to form the qualitative understanding of a system. A formula consisted of safety entropy, functional conformability, and system complexity has been established to determine the spontaneity of the safety state-changing process. The proposed method is applied to the safety assessment of a propane feed-control system. The results show the applicability of the method. Nevertheless, the model still needs to be further improved to fulfill better support for safety-related decision problems.     

From the traditional concept of safety management to safety integrated with quality

This editorial reviews the evolution of the concepts of safety and quality that have been used in the traditional workplace. The traditional programs of safety are explored showing strengths and weaknesses. The concept of quality management is also viewed. Safety management and quality management principles, stages, and measurement are highlighted. The concepts of quality and safety guarantee are assessed. Total Quality Management concepts are reviewed and applied to safety quality. Total safety management principles are discussed. Finally, an analysis of the relationship between quality and safety from data collected from a company in Spain is presented.     

ACT method for safety training: An approach to improve on-site safety performance

Unsafe behavior is one of the main causes limiting the improvement of on-site safety performance. Safety training is an important means of preventing unsafe behavior. With changes in the scale of operations and employee characteristics, traditional training methods have largely failed to meet the practical demands. Therefore, to improve the effectiveness of safety training, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the current training methods, demonstrates the potential value of accident cases for improving the training effect, and the advantages of 24Model for case analysis in safety training. Subsequently, this paper constructs a systematic training system with Accident-Cause-Training (ACT) as the training relationship chain, which runs the accident cases throughout the training process, 24Model is utilized to trace the unsafe behaviors that lead to accidents from the perspectives of organizational and individual level, and the training content is established according to the analysis results. This paper also conducts a case study to verify the operability of the ACT method, specifically, a training programme for limited space operations at a national-level oil and gas storage and transportation company is designed and implemented. Finally, by comparing the similarities and differences between the ACT method and other training methods from various perspectives, the universality and participation of the ACT method are proved, and the development trend of the ACT method is also discussed. It is believed that the proposed ACT method could enrich the types of safety training methods and provide an effective and scientific tool to enhance the safety performance of field operations.     

石化流程的安全控制模型研究

根据前馈式、反馈式和连续式安全控制的特点建立了石化流程安全控制模型和信号流图,运用Mason公式求出了安全控制模型的解并对其进行了实例分析。认为实现石化流程安全运行的重点在于配备可靠的紧急停车系统,有效控制事故的初发隐患。     

A methodology to model causal relationships on offshore safety assessment focusing on human and organizational factors

INTRODUCTION: Focusing on people and organizations, this paper aims to contribute to offshore safety assessment by proposing a methodology to model causal relationships. METHOD: The methodology is proposed in a general sense that it will be capable of accommodating modeling of multiple risk factors considered in offshore operations and will have the ability to deal with different types of data that may come from different resources. Reason's "Swiss cheese" model is used to form a generic offshore safety assessment framework, and Bayesian Network (BN) is tailored to fit into the framework to construct a causal relationship model. The proposed framework uses a five-level-structure model to address latent failures within the causal sequence of events. The five levels include Root causes level, Trigger events level, Incidents level, Accidents level, and Consequences level. To analyze and model a specified offshore installation safety, a BN model was established following the guideline of the proposed five-level framework. A range of events was specified, and the related prior and conditional probabilities regarding the BN model were assigned based on the inherent characteristics of each event. RESULTS: This paper shows that Reason's "Swiss cheese" model and BN can be jointly used in offshore safety assessment. On the one hand, the five-level conceptual model is enhanced by BNs that are capable of providing graphical demonstration of inter-relationships as well as calculating numerical values of occurrence likelihood for each failure event. Bayesian inference mechanism also makes it possible to monitor how a safety situation changes when information flow travel forwards and backwards within the networks. On the other hand, BN modeling relies heavily on experts' personal experiences and is therefore highly domain specific. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: "Swiss cheese" model is such a theoretic framework that it is based on solid behavioral theory and therefore can be used to provide industry with a roadmap for BN modeling and implications. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit and authorized vessels caused by human and organizational factors (HOFs) during operations is used to illustrate an industrial application of the proposed methodology.