Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Simulation of the dispersion of nuclear contamination using an adaptive Eulerian grid model

Application of an Eulerian model using layered adaptive unstructured grids coupled to a meso-scale meteorological model is presented for modelling the dispersion of nuclear contamination following the accidental release from a single but strong source to the atmosphere. The model automatically places a finer resolution grid, adaptively in time, in regions were high spatial numerical error is expected. The high-resolution grid region follows the movement of the contaminated air over time. Using this method, grid resolutions of the order of 6 km can be achieved in a computationally effective way. The concept is illustrated by the simulation of hypothetical nuclear accidents at the Paks NPP, in Central Hungary. The paper demonstrates that the adaptive model can achieve accuracy comparable to that of a high-resolution Eulerian model using significantly less grid points and computer simulation time.     

Statistical characteristics of radionuclide concentration field around a nuclear power plant

A Markov chain model with two states is used for investigating the space and time structure of the concentration field around an elevated continuous source. The concentration field is computed with a time-dependent Gaussian puff dispersion model run with observed meteorological data as input. Spatial distributions of transition probability, Besson persistence coefficient and order of Markov chain are presented for tritium routinely released from a nuclear power plant located about 100 miles east of Bucharest, Romania.     

Occurrence and behaviour of radionuclides in the Moselle River-Part II: Distribution of radionuclides between aqueous phase and suspended matter

Most of the radionuclides released from nuclear power plants ( NPPs) into rivers are primarily adsorbed onto suspended matter. To describe this nuclide transfer, a model was used which takes the total suspended matter load as solid phase into account. The necessary partition factors of various radionuclides were determined in river water/suspended matter of the Moselle in laboratory investigations. By use of this model, a conservative estimate of the radionuclide concentration of the solid phase could be obtained which proved to be more realistic than the results based on the distribution law.Furthermore, the influence of grain-size on the specific activity of single fractions of a Moselle sediment was demonstrated using ¹³⁷Cs, ¹⁰⁶Ru and ¹⁴⁴Ce from the Chernobyl nuclear accident as tracers. The grain-size pattern is considered to be a main factor which may seriously distort the determination of distribution coefficients and concentration factors that are needed in applying the model based on the distribution law.     

A model for radiological consequences of nuclear power plant operational atmospheric releases

A dynamic dose and risk assessment model is developed to estimate radiological consequences of atmospheric emissions from nuclear power plants. Internal exposure via inhalation and ingestion, external exposure from clouds and radioactivity deposited on the ground are included in the model. The model allows to simulate interregional moves of people and multi-location food supply in the computational domain. Any long-range atmospheric dispersion model which yields radionuclide concentrations in air and on the ground at predetermined time intervals can easily be integrated into the model. The software developed is validated against radionuclide concentrations measured in different environmental media and dose values estimated after the Chernobyl accident. Results obtained using the model compare well with dose estimates and activities measured in foodstuffs and feedstuffs.     

Communicating in Germany about the Fukushima Accident: How Direct Encounter Beat Media Representations

The Fukushima nuclear accident revived the question of whether current practices of technical communication can fulfill the needs of various audiences during a complex global crisis. In that context, the Institute of Nuclear Technology and Energy Systems in Stuttgart organized a public presentation on the technical aspects of the Fukushima nuclear accident. Its success indicates that direct encounter was preferred to media representations of the accident by Stuttgart's citizens. This event demonstrated that public presentation can provide a successful model for technical communication in situations of global sociotechnical crisis.     

Experimental investigation and modelling of tritium washout by precipitation in the area of the nuclear power plant of Paks, Hungary

Tritium occurs in nature in trace amounts, but its concentration is changing due to natural and artificial sources. Studies focusing on natural tritium have to take into account the effect of artificial sources. Also, the impact of tritium is an important issue in environmental protection, e.g. in connection with the emissions from nuclear power plants. The present work focuses on the rain washout of tritium emitted from the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. Rainwater collectors were placed around the plant and after a period of precipitation, rainwater was collected and analysed for tritium content. Samples were analysed using low-level liquid scintillation counting, with some also subject to the more accurate ³He ingrowth method. The results clearly show the trace of the tritium plume emitted from the plant; however, values are only about one order of magnitude higher than environmental background levels. A washout model was devised to estimate the distribution of tritium around the plant. The model gives slightly higher concentrations than those measured in the field, but in general the agreement is satisfactory. The modelled values demonstrate that the effect of the plant on rainwater tritium levels is negligible over a distance of some kilometres.     

POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

A model for the bioaccumulation of (99)Tc in lobsters (Homarus gammarus) from the West Cumbrian coast

A biokinetic model is presented that simulates the uptake and release of (99)Tc by the European lobster (Homarus gammarus). This organism is of significant radioecological interest since lobsters, in contrast to most other organisms, have a high affinity for (99)Tc. The model is designed to represent annually averaged (99)Tc concentrations in lobsters from the Cumbrian coast, where significant levels of (99)Tc have been released under authorisation by the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at BNFL Sellafield.This paper describes the construction of the model, how it was calibrated using data from published literature, and preliminary results indicating that model output agrees well with the available monitoring data. Given that this model successfully combines laboratory and field data, this research could potentially make a significant contribution to the field, as, to date, it has been difficult to predict and explain concentrations of (99)Tc in lobsters.     

京津冀及江浙沪经济圈生态足迹比较分析

利用生态足迹模型分析了1996~2008年京津冀和江浙沪经济圈的人均生态足迹和生态承载力,并将两大经济圈的核心城市做了相应的对比。结果表明：京津冀经济圈的人均生态足迹高于江浙沪经济圈,其中江浙沪经济圈的生态足迹增长速度相对较高;两大经济圈人均生态承载力在1998年均有较大幅度下降,其后基本保持不变;两大经济圈1996~2008年均处于生态赤字状态,且呈现逐年增加态势,经济圈内核心城市人均生态赤字远高于同区域的省份,京津冀经济圈大部分年份人均生态赤字高于江浙沪经济圈;北京、天津、上海3大核心城市的各项生态足迹指标均呈上升趋势,天津市和上海市的人均生态足迹和人均生态赤字两项指标均高于北京市,且历年上海市的人均生态足迹平均要高出天津市14%以上,人均生态赤字高出天津市279%。未来经济圈的发展需要发挥其经济优势,通过技术创新提高资源利用效率,改变生产和生活方式,使地区经济保持可持续发展     

Three-dimensional modelling of the tide-induced dispersion of radionuclides in the sea

A three–dimensional marine dispersion model for radionuclieds has been developed. The model solves the three–dimensional hydrodynamic equations and, simultaneously, the three–dimensional advective–diffusive dispersion equations. Thus the tide–induced dispersion of radionuclides is obtained. The equations are solved using a finite difference explicit scheme using a time step of a few seconds with appropriate boundary conditions. As an example the model has been applied to study the dispersion of ¹³⁷Cs in the Irish Sea which is released from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at Sellafield. Tidal amplitudes and current profiles obtained with the model have been compared with observations in the Irish Sea: both sets of data are in good agreement. Observed and computed ¹³⁷Cs distributions in waters have also been compared. The model gives a good representation of the dispersion of this radionuclide in the Irish Sea.     

Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed on studies published up to March 2015 on the association between nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk. The summary standardized incidence ratio (SIR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model of meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed by study quality. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, covering 36 nuclear power stations in 10 countries. Overall, summary estimates showed no significant increased thyroid cancer incidence or mortality among residents living near nuclear power plants (summary SIR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.87–1.11, summary SMR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.62–1.04). The pooled estimates did not reveal different patterns of risk by gender, exposure definition, or reference population. However, sensitivity analysis by exposure definition showed that living less than 20 km from nuclear power plants was associated with a significant increase in the risk of thyroid cancer in well-designed studies (summary OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.17–2.64). Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well-designed future studies.     

能源消费与环境污染的边限协整分析

能源的使用是导致环境恶化的主要原因之一,所以研究能源消费与不同污染物之间的关系就很有必要。本文以1985-2007年的年度数据为样本,建立了自回归分布滞后—误差修正模型,并运用边限检验对我国的能源消费与环境污染之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:长期来看能源消费总量、煤炭占能源消费总量的比重和水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重对SO2的排放有重要影响,但是对工业烟尘排放量来说只有水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重的影响是显著的;短期来看煤炭占能源消费总量的比重对SO2排放的影响是显著的,能源消费总量和水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重对工业烟尘的排放有显著影响。由于能源消费总量和结构对不同污染物的长期和短期影响存在较大差异,所以在治理时应区别对待。     

Assessment of state-of-the-art models for predicting the remobilisation of radionuclides following the flooding of heavily contaminated areas: the case of Pripyat River floodplain

The performances of models are assessed to predict the wash-off of radionuclides from contaminated flooded areas. This process should be accounted for in the proper management of the aftermath of a nuclear accident. The contamination of the Pripyat River water following the inundation of a floodplain heavily contaminated by (90)Sr and (137)Cs of Chernobyl origin is used as the basis for modelling. The available experimental evidence demonstrated that remobilisation of radiostrontium is an important process implying a significant secondary radioactive load of water flowing over the contaminated floodplain. On the contrary, there is no empirical evidence of a similar behaviour for radiocaesium. In general, state-of-the-art models properly predicted the remobilisation of strontium, whereas they significantly overestimated radiocaesium concentrations in water. The necessary model improvements for a more accurate prediction of radiocaesium contamination levels include a reassessment of the values of the model parameters controlling the remobilisation process.     

低碳经济形势下江西省发展核产业链的潜力和对策

围绕民用核电的发展,核能利用的产业链存在着很大的发展空间。江西省是全国最大的铀矿资源基地,有较齐备的核技术产业体系、国内核学科门类最全的高校、丰富的核电厂址资源等优势,其应加深认识,充分发挥该省铀矿基地优势,通过积极与国家有关涉核单位协作、完善促进核产业链形成的政策措施、加大核领域人才培养力度、加强核技术在农业及农产品加工中的运用、适当发展核供热产业等具体措施培育和发展核产业链,为该省经济增长提供能源支持,实现江西经济的跨越式发展,并能改变该省目前以煤炭为主的能源消费结构,降低碳排放,保护其清洁环境,实现低碳目标     

低碳压力下中国核电产业发展及铀资源保障分析

发展核电是减轻我国当前碳排放压力的现实选择。通过分析世界和中国核电发展的历程、技术水平和规模，结果显示：尽管我国在20世纪70年代就开始发展核电，但是我国核电装机容量和发电总量仅占我国电力总装机容量和发电量的1.1%和1.9%，与发达国家仍有很大差距；在技术水平上，发达国家已经开始研发第三、第四代核反应堆，而我国正在运行和多数拟建核电站都是压水堆技术为主的二代核电技术；在空间分布上，尽管我国很多省份都有需求，但我国核电站主要集中于沿海经济发达、能源短缺地区；从铀资源基础来看，我国仍属于贫铀国。鉴于世界铀资源分布和供给十分不均衡的状况，要保障我国核电产业持续发展不仅要加大国内资源的勘探开发，同时还需加紧拓展海外市场、建立资源储备和发展快堆技术等     

美国内陆核电取水量与水资源保障条件浅析

随着我国核电建设步伐加快,核电规划由滨海逐步向内陆延伸,且主要分布在长江流域,加强与完善核电水资源管理体系势在必行。以美国内陆核电站为研究对象,针对核电建设对水资源量的需求,分别对内陆核电站历史取水量情况和电站冷却水水源地水资源保障条件两个方面进行了探讨。数据计算结果显示内陆核电站在施工建设期的取水量较小,正常运行期的取水量主要与核电机组冷却方式有关,直流冷却方式取水量远大于循环冷却方式,且三代核电技术与二代相差不大;另一方面,美国内陆核电站冷却水水源地的水文特征计算结果对我国的内陆核电选址建设和低放废液储存罐容量设计可以起到参考作用