Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations in the Athens Basin

In the work ozone data from the Liossion monitoring station of the Athens/PERPA network are analysed. Data cover the months May to September for the period 1987–93. Four statistical models, three multiple regression and one ARIMA (0,1,2), for the prediction of the daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations are developed. All models together, with a persistence forecast, are evaluated and compared with the 1993's data, not used in the models development. Validation statistics were used to assess the relative accuracy of models. Analysis, concerning the models' ability to forecast real ozone episodes, was also carried out. Two of the three regression models provide the most accurate forecasts. The ARIMA model had the worst performance, even lower than the persistence one. The forecast skill of a bivariate wind speed and persistence based regression model for ozone episode days was found to be quite satisfactory, with a detection rate of 73% and 60% for O3 >180 g m-3 and O3 >200 g m-3, respectively.     

Air pollution in Athens basin and health risk assessment

An inventory of air pollution sources within the Athens basin is carried out for the years 1989, 1992 and 1998 and the results areinputted in a climatological model for predicting ambient concentrations. Despite of the significant growth in the numberof road vehicles and the deteriorating traffic, the emissions andambient concentrations of fine particulates, CO, NO_x and VOCappear to remain reasonably constant over for the period 1989 to 1998, while these of SO₂ and Pb are reduced, mainly due to the renewal of vehicle fleet, the use of catalytic technologies and the improved quality of the used fuel. The results further indicate that for CO, NO_x and VOC the major source is road traffic, while for PM_2.5 and SO₂ both space heating andtraffic share responsibility. The air pollutant concentrations monitored by the network of 11 stations are reviewed and statistics related to air quality guidelines are presented. As fine particulate levels are not monitored, approximate PM_2.5and PM₁₀ concentrations are derived from black smoke ones on basis of experimentally determined conversion factors. The computed and monitored air pollution levels are compared and found in reasonable agreement. The results of the above analysisshow that the levels of all `classical' pollutants, with the exception of SO₂ and Pb, exceed significantly the WHO guidelines and are thus expected to exert a significant healthimpact. The latter could be quantified in relation to the PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ levels on the basis of risk assessment information developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The results show that the existing levels of fine particle concentrations in Athens increase significantly the mortality and morbidity, and reduce the average longevity of the entirepopulation from 1.3 to 1.7 years.     

Calculating losses of crops in Denmark caused by high ozone levels

In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects on agriculture crops and the consequent economic implications for policy have been studied for more than a decade. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth rates and consequently yields are dramatically reduced. Quantifying the effects has formed a key factor in policymaking. Based on the widely held view that AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of 40 ppb) is a good indicator of ozone-induced damage, the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) was used to compute reduced agriculture yields on a 50 km×50 km grid over Europe. In one set of scenarios, a ten year meteorological time series was combined with realistic emission inventories. In another, various idealized emission reduction scenarios are applied to the same meteorological time series. The results show substantial inter-annual variability in economic losses, due in most part to meteorological conditions which varied much more substantially than the emissions during the same period. It is further shown that, taking all uncertainties into account, estimates of ozone-induced economic losses require that a long meteorological record is included in the analysis, for statistical significance to be improved to acceptable levels for use in policy analysis. In this study, calculations were made for Europe as a whole, though this paper presents results relevant for Denmark.     

Prediction of extreme ozone levels in Barcelona, Spain

Barcelona is one of the most polluted cities in Western Europe, although our levels of air pollution are within the World Health Organisation air quality guidelines. However, high concentrations of air pollution have not been studied yet. Ground ozone levels is a topic of considerable environmental concern, since excessive level of ozone are taken as indicative of high pollution. In terms of the air quality guidelines ozone levels higher than 100 µg m^–3 can start to be health-hazards for human health. Our objective is to report a detailed analysis of ozone data exceeding the thresholds established by the air quality guidelines. Data analysed were collected in two measurement stations in Barcelona, for the reference period 1991–1996. Applying statistical techniques commonly used in the analysis of extreme values, mainly the Peak Over Threshold method was used for in this study. The analysis reveal that the ozone threshold values for the protection of human health has exceeded many times in both stations. The estimated return values for 3, 10, and 40 yr exceed the threshold value for information to the public of almost once in both stations, also it seems to be unlikely that the threshold value for warning to the public will be exceeded in 40 yr.     

Human health damage caused by particulate matter PM10 and ozone in urban environments: the case of Athens, Greece

Studies conducted over the past decades have provided substantial evidence that both the long- and the short-term exposures to ozone and particulate matter are responsible for mortality and cardiopulmonary morbidity. This paper examines the relationship between exposure to ambient concentrations of ozone (O₃) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM₁₀) and public health and provides the quantification of the burden of disease from PM₁₀ and O₃-related mortality and morbidity through a Life Cycle Impact Assessment focused on the greater area of Athens, Greece. Thus, characterizations factors (CFs) for human health damage are calculated in 17 sites in Athens, in terms of the annual marginal change in the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to a marginal increase in the ambient concentrations. It is found that the PM₁₀ intake factors range between 1.25?×?10^?6 and 2.78?×?10^?6, suggesting that 1.25–2.78 μg of PM₁₀ are inhaled by the Athenian population per kg of PM₁₀ in the urban atmosphere. Mortality due to chronic exposure to PM₁₀ has a dominant contribution to years of life lost with values ranging between 6.2?×?10^?5 and 1.1?×?10^?4. On the other hand, the mortality caused by short-term exposure to O₃ is weaker with the CFs ranging between 1.58?×?10^?7?years of life lost in the urban/traffic areas and 4.71?×?10^?7?years in the suburbs. Finally, it is found that 9,000 DALYs are lost on average in Athens, corresponding to 0.0018 DALYs per person. This is equal to 0.135 DALYs per person over a lifetime of approximately 75 years, assuming constant emission rates for the whole period.     

Monitoring and biomonitoring of surface ozone in Florence, Italy

An ambient air study was conducted inthe city of Florence, Italy, in the summer 1996.Tropospheric ozone was continuously monitored withautomatic analyzers in three stations, two located inthe urban area and one in the hilly surroundings(Settignano). A biomonitoring campaign based on thetobacco cv. Bel-W3 plants was performed in the samearea. The highest values were constantly recorded inthe Settignano station. The highest 1-hour meanrecorded was 197 nl/l; the accumulated exposure overa threshold of 40 nl/l (AOT40) was well above thecritical levels standards for protection of thevegetation. A consistent temporal variation wasobserved and July proved to be the month with thehighest ozone levels. Cumulative frequencydistribution of ozone maximum daily concentrationsexhibited a good fitting to log-normality. No`week-end effect was observed. Biomonitoring datawere in good agreement with chemico-physical ones.     

Nine-year trend of air pollution by CO in Athens,Greece

Air quality data obtained by the Athens air pollution monitoring system from the nine-year period started in 1986 were analysed to determine time variations and the effect of various meteorological parameters on air quality by CO. From the ten monitoring stations measuring CO, the station located in a street with high traffic was selected since this site had the longest time record and presented the highest values of CO during the period examined. The time variations show that higher concentrations of CO were measured during the winter months, on working days and between 09.00 and 23.00 hours. The long-term trend shows a definite decline of CO concentrations after 1990 resulting from the substitution of gasoline-powered vehicles with vehicles equipped with three-way catalysts. Finally, it was found that during days with calm or S-SW blowing light winds the CO concentrations presented their higher values.     

Grey Box and Component Models to Forecast Ozone Episodes: A Comparison Study

For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas (two continental and one mediterranean) are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time horizon of forecast. The component model is more 'stiff' that results in a higher forecast-error variance and poorer adaption in detail. The forecast horizon, however, could be enlarged with this model. The accuracy of predicting threshold exceedance is similar for both models. This can be understood from the assumption of a cyclical time development of ozone that was made for both models.     

Measurements of Ozone Concentrations in Zagreb

Ozone concentrations were measured in Zagreb at four sites from May 1999 to April 2001 in order to categorize the air quality with respect to ozone. In the summer of 2000, the ozone measurements were also extended to four sites in the suburbs of Zagreb. Methods of active and passive sampling with nitrite ion as a reagent were used. In the northern part of the town ozone was analyzed by an automatic device. Automatic device measurements in the years 1999 and 2000 showed that hourly averages of ozone concentrations did not exceed the Croatian recommended value of the 98th percentile (180 g m^–3). Over the two-year period, 24-h averages occasionally exceed 110 g m^–3 in city center and in the northern part of the town. Regardless of these isolated examples, ozone was well within acceptable concentrations. Ozone concentrations measured in summer 2000 were higher in the suburbs of Zagreb than in the city. The 98th percentile values higher than 110 g m^–3 were recorded at three sites.     

Sampling and Analysis of Volatile Organic Compounds Emitted from Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Powered Motor Vehicles

Forecasts of air quality provide information to the general public during periods with high levels of air pollution. Criteria for testing the validity and reliability of forecast systems are discussed. As the objectives of a forecast may widely differ (providing information to the public or triggering short-term emission reduction measures) there is not a single evaluation procedure. It is recommended to use a set of performance indicators. The strong year-to-year variability in occurrence of smog episodes makes it necessarily to use several years of data in the evaluation.     

Regional assessment of ozone sensitive tree species using bioindicator plants

Tropospheric ozone occurs at phytotoxic levels in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Quantifying possible regional-scale impacts of ambient ozone onforest tree species is difficult and is confounded by other factors, such as moisture and light, which influence the uptake of ozone by plants. Biomonitoring provides an approach to document direct foliar injury irrespective of direct measure ofozone uptake. We used bioindicator and field plot data from theUSDA Forest Service to identify tree species likely to exhibit regional-scale ozone impacts. Approximately 24% of sampled sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), 15% of sampled loblollypine (Pinus taeda), and 12% of sampled black cherry (Prunus serotina) trees were in the highest risk category. Sweetgum and loblolly pine trees were at risk on the coastal plain of Maryland, Virginia and Delaware. Black cherry trees were at riskon the Allegheny Plateau (Pennsylvania), in the Allegheny Mountains (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Maryland) as well ascoastal plain areas of Maryland and Virginia. Our findings indicate a need for more in-depth study of actual impacts on growth and reproduction of these three species.     

A national ozone biomonitoring program--results from field surveys of ozone sensitive plants in northeastern forests (1994-2000)

Ozone biomonitoring is a detection and monitoring techniquethat involves documenting ozone-induced visible injury toknown ozone-sensitive species under conditions of ambientexposure. The USDA Forest Service administers a long-term,nationwide ozone biomonitoring program to address public andscientific concerns about ozone impacts on forest health. Asystematic grid is used as the basis for biomonitoring sitelocations. At each site, trained field crews evaluate amaximum of thirty plants of up to six species and record the amount and severity of leaf-injury on individualplants. Injury from ozone was found more often on biomonitoring sites in the eastern Unites States than in theinterior or west-coast areas. Further results from thenortheast reveal that in any year, there is a higherpercentage of ozone-injured plants with more severe symptomsin areas with relatively high ozone concentrations than inareas with relatively low ozone. In very dry years (e.g.,1999) the percentage of injured plants and injury severityestimates are both sharply reduced even though ambient ozoneexposures are high. These findings demonstrate thatbiomonitoring data provide meaningful evidence of when highozone concentrations during the growing season have biologicalsignificance. Any assessment of ozone stress in the forestenvironment must include both biomonitoring (i.e., plantresponse) and air quality data to be complete.     

Sediment and Suspended Matter Lead Contamination in the Gulf of Kavala, Greece

Sediment and suspended particulate matter samples from 24 stations in the Gulf of Kavala have been examined for lead contamination. Grain size analysis and organic matter content were also performed. Total – anthropogenic sediment lead concentrations and enrichment factors at stations close to harbors and chemical industries were found higher (up to 209–135μg/g and 4.12 respectively), in relation to concentrations from the rest of the coastal zone. In the above areas, increased suspended particulate lead in the bottom of the water column was also recorded (up to 109μg/g). Total sediment lead concentrations composed of high natural Pb background increased with decreasing grain size, suggesting their association with the fine fractions of the sediments (31.1–66.0% mud presence) and the organic matter content (6–9% higher values). Overall, higher total lead concentrations in the sediments, determined by this work, appear to be significantly different from those reported for the Gulf of Kavala in previous studies and similar to those detected in other highly contaminated eastern Mediterranean coastal areas.     

Differences between weekend and weekday ozone levels over rural and urban sites in Southern Italy

Air quality data from a network of 11 monitoring stations in the Apulia region of southern Italy during the summer of 2005 reveal a high frequency of ozone law limit violations. Since ozone is a secondary pollutant, air quality control strategies aimed at reducing ozone concentration are not immediate. Herein, we analyse weekly changes in concentration levels of ozone (O(3)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and evaluate how the differences in primary emissions cause changes in the production of ozone. The comparison between weekend and weekday levels of O(3) and its precursors are direct evidence for the existence of the "ozone weekend effect." This effect was observed at all stations with a considerable variation in the overall ozone magnitude, including both traffic stations and non-traffic stations. Data from VOC measurements at traffic stations primarily indicated elevated levels of benzene, toluene, and xylenes (BTX); all of these substances showed an overall decrease over the weekend. A single station indicated levels of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and PM10, both of which did not demonstrate any weekly cycle. Analysis of weekly and diurnal cycles of O(3), NO(x), CO, NMHC, and PM10 indicates that higher weekend ozone levels result from a reduction in the emission of nitrogen oxides on weekends in VOC-sensitive regimes. This indicates that a reduction in VOC and NO(x) levels would be more effective than NO(x) reduction alone. Our results underscore the need for improved and more efficient VOC measurements.     

Monitoring Air Quality in Mountains: Designing an Effective Network

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships ( 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.     

Sediment pollution by heavy metals in the Strymonikos and Ierissos Gulfs,North Aegean Sea,Greece

Surface sediment samples from Strymonikos and Ierissos Gulfs wereanalyzed for Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr and Ni. The results showed that the sediment of Ierissos Gulf is more polluted with Cu, Pb, and Zn ascompared to that of Strymonikos Gulf. The benthal area located off the load-out facility of the mining operations in the town of Stratoni, in Ierissos Gulf is established as the most pollutedregion. The distribution of Cr and Ni in both gulfs indicates thenatural origin of these metals with the weathering of Strymon River and of other smaller rivers rocks being responsible for their enrichment.     

Extreme Nitrogen Oxide and Ozone Concentrations in Athens Atmosphere in Relation to Meteorological Conditions

In the present study, we investigate the variation of NO _x (NO + NO₂) and O₃ concentrations and the relation between the extreme events (episodes) of NO _x and O₃ concentrations and the relevant meteorological conditions in the urban atmosphere of the Athens basin. Hourly data of NO, NO₂ and O₃ concentrations from 10 representative monitoring sites located in the Athens basin were used, covering the 10-year time period from 1994 to 2003. The results of our analysis show that the concentrations of air pollutants differ significantly from one monitoring site to another, due to the location and proximity of each station to the emission sources. For each site, there are also significant differences in NO _x and O₃ concentrations from day to day, as well as from month to month and/or from season to season. The annual and seasonal variations show higher NO values in winter and lower in summer. On the contrary, NO₂ and O₃ values are higher in summer (photochemical production of O₃) and lower in winter. These differences are attributed, to a large extent, to the prevailing synoptic and meteorological conditions, the most important between them being the wind direction and speed as well as the atmospheric pressure. Our analysis of the identified 179 extreme NO _x air pollution events shows that most of them took place under anticyclonic conditions, associated with calm or weak winds (speed <2.5 ms⁻¹) of mostly southern to southwestern directions, as well as with low air temperatures and intense stable surface atmospheric conditions. There exists a significant decreasing tendency in NO _x air pollution episodic events over the 10-year study period, resulting in very few to none events in the period from 2000 to 2003. As far as it concerns the extreme O₃ concentrations, 34 air pollution events were identified, occurring under high air temperatures, variable weak winds and intense solar irradiation. The trends of O₃ concentrations are stronger in suburban sites than in urban ones.     

Simulation of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration patterns for a 2010 traffic scenario in Bologna,Italy

Three state of the art traffic–emission–dispersion models dealing with particulate matter have been tested and validated over the Bologna metropolitan area with 2001 data and a future scenario has been developed in order to estimate expected PM concentrations in 2010. The modelling system is composed by a traffic model (VISUM) evaluating vehicle fluxes as a function of mobility demand and road network in the area, an emission model (Trefic) estimating pollutants emitted in atmosphere as a function of vehicle fluxes amount and composition and of environmental conditions and a dispersion model (ADMS) evaluating PM concentrations on the area, given the meteorological variables. The three models compose a cascade sequence and results of the previous one feed the next one. PM concentrations computed by the model suite for the town of Bologna, in northern Italy, for the reference period (January 2001) have been compared with air quality stations measurements suggesting the modelling system being especially suitable for evaluating traffic induced PM. Qualitative and quantitative changes in the circulating vehicle fleet have been supposed in order to obtain a realistic scenario for year 2010. Forecasted concentrations have been then compared with limits fixed by current EU legislation for particulate matter.     

Comparison of Numerical Street Dispersion Models with Results from Wind Tunnel and Field Measurements

Numerical dispersion models developed and validated in different European countries were applied to data sets from wind tunnel and field measurements. The comparison includes the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the microscale flow and dispersion model MISKAM. The latter is recommended for application in built-up areas in the draft of the new German guideline VDI 3782/8. In a first step the models were applied to simplified street configurations. Different parameters as length and height of adjacent buildings and the angle of the incoming flow were varied. The results were compared to recent wind tunnel measurements. In a second step the models were applied to two extensively investigated field data sets from Jagtvej, Copenhagen and G ttinger Straße, Hannover. Intensified and more transparent and accessible validation procedures would be helpful for the thorough user.     

Chemical composition of the NH3-HNO3-H2SO4-NaCl system in the atmosphere of Athens,Greece

This paper presents a procedure for estimating the distribution of ionic material in the NH₃-HNO₃-H₂SO₄-NaCl system and applies this procedure in a particular case. The data used were measurements of HNO₃, NH₃, NO ₃ ^– , SO ₄ ^– , NH ₄ ⁺ Cl^– and Na⁺ performed during February 1989 – February 1990 in a central Athens street with high traffic density. According to the procedure, ions combine in the following manner: Na⁺ combines preferentially with SO ₄ ^– , then with NO ₃ ^– , followed by NH ₄ ⁺ with the remaining SO ₄ ^– and then with the remaining NO ₃ ^– to form bisulphates, sulphates and nitrates. The combination procedure showed that the main constituents of the NH₃-HNO₃-H₂SO₄-NaCl system are primarily (NH₄)₂SO₄ and, to a lesser extent, NH₄NO₃ and NH₄HSO₄, with mean and maximum concentrations, during morning hours, (NH₄)₂SO₄: 14.5 (max 46.8), NH₄NO₃: 2.97 (max 23) and NH₄HSO₄: 1.78 (max 40.6) µg m^–3. Lower concentations of Na₂SO₄, NaHSO₄, NaNO₃ and NH₄Cl and very low concentrations of H₂SO₄ are also present, depending on the availability of NaCl. It became apparent from the ionic distribution that there is sufficient NH₃ to neutralize the H₂SO₄ and HNO₃. It was also shown that a significant fraction of the HNO₃, especially on days with high pollution, occurs as aqueous NO ₃ ^– . A number of empirical equations have been proposed, which enable the approximate estimation of the constituents of the NH₃-HNO₃-H₂SO₄-NaCl system from air pollution monitoring data and meteorological parameters.