低碳经济与农业发展思考

大气中碳浓度的升高是导致全球气候变化的主要原因.以低能耗、低排放、低污染为特征的低碳经济是目前人类应对全球气候变化,减缓温室气体排放的根本出路.农业生产与全球气候变化息息相关,农业是温室气体的第二大重要来源,如何减少农业温室气体排放量并探寻减排方法已经成为当务之急.从低碳经济这一热点问题谈起,论述了农业生产与全球气候变化的关系,以及当前农业面临的问题和挑战,提出了发展低碳农业的对策以及具体措施,旨在为呼应低碳经济,应对全球气候变化提供科学决策,促进现代农业由高碳经济向低碳经济转型,实现农业的可持续发展.     

Ecology of Conus on eastern Indian Ocean fringing reefs: Diversity of species and resource utilization

The most diverse assemblages of the genus Conus known occur on fringing coral reefs in Thailand and Indonesia. As many as 27 congeneric species of these gastropods inhabit a single reef; in all, we examined 1,350 individuals of 48 species. Several attributes of the populations we observed conform to expectations of a model of ecological characteristics of bench and reef Conus proposed by Kohn (1971a). Number of species (S) averaged 15, and species diversity (H″) averaged 2.3 in the most heterogeneous habitat type — topographically complex, subtidal reef platforms (Type III habitat). Both species richness and evenness of distribution of individuals among species contribute strongly to H″. Fewer congeners and greater numerical dominance by single species characterize more homogeneous habitats. On subtidal reef platforms with large areas of sand substrate and less coral limestone (Type I–III habitat), mean values were S=10, and H″=1.6. In the one intensively studied, truncated reef-limestone platform (Type II–III intermediate habitat), S=13 and H″=1.4. Summed population density of all Conus species in Type III and I–III habitats is similar (0.02 to 0.05 individuals /m²) and comparable to estimates from similar habitats elsewhere in the Indo-West Pacific region. Mean density (0.7/m²) and other population attributes in Type II–III habitat more closely resemble those of Type II than Type III habitats in general. We combined analysis of species diversity and other attributes of assemblages in habitats of different environmental complexity with analysis of microhabitat and food-resource utilization, in order to demonstrate the extent to which specialization on different resources occurs in assemblages differing in diversity and habitat type. In the habitats studied, co-occurring species of Conus specialized to a greater extent on different prey species than on different microhabitat patches, but degree of microhabitat specialization was greater than in similarly complex habitats with assemblages of lower diversity elsewhere in the Indo-West Pacific region. While most Conus species preyed primarily on a different species or higher taxon of polychaetes, diets are not more specialized or dissimilar than in similar habitats elsewhere. Degree of specialization on different prey is not correlated with Conus species diversity in the different types of habitats studied. The data lead to the conclusion that differential predation is as important — and differential microhabitat utilization is more important — in permitting coexistence of potentially competing congeners, compared with conditions in habitats of comparable heterogeneity that support fewer congeners farther from the center of the Indo-West Pacific region. Pairwise comparisons of congeners indicate that many species pairs have low or no overlap in both microhabitat and food utilization. Members of species pairs with high overlap in microhabitat utilization typically eat different prey organisms, and those with similar diets typically occupy different habitats or microhabitats. This applies to molluscivorous as well as vermivorous species. Information on the diets of 11 species is reported here for the first time. Of 48 Indo-West Pacific Conus species whose food is now known, 35 prey on polychaetes, 2 on enteropneusts, 6 on gastropods, and 5 on fishes. Vermivorous Conus prey on relatively few of the polychaete species present in the environments. Species eaten represent only 12% of a total estimated polychaete population density of 27,000 individuals /m². Certain very abundant polychaetes may be protected from predation by Conus by their small size, others by their long tubes. Two new aspects of size-selective predation by Conus are reported: (1) Although comparisons of predation rate with prey standing-crop suggest that food is plentiful, selective predation on the largest prey individuals present suggests that only small proportions of prey-species populations may have large enough body size to repay foraging effort by the Conus present; (2) composition of the diet changes qualitatively with increase in body size in several vermivorous Conus species; shifting by larger individuals to larger prey species could be documented in C. ebraeus.     

基于低碳经济的能源资源协调发展的研究

能源是经济发展的命脉。经济和能源的协调发展是社会发展的原动力。经济发展离开能源的基础,那将是无源之水,无本之木。所以,经济和能源应该协调发展,社会才能稳步前进。发展低碳经济是利用先进的技术和有效的管理方法与手段,保护资源,保护环境,实现社会和经济的可持续化发展的必由之路;是我国经济发展方式转型,产业结构调整过程中必须完成的紧迫任务之一。世界产业结构的变动,必然影响到开放度不断加大的我国,正是在这样的背景下,我国的煤炭及其他矿产品的出口不断增长。在我国融人经济全球化的过程中,要注意在接受国际产业结构调整对我国经济发展有利影响的同时,要用低碳经济的发展战略模式,避免消极影响危及我国经济的长期、根本利益。应该在这个大前提下,对我国自然资源进行有计划的开发和提高自然资源的有效利用。实现可持续发展已经成为中国社会经济发展的一个重要基本方针,可持续发展不仅要强调对环境的保护,而且应包括如何解决在人口已经高度密集,人均资源相对匮乏,自然生态环境已经十分脆弱的条件下,如何实现经济的长期高速发展,同时又要保护环境的这样一个史无前例的社会实践问题。低碳经济和能源资源的协调发展就成了解决这一问题的必经之路。能源既是重要的必不可少的经济发展和社会生活的物质前提,又是现实的重要污染来源,解决好我国的能源可持续发展战略问题,是实现我国社会经济可持续发展的重要环节。     

Integration of biogas systems into a carbon zero and hydrogen economy: a review

Environmental Chemistry Letters - The Ukraine conflict has put critical pressure on gas supplies and increased the price of fertilisers. As a consequence, biogas has gained remarkable attention as...     

基于生物质能的芒属（Miscanthus）植物碳动态和收支研究进展

生物质能（Biomass energy）是最为广泛的可再生能源,其中多年生芒属C4植物（Miscanthus）由于具有巨大碳固定能力而成为潜力巨大的生物质能植物。中国是芒属植物芒草起源中心,但相对于欧洲国家应对能源危机和温室效应而采取的芒草研究与应用来说,仍处于起步阶段。我国长期以来传统的草地利用模式,决定了在南方草地的研究显著少于北方,近年来芒草在华南地区的运用研究集中于生态修复,对草本植物群落基于生态系统水平的 CO2气体交换能力的研究仍然相当缺乏,在二氧化碳浓度持续增长及全球变暖背景下,生物质能植物及其碳汇功能的相关研究尤显重要。我国南方近6700万hm2退化丘陵草坡急待恢复或处于恢复中,草坡地芒属植物符合生物质能植物标准,施肥少,害虫少,农药输入少,能够有效地利用光、水等自然资源。考虑到C4植物具有比C3植物更强的光合作用能力,高光能利用率C4芒属植物的碳固定能力及能源潜力值得重视,但缺乏科学的碳动态和碳收支评估。综述了国内外芒草生物量特征与生物质能潜力研究现状,重点论述芒属植物生态系统水平的碳动态和收支能力研究,探讨了系统水平更客观评估芒属碳源汇（Carbon sequestration）功能的方法,基于生物量过程的研究结果及华南地区草坡研究历史和现状,为草坡地生物质能的合理开发利用提出了相关对策,强调在我国南方开发和利用芒属植物资源具有重要能源价值和经济、环境效益。     

Transversal profiles of carbon assimilation in the fronds of three Laminaria species

The brown macroalgae Laminaria digitata (Huds.) Lamour., L. hyperborea (Gunn.) Foslie, and L. saccharina (L.) Lamour. (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) have been investigated for carbon assimilation and assimilate biosynthesis in different tissues (meristoderm, cortex, medulla) of stipes and blades. Carboxylation via ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (EC 4.1.1.39) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (EC 4.1.32) follows a transversal gradient from the outer to the inner tissues with maximum activity of enzymatic CO₂ fixation in the meristoderm. Such transversal profiles are also recorded for photosynthetic and dark carbon assimilation as well as for kinetics of assimilate ¹⁴C-labelling in isolated tissues. Differential chemical constitution of the blade and stipe tissues examined and results from assimilate biosynthesis are discussed with regard to a transversal translocation of photosynthates from meristodermal to cortical and medullar cells.     

Timing of septal formation in two species of Nautilus based on radiometric and aquarium data

Growth rates of four Nautilus scrobiculatus Lightfoot and three N. pompilius Linnaeus captured in Papua New Guinea in 1985 were measured using a chronology based on the naturally occurring radionuclides ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po. The age of the las septum in mature specimens of both species was more than one year, whereas the time of septal formation in a submature specimen of N. pompilius was ca 180 d. The ²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb method was also used to determine the growth rates of four immature N. pompilius captured in the Philippines in 1983 before and after introduction into an aquarium. Introduction into the aquarium was marked by a dramatic decrease in the activity of ²¹⁰Pb of the septa, the formation of a black line on the exterior of the shell, and a reduction in the spacing of adjacent septa in two specimens. Based on the number of septa formed in the aquarium, the average time of septal formation ranged from 50 to 80 d. These estimates were consistent with those calculated from the ²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb activity ratios of the septa that formed in the aquarium, thus providing a check on the radiometric method. The average time of septal formation just prior to introduction into the aquarium appears, within the uncertainty of the radioactive measurements, to have been similar to that in the aquarium, indicating no dramatic alteration in the growth rate of these specimens.     

Study of county-level low-carbon standards in China based on carbon emissions per capita

ABSTRACT

Low-carbon development is an essential measure to combat climate change, and the establishment of low-carbon standards is an important means to achieve low-carbon development. Due to the differences in size and development level among counties of China, the applicability and fairness of county-level low-carbon standards are very important in this country. This study analyzed the trends of county-level carbon emissions in China, defined the peak value of carbon emissions per capita, summarized the characteristics of existing low-carbon standards, and proposed a fair county-level low-carbon standard based on carbon emissions per capita. The results of our analysis suggest that, under the constraints of carbon emissions reduction policies, China’s carbon emissions per capita will tend towards a stable range. Additionally, by referring to predictions results of the peak value of China’s carbon emissions per capita, it was determined that, in low-carbon development targets, China’s county-level carbon emissions per capita should be set within the range of 2–4 tons. Besides setting low-carbon standards, the Chinese government and private enterprises should develop low-carbon technologies as soon as possible and innovate management models to achieve the win–win situation of simultaneous economic growth and carbon emissions reduction.     

Discrimination among and variation within species of Pseudocalanus based on the GPI locus

Patterns of allozyme variation at the GPI (glucose phosphate isomerase) locus showed that the recently described or clarified Pseudocalanus newmani, P. acuspes, P. moultoni and P. minutus are genetically isolated from each other even though morphologically they are very similar, and in places sympatric. This genetic isolation was inferred from the presence of private alleles in some species, and from differences in their degrees of observed heterozygosity and in the observed frequencies of shared alleles in all the species examined. Temporal variations were not detected in P. newmani, P. acuspes and P. minutus. Populations of P. newmani and P. moultoni from the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America have apparently diverged. No such divergence was detected among samples of P. acuspes from Nova Scotia, the Canadian Arctic and the Baltic sea, and of P. minutus from Nova Scotia and Hudson Bay. P. elongatus collected in the English Channel differed from P. acuspes from the Baltic Sea.     

Prediction of potential areas of species distributions based on presence-only data

We introduce a methodology to infer zones of high potential for the habitat of a species, useful for management of biodiversity, conservation, biogeography, ecology, or sustainable use. Inference is based on a set of sites where the presence of the species has been reported. Each site is associated with covariate values, measured on discrete scales. We compute the predictive probability that the species is present at each node of a regular grid. Possible spatial bias for sites of presence is accounted for. Since the resulting posterior distribution does not have a closed form, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is implemented. However, we also describe an approximation to the posterior distribution, which avoids MCMC. Relevant features of the approach are that specific notions of data acquisition such as sampling intensity and detectability are accounted for, and that available a priori information regarding areas of distribution of the species is incorporated in a clear-cut way. These concepts, arising in the presence-only context, are not addressed in alternative methods. We also consider an uncertainty map, which measures the variability for the predictive probability at each node on the grid. A simulation study is carried out to test and compare our approach with other standard methods. Two case studies are also presented.     

Photosynthetic utilisation of carbon and light by two tropical seagrass species as measured in situ

In situ measurements of seagrass photosynthesis in relation to inorganic carbon (Ci) availability, increased pH and an inhibitor of extracellular carbonic anhydrase were made using an underwater pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometer. By combining the instrument with a specially designed Perspex chamber, we were able to alter the water surrounding a leaf without removing it from the growing plant. Responses to Ci within the chamber showed that subtidal plants of the seagrasses Cymodocea serrulata and Halophila ovalis had photosynthetic rates that were limited by the ambient Ci concentration depending on the irradiance that was available during short-term photosynthesis–irradiance trials. Relative electron transport rates (RETRs) at light saturation (up to 500 μ mol photons m⁻² s⁻¹) increased by 66–100% when the Ci concentration was increased from ca. 2.2 to 6.2 mM. On the other hand, intertidal plants of the same species exhibited a much lesser limitation of photosynthesis by Ci at any irradiance (up to 1500 μ mol photons m⁻² s⁻¹). Both species were able to use HCO⁻ ₃ efficiently, and there was stronger evidence for direct uptake of HCO⁻ ₃ rather than extracellular dehydration of HCO⁻ ₃ to CO₂ prior to Ci uptake. Subtidally, H. ovalis and C. serrulata grew to 10 and 12 m, respectively, where ambient irradiances were approximately 16 and 11% of those at the surface. Maximum RETRs (at light saturation) were lower for these deep-growing plants than for the intertidally growing ones. For both species, the onset of light saturation of photosynthesis (E _k) occurred at approximately 100 μ mol photons m⁻² s⁻¹ for the deep water populations, which was four and two times lower than for the shallow populations of C. serrulata and H. ovalis, respectively. This, and the differences in maximal photosynthetic rates (RETR _max), reflects an acclimation of the deep-growing populations to the lower light environment. The results presented here show that photosynthesis, as measured in situ, was limited by the availability of Ci for the deeper growing plants in Zanzibar, while the intertidally growing plants photosynthesised at close to Ci saturation. The latter result is contrary to previous conclusions regarding Ci limitations for these intertidal plants, and, in general, our findings highlight the need for performing similar experiments in situ rather than under laboratory conditions. Received: 4 April 2000 / Accepted: 31 August 2000     

西藏高寒草原生态系统表层土壤活性有机碳梯度分布及其与气候因子的关系

基于西藏高寒草原生态系统以水分为主要驱动力的东西样带和以温度为主要驱动力的南北样带内采集土样的实测数据,分析了表层(0～20 cm)土壤活性有机碳的分布特征及其与气候因子之间的关系.结果表明,在280°46'-31°40'N的南北样带内,表层土壤活性有机碳含量随着纬度的增加而增加,当纬度增加到一定程度后,则随着纬度的增加而减少,呈现出南北低、中间高的分布特征.在80°02'-91°50'E的东西样带内,表层土壤活性有机碳含量随着经度的增加而增加,当经度增加到一定程度后,则随着经度的增加而减少,呈现出东西低、中间高的分布特征.影响南北样带内表层土壤活性有机碳分布的关键气候因子是年均气温,而影响东西样带内表层土壤活性有机碳分布的关键气候因子则是年均降水量.     

Effect of water stress on carbon isotope discrimination and its relationship with transpiration efficiency and specific leaf area in Cenchrus species

Carbon isotope discrimination (CID) has been proposed in estimating transpiration efficiency (TE) in plants indirectly To identify variations for TE and specific leaf area (SLA) and their association with CID, a glasshouse experiment was conducted using six prominent species of Cenchrus. A significant increase in TE (3.50 to 3.87 g kg(-1)) and decrease in SLA (219.50 to 207.99 cm2 g(-1)) and CID (13.72 to 13.23% per hundred) was observed from well watered to stress condition. Results indicated a direct relationship of SLA with CID (r = 0.511* and 0.544*) and inverse relationship between TE and CID (r = -0.229 and -0.270) However the relationship of TE with CID was insignificant. A positive and significant relationship was visualized between TE and dry matter production in both control (r = 0.917**) and stress (0.718**) treatments. Relationships of total dry matter with SLA and CID were monitored insignificant and negative in control and positive in stress treatment indicated difference in dry matter production under two treatments. It seems that, in Cenchrus species, CID was influenced more by the photosynthetic capacity than by stomatal conductance, as indicated by its positive relationship with SLAin both control (r = 0.511) and stress (r = 0.544) conditions and negative relationship with root dry matter production under control (r = -0.921**) and stress (r = -0.919***) condition. Results showed good correspondence between CID and SLA, indicating that lines having high TE and biomass production can be exploited for their genetic improvement for drought.     

燕山典型流域两种造林树种生态系统碳储量及固碳潜力研究

选择燕山典型流域6个林龄序列的小叶杨（Populus simonii）和5个林龄序列的山杏（Prunus sibirica）主要造林树种为研究对象,利用时间替代空间样地测量法量化退牧还林后生物量碳储量、凋落物碳储量和土壤碳储量及生态系统碳储量的变化规律,同时以各组成碳库-林龄序列中的最大碳储量之和作为生态系统饱和碳储量,以未退牧的天然草地生态系统碳储量作为初始植被类型的碳储量,分析总结了退牧还林对生态系统碳储量和碳循环的影响。结果表明,退牧还林后生态系统的生物量碳储量、凋落物碳储量基本随退牧年限的增加而增加,土壤碳储量随退牧年限的增加呈现先减小后增加的趋势。在没有人为干扰的情况下,9、15、18、22及29 a生小叶杨林的生态系统碳储量分别为7147.45、7461.67、7509.895、8468.375及8247.85 g·m^-2,9、15、18、22及26 a生山杏林的生态系统碳储量分别为6695.44、6700.82、8011.86、8001.92及7981.92 g·m^-2;9、15、18、22、29及36 a生小叶杨林的生态系统固碳潜力分别为757.08、1071.3、1119.53、2078.01、1857.48及1312.21 g·m^-2,9、15、18、22及26 a生山杏林的生态系统固碳潜力分别为310.45、1621.49、1611.55、1591.55及757.08 g·m^-2。长期来看,研究区退牧还林对提高生态系统碳汇能力是可观的、积极的。研究结果对提高造林对碳汇影响的估测能力提供数据支持,也为政府参与国际全球气候变化的谈判提供一个很好的案例研究和科学根据。     

Simulation of aquatic food web and species interactions by adaptive agents embodied with evolutionary computation: a conceptual framework

Individual-based and state variable-based adaptive agents (AA) are discussed regarding their relevance to different types of ecosystems. Individual-based AA proved applicable to a spatially explicit simulation of highly simplified terrestrial food webs. State variable-based AA with evolutionary computation (EC) embodied are suggested for the simulation of aquatic food webs and plankton species interactions. Embodiment of EC in AA can be achieved by evolving predictive rules (ER), differential equations (EDE) or artificial neural networks (ANN) derived from a diverse lake database. In order to provide ecosystem simulation with resilience to environmental change, agent banks can be created containing alternative agents for same species or functional groups from different lakes. State variable-based AA are currently tested for aquatic ecosytem simulation by means of a diverse lake database. It promises to overcome constraints by the rigidity of traditional lake ecosystem models.     

Numerical modelling of diel carbon production and zooplankton grazing on the Scotian shelf based on observational data

Using high resolution vertical distributions of chlorophyll and zooplankton, and field observations of photosynthetic parameters, it is shown that on the Scotian Shelf the peak in the vertical profile of primary production generally lies shallower than the chlorophyll maximum, but coincides with the peak in the vertical profile of copepods. A simple numerical model shows that the 24th carbon budget can be balanced using the best available estimates of the rate constants for phytoplankton growth, zooplankton grazing and vertical migration. This calculation is very sensitive to the size of the weight-specific ration and favors values of ～40% d^?1 for it.     

The relationship between diversity profiles,evenness and species richness based on partial ordering

Problems with the notion of evenness, such as ambiguity, proliferation of indices, choice of indices, etc. can be overcome by a more fundamental, mathematical approach. We show that the Lorenz curve is an adequate representation of evenness. The corresponding Lorenz order induces a partial order in the set of equivalent abundance vectors. Also diversity can adequately be studied through a partial order and represented by a curve derived from the classical Lorenz curve. This curve is known as the intrinsic diversity profile (or k-dominance curve) and was introduced by Patil and Taillie (1979) and Lambshead et al. (1981).     

Determining factors that influence the dispersal of a pelagic species: A comparison between artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms

Because of increasing transport and trade there is a growing threat of marine invasive species being introduced into regions where they do not presently occur. So that the impacts of such species can be mitigated, it is important to predict how individuals, particularly passive dispersers are transported and dispersed in the ocean as well as in coastal regions so that new incursions of potential invasive species are rapidly detected and origins identified. Such predictions also support strategic monitoring, containment and/or eradication programs. To determine factors influencing a passive disperser, around coastal New Zealand, data from the genus Physalia (Cnidaria: Siphonophora) were used. Oceanographic data on wave height and wind direction and records of occurrences of Physalia on swimming beaches throughout the summer season were used to create models using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and Na?ve Bayesian Classifier (NBC). First, however, redundant and irrelevant data were removed using feature selection of a subset of variables. Two methods for feature selection were compared, one based on the multilayer perceptron and another based on an evolutionary algorithm. The models indicated that New Zealand appears to have two independent systems driven by currents and oceanographic variables that are responsible for the redistribution of Physalia from north of New Zealand and from the Tasman Sea to their subsequent presence in coastal waters. One system is centred in the east coast of northern New Zealand and the other involves a dynamic system that encompasses four other regions on both coasts of the country. Interestingly, the models confirm, molecular data obtained from Physalia in a previous study that identified a similar distribution of systems around New Zealand coastal waters. Additionally, this study demonstrates that the modelling methods used could generate valid hypotheses from noisy and complicated data in a system about which there is little previous knowledge.     

基于群落数量特征的喀斯特湿地森林群落优势种分析

草海湿地是贵州省最大的天然淡水湿地湖泊,具有典型高原喀斯特湿地特征,作为国家一级保护鸟类黑颈鹤的主要越冬栖息地,对其展开各方面研究具有重要意义。之前对草海的研究主要集中在湖泊水体富营养化[1-2]、土壤重金属污染[3-5]、浮游植物与水生生物时空分布及保护区生态环境恢复等领域,而对草海湿地流域汇水区域森林生态系统的研究鲜有报道。采用典型标准样地调查法、群落数量特征和Kikvidze-Ohsawa优势种判定法,对草海湿地流域不同坡度的森林植物群落优势种及群落特征进行分析。结果表明,(1)草海喀斯特湿地流域森林群落主要以松科(Pinaceae)、壳斗科(Fagaceae)、杜鹃花科(Ericaceae)、蔷薇科(Rosaceae)、忍冬科(Caprifoliaceae)、禾本科(Gramineae)、莎草科(Cyperaceae)、菊科(Asteraceae)等植物为主。(2)采用IV-Kikvidze-Ohsawa优势种评判法对不同坡度森林植物群落优势种比例分析发现,随坡度的增加优势种比呈现出先减少后增加的趋势,乔木群落优势种比例变化拐点在斜坡,灌木和草本群落拐点在陡坡。(3)采用SDR4-Kikvidze-Ohsawa优势种评判法对不同坡度森林植物群落优势种比例分析,发现乔木群落优势种比例随坡度的增加而加大;灌木和草本群落优势种的比例随坡度的增加先减少后增加,优势种比例变化拐点为陡坡。(4)结合植物群落数量与Kikvidze-Ohsawa优势种评判法对植物群落进行分析发现,群落数量指标所包含信息量的多寡直接影响分析结果,因此在对群落优势种的研究中,应选择包含种群信息量较多的群落数量指标。     

基于长期试验资料对中国农田表土有机碳含量变化的估算

分析了文献报道的我国26个长期试验站点29个长期试验的农田土壤有机碳变化情况,并据此分析了近20年来我国农田土壤表层有机碳储量的可能变化范围。收集的长期试验涉及水稻土、红壤、黑土、棕壤、潮土等15种土壤类型。选择每一长期试验的不施肥对照(0类)、有机碳含量增长最慢或下降最快(I类)、增长最快或下降最慢(II类)、纯化肥NPK平衡施肥(III类)4种处理进行分析,分别代表极端耗竭、不合理施肥、增长潜力和常见施肥情景下的土壤有机碳含量(储量)变化。结果表明,对照土壤的有机碳含量变化速率平均为-0.06g·kg-1·a-1;I、II、III类处理情景下土壤有机碳含量变化率分别为-0.008g·kg-1·a-1、0.29g·kg-1·a-1和0.05g·kg-1·a-1。据此推算,在极端耗竭情景下,过去20年全国农田表土有机碳贮量减少419Tg;在I、II或III类处理情景下,农田表层土壤有机碳储量变化分别为下降99Tg、增加1.56Pg和增加208Tg。II类和III类处理情景的有机碳储量变化量差值表明,我国农田表层土壤具有较大的固碳潜力。