Increase in Quantity and Quality of Suitable Areas for Invasive Species as Climate Changes

As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species’ establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima     

Experimental assessment of factors influencing microhabitat selection by the two tidepool fishes Oligocottus maculosus and O. snyderi

Oligocottus maculosus Girard and O. snyderi Greeley are two similar tidepool fishes with differing, but overlapping, intertidal distribution patterns. The factors influencing microhabitat selection and distribution patterns were experimentally assessed to elucidate the mechanisms by which the two species partition the resources of the intertidal environment. O. snyderi displays a much more rigid substrate-cover requirement. This, combined with its stenothermal nature serve to strongly restrict the intertidal distribution of this species. O. maculosus has a more generalized substrate-cover requirement and is also known to be eurythermal and euryhaline. Thus, O. maculosus is a ubiquitous intertidal species. Other behavioral attributes of O. maculosus, such as its tide-related locomotor activity and preference for shallow water, facilitate its particular intertidal distribution pattern. Similar depth preferences or tide-related activity were not observed in O. snyderi. Interspecific competition and related agonistic behavior were absent from both species and are probably not important to their microhabitat selection and intertidal distribution patterns.Based on a portion of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada     

Effects of time since fire on birds: how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (> 20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (< 5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (> 20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.     

物种敏感度分布(SSD)方法在农药环境风险评估中的应用

物种敏感度分布法(Species Sensitive Distribution,SSD)能够依据不同物种对农药等胁迫因素的敏感度服从一定的累积概率分布,以统计形式将多种非靶标物种的实验室数据进行汇总分析,获得物种对农药的敏感度差异,作为效应评估指标应用于农药风险评估。本文综述了SSD概念、方法原理、国内外研究和应用进展,并以毒死蜱为例进行了数据分析。由此建议继续关注国际上对SSD及更复杂模型模拟研究进展,以便应用于我国农药环境风险评估,推动我国农药管理的持续发展。     

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?: Detecting elevational shifts using response curve shapes

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either “move, adapt or die”. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.     

Upper-slope distributions of oceanic lanternfishes (family: Myctophidae)

In order to determine the effects of bottom depth and water column structure on slope distributions, lanternfishes in the Cape Canyon and Cape Point Valley (eastern South Atlantic) and from the Feni Ridge and Hebridean Terrace (eastern North Atlantic) were sampled with commercial midwater nets fished 10 m above the bottom at preselected depths. Fifty-one species were taken in the eastern South Atlantic and 17 species in the eastern North Atlantic. Analyses of the samples included clustering and multi-dimensional scaling ordination of the root-root transformed densities using the Bray-Curtis similarity index. In the eastern South Atlantic (March 1988), where the horizontal and vertical temperature structuring of the water column was marked, oceanic myctophids were not taken shallower than the 300 m-depth horizon and less than one-third of the total number of species occurred inside the 500 m-depth horizon. Temperatures and bottom depths correlated with the downslope distributions of the species. Down-slope zonation was apparent. In the eastern North Atlantic (May 1983), where the temperature structure of the water column was similar at all stations, no oceanic species were taken at the 200 m-depth horizon and more than one-half of the total number of species was taken at the 300 m-depth horizon. Species distributions correlated with depth, and downslope zonation was not evident. The data sets, as well as information from the West Florida slope, suggest that both the depth and the regional temperature structure of the water column effect the upper slope distributions of oceanic myctophids. Long-slope, ribbon distribution patterns (generalized down-slope zonation) in myctophids may therefore be localized artifacts produced by the interaction of these factors.     

Modeling and spatial prediction of pre-settlement patterns of forest distribution using witness tree data

At the time of European settlement, land surveys were conducted progressively westward throughout the United States. Outside of the original 13 colonies, surveys generally followed the Public Land Survey system in which trees, called witness trees, were regularly recorded at 1 mi by 1 mi grid intersections. This unintentional sampling provides insight into the composition and structure of pre-European settlement forests, which is used as baseline data to assess forest change following settlement. In this paper, a model for the Public Land Surveys of east central Alabama is developed. Assuming that the locations of trees of each species are realized from independent Poisson processes whose respective log intensities are linear functions of environmental covariates (i.e., elevation, landform, and physiographic province), the species observed at the survey grid intersections are independently sampled from a generalized logistic regression model. If all 68 species found in the survey were included, the model would be highly over-parameterized, so only the distribution of the most common taxon, pines, will be considered at this time. To assess the impact of environmental factors not included in the model, a hidden Gaussian random field shall be added as a random effect. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed for Bayesian inference on model parameters, and for Bayes posterior prediction of the spatial distribution of pines in east central Alabama. Received: June 2004 / Revised: November 2004     

南亚热带森林3层次物种多度之广义泊松分布模型

生物群落中物种多度分布(species abundance distribution)呈典型的倒J形,即其中存在许多稀有种、少量常见种.物种多度分布模型研究有助于解决森林生态恢复中的物种配置等实际问题.本研究考察了一种过分散(over-dispersion,或称超分布,即方差大于均值)的离散型分布,即具有λ和α两个参数...     

植物空间分布的多样性及其度量

分析了23个物种多样性指数公式的取值范围和值域变化,发现它们可以分为3种类型即递增型、递减型和不定型.确定分布区中心或分布式样的中心可用递增型物种多样性指数公式,如Simpson(2),Simpson(3)/Gini,Simpson(5)/PIE,Shannon.Weaver和McIntosh等,据其平均值即可确定分布区中心或分布式样中心.用综合参数d;和Shannon-Weaver指数及其等级多样性与均匀度指数研究了我国裸子植物分布.结果表明,中国裸子植物综合丰度基本上自云贵川西南三省向四周辐射状递减,多样性指数也是自西南或华南向其它地区递减;均匀度指数变化规律不明显,但总的是我国东半部较高,热带与温带性质的交汇过渡地带是云贵川三者.     

Trends in anecdotal fox sightings in Tasmania accounted for by psychological factors

There has been little evaluation of anecdotal sightings as a means to confirm new incursions of invasive species. This paper explores the potential for equivocal information communicated by the media to account for patterns of anecdotal reports. In 2001, it was widely reported that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in the island state of Tasmania (Australia), although this claim was later revealed to be baseless. Regardless, by 2013 a total of 3153 anecdotal fox sightings had been reported by members of the public, which implied their distribution was wide. For each month in 2001–2003, we defined a monthly media index (MMI) of fox‐related media coverage, an index of their relative seasonal abundance (abundance), and a factor denoting claims of fox evidence (claimed evidence) regardless of its evidentiary quality. We fitted a generalized linear model with Poisson error for monthly totals of anecdotal sightings with factors of year and claimed evidence and covariates of MMI, abundance, and hours of darkness. The collective effect of psychological factors (MMI, claimed evidence, and year) relative to biophysical factors (photoperiod and abundance) was highly significant (χ² = 122.1, df = 6, p < 0.0001), whereas anticipated changes in abundance had no significant influence on reported sightings (p = 0.15). An annual index of fox media from 2001 to 2010 was strongly associated with the yearly tally of anecdotal sightings (p = 0.018). The odds ratio of sightings ranked as reliable by the fox eradication program in any year decreased exponentially at a rate of 0.00643 as the total number of sightings increased (p < 0.0001) and was indicative of an observer‐expectancy bias. Our results suggest anecdotal sightings are highly susceptible to cognitive biases and when used to qualify and quantify species presence can contribute to flawed risk assessments.     

Monotonicity-constrained species distribution models

Flexible modeling frameworks for species distribution models based on generalized additive models that allow for smooth, nonlinear effects and interactions are of increasing importance in ecology. Commonly, the flexibility of such smooth function estimates is controlled by means of penalized estimation procedures. However, the actual shape remains unspecified. In many applications, this is not desirable as researchers have a priori assumptions on the shape of the estimated effects, with monotonicity being the most important. Here we demonstrate how monotonicity constraints can be incorporated in a recently proposed flexible framework for species distribution models. Our proposal allows monotonicity constraints to be imposed on smooth effects and on ordinal, categorical variables using an additional asymmetric L2 penalty. Model estimation and variable selection for Red Kite (Milvus milvus) breeding was conducted using the flexible boosting framework implemented in R package mboost.     

New multidimensional functional diversity indices for a multifaceted framework in functional ecology

Functional diversity is increasingly identified as an important driver of ecosystem functioning. Various indices have been proposed to measure the functional diversity of a community, but there is still no consensus on which are most suitable. Indeed, none of the existing indices meets all the criteria required for general use. The main criteria are that they must be designed to deal with several traits, take into account abundances, and measure all the facets of functional diversity. Here we propose three indices to quantify each facet of functional diversity for a community with species distributed in a multidimensional functional space: functional richness (volume of the functional space occupied by the community), functional evenness (regularity of the distribution of abundance in this volume), and functional divergence (divergence in the distribution of abundance in this volume). Functional richness is estimated using the existing convex hull volume index. The new functional evenness index is based on the minimum spanning tree which links all the species in the multidimensional functional space. Then this new index quantifies the regularity with which species abundances are distributed along the spanning tree. Functional divergence is measured using a novel index which quantifies how species diverge in their distances (weighted by their abundance) from the center of gravity in the functional space. We show that none of the indices meets all the criteria required for a functional diversity index, but instead we show that the set of three complementary indices meets these criteria. Through simulations of artificial data sets, we demonstrate that functional divergence and functional evenness are independent of species richness and that the three functional diversity indices are independent of each other. Overall, our study suggests that decomposition of functional diversity into its three primary components provides a meaningful framework for its quantification and for the classification of existing functional diversity indices. This decomposition has the potential to shed light on the role of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning and on the influence of biotic and abiotic filters on the structure of species communities. Finally, we propose a general framework for applying these three functional diversity indices.     

A new distribution of Caucasian wingnut (Pterocarya fraxinifolia (Poiret) Spach) in the Kahramanmaras region, Turkey

Caucasian wingnut (Pterocarya fraxinifolia (Poiret) Spach) is a relict tree species having limited natural distribution in Turkey. In this study, a new distribution of this species in the Kahramanmaras region was explained. This distribution occurs in Onsenhopuru and Yavuzlar villages and Yesilyore town of Turkoglu district, at elevations between 600 and 640 m along Orcan stream, and continues about 4 km. In this area, Caucasian wingnut had about 100 trees. This distribution area of the species, quite important for biodiversity, should be protected and the existing individuals should be evaluated as a gene resource. Especially vegetative reproduction of the species should be started and the seedlings obtained should be used at the margins of lakes and streams, parks and large gardens, avenues, boulevards, and streets in the region.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

Quadratic diversity: Its maximization can reduce the richness of species

In recent decades numerous diversity indices have been introduced. Among them the quadratic entropy index Q expresses the mean difference between two individuals chosen from the community at random. Differing from diversity indices habitually employed, Q does not satisfy a property postulated earlier for those measures. Namely, the uniform distribution of species does not necessarily yield the maximal index value. Q is based on the difference matrix of species. For a given matrix one can seek for the vector yielding the maximum quadratic entropy. This task leads to a quadratic programming problem. Using the appropriate program of a program package, we determined the maximum vector for a genetic difference matrix of crane species, as published in the literature. We discovered that some components (frequencies) in the maximum vector are equal to zero. That is, by maximizing the quadratic diversity some species can be eliminated. We discuss briefly the possible implications of this observation. Moreover, even if all elements in the maximum vector are positive, the elements can differ.     

Geographical Range Size and the Conservation of Mexican Mammals

Range was estimated for the 423 noninsular mammals of Mexico to identify those species with more restricted distributions and to detect priority areas for conservation based on the presence of such species. Thirty-eight percent of nonvolant mammals and 15.4% of bats are restricted in Mexico to areas of less than 114,000 km². Restricted species were defined as those occurring in ranges smaller than the median for bats and for nonvolant species. Following this criterion, most nonvolant species with restricted distribution in Mexico are either endemic to the country or are shared with the United States, whereas endemic chiropteran species are few, and most Mexican bats with restricted distribution also occur in South America. Nonvolant mammals with restricted distribution in Mexico tend to be of small body size, herbivore or granivore, and fossorial or semifossorial. Among bats, gleaners are significantly more restricted than aerial insectivores. Species with restricted distribution are inadequately represented in the current official list of endangered species, particularly in the case of nonvolant mammals. Similarly, some areas of Mexico that harbor several species with restricted distribution are not represented in the Mexican system of protected areas. Therefore, rarity, in this case measured by the area of distribution, should be included as an additional criterion for conservation of the Mexican mammal fauna.     

The role of local and landscape level measures of greenness in modelling boreal plant species richness

Measurements of primary productivity and its heterogeneity based on satellite images can provide useful estimates of species richness and distribution patterns. However, species richness at a given site may depend not only on local habitat quality and productivity but also on the characteristics of the surrounding landscape. In this study we investigated whether the predictions of species richness of plant families in northern boreal landscape in Finland can be improved by incorporating greenness information from the surrounding landscape, as derived from remotely sensed data (mean, maximum, standard deviation and range values of NDVI derived from Landsat ETM), into local greenness models. Using plant species richness data of 28 plant families from 440 grid cells of 25 ha in size, generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted into three different sets of explanatory variables: (1) local greenness only, (2) landscape greenness only, and (3) combined local and landscape greenness. The derived richness–greenness relationships were mainly unimodal or positively increasing but varied between different plant families, and depended also on whether greenness was measured as mean or maximum greenness. Incorporation of landscape level greenness variables improved significantly both the explanatory power and cross-validation statistics of the models including only local greenness variables. Landscape greenness information derived from remote sensing data integrated with local information has thus the potentiality to improve predictive assessments of species richness over extensive and inaccessible areas, especially in high-latitude landscapes. Overall, the significant relationship between plants and surrounding landscape quality detected here suggests that landscape factors should be considered in preserving species richness of boreal environments, as well as in conservation planning for biodiversity in other environments.     

Use of Coarse‐Resolution Models of Species’ Distributions to Guide Local Conservation Inferences

Abstract: Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time‐consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse‐resolution distribution data are available to define high‐quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures.     

Prey vulnerability in relation to sexual coloration of prey

Sexual selection that results in the evolution of exaggerated secondary sexual characters has been hypothesized to impose production and maintenance costs of such traits on their bearers. Costs arising from sexual selection could increase the intensity of predator-mediated natural selection, leading to the prediction that species with exaggerated secondary sexual characters should be particularly susceptible to predation. We tested this prediction in a comparative analysis based on 31,745 prey individuals belonging to 66 species of birds collected from a total of 937 breeding events by 33 to 66 different pairs of European sparrowhawks Accipiter nisus annually during a period of 21 years. To assess vulnerability of different species we estimated a prey vulnerability index based on the difference in the logarithmically transformed absolute abundance of prey minus the logarithmically transformed expected abundance as determined by population density of breeding birds. The prey vulnerability index was predicted by sexual dichromatism, accounting for 23% of the variance in risk of predation among species, even when considering similarity in phenotype among species due to common descent (in the latter case explaining 12% of the variance). This finding suggests that sexual selection is an important evolutionary force-affecting predator–prey interactions.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at