Midwest U.S. landscape change to 2020 driven by biofuel mandates

Meeting future biofuel targets set by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) will require a substantial increase in production of corn. The Midwest, which has the highest overall crop production capacity, is likely to bear the brunt of the biofuel-driven changes. In this paper, we set forth a method for developing a possible future landscape and evaluate changes in practices and production between base year (BY) 2001 and biofuel target (BT) 2020. In our BT 2020 Midwest landscape, a total of 25 million acres (1 acre = 0.40 ha) of farmland was converted from rotational cropping to continuous corn. Several states across the Midwest had watersheds where continuous corn planting increased by more than 50%. The output from the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development (CARD) econometric model predicted that corn grain production would double. In our study we were able to get within 2% of this expected corn production. The greatest increases in corn production were in the Corn Belt as a result of conversion to continuous corn planting. In addition to changes to cropping practices as a result of biofuel initiatives we also found that urban growth would result in a loss of over 7 million acres of productive farmland by 2020. We demonstrate a method which successfully combines economic model output with gridded land cover data to create a spatially explicit detailed classification of the landscape across the Midwest. Understanding where changes are likely to take place on the landscape will enable the evaluation of trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem services allowing proactive conservation and sustainable production for human well-being into the future.     

Birds and bats reduce insect biomass and leaf damage in tropical forest restoration sites

Both birds and bats are important insect predators in tropical systems. However, the relative influence of birds and bats on insect populations and their indirect effects on leaf damage have not previously been investigated in tropical forest restoration sites. Leaf damage by herbivorous insects can negatively affect the growth and survival of tropical plants and thus can influence the success of tropical forest restoration efforts. We used an exclosure experiment to examine the top-down effects of birds and bats on insects and leaf damage in a large-scale forest restoration experiment. Given the potential influence of tree planting design on bird and bat abundances, we also investigated planting design effects on bird and bat insectivory and leaf damage. The experiment included two planting treatment plots: islands, where trees were planted in patches, and plantations, where trees were planted in rows to create continuous cover. In both types of plots, insect biomass was highest on tree branches where both birds and bats were excluded from foraging and lowest on branches without exclosures where both birds and bats were present. In the island plots, birds and bats had approximately equal impacts on insect populations, while in plantations bats appeared to have a slightly stronger effect on insects than did birds. In plantations, the levels of leaf damage were higher on branches where birds and bats were excluded than on branches where both had access. In island plots, no significant differences in leaf damage were found between exclosure treatments although potential patterns were in the same direction as in the plantations. Our results suggest that both birds and bats play important roles as top predators in restoration systems by reducing herbivorous insects and their damage to planted trees. Tropical restoration projects should include efforts to attract and provide suitable habitat for birds and bats, given their demonstrated ecological importance.     

化学品健康风险评估过程中的数据质量评估技术概述

自1938年美国首先颁布管控化学品的法律以来,健康风险评估逐步发展,各个国家和地区相继颁布文件,并已形成较为完善的评估框架.由于在化学品健康风险评估的过程中,存在大量收集引用的数据及信息,因此数据质量评估是保证风险评估结果可信的关键.目前为止美国环保署(environmental protection agency,E...     

Evaluation of the validity of the US EPA's cancer risk assessment of arsenic for low-level exposures: a likelihood ratio approach

Skin cancers associated with ingesting of arsenic have been documented since the 19th century. A study in the southwestern coastal area of Taiwan where people drank well water containing arsenic is generally recognised as providing the best data available for quantifying the risk, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) used these data to conduct a risk assessment of arsenic ingestion. However, the lowest exposure category in the Taiwan study included arsenic levels up to 290 µg L^–1, which is nearly six times higher than the current EPA maximum contaminant level (MCL), 50 µg L^–1. Therefore, the EPA risk assessment model extrapolated data on high-level exposures to generate risk estimates for low-level exposures. To evaluate the validity of this model, we conducted a quantitative review of epidemiological studies observing arsenic exposures below 290 µg L^–1. A ratio of the likelihood of the EPA model being inappropriate to that of it being appropriate was calculated for each study population as a measurement of the validity of the EPA model. Although existing human data on low-level exposures are limited, the review suggested that the EPA model is unlikely to be able to predict the risk of skin cancer accurately when the arsenic exposure level is between 170 and 270 µg L^–1.     

Carbon trading across sources and periods constrained by the Marrakesh Accords

We examine the potential effects on permit prices and abatement costs of four compliance rules governing emissions trade across sources and periods in the Kyoto Protocol: The banking rule that allows excess permits to be used later; the restoration rate rule that penalizes borrowing; the commitment period reserve rule that limits sales; and finally, the suspension rule that restricts borrowing and sales. Our framework is a two-period model where parties may be out of compliance in the Kyoto period, but are assumed to comply at a later time. Under varying assumptions about market power and US participation, we find that the rules may have pronounced effects on individual costs, but overall efficiency is not severely affected.     

Build it,but will they come? Evidence from consumer choice between gasoline and sugarcane ethanol

How consumers might switch from gasoline and diesel to alternative energy sources is not known, since the availability of alternatives is currently very limited. To bridge this gap, we exploit exogenous variation in ethanol prices at Brazil's pumps and uncover substantial consumer heterogeneity in the choice between long-established gasoline and an alternative that is similarly available and usable: sugarcane ethanol. We observe roughly 20% of flexible-fuel motorists choosing gasoline when gasoline is priced 20% above ethanol in energy-adjusted terms ($/mile) and, similarly, 20% of motorists choosing ethanol when ethanol is priced 20% above gasoline. We use transaction-level data to explore “non-price” characteristics which differentiate the two goods in the minds of different groups of consumers. Our findings suggest—and a counterfactual illustrates—that switching away from gasoline en masse, should this be desired, would require considerable price discounts to boost voluntary adoption, in the US and elsewhere.     

Incorporating behaviour into simple models of dispersal using the biological control agent Dicyphus hesperus

We explored the utility of incorporating easily measured, biologically realistic movement rules into simple models of dispersal. We depart from traditional random walk models by designing an individual-based simulation model where we decompose animal movement into three separate processes: emigration, between-patch movement, and immigration behaviour. These processes were quantified using experiments on the omnivorous insect Dicyphus hesperus moving through a tomato greenhouse. We compare the predictions of the individual-based model, along with a series of biased random walk models, against an independent experimental release of D. hesperus. We find that in this system, the short-term dispersal of these insects is described well by our individual-based model, but can also be described by a 2D grid-based biased random walk model when mortality is accounted for.     

Fuel prices and new vehicle fuel economy—Comparing the United States and Western Europe

Several recent papers have documented an effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the United States. This paper estimates the effect of fuel prices on average new vehicle fuel economy for the eight largest European markets. The analysis spans the years 2002–2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to control for policies, consumer preferences, and other potentially confounding factors. We find fuel prices to have a statistically significant effect on average new vehicle fuel economy in Europe. The effect estimated for Europe is much smaller than comparable estimates for the United States.     

Green markets, eco-certification, and equilibrium fraud

Consumers voluntarily pay significant price premiums to acquire unobservable environmental attributes in green markets. This paper considers the performance of eco-certification policy under circumstances where consumers cannot discern environmental attributes in goods, but are able to form rational expectations regarding the extent of illicit activities in the green market. The main results are: (i) fraud is less prevalent in green markets when entry barriers limit the number of firms; (ii) conventional environmental policies on polluting techniques increase the incidence of fraud, and can even preclude the use of non-polluting techniques which would otherwise emerge in green markets; (iii) voluntary eco-certification policies can decrease fraud, increase output, and raise profits per firm; and (iv) in cases where the socially optimal resource allocation can be supported, the optimal policy involves negative unit certification fees, positive fixed certification fees and is revenue-generating for the certifying agent.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Syrian olive oils and their likely daily intakes

The levels of 16 US Environmental Protection Agency polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (16 EPA PAHs) in Syrian olive oils have been determined. Forty-two samples including commercial extra virgin and virgin olive oils, and virgin olive oils from olive mills were analyzed. Only naphthalene (NAP) was detected in all olive oil samples under investigation. Among the studied 16 EPA PAHs, the highest maximum concentration was also observed for NAP (120 μg kg^?1). Moreover, three samples exceeded the European Union (EU) maximum level of 2 μg kg^?1 for benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in oils and fats, and only one sample exceeded the EU maximum level of 10 μg kg^?1 for the sum of benz[a]anthracene, chrysene, BaP, and benzo[b]fluoranthene (PAH4). The likely daily intakes of the total sum of 16 EPA PAHs, the sum of eight genotoxic PAHs, the sum of PAH4, the BaP, and the BaP equivalent through consumption of Syrian olive oils were estimated.     

Understanding why consumers in China switch between wild,farmed, and synthetic bear bile products

An important rationale for legally farmed and synthetic wildlife products is that they reduce illegal, wild-sourced trade by supplying markets with sustainable alternatives. For this to work, more established illegal-product consumers must switch to legal alternatives than new legal-product consumers switch to illegal wild products. Despite the widespread debate on the magnitude and direction of switching, studies among actual consumers are lacking. We used an anonymous online survey of 1421 traditional Chinese medicine consumers in China to investigate switching among legal farmed, synthetic, and illegal wild bear bile. We examined the past consumption behavior, applied a discrete choice experiment framed within worsening hypothetical disease scenarios, and used latent class models to investigate groups with shared preferences. Bear bile consumers (86% respondents) were wealthier, more likely to have family who consumed bile, and less knowledgeable about bile treatments than nonconsumers. Consumer preferences were heterogenous, but most consumer preferences switched between bile types as disease worsened. We identified five distinct latent classes within our sample: law-abiding consumers (34% respondents), who prefer legal products and were unlikely to switch; two all-natural consumer groups (53%), who dislike synthetics but may switch between farmed and wild; and two nonconsumer groups (12%), who prefer not to buy bile. People with past experience of bile consumption had different preferences than those without. Willingness to switch to wild products was related to believing they were legal, although the likelihood of switching was mediated by preferences for cheaper products sold in legal, familiar places. We found that consumers of wild bile may switch to legal alternatives, given the availability of a range of products, whereas legal-product consumers may switch to illegal products if the barriers to doing so are small. Understanding preferences that promote or impede switching should be a key consideration when attempting to predict consumer behavior in complex wildlife markets.     

Toxicological evaluation of entomotoxic silica nanoparticle

Pest management researchers currently reappraise the use of inert dust-based insecticides because of the growing problem of environmental pollution and increasing insect resistance associated with conventional insecticides. Diatomaceous earth, which is amorphous micron-sized silica derived from fossilized phytoplankton, has become popular as an alternative insecticidal agent in European countries. In this investigation the insecticidal efficacy of amorphous lipophilic silica nanoparticle was examined on red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum), a stored grain insect pest. The biosafety of this silica nanoparticle formulation was studied in MRC-5 cell line with water-soluble tetrazolium and lactate dehydrogenase activity assays. Acute oral toxicity of these nanocides was studied in mice model following OECD guidelines for testing of chemicals as well as the effects of particle exposure on mouse blood parameters, serum biochemical levels, and histopathological changes in various organs.     

Double-dipping in environmental markets

There is an increasing tendency to use markets to induce the provision of environmental services. As such markets increase in scope, potential market participants might sell multiple environmental services. The question we consider here is whether participants in such markets should be allowed to sell credits in more than one market simultaneously. Some have argued in favor of such “double-dipping”, because it would make the provision of environmental services more profitable. In practice however, most programs do not allow double-dipping. We show that if the optimal level of pollution abatement is sought, then double-dipping maximizes societal net benefits. However, if pollution policies are set in a piecemeal fashion, then the caps for each market are unlikely to be optimal and, in this second-best setting, a policy prohibiting double-dipping can lead to greater social net benefits. We explore conditions under which a single-market policy is preferred, or equivalently, where piecemeal policies are likely to yield particularly inefficient outcomes.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in medicinal plants from Syria

The levels of 16 US Environmental Protection Agency polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (EPA PAHs) in 10 medicinal plants in different used parts of plant (leaves and flowers) have been determined. The analytical method consists of sample preparation by ultrasonic extraction with dichloromethane followed by silica gel clean-up. Subsequently, the analysis was carried out by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled to both ultraviolet and fluorescence detections in series to insure the detection of all 16 EPA PAHs. It was observed that the sum of the 16 PAHs (ΣPAHs) in the investigated medicinal plants ranged from 47 to 890 μg kg^–1 where the highest ΣPAHs was found in Sage plant sample. Light PAHs were dominants in all studied medicinal plants. The sum of eight genotoxic PAHs (ΣPAH8) have shown a better indicator of the degree of contamination with carcinogenic PAHs compared to benzo[a]pyrene in these products.     

Biological markets: supply and demand determine the effect of partner choice in cooperation,mutualism and mating

The formation of collaborating pairs by individuals belonging to two different classes occurs in the contexts of reproduction and intea-specific cooperation as well as of inter-specific mutualism. There is potential for partner choice and for competition for access to preferred partners in all three contexts. These selective forces have long been recognised as important in sexual selection, but their impact is not yet appreciated in cooperative and mutualistic systems. The formation of partnerships between members of different classes has much in common with the conclusion of trade agreements in human markets with two classes of traders, like producers and consumers, or employers and employees. Similar game-theoretical models can be used to predict the behaviour of rational traders in human markets and the evolutionarily stable strategies used in biological markets. We present a formal model in which the influence of the market mechanism on selection is made explicit. We restrict ourselves to biological markets in which: (1) Individuals do not compete over access to partners in an agonistic manner, but rather by outcompeting each other in those aspects that are preferred by the choosing party. (2) The commodity the partner has to offer cannot be obtained by the use of force, but requires the consent of the partner. These two restrictions ensure a dominant role for partner choice in the formation of partnerships. In a biological market model the decision to cooperate is based on the comparison between the offers of several potential partners, rather than on the behaviour of a single potential partner, as is implicitly assumed in currently accepted models of cooperation. In our example the members of one class A offer a commodity of fixed value in exchange for a commodity of variable value supplied by the other class, B. We show that when the B-class outnumbers the A-class sufficiently and the cost for the A-class to sample the offers of the B-class are low, the choosiness of the A-class will lead to selection for the supply of high value commodities by the B-class (Fig. 3a). Under the same market conditions, but with a high sampling cost this may still be the evolutionariy stable outcome, but another pair of strategies proves to be stable too: relaxed choosiness of class A coupled with low value commodities supplied by class B (Fig. 3b). We give a number of examples of mating, cooperative and mutualistic markets that resemble the low sampling cost situation depicted in Fig. 3a.     

The boll weevil‐cotton plant complex

The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boheman was introduced from Mexico into the United States about 1892. More than three‐fourths of all insect losses to cotton in this country have been attributed to this insect, and it is generally agreed that cotton cannot be profitably grown in areas where it occurs without adequate control measures. This review summarizes the chemically oriented research conducted on this plant‐insect complex during the past seventy years with emphasis on the program conducted since 1962 at the Boll Weevil Research Laboratory.

Of plant‐insect relationships, host plant resistance, feeding stimulants, plant attractants, and plant constituents are discussed. Insect‐insect relationships treated include insecticides, chemosterilants and hormones, sex attractants, and insect constituents. The development of an integrated program for the attempted eradication of this insect is also discussed.     

Pollution and Capital Markets in Developing Countries

It is said that firms in developing countries do not have incentives to invest in pollution control because of weak implementation of environmental regulations. This argument assumes that the regulator is the only agent that can create incentives for pollution control, and ignores that capital markets, if properly informed, may provide the appropriate financial and reputational incentives. We show that capital markets in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and the Philippines do react to announcements of environmental events, such as those of superior environmental performance or citizens' complaints. A policy implication is that environmental regulators in developing countries may explicitly harness those market forces by introducing structured programs of information release pertaining to firms' environmental performance: public disclosure mechanisms in developing countries may be a useful model to consider given limited government enforcement resources.     

Flooding impacts on responses of a riparian consumer to cross-ecosystem subsidies

Landscape-driven processes impact the magnitude and direction of cross-ecosystem resource subsidies, but they may also control consumers' numerical and functional responses by altering habitat availability. We investigated effects of the interaction between habitat availability and subsidy level on populations of a riparian fishing spider, Dolomedes aquaticus, using a flood disturbance gradient in the Waimakariri River catchment, New Zealand. D. aquaticus predominantly eat aquatic prey as they hunt from the water surface. However, D. aquaticus biomass peaked at rivers with intermediate flood disturbance, rather than at less flood-prone rivers where the biomass of aquatic insect prey was markedly higher. Flooding positively influenced spider habitat quality, and an experimental manipulation at stable rivers indicated that unembedded cobbles, preferred D. aquaticus habitat, were a limiting factor, preventing response to the increased prey resource at stable sites. Potential terrestrial prey abundance was low, did not vary across the disturbance gradient, and is likely to have been a much smaller component of the fishing spiders' diet than aquatic insect prey. Thus landscape-driven factors not only controlled the magnitude of resource subsidies, but also influenced the ability of consumers to respond to them by altering the physical nature of the ecosystem boundary.     

The Paradox of Forest Fragmentation Genetics

Abstract:  Theory predicts widespread loss of genetic diversity from drift and inbreeding in trees subjected to habitat fragmentation, yet empirical support of this theory is scarce. We argue that population genetics theory may be misapplied in light of ecological realities that, when recognized, require scrutiny of underlying evolutionary assumptions. One ecological reality is that fragment boundaries often do not represent boundaries for mating populations of trees that benefit from long-distance pollination, sometimes abetted by long-distance seed dispersal. Where fragments do not delineate populations, genetic theory of small populations does not apply. Even in spatially isolated populations, where genetic theory may eventually apply, evolutionary arguments assume that samples from fragmented populations represent trees that have had sufficient time to experience drift, inbreeding, and ultimately inbreeding depression, an unwarranted assumption where stands in fragments are living relicts of largely unrelated predisturbance populations. Genetic degradation may not be as important as ecological degradation for many decades following habitat fragmentation.