Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?

Species distribution models (SDMs) based on statistical relationships between occurrence data and underlying environmental conditions are increasingly used to predict spatial patterns of biological invasions and prioritize locations for early detection and control of invasion outbreaks. However, invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) face special challenges because (i) they typically violate SDM's assumption that the organism is in equilibrium with its environment, and (ii) species absence data are often unavailable or believed to be too difficult to interpret. This often leads researchers to generate pseudo-absences for model training or utilize presence-only methods, and to confuse the distinction between predictions of potential vs. actual distribution. We examined the hypothesis that true-absence data, when accompanied by dispersal constraints, improve prediction accuracy and ecological understanding of iSDMs that aim to predict the actual distribution of biological invasions. We evaluated the impact of presence-only, true-absence and pseudo-absence data on model accuracy using an extensive dataset on the distribution of the invasive forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in California. Two traditional presence/absence models (generalized linear model and classification trees) and two alternative presence-only models (ecological niche factor analysis and maximum entropy) were developed based on 890 field plots of pathogen occurrence and several climatic, topographic, host vegetation and dispersal variables. The effects of all three possible types of occurrence data on model performance were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and omission/commission error rates. Results show that prediction of actual distribution was less accurate when we ignored true-absences and dispersal constraints. Presence-only models and models without dispersal information tended to over-predict the actual range of invasions. Models based on pseudo-absence data exhibited similar accuracies as presence-only models but produced spatially less feasible predictions. We suggest that true-absence data are a critical ingredient not only for accurate calibration but also for ecologically meaningful assessment of iSDMs that focus on predictions of actual distributions.     

Are bioplastics an ecofriendly alternative to fossil fuel plastics?

Environmental Chemistry Letters - More than 390 million tons of fossil fuel plastics have been produced in 2022, and plastic pollution has become a major health issue for humans and ecosytems....     

How complex do models need to be to predict dispersal of threatened species through matrix habitats?

Persistence of species in fragmented landscapes depends on dispersal among suitable breeding sites, and dispersal is often influenced by the "matrix" habitats that lie between breeding sites. However, measuring effects of different matrix habitats on movement and incorporating those differences into spatially explicit models to predict dispersal is costly in terms of time and financial resources. Hence a key question for conservation managers is: Do more costly, complex movement models yield more accurate dispersal predictions? We compared the abilities of a range of movement models, from simple to complex, to predict the dispersal of an endangered butterfly, the Saint Francis' satyr (Neonympha mitchellii francisci). The value of more complex models differed depending on how value was assessed. Although the most complex model, based on detailed movement behaviors, best predicted observed dispersal rates, it was only slightly better than the simplest model, which was based solely on distance between sites. Consequently, a parsimony approach using information criteria favors the simplest model we examined. However, when we applied the models to a larger landscape that included proposed habitat restoration sites, in which the composition of the matrix was different than the matrix surrounding extant breeding sites, the simplest model failed to identify a potentially important dispersal barrier, open habitat that butterflies rarely enter, which may completely isolate some of the proposed restoration sites from other breeding sites. Finally, we found that, although the gain in predicting dispersal with increasing model complexity was small, so was the increase in financial cost. Furthermore, a greater fit continued to accrue with greater financial cost, and more complex models made substantially different predictions than simple models when applied to a novel landscape in which butterflies are to be reintroduced to bolster their populations. This suggests that more complex models might be justifiable on financial grounds. Our results caution against a pure parsimony approach to deciding how complex movement models need to be to accurately predict dispersal through the matrix, especially if the models are to be applied to novel or modified landscapes.     

Are low infidelity rates in feral horses due to infanticide?

A growing number of studies conducted on diverse taxa have shown that extra-pair/group paternity is higher than what would be predicted from behavioral observations alone. While it may be beneficial for females to mate with multiple males, this often results in offspring not sired by the behavioral father, which could influence offspring survival, especially in social mammals. Feral horses (Equus caballus) maintain stable social relationships over several years, usually with one stallion defending a harem band of unrelated mares against other males. Sneak copulations by subordinate males have been observed and mares sometimes change bands, both of which can result in foals sired by males other than the dominant band stallion. We measured female fidelity in free-ranging feral horses in 23 bands, with 51 foals over four foaling seasons and tested offspring paternity against parental behaviors. We used 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci and the program CERVUS 2.0 to determine and exclude potential sires. The majority of mares remained in the band with the sire of their foal resulting in most foals being sired by the band stallion. Most foals that were not sired by the band stallion were born in the year after a round-up and we could not determine if they were the result of band changing or sneak copulations. Foals born into a band without their sire had lower survival rates and mothers were significantly more protective of foals not sired by the band stallion. These findings suggest that band stability increases the reproductive success of mares and support the importance of infanticide risk in equid social structure.     

Does the canopy mixing layer model apply to highly flexible aquatic vegetation? Insights from numerical modelling

Vegetation is a characteristic feature of shallow aquatic flows such as rivers, lakes and coastal waters. Flow through and above aquatic vegetation canopies is commonly described using a canopy mixing layer analogy which provides a canonical framework for assessing key hydraulic characteristics such as velocity profiles, large-scale coherent turbulent structures and mixing and transport processes for solutes and sediments. This theory is well developed for the case of semi-rigid terrestrial vegetation and has more recently been applied to the case of aquatic vegetation. However, aquatic vegetation often displays key differences in morphology and biomechanics to terrestrial vegetation due to the different environment it inhabits. Here we investigate the effect of plant morphology and biomechanical properties on flow–vegetation interactions through the application of a coupled LES-biomechanical model. We present results from two simulations of aquatic vegetated flows: one assuming a semi-rigid canopy and the other a highly flexible canopy and provide a comparison of the associated flow regimes. Our results show that while both cases display canopy mixing layers, there are also clear differences in the shear layer characteristics and turbulent processes between the two, suggesting that the semi-rigid approximation may not provide a complete representation of flow–vegetation interactions.     

Are monoalgal diets inferior to plurialgal diets to maximize cultivation of the calanoid copepod Temora stylifera?

Temora stylifera adult copepods were fed with four different monoalgal diets and six combinations of the same cultures for 15 days. Fecundity, hatching success, number of cannibalized embryos, fecal pellet production, adult mortality and naupliar recruitment were compared, in order to find the best diet for this species. Phytoplankton species tested were Prorocentrum minimum (PRO); Isochrysis galbana (ISO); Tetraselmis suecica (TETRA) and Rhodomonas baltica (RHO) which were supplied alone or in different combinations and at various concentrations ranging from a minimum of 1 mg C L⁻¹ day⁻¹ to a maximum of 66 mg C L⁻¹ day⁻¹. Of the ten diets tested, ISO was the worst and was unable to sustain egg production and adult survival possibly because adults were unable to ingest this alga due to its small size. TETRA was also a poor food since it negatively impacted egg production and adult survival, as well as egg hatching success, possibly due to the lack of essential compounds necessary for optimal embryogenesis. RHO and PRO were the best foods inducing highest egg production, hatching success and naupliar recruitment. Even if mean egg production rates were similar to those obtained with some mixed diets, carbon intake concentrations with mixed diets were from 3 to 33 and from 6.6 to 66 times higher than with RHO and PRO given alone, respectively. Mixed diets of ISO and PRO, especially when supplied at higher concentrations (66 mg C L⁻¹ day⁻¹), had a negative effect on egg hatching success and adult survival, with a corresponding reduction in naupliar recruitment. On the other hand, mixed diets of TETRA and PRO promoted high naupliar recruitment but values were similar to PRO offered alone. Our results indicate that a good monoalgal diet such as RHO and PRO can be as effective as a mixed diet to sustain the mass cultivation of T. stylifera.     

Are yolk androgens and carotenoids in barn swallow eggs related to parental quality?

Recently, evidence is mounting that females can adaptively engineer the quality of their offspring via the deposition of yolk compounds, including carotenoids and androgens. In this study, we simultaneously consider how both carotenoids and androgens in egg yolk relate to parental quality in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster). First, we found no relationship between concentrations or amounts of yolk androgens and carotenoids. Yolk carotenoids decreased with laying order, whereas we found no relationship between yolk androgens and laying order. Second, we tested the Investment Hypothesis, which predicts that high-quality females or females paired to high quality mates, allocate differentially more of these yolk compounds to their offspring. For carotenoids, we mostly found evidence to counter predictions of the Investment hypothesis: (1) Carotenoid concentrations varied among females, (2) heavier eggs contained lower carotenoid concentrations, although heavier yolks contained greater amounts of carotenoids, (3) eggs of earlier-laying females had lower concentrations in their eggs, and (4) yolk carotenoids were not correlated with clutch size or male plumage ornamentation. For androgens, we found weak support for the Investment Hypothesis: (1) Yolk androgens varied among females, (2) heavier eggs and yolks contained greater amounts, although not concentrations of androgens, (3) females paired to more colorful males laid eggs with greater concentrations of androgens, and (4) no effects of laying date or morphological correlates of female quality on androgen concentrations in egg yolks. Overall, these findings suggest that each yolk compound may have different functions and therefore may be regulated by different mechanisms.     

Are rivers just big streams? A pulse method to quantify nitrogen demand in a large river

Given recent focus on large rivers as conduits for excess nutrients to coastal zones, their role in processing and retaining nutrients has been overlooked and understudied. Empirical measurements of nutrient uptake in large rivers are lacking, despite a substantial body of knowledge on nutrient transport and removal in smaller streams. Researchers interested in nutrient transport by rivers (discharge >10000 L/s) are left to extrapolate riverine nutrient demand using a modeling framework or a mass balance approach. To begin to fill this knowledge gap, we present data using a pulse method to measure inorganic nitrogen. (N) transport and removal in the Upper Snake River, Wyoming, USA (seventh order, discharge 12000 L/s). We found that the Upper Snake had surprisingly high biotic demand relative to smaller streams in the same river network for both ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-). Placed in the context of a meta-analysis of previously published nutrient uptake studies, these data suggest that large rivers may have similar biotic demand for N as smaller tributaries. We also found that demand for different forms of inorganic N (NH4+ vs. NO3-) scaled differently with stream size. Data from rivers like the Upper Snake and larger are essential for effective water quality management at the scale of river networks. Empirical measurements of solute dynamics in large rivers are needed to understand the role of whole river networks (as opposed to stream reaches) in patterns of nutrient export at regional and continental scales.     

Are local extinctions and recolonizations continuing at the colder limits of marine fish distributions? Halobatrachus didactylus (Bloch & Schneider, 1801), a possible candidate

In this paper, we compare the populations of the Lusitanian toadfish Halobatrachus didactylus along the Portuguese shore, using a putative fragment of the mitochondrial control region and the first intron of the S7 ribosomal protein gene. This demersal species ranges from the tropical West African coast to the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean, having its northern limit in the Tagus River. For the putative control region, a single haplotype occurs in all fish from Tagus and Sado (the location immediately to the south) with a clear increase in diversity to the South, peaking at Algarve (south Portugal). The data seem to point to a very recent Holocenic colonization of Tagus and Sado from the South (possibly Algarve). We suggest that even small oscillations in sea surface temperature (SST) may cause local extinctions and subsequent recolonizations in populations of thermophilic fish that are at the cold limit of their distributions.     

Are the Curative Properties of ‘Black Mud’ from the Dead Sea Due to the Presence of Bitumen (Asphalt) or Other Types of Organic Matter?

Deep black clayey sediments of the Dead Sea, previously covered with water at times of higher sea level, are being mined for therapeutic purposes and for the preparation of cosmetic products under the name Black Mud. It was claimed that the beneficial properties are due to the presence of bitumen (asphalt) as attested by the colour. Less commonly, the curative properties have been ascribed to humic acids or to organic matter derived from algae in the lake. Asphalt from the Dead Sea has been of major economic importance to the region and was used as a medication for 2000 years until the mid-20th century. Geochemical analysis of the Black Mud showed that it contains relatively little organic matter (ca. 0.6–0.8% organic carbon) and that the organic matter is mostly derived from the land masses surrounding the lake. Asphalt was totally absent and the concentration of humic acids very low. The black colour of the mud is rather due to the poorly crystallised iron sulphides. Based on this, the therapeutic properties of the mud are ascribed to its content of reduced sulphur species, its physical and chemical properties and possibly its brine content, but not to the presence of organic matter.     

Are all signals the same? Ontogenetic change in the response to conspecific and heterospecific chemical alarm signals by juvenile green sunfish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepomis cyanellus</Emphasis>)

Within aquatic communities, individuals may gain survival benefits by responding to the chemical alarm signals of heterospecific prey guild members. Piscivorous individuals, however, should be selected to use such chemical signals as foraging cues. A variety of centrarchid species, such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), undergo an ontogenetic change in their response to the chemical alarm cues of heterospecific guild members, switching from antipredator to foraging responses. This ontogenetic shift should occur when potential foraging benefits outweigh any survival advantage gained from an antipredator response. To test this model, we exposed juvenile green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) to the skin extracts of conspecifics, a heterospecific prey guild member (finescale dace, Phoxinus neogeaus) or an allopatric heterospecific (green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri). Juvenile sunfish exhibited a significant positive relationship between standard length and time spent moving and a significant negative relationship between length and time in a spine-erect posture, when exposed to dace skin extract, but not to either swordtail or conspecific skin extracts. Smaller individuals of less than 90 mm standard length (SL) decreased time moving and increased time with spines erect (indicating an antipredator response) while larger individuals (>90 mm SL) increased time moving and decreased time with spines erect (indicating a foraging response), when exposed to dace skin extract. Conversely, juvenile sunfish, regardless of size tested, always exhibited an antipredator response to conspecific skin extract. Sunfish exhibited no change in behaviour in response to swordtail skin extracts. These data further support our model of a threat sensitive trade-off in the response to chemical alarm signals by juvenile centrarchids.     

Are faecal hormone levels linked to winter progression,diet quality and social rank in young ungulates ? An experiment with white-tailed deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Odocoileus virginianus</Emphasis>) fawns

Hormones play a central role in the physiology and behaviour of animals. The recent development of noninvasive techniques has increased information on physical and social states of individuals through hormone measurements. The relationships among hormones, life history traits and behaviours are, however, still poorly known. For the first time, we evaluated natural winter glucocorticoid and testosterone levels in young ungulates in relation to winter progression, diet quality and social rank. Overwinter, levels of glucocorticoid and testosterone decreased, possibly due to the decline of fawns’ body mass. The relationships between hormone levels and diet quality were surprising: Fawns fed the control diet presented higher glucocorticoid and lower testosterone levels then fawns fed the poor diet, suggesting that control fawns faced a higher nutritional stress than those on the poor diet. Similarly to other studies on social mammals, we found no relationship between faecal glucocorticoid levels and social rank, suggesting that social stress was similar for dominant and subordinate fawns during winter. Testosterone levels were not correlated to social rank as found previously in groups of individuals forming stable social hierarchies and maintaining stable dominance relationships. The simultaneous suppression of glucocorticoid and testosterone levels suggests for the first time that young ungulates present a hormonal strategy to prevent fast depletion of limited proteins and fat resources during winter.