A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.     

Friction measurements on ramps using the Brungraber Mark II slipmeter

It is a common belief that a person is more likely to slip when walking on an inclined surface than when walking on a level surface. Reports of friction measurements were common on horizontal surfaces but were rare on inclined surfaces. A slip measurement device reports different readings on the same surface with different inclined angles if the effect of gravity comes into play. In this study, friction measurements were conducted on the same surface with 0°, 10° and 20° inclined angles under different footwear materials, floors, and surface conditions, using a Brungraber Mark II slipmeter. Statistically significant results were obtained for the measurement results under the inclined angle, footwear material, floor, and surface conditions. A regression model was established to describe the coefficients of friction on ramp floors under footwear material/floor/surface conditions. This model is significant at p < 0.0001 with an R² of 0.87. The cosine function of ramp angle, as suggested in the regression model, was recommended to be used as a correcting factor for friction measurement results using the Brungraber Mark II on ramps to report the corrected friction coefficient of the surfaces.     

Preferred surface microscopic geometric features on floors as potential interventions for slip and fall accidents on liquid contaminated surfaces

PROBLEM: Surface roughness affects friction, so selection of floor surfaces with certain roughness characteristics could potentially reduce slip and fall accidents. This article summarizes the preferred surface microscopic geometric features that could increase friction on surfaces covered with liquid contaminants. METHOD: Three types of surface features, represented by the average of the maximum height above the mean line in each cut-off length (R(pm)), the arithmetical average of surface slope (Delta(a)), and the kernel roughness depth (R(k)), are identified as preferred surface microscopic geometric features for a higher friction. The proper settings on the profilometers (instruments used to measure surface roughness) for optimizing these surface parameters are specified. The friction mechanisms involved reveal why these features are more desirable. RESULTS: Although surface roughness is important in determining slipperiness, there is still insufficient information to establish a safety criterion based on roughness; however, the method presented in this paper can readily provide a relative comparison. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The summary presented will help safety professionals properly select new floor surfaces or assess existing floors to reduce slip and fall accidents.     

Improving flammable mass estimation for vapor cloud explosion modeling in an offshore QRA

Presence of congestion and confinement in offshore modules due to limited availability of space make Vapor Cloud Explosions (VCEs) a significant contributor to risk. There are several methods available for quantifying the blast overpressure generated over distances and time. The approaches range from one-dimensional analysis using correlation models to 3-D analysis using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFDs). The correlation models are easy to use and well-suited for assessing a number of credible VCE scenarios. However, the overpressure results predicted by correlation models depend on a good estimate of flammable mass. This paper proposes a method to improve the estimation of flammable mass. The UKOOA Ignition model developed by the Energy Institute London is used to estimate the flammable mass; and is modified to account for the effect of mitigation measures on release rate. A directional probability for wind is also added to the model. The proposed model takes into consideration the platform geometry and offshore conditions for each scenario, release location and direction, and wind direction. An offshore production platform with three deck levels is presented as an example case. The flammable mass is also computed using CFD and the results are compared to that of the proposed and the conventional methods. The results show that the flammable masses for selected scenarios are better estimated by the proposed method, being much lower than estimated by the conventional method, though larger than the CFD results. This paper presents an interim result of a project undertaken to improve QRA studies for VCE events.     

Performance of slippery and slip-resistant footwear in different wintry weather conditions measured in situ

In Finland about 70,000 people are annually injured in pedestrian and bicycle falling accidents occurred at the street, walkways and courtyards. Around 2/3 of these occur when the walking surface is covered by ice or snow. In general, slipping is caused by both environmental and human factors. The primary environmental factor behind slipping accidents is slip resistance characteristics of underfoot surface. Especially in winter slipping accidents are mainly due to inadequate friction between footwear and underfoot surfaces. Portable devices measuring friction, i.e. slipmeters, may be used for assessing slipperiness on different walking surfaces in situ. During winter seasons 2003 and 2004 a study was performed to evaluate the usability of portable slip simulator for measuring slipperiness of walkways on varying weather conditions and to assess slip resistance of different footwear. The Portable Slip Simulator proved to be applicable for measuring in situ the slipperiness of wintry walking surfaces and evaluating quality of winter maintenance. Significant differences in traction between footwear were found especially in normal Finnish climate winter days when friction provided by slip-resistant footwear was multifold compared to a poorer one. On very slippery icy surfaces no footwear provided enough grip and, therefore, in such conditions anti-slip devices should be used.     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

Comparing two methods of data collection for walkway friction measurements with a portable slip meter and a force platform

The objective was to investigate how two distinct data collection procedures, raw coefficient of friction (COF) data versus averaged COF data, may affect the outcome and interpretation of statistical analysis of friction tests and thus the reliability of slip resistance assessments. A prototype portable slip meter (PSM) and a force platform (FP) were used for evaluating floor friction transients over contaminated surfaces. A one-way ANOVA was performed to estimate significant differences between the PSM and the FP using raw COF data (55 measurement points) and averaged COF data (five measurement points) respectively. For comparing the FP with the portable slip meter, the best approach is to use averaged friction data. When the portable slip meter is used independently for walkway friction measurement, either the averaged or the raw data can be used to present the test results. However, the larger sample size is always the preferred choice.     

Objective and subjective measurements of slipperiness in fast-food restaurants in the USA and their comparison with the previous results obtained in Taiwan

Floor slipperiness is a critical issue in slip and fall incidents which are a major source of occupational injuries. The objectives of the current study were to investigate if the protocols used in a field study conducted in Taiwan could be used in similar environments in the USA and whether consistent results could be obtained. Protocols used in the field study to investigate floor slipperiness in western-style fast-food restaurants in Taiwan included both objective and subjective measurements. Using the same methods as in Taiwan, friction was measured on tiles in six major working areas of 10 fast-food kitchens in the USA as an objective measurement of slipperiness, while the subjective measurement was employees’ ratings of floor slipperiness over the same areas. The Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation coefficients in the USA between the averaged friction coefficients and subjective ratings for all 60 evaluated areas across 10 restaurants were 0.33 (p = 0.01) and 0.36 (p = 0.005), respectively, which were lower than the correlations of 0.49 and 0.45, respectively, obtained in Taiwan. Cultural differences, the amount of water on the floors in the sink areas and the existence of a slip resistant shoe program in one country might be contributors to the lower correlation coefficients in the USA. However, the current study confirmed the results obtained in Taiwan that average friction coefficient and perception values are in fair agreement, suggesting that both might be reasonably good indicators of slipperiness.     

Estimation of chemical concentration due to fugitive emissions during chemical process design

Fugitive emissions are not an environmental concern alone, but are also a health concern. From occupational health standpoint, fugitive emissions are the main sources of origin of the continuous exposure to workers. Operating plants regularly measure release and concentration levels through a plant-monitoring program. However, for processes which are still ‘on paper’, predictive estimation methods are required. Therefore, three methods for estimating concentration of the fugitive emissions are presented for the process development and design phases of petrochemical processes. The methods estimate the fugitive emission rates and plant plot dimensions resulting to fugitive emission concentrations. The methods were developed for the type and amount of information available in three process design stages; conceptual design, preliminary process design, and detailed process design. The methods are applied on a real benzene plant; the estimated benzene concentrations are compared to the actual concentration measured at the plant. The results show that as the information mounts up during design, the concentration estimate becomes more accurate. The results indicate that the methods presented provide simple estimates of fugitive emission-based concentrations during the design stages.     

Quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios in complex industrial areas

Since the late 80s the application of quantitative risk assessment to the issue of land-use planning with respect to major accident hazards emerged as a topic to be addressed within the safety assessment of chemical and process plants. However, in the case of industrial clusters or complex industrial areas specific methodologies are needed to deal with high-impact low-probability (HILP) events. In the present study, innovative methodologies developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino and NaTech scenarios are presented. In recent years a set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability were developed. A specific effort was dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability in these accident scenarios. In the present study, the application of these models to case-studies was analyzed. The results of the improved models obtained for NaTech quantitative assessment were compared to previous results in the literature. A specific innovative approach was developed to multi-level quantitative assessment of domino scenarios, and its potential was analyzed. The results were examined also evidencing the role and the progress with respect to the pioneering work started on these topics by Franco Foraboschi.     

The crash severity impacts of fixed roadside objects

INTRODUCTION: This study analyzes the in-service performance of roadside hardware on the entire urban State Route system in Washington State by developing multivariate statistical models of injury severity in fixed-object crashes using discrete outcome theory. The objective is to provide deeper insight into significant factors that affect crash severities involving fixed roadside objects, through improved statistical efficiency along with disaggregate and multivariate analysis. METHOD: The developed models are multivariate nested logit models of injury severity and they are estimated with statistical efficiency using the method of full information maximum likelihood. RESULTS: The results show that leading ends of guardrails and bridge rails, along with large wooden poles (e.g. trees and utility poles) increase the probability of fatal injury. The face of guardrails is associated with a reduction in the probability of evident injury, and concrete barriers are shown to be associated with a higher probability of lower severities. Other variables included driver characteristics, which showed expected results, validating the model. For example, driving over the speed limit and driving under the influence of alcohol increase the probability of fatal accidents. Drivers that do not use seatbelts are associated with an increase in the probability of more severe injuries, even when an airbag is activated. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The presented models show the contribution of guardrail leading ends toward fatal injuries. It is therefore important to use well-designed leading ends and to upgrade badly performing leading ends on guardrails and bridges. The models also indicate the importance of protecting vehicles from crashes with rigid poles and tree stumps, as these are linked with greater severities and fatalities.     

化工储罐间距和体积对爆炸碎片多米诺效应概率的影响

化工储罐爆炸后将产生大量碎片,这些抛射碎片一旦击中相邻罐体容易引发多米诺效应。碎片的抛射方位和抛射距离具有很大的随机性,已有研究多采用概率模型来描述碎片抛射的各分过程。通过总结和发展已有的分过程模型,建立了求取多米诺效应的综合概率模型,并基于蒙特卡罗算法编制了模拟软件,可对化工储罐多米诺效应的发生概率进行预测计算。选取若干常用化工球罐为相邻目标储罐进行实例分析,计算结果表明储罐间距和体积是影响多米诺效应发生概率的两个重要影响因素：随着距离的增大,多米诺效应发生概率不断减小;目标储罐体积越大,多米诺效应发生概率将越大。其中,爆炸碎片对目标储罐的击中概率受上述因素的影响程度更大。该文工作对化工储罐区的安全评价具有一定的参考价值。     

Development of an objective determination of a slip with a portable inclineable articulated strut slip tester (PIAST)

A portable inclineable articulated strut slip tester (PIAST) is a slipmeter that is widely used in the USA to measure coefficient of friction (COF) at the shoe sole and floor interface. A determination of a slip at the measurement interface, which is currently judged subjectively by operators, plays a crucial role in deciding the outcomes of a PIAST measurement. The goal of this study was to develop an objective determination of a slip based on the movement of the weight used by the slipmeter. The displacement of the weight and the time duration of consecutive strikes in a measurement were used to derive the objective slip criterion. Various footwear materials, floor materials and surface conditions were used to cover a wide range of COF values. The results of the regression analysis indicated that the objective COF predicted by the method developed in the current study was significant (R² = 0.997, β = 0.991, p < 0.001) in predicting the subjective COF determined by the operator.     

An Investigation of Stress Level and Human Reliability Analysis of Two Security Companies in Taiwan

This article presents the results of an evaluation and comparison study of three subjective techniques for determining human reliability under stress for work performed at two Taiwanese security companies. Stress levels at security companies were estimated by using the Unified Tri-service Cognitive Performance Assessment Battery and 40 participants from two similar-sized companies. Experiment results (memory searching task and mathematical processing task) indicated that the participants were under high levels of stress. Three subjective techniques (Success Likelihood Index Method, Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction, and Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique) for estimating human error probability were evaluated and compared by using 20 experts for six tasks. The comparison criteria are interjudge consistency and accuracy. Of the three human error probability tests studied, the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction and Success Likelihood Index Method were more consistent than the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique. The same relationship occurred in the comparison of accuracy. Thus, the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique may need to be modified in some way if it is to be useful. It was already known that this technique required modifications in error-producing conditions and nominal human unreliability. Our work presents additional evidence to substantiate this.     

Uncertainty analysis in the nuclear industry: Analytical unavailability modelling incorporating ageing of safety components

There is a growing interest in analyzing the possibility for current nuclear power plants operation extension. In that sense, life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged.This paper deals with uncertainty analysis associated with specific ageing rates database. The analysis is conducted using an analytical unavailability model applied for a selected safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the immense uncertainty associated to the component ageing data sets as well as the lack of the very data in general, which would correspond to the more detailed modelling of ageing.New probability distributions, encompassing the ageing rates available in the considered data set, are suggested. The obtained results indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the considered ageing data set, given the inherently assigned probability distribution, influences the performed unavailability calculations. Additionally, comparative analysis regarding the insights gained out of the application of the suggested probability distributions is conducted.     

A comparison of required coefficient of friction for both feet in level walking

The required coefficient of friction (RCOF) is one of the critical elements in determining whether a slip incident might occur. Most researchers, when measuring RCOF, do not differentiate between the two feet of the same participant under the same walking condition. Results from a recent study (Chang et al., 2010) indicated that the stochastic distributions of the RCOF of both feet were different in 76% of the cases. Using the previous data (Chang et al., 2010), this paper presents a comparison of the RCOF for both feet of 50 participants under four level walking conditions resulting from two footwear types and two walking speeds using a t-test, commonly used by safety professionals to compare two pools of data. The current results indicated that 78% of the RCOF data showed a statistically significant difference between the RCOF from two feet for the same participant under each walking condition. The results of the logistic regression analysis used to identify factors that contributed to the outcome of the t-test indicated that the walking speed was the only factor with a statistical significance (p = 0.044).     

单侧接触埋置结构与瞬态SH波的动力相互作用——时域边界元分析

应用时域边界元法 ,研究了单侧接触埋置结构与瞬态SH液 (剪切横波 )的动力相互作用 ,当入射SH波足够强时 ,界面会出现局部滑移并假设摩擦遵守库仓定理。笔者从实际情况出发 ,提出了新的数学模型和计算方法 ,计算了埋置矩形结构与瞬态SH波的动力相互作用问题 ,由于对此类问题的深入研究 ,为评估和预测埋置结构在动荷载下的安全性及疲劳寿命提供了重要的理论价值     

Heel contact dynamics during slip events on level and inclined surfaces

This study describes heel contact dynamics during slip events, information that must be known to develop biomechanically relevant shoe-floor coefficient of friction measurement systems. Sixteen subjects walked on a level, 5 and 10° ramp with two possible contaminants (dry, oil). Foot motion was recorded at 350 Hz and compared among no-slip, slip-recovery and slip-fall events. For all trials, the foot rotated to foot-flat, even during slip and fall trials. Heel sliding patterns recorded upon and shortly after heel contact were similar for all conditions. Slip distances, sliding velocities and heel acceleration profiles varied across trials. During the fall trials, the slipping motion of the foot was found to decelerate approximately 200 to 300 ms into stance before accelerating again, eventually leading to the fall. This deceleration was believed to be an attempt by the subject to recover from the slip. Recovery attempts on inclined surfaces were less successful than on level floors. In general, the slip distance and peak forward sliding velocity associated with fall trials were greater than or equal to 10 cm and 0.8 m/s, respectively. These complex motions at the shoe-floor interface during slipping should be taken into account for improving slip resistance measurement systems.     

Autonomous emergency braking systems adapted to snowy road conditions improve drivers' perceived safety and trust

Objective: This study investigated drivers' evaluation of a conventional autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system on high and reduced tire–road friction and compared these results to those of an AEB system adaptive to the reduced tire–road friction by earlier braking. Current automated systems such as the AEB do not adapt the vehicle control strategy to the road friction; for example, on snowy roads. Because winter precipitation is associated with a 19% increase in traffic crashes and a 13% increase in injuries compared to dry conditions, the potential of conventional AEB to prevent collisions could be significantly improved by including friction in the control algorithm. Whereas adaption is not legally required for a conventional AEB system, higher automated functions will have to adapt to the current tire–road friction because human drivers will not be required to monitor the driving environment at all times. For automated driving functions to be used, high levels of perceived safety and trust of occupants have to be reached with new systems. The application case of an AEB is used to investigate drivers' evaluation depending on the road condition in order to gain knowledge for the design of future driving functions.

Methods: In a driving simulator, the conventional, nonadaptive AEB was evaluated on dry roads with high friction (μ = 1) and on snowy roads with reduced friction (μ = 0.3). In addition, an AEB system adapted to road friction was designed for this study and compared with the conventional AEB on snowy roads with reduced friction. Ninety-six drivers (48 males, 48 females) assigned to 5 age groups (20–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, and 60–75 years) drove with AEB in the simulator. The drivers observed and evaluated the AEB's braking actions in response to an imminent rear-end collision at an intersection.

Results: The results show that drivers' safety and trust in the conventional AEB were significantly lower on snowy roads, and the nonadaptive autonomous braking strategy was considered less appropriate on snowy roads compared to dry roads. As expected, the adaptive AEB braking strategy was considered more appropriate for snowy roads than the nonadaptive strategy. In conditions of reduced friction, drivers' subjective safety and trust were significantly improved when driving with the adaptive AEB compared to the conventional AEB. Women felt less safe than men when AEB was braking. Differences between age groups were not of statistical significance.

Conclusions: Drivers notice the adaptation of the autonomous braking strategy on snowy roads with reduced friction. On snowy roads, they feel safer and trust the adaptive system more than the nonadaptive automation.     

Slip Resistance of Industrial Floor Surfaces: Development of an Elastomer Suited to In-Situ Measurement

Slips contribute to 12% of occupational accidents. A slip resistant floor is a mean to prevent slipping accidents occurring in workshops. Floor slip resistance is often evaluated by measuring a friction index, proportional to the force opposing slipping of a reference elastomer on the floor surface under test. When implementing a portable appliance, slip resistance measurements carried out on lubricated floors were not stabilized. The authors advanced the hypothesis of oil impregnating the elastomer. A new elastomer suited to in-situ measurement has been developed to achieve stable measuring conditions. This study highlights the fact that the nature and characteristics of a reference elastomer must be specified when slip resistance measurements are carried out.