Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.     

Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages

Within the changing fire regimes of Portugal, the relative importance of humans and climatic variability for regional fire statistics remains poorly understood. This work investigates the statistical relationship between temporal dynamics of fire events in Portugal and a set of socioeconomic, landscape, and climatic variables for the time periods of 1980–1990, 1991–2000, and extreme fires years. For 10 of 15 districts, it was possible to observe moderate shifts in the significance of fire drivers for the first two decadal periods. For others, pronounced changes of the significance of fire drivers were found across time. Results point toward a dynamic (perhaps highly non-linear) behavior of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers, especially during the occurrence of extreme fire years of 2003 and 2005. At country level, population density alone explained 42% of the inter-annual and inter-district deviance in number of fires. At the same temporal and spatial scale, the explanatory power of temperature anomalies proved to explain 43% of area burnt. We highlight the necessity of including a broad set of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers in order to account for potential significance shifts. In addition, although climate does trigger broad favorable fire conditions across Portugal mainland, socioeconomic and landscape factors proved to determine much of the complex fire patterns at a subnational scale.     

Mapping fire behaviour under changing climate in a Mediterranean landscape in Greece

Understanding how future climate periods influence fire behaviour is important for organizing fire suppression strategy and management. The meteorological factors are the most critical parameters affecting fire behaviour in natural landscapes; hence, predicting climate change effects on fire behaviour could be an option for optimizing firefighting resource management. In this study, we assessed climate change impacts on fire behaviour parameters (rate of fire growth, rate of spread and fireline intensity) for a typical Mediterranean landscape of Greece. We applied the minimum travel time fire simulation algorithm by using the FlamMap software to characterize potential response of fire behaviour for three summer periods. The results consisted of simulated spatially explicit fire behaviour parameters of the present climate (2000) and three future summer periods of 2050, 2070 and 2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Statistical significant differences in simulation outputs among the four examined periods were obtained by using the Tukey’s significance test. Statistical significant differences were mainly obtained for 2100 compared to the present climate due to the significant projected increase in the wind speed by the end of the century. The analysis and the conclusions of the study can be important inputs for fire suppression strategy and fire management (deployment of fire suppression resources, firefighter safety and exposure, transportation logistics) quantifying the effect that the expected future climate periods can have on fire suppression difficulty in Mediterranean landscapes.     

Modelling spatial variability using soil profiles in the Riverland of South Australia.

The soils of the Riverland vary significantly throughout the region. Soils from a vineyard near Loxton, whilst having only half the topsoil depth of two near Waikerie, are comparable in water-holding capacity because the soils are less sandy. Topographic difference can cause an additional variation between areas in the same neighbourhood. Highland soils typically develop a dune swale topography that gives rise to anisotropic semivariograms. First slope soils on the other hand give isotropic semivariograms. Semivariograms for topsoil depth and readily available water (RAW) for the three vineyards are used in the calculation of the efficiency of the sampling grids employed to gain an understanding of the soils. Kriging variance values have been calculated for 1, 2, 3 and 4 hectare square irrigation valve areas (IVAs) using the industry standard grid 75 x 75 m as well as grids 50 x 50 m and 100 x 100 m. Choice of the appropriate sampling grid to achieve a specified accuracy can thus be made.     

Holocene fire history from the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area, New South Wales, Australia: the climate, humans and fire nexus

This study presents a reconstruction of the fire activity of the last ~14,200 cal. years BP (before AD 1950) from Gooches Crater Right, located on the Newnes Plateau, approximately 150 km to the west of Sydney (~33°27′S, 150°16′E) within the Blue Mountains National Park. Charcoal analysis and palynology were undertaken with the aim of untangling any inter-relationship between climate, humans and fire. A chronology of the site was provided by radiocarbon dating. The dominant control on fire in this environment during the Holocene appears to be climate. Periods of climate change, identified in previous studies, are associated with higher levels of fire activity. Fire was less ubiquitous between ~9,000 and 6,000 years BP, a period normally described as having a higher effective moisture in south-eastern Australia. The mid-Holocene fluctuations in charcoal may reflect anthropogenic fire, climate forcing or alternatively human responses to any climate change. Coeval changes in palaeoclimatic sequences elsewhere and palynology at the site support a climatic explanation or that Aboriginal people used fire within a climatic framework.     

Distribution of persistent organic pollutants, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and trace elements in soil and vegetation following a large scale landfill fire in northern Greece

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), including hexaclorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and DDTs, as well as trace elements were determined in soil and vegetation samples collected from the surrounding area of the landfill "Tagarades", the biggest in northern Greece, following a large scale fire involving approximately 50,000 tons of municipal waste. High concentrations of total PAHs, PCBs and heavy metals were found inside the landfill (1475 microg kg(-1) dw, 399 microg kg(-1) dw and 29.8 mg kg(-1) dw, respectively), whereas concentrations in the surrounding soils were by far lower ranging between 11.2-28.1 microg kg(-1) dw for PAHs, 4.02-11.2 microg kg(-1) dw for PCBs and 575-1207 mg kg(-1) dw for heavy metals. The distribution of HCHs and DDTs were quite different since certain soils exhibited equal or higher concentrations than the landfill. In vegetation, the concentrations of PAHs, PCBs, HCHs and DDTs ranged from 14.1-34.7, 3.64-25.9, 1.41-32.1 and 0.61-4.03 microg kg(-1) dw, respectively, while those of heavy metals from 81 to 159 mg kg(-1) dw. The results of the study indicated soil and vegetation pollution levels in the surroundings of the landfill comparable to those reported for other Greek locations. The impact from the landfill fire was not evident partially due to the presence of recent and past inputs from other activities (agriculture, vehicular transport, earlier landfill fires).     

Long-term studies on transfer of 137Cs from soil to vegetation and to grazing lambs in a mountain area in northern Sweden

Studies were made during 1990-1997 on the transfer of 137Cs from soil to vegetation (herbage) and to grazing lambs on a mountain farm with an uncultivated grazing area of about 10 km2. The farm is situated in an area in Northern Sweden which was contaminated by the Chernobyl fallout in 1986. The mean concentration of 137Cs in the soil to a depth of 10 cm for eight sampling sites observed in the 8-year period was 14.51 kBq/m2, while in the cut herbage the average concentration was 859 Bq/kg d.w. and in lamb meat 682 Bq/kg w.w. A slow vertical migration of 137Cs in the 0-10 cm soil layer was indicated. Although the 137Cs concentration in herbage gradually decreased, the concentration in lamb meat varied from year to year. Soil ingestion by the lambs as a pathway for activity transfer was shown to be negligible, while ingestion of fungi with high concentrations of 137Cs was demonstrated to occur, as large numbers of fungi spores were counted in samples of the lambs' faeces. Fungi ingestion might therefore partly explain the varying mean yearly 137Cs concentrations in lamb muscle. The mean transfer parameters were as follows: for "soil to herbage" 61.3 Bq/kg d.w. herbage per kBq/m2 soil, for "herbage to lamb meat" 0.81 Bq/kg w.w. meat per Bq/kg d.w. herbage, and for "soil to lamb meat" 47.1 Bq/kg w.w. meat per kBq/m2 soil. A trend of decreasing values of the transfer parameter for "soil to herbage" indicated that 137Cs was becoming less available for root-uptake with time. The effective ecological half-life of 137Cs in soil, herbage and lamb meat was calculated to be 19, 7 and 16 years, respectively. It can be concluded that natural areas are vulnerable to 137Cs contamination, resulting in high concentrations in plants, fungi and lamb meat for a long time.     

Decline of woody vegetation in a saline landscape in the Groundnut Basin,Senegal

Several studies have documented that vegetation in the Sahel is highly dynamic and is affected by the prevailing climatic conditions, as well as by human use of the areas. However, little is known about vegetation dynamics in the large saline areas bordering the rivers of West Africa. Combining satellite imagery, the perception of local people and botanical information, this study investigated the vegetation dynamics and the drivers of vegetation changes in Fatick Province, Senegal. Satellite images showed a change in vegetation composition, i.e., a loss of tree cover and an increase in shrub cover, herbaceous cover and tans (highly saline areas with sparse vegetation). Although the trend was the same, the three villages had different vegetation histories. A survey of the woody vegetation showed that shrubs and young trees were dominating with relatively few large trees. Local people perceived a general decline of woody plants from 1993 to 2013. Among 60 species mentioned by local people, 90 % were declining and 10 % increasing. Together the three methods documented a decrease in density and diversity of the woody vegetation, mainly influenced by salinity and land use. The large numbers of young trees indicate a potential for regeneration of some, but not all, tree species. As many tree species appreciated by local people were reported to be declining, local communities have experienced a reduction of their natural resources. Based on villagers’ recommendations for improved vegetation management, we discuss possible contributions including reforestation, desalinization and environmental protection for restoration of the vegetation.     

Assessing the sustainability of agriculture: a case of Mae Chaem Catchment, northern Thailand.

Sustainability is not a new concept but rather a prominent concept at the present time. Researchers have categorized sustainability indicators into economic, social, and ecological aspects. Sustainability of agriculture in the context of development efforts has to meet production efficiency, resilience of ecosystems, appropriate technology, maintenance of the environment, cultural diversity, and satisfaction of the basic needs. The research objective of this study is to determine the critical indicators of agricultural sustainability in the Mae Chaem Catchment, northern Thailand. In assessing sustainability, the authors applied the sustainability indicator analysis developed by FAO. The results of the study show that food sufficiency in the Wat Chan subcatchment is the most sustainable aspect of agriculture. The least sustainable facets of agriculture in the Wat Chan subcatchment are land holding size, land tenure, and water shortage. While expansion of agricultural land in the watershed area is not legally permitted, a practice of agroforestry is recommended. Insecure land tenure may result in reduced incentives to improve land productivity. Thus, official recognition of land ownership is required. As the problem of water shortage is most critical in the lower reaches, increased participation in the allocation scheme by downstream villagers should be encouraged. Finally, the construction of a small-scale water storage in the lower part of the catchment to increase water supply should be considered.     

Land-cover changes in and around a National Park in a mountain landscape in the Pyrenees

The current state of Mediterranean mountain areas has been driven by two main factors: intense traditional human activity and the dynamics of the ecosystem itself. In this study, we examine land-cover changes in a National Park in the Pyrenees mountains (NE Iberian Peninsula), which was designated a protected area 55 years ago. First, we have analyzed spatio-temporal changes in land-cover pattern and forest dynamics from 1957 to 2005. During this period, land-cover dynamics consisted of two main processes: (i) expansion of the forest area and (ii) increasing cover of forests already present in 1957. To analyze the role of the conservation level of the park, we have also compared the results obtained within the park with those of unprotected, peripheral areas. In the two areas with different protection level, dense forests increased throughout the period because of the reduction in forestry activities. The peripheral area showed a higher rate of forest-cover change from 1957 to 2005 compared to the National Park. This higher increase in forest cover in the peripheral area could be related to a higher proportion in the National Park of screes and rocky areas and to the decline and transformation of forest activities in these peripheral, lower elevation areas.     

The association between organochlorine and thyroid hormone levels in cord serum: a study from northern Thailand

It is now known that many organochlorines (OCs) act as endocrine disruptors, causing harmful effects on wildlife and humans. Several field and laboratory animal studies have reported that OCs cause adverse effects on thyroid hormone status. However, data regarding their effects on thyroid hormone status in humans are inconclusive. Because a developing fetus is especially sensitive to hormonal disruption by exposure to OCs, the adverse health effects on infants are of concern. The present study aimed to investigate the association between OC levels in maternal and cord serum, and the association between OC and thyroid hormone levels in cord serum. The study was performed with 39 mother-infant pairs from Mae Rim District of Chiang Mai Province, northern Thailand, who had normal delivery and full term gestation. Maternal blood was collected for measuring OCs and total lipids. Umbilical cord blood was collected for measuring OCs, total lipids, and thyroid hormones, including total thyroxine (TT(4)), free thyroxine (FT(4)), and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH). 1,1-dichloro-2,2-di(4-chlorophenyl)ethylene (p,p'-DDE) had the highest level in all serum samples with a geometric mean of 1,191 ng/g lipids in maternal serum and 742 ng/g lipids in cord serum. The second highest level was that for 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-di(4-chlorophenyl)ethane (p,p'-DDT), followed by 1,1-dichloro-2,2-di(4-chlorophenyl)ethane (p,p'-DDD). Levels of p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, and dieldrin in maternal serum were positively associated with levels in cord serum (r = 0.86, 0.77, 0.66, and 0.60, respectively; P<0.001). The important findings were that cord serum TT(4) levels were negatively associated with cord serum levels of p,p'-DDE (r = -0.37, P = 0.024), p,p'-DDT.3 (r = -0.33, P = 0.048), and 1,1-dichloro-2-(2-chlorophenyl)-2-(4-chlorophenyl)ethylene (o,p'-DDE) (r = -0.76, P = 0.019). These results therefore suggest that exposure to DDT and its metabolites during fetal development may cause some effects on thyroid hormonal status in infants.     

Relationships between habitat quality and ecological properties across Ziarat Basin in northern Iran

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study aimed to examine the relationships between habitat quality and ecological properties including land use, elevation, slope, and soil...     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 1. The influence of grazing behaviour and environmental variability on daily intake

Sea water contaminated with diluted radioactive effluent originating from the Sellafield reprocessing plant inundates saltmarshes in the Esk estuary in west Cumbria (UK). Much of the radioactivity on the saltmarsh vegetation was found to be associated with a surface deposit of silt, brought onto the area during tidal inundation. Large temporal variations in the radionuclide concentrations of the vegetation were found, these being due probably to seasonal fluctuation in the extent of silt deposition.The grazing habits of sheep were studied on one of these saltmarshes and the consequent ingestion of radionuclides by the sheep was estimated. The sheep ingested different quantities of radionuclides according to time of year as a result of a combination of two factors; the considerable temporal variation in the concentration of radionuclides on the saltmarsh vegetation and the seasonal grazing behaviour of the sheep.     

Economic Modelling in Sustainability Science: Issues,Methodology, and Implications

Sustainability science is a new branch of human knowledge. It is necessary to model sustainability science based on a framework consisting of the interactions of society, ecology, the environment and the economy. This paper develops such a model, the SEEOSG model, containing the essential structural relationships that incorporate the environmental and economic conditions required for sustainability. The model is solved as a dynamic optimisation problem. This optimal growth model of ecology and economic growth enables us also to analyse the issues which are specific to sustainability science such as the ecologically sustainability and inter-generational equity implications of economic activities and policies. In the model results growth maximisation goals appear to be fraught with difficulties such as infeasibility and non-sustainability. The results also suggest also that an equilibrium ecological and economic system does not sustain over a very long period of time unless appropriate actions are taken. Readers should send thier comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Soil-water distribution coefficients and plant transfer factors for (134)Cs, (85)Sr and (65)Zn under field conditions in tropical Australia

Measurements of soil-to-plant transfer of (134)Cs, (85)Sr and (65)Zn from two tropical red earth soils ('Blain' and 'Tippera') to sorghum and mung crops have been undertaken in the north of Australia. The aim of the study was to identify factors that control bioaccumulation of these radionuclides in tropical regions, for which few previous data are available. Batch sorption experiments were conducted to determine the distribution coefficient (K(d)) of the selected radionuclides at pH values similar to natural pH values, which ranged from about 5.5 to 6.7. In addition, K(d) values were obtained at one pH unit above and below the soil-water equilibrium pH values to determine the effect of pH. The adsorption of Cs showed no pH dependence, but the K(d) values for the Tippera soils (2300-4100 ml/g) exceeded those for the Blain soils (800-1200 ml/g) at equilibrium pH. This was related to the greater clay content of the Tippera soil. Both Sr and Zn were more strongly adsorbed at higher pH values, but the K(d) values showed less dependence on the soil type. Strontium K(d)s were 30-60 ml/g whilst Zn ranged from 160 to 1630 ml/g for the two soils at equilibrium pH. With the possible exception of Sr, there was no evidence for downward movement of radionuclides through the soils during the course of the growing season. There was some evidence of surface movement of labelled soil particles. Soil-to-plant transfer factors varied slightly between the soils. The average results for sorghum were 0.1-0.3 g/g for Cs, 0.4-0.8 g/g for Sr and 18-26 g/g for Zn (dry weight) with the initial values relating to Blain and the following values to Tippera. Similar values were observed for the mung bean samples. The transfer factors for Cs and Sr were not substantially different from the typical values observed in temperate studies. However, Zn transfer factors for plants grown on both these tropical soils were greater than for soils in temperate climates (by more than an order of magnitude). This may be related to trace nutrient deficiency and/or the growth of fungal populations in these soils. The results indicate that transfer factors depend on climatic region together with soil type and chemistry and underline the value of specific bioaccumulation data for radionuclides in tropical soils.     

后疫情时期的经济复苏与绿色发展:对立还是共赢

后疫情时期的大规模经济刺激计划引发了人们对绿色发展可能让位于经济复苏的担忧。尽管“绿色复苏”得到国内外广泛的呼吁和支持,但绿色是否意味着经济的妥协?绿色复苏可能面临怎样的挑战?这些问题的考量,对我国科学部署经济发展战略、完善顶层政策设计至关重要。基于疫情暴发以来的出行大数据、防疫管控措施等最新信息,构建细化经济复苏过程的全球疫情自适应模型,量化模拟不同复苏方案对经济、就业的拉动效应和碳排放影响。研究发现:以发展清洁能源和数字经济为主的绿色复苏方案对经济体量的拉动效应等同,甚至超过以化石能源和重工业为主的传统经济刺激方案;但前者面临的劳动力转型挑战可能拖慢经济复苏的进程。“绿色复苏”方案对我国经济体量的拉动效应比传统刺激方案高0.3%~14.8%,创造就业岗位数量变化-4%~3%,但同时需要近1亿人(约为初始就业人口总量的13%)跨行业就业,其中受疫情影响较大的中、低技能劳动者占96%以上。跨行业就业门槛和劳动者技能瓶颈可能增加劳动力流转匹配的时间成本,甚至带来“结构性失业”问题和社会不平等加剧的次生伤害。认为:经济复苏与绿色发展本质上不是对立的单选题,而是存在共赢的可能性。对“绿色复苏”在经济、就业和环境三方面正向协同效益的边界条件应有清醒认识和把握,仅仅关注经济拉动效应和创造就业岗位总量的潜在效益而忽视实现该理论效益的现实条件,可能会造成对经济刺激方案选择的误判。加强劳动力市场的灵活性、推动社会公正转型是提升经济系统韧性、实现复苏与绿色共赢的前瞻性举措。     

Distributions of zinc, copper, cadmium and lead in a tropical ultisol after long-term disposal of sewage sludge

Heavy metals present in soils constitute serious environmental hazards from the point of view of polluting the soils and adjoining streams and rivers. The distribution of heavy metals in a sandy Ultisol (Arenic Kandiustult) in south eastern Nigeria subjected to 40 years disposal of sewage wastes (sludge and effluents) was studied using two profile pits (S/NSK/1 and S/NSK/2) sited in the sewage disposal area and one profile pit (NS/NSK) sited in the non-sewage disposal area. Soil samples were collected in duplicate from these soil horizons and analyzed for their heavy metal contents. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cu, Cd and Pb in the top- and sub-soil horizons of sewage soil were 79.3, 32, 0.29 and 1.15 mg/kg, respectively. These levels were high enough to constitute health and phytotoxic risks. All the metal levels were much higher in the AB horizon in the sewage than in the non-sewage soil profile, but Pb and Cu contents were also high down to the Bt1 horizon, indicating their apparent relatively high mobility in this soil. There was a significant correlation between organic matter (OM) and Zn (r=0.818**), and between OM and Cd (0.864**) in the sewage soil. The high OM status of the sewage sludge, together with its corresponding low pH, might have favoured metal-OM complexation that could reduce heavy metal mobility and phytotoxicity in this soil.     

Modelling the joint effects of a metal and a pesticide on reproduction and toxicokinetics in Lumbricid earthworms

It is important to understand the aetiology of interactive mixtures effects (i.e. synergism and antagonism) if results from known cases are to be extrapolated to untested combinations. The key role of toxicokinetics in determining internal concentrations at target sites means that understanding chemical uptake in mixtures is an essential requirement for mechanistic understanding of interactions. In this paper, a combined approach using mixture toxicity testing, toxicokinetic studies and modelling has been used to address the link between joint toxicity and internal concentration. The study is conducted in Lumbricid earthworms with a binary mixture of a metal (nickel) and an organophosphate insecticide (chlorpyrifos) not a priori expected to show interactive toxicity. As expected from their dissimilar modes of action and detoxification, exposure to combinations of nickel and chlorpyrifos resulted in additive toxicity. Measurement of internal concentrations indicated that both chemicals were rapidly accumulated (within 3 days) to equilibrium. When exposed as a mixture, Ni uptake followed the same pattern as found for the single chemical. This was not the case for chlorpyrifos which showed a faster rate of uptake and elimination and a slightly higher equilibrium concentration in a mixture. That the difference in chlorpyrifos kinetics in the mixture did not result in interactive toxicity highlights the need to assess chemical toxicodynamics as well as toxicokinetics. Measurement of chlorpyrifos-oxon identified the presence of this toxic form but implementation of more complex approaches encompassing toxicogenomics and epigenetics are ultimately needed to resolve the toxicokinetic to toxicodynamic link for these chemicals.     

Comparison between the Chinese EIA Guidelines for Air Dispersion Modelling and the Advanced Air Dispersion Model ADMS

1 INTRODUCTION According to the Environmental Protection Law of P.R. China, and the Environmental Protection Management Method on Construction Projects the Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) (HJ/T 2.1~2. 3-93) have defined how environmental impact assessment should be carried out for construction projects, in terms of the general principle, methodology, contents and requirements. Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment on the Atmosphe…